Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook

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Lawrence Yun's presentation at the Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum at the 2013 REALTORS® Conference and Expo.

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Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook

  1. 1. Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum San Francisco, CA November 8, 2013
  2. 2. GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession (Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery) % growth from one year ago 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
  3. 3. 140000 138000 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - May U.S. Total Payroll Jobs (8 million lost … 7 million gained) In thousands 136000 134000 132000 130000 128000 126000 124000
  4. 4. States with Fast Job Growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 State North Dakota Utah Idaho Texas Colorado Minnesota Georgia Washington Arizona New Jersey Job Growth Rate 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
  5. 5. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Unemployment Rate 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  6. 6. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Employment Rate 66 64 62 60 58 56 54
  7. 7. 1990 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1998 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1976 - Jan 1974 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1970 - Jan Labor Force Participation Rate: Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women (Adults 20 years old and up) Women Men 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40
  8. 8. 2012 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2000 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1976 - Jan 1974 - Jan 140 1972 - Jan 1970 - Jan 150 Well Shy of Long Run Trend (6 to 8 million more jobs needed) In millions 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60
  9. 9. -2 -4 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q2 1982 - Q3 1983 - Q4 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q2 1987 - Q3 1988 - Q4 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q2 1992 - Q3 1993 - Q4 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q2 1997 - Q3 1998 - Q4 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q2 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q2 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2012 - Q3 Consumer Spending Growth (2% growth; not 3% or 4%) 8 6 4 2 0
  10. 10. -5 -10 -15 -20 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q3 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q3 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q3 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q3 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q3 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q3 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2013 - Q1 Business Spending Growth (3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%) 25 20 15 10 5 0
  11. 11. Monetary and Fiscal Policies
  12. 12. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) % Fed Funds 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 forecast forecast
  13. 13. 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jun 2005 - Nov 2006 - Apr 2006 - Sep 2007 - Feb 2007 - Jul 2007 - Dec 2008 - May 2008 - Oct 2009 - Mar 2009 - Aug 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jun 2010 - Nov 2011 - Apr 2011 - Sep 2012 - Feb 2012 - Jul 2012 - Dec 2013 - May Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing Total Asset Purchase $ million
  14. 14. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2013 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2009 - Jan Core 2008 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2003 - Jan Consumer Price Inflation Less than 2% (% change from one year ago) Overall
  15. 15. -1 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jun 2003 - Nov 2004 - Apr 2004 - Sep 2005 - Feb 2005 - Jul 2005 - Dec 2006 - May 2006 - Oct 2007 - Mar 2007 - Aug 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jun 2008 - Nov 2009 - Apr 2009 - Sep 2010 - Feb 2010 - Jul 2010 - Dec 2011 - May 2011 - Oct 2012 - Mar 2012 - Aug 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jun Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%) Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent 5 4 3 2 1 0
  16. 16. 2012 - Q4 2012 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2010 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2009 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2007 - Q3 2006 - Q4 2006 - Q1 2005 - Q2 2004 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2003 - Q1 2002 - Q2 2001 - Q3 2000 - Q4 75000 2000 - Q1 Household Net Worth $ billion 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000
  17. 17. 2013 - May 2012 - Dec 2012 - Jul 2012 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2011 - Apr 2010 - Nov 2010 - Jun 2010 - Jan 2009 - Aug 2009 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2008 - May 2007 - Dec 2007 - Jul 2007 - Feb 2006 - Sep 2006 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2005 - Jun 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 2005 - Jan Federal Government Spending (Stimulus … Flat … Decline) $ trillion
  18. 18. Shrinking Budget Deficit (in $billion) 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  19. 19. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 - Jan 1993 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1997 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1999 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue $ trillion Tax Revenue Govt Spending
  20. 20. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Federal Debt Held By Public (Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  21. 21. Germany • Too High Trade Surplus • No Stimulus • Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high debt from prior deficits) • Blame Germany for holding back the World Economy? • Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
  22. 22. International Sovereign Borrowing Cost Country 10-year Government Borrowing Cost Japan 0.6% Switzerland 1.1% Germany 1.7% France 2.3% Canada 2.4% U.S. 2.5% Britain 2.6% China 4.0% Spain 4.1% Italy 4.2% Russia 7.5% India 8.6% Greece 8.7% Brazil 11.6%
  23. 23. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun Consumer Confidence Now and About Future Expectations Present 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
  24. 24. Productivity and Income Doubling Productivity Growth Years for Income to Double Examples 1% 72 years U.S. today? 2% 36 years 1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash) 3% 24 years U.S. post-war to 1970 5% 14 years Asian Tigers
  25. 25. GDP Forecast 5.0 4.5 4.0 CBO 3.5 White House 3.0 Blue Chip Consensus 2.5 2.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
  26. 26. Commercial Market Activity
  27. 27. Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD billions Individual $180 Portfolio Entity $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 200% 100% 0% -100% Source: Real Capital Analytics
  28. 28. CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead Moody’s/RCA CPPI 225 Apartment CBD-Office 175 Retail 125 Sub - Office Industrial 75 '07 '08 Source: Real Capital Analytics '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
  29. 29. Spreads Remain Elevated 10yr UST* Cap Rate Spread (bps) 10% 700 9% 600 8% 500 7% 6% 400 5% 300 4% 3% 200 2% 100 1% 0% 0 '01 '02 '03 Source: Real Capital Analytics '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
