Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever            Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya                      ...
Climate Change Impacts in Kenya                                          In 2006 and 2007, PH                             ...
Disease Early Warning Systems (DE S)                                       W                                              ...
R Contingency plans for E S in K VF                      W      enya (ongoing) Linkage with communities to monitor climat...
Kenya : Stakeholders in Climate Sensitive Diseases                                           Government                   ...
Current Research: RVF Spatiotemporal Epidemiology       Participatory Epidemiology: Ruralappraisal and Community EWS to R...
Participatory Community Sensitization    Disease surveillance Committees (Animalhealth workers ,Pastoralists , Veterinary...
R M   VF onitoring and Surveillance -Community Modele-surveillance                                                        ...
Communication tools : Risk Maps of R in K                                    VF   enya                                    ...
Further secondary data analysis for R prediction                                     VF  Precipitation and Temperature fr...
Outbreak Maps of R in K                       VF   enya –(1912-2010)                                                     ...
Climate E S Caveats in K                          W              enya  Lack of human capacity and expertise to contextual...
Target beneficiaries of climate early risk assessment