  30. 30. REALTOR® Markets Deal Size 2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction > $10,000,000 $5,000,000 - $10,000,000 $2,000,000 - $5,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 2% 1% 12% 17% $500,000 - $1,000,000 $250,000 - $500,000 < $250,000 Source: NAR 26% 22% 21%
  31. 31. REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound Sales Volume (YoY % Chg) Major CRE Markets Realtor CRE Markets 200% 150% Deals > $2.5M 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
  32. 32. Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets Sales Prices (YoY % Chg) Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets Realtor CRE Markets 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
  33. 33. Small Banks Important to REALTORS® 3% 1% Current sources of financing for commercial deals National banks (“Big four”) 8% 11% Regional banks Local banks 17% Credit unions Life insurance companies REITs 18% Private investors Public companies Small Business Administration 4% 25% 6% 7% Source: NAR Other, please specify
  34. 34. SIOR Markets in Recovery SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index 160.0 Northeast Midwest South West 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 Source: SIOR, NAR
  35. 35. CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
  36. 36. Apartment Fundamentals U.S. Apartment Fundamentals 300,000 Completions Net Absorption Vac % 9.0 8.0 250,000 7.0 200,000 6.0 150,000 5.0 100,000 4.0 3.0 50,000 2.0 0 -50,000 1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  37. 37. Apartment Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $1,400 10.0 $1,200 8.0 $1,000 6.0 $800 4.0 $600 2.0 $400 0.0 $200 -2.0 $0 -4.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  38. 38. Apartment Vacancy Comparison APARTMENT Vacancy Rates 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  39. 39. Apartment Investments Billions $ Volume $40.0 2013 YTD: $45.3 B $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  40. 40. 41,000 39,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Renter Households In thousands 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000
  41. 41. 80,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow In thousands 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000
  42. 42. Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions) 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
  43. 43. Office Fundamentals U.S. Office Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 150,000,000 20.0 18.0 100,000,000 16.0 14.0 Square Feet 50,000,000 12.0 0 10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -50,000,000 -100,000,000 2013 2014 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 -150,000,000 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  44. 44. Office Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $35.00 14.0 12.0 $30.00 10.0 $25.00 8.0 6.0 $20.00 4.0 $15.00 2.0 0.0 $10.00 -2.0 $5.00 -4.0 $0.00 -6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  45. 45. Office Vacancy Comparison OFFICE Vacancy Rates 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  46. 46. Office Investments Billions $ Volume $100.0 2013 YTD: $31.5B $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  47. 47. Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New Peak 27.0 In millions 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  48. 48. Retail Fundamentals U.S. Retail Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 50,000,000 12.0 40,000,000 10.0 30,000,000 8.0 Square Feet 20,000,000 10,000,000 6.0 0 -10,000,000 -20,000,000 -30,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  49. 49. Retail Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $25.00 5.0 4.0 $20.00 3.0 2.0 $15.00 1.0 $10.00 0.0 -1.0 $5.00 -2.0 $0.00 -3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  50. 50. Retail Vacancy Comparison RETAIL Vacancy Rates 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  51. 51. Retail Investments Billions $ Volume $35.0 $30.0 2013 YTD: $23.5B $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 10.0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Source: Real Capital Analytics
  52. 52. Jobs in Retail Trade (Still Below Prior Peak) 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 In millions 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  53. 53. Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices 18% cumulative gains over 2 years $240,000 Median Existing Home Price $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  54. 54. Industrial Fundamentals U.S. Industrial Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 150,000,000 14.0 12.0 100,000,000 Square Feet 10.0 50,000,000 8.0 6.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4.0 -50,000,000 2.0 -100,000,000 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  55. 55. Industrial Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $5.00 6.0 $4.90 4.0 $4.80 2.0 $4.70 0.0 $4.60 -2.0 $4.50 $4.40 -4.0 $4.30 -6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  56. 56. Industrial Vacancy Comparison INDUSTRIAL Vacancy Rates 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  57. 57. Industrial Investments Billions $ Volume $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  58. 58. Jobs in Wholesale Trade (Still Below Prior Peak) 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 In millions 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  59. 59. 1992 - Jan 1992 - Dec 1993 - Nov 1994 - Oct 1995 - Sep 1996 - Aug 1997 - Jul 1998 - Jun 1999 - May 2000 - Apr 2001 - Mar 2002 - Feb 2003 - Jan 2003 - Dec 2004 - Nov 2005 - Oct 2006 - Sep 2007 - Aug 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jun 2010 - May 2011 - Apr 2012 - Mar 2013 - Feb U.S. International Trade Long-Term Growth Exports Imports 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
  60. 60. U.S. International Trade But No Growth in Recent Years Exports Imports 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul
  61. 61. International Dimension
  62. 62. International CRE Investment in U.S. Source: Real Capital Analytics
  63. 63. Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
  64. 64. REALTORS® Working With International Clients • In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client. – Clients Residing in Another Country: 51 Percent. – Clients Residing in this Country: 49 Percent. – A Niche Market on Buyer Side: Facility with languages and cultures very helpful. – On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
  65. 65. Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by Country Top Countries—2013 Report Shares of the Top Countries of Origin to Total Reported International Transactions Canada Mexico United Kingdom Argentina Australia Brazil Venezuela 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% *China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan 5% 5% 8% 12% 23%
  66. 66. Top State Destinations—2013 Report Florida 23% California 17% Arizona 9% Texas 9% New York 3% Virginia 3% Nevada 2% Hawaii 2% Illinois 2% Michigan 2% Georgia 2%
  67. 67. Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
  68. 68. Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
  69. 69. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan (Yuan per $) 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5
  70. 70. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun U.S. Dollar vs. Euro ($ per Euro) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8
  71. 71. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness (Broad Trade Weighted) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
  72. 72. REALTORS® Working With International Clients

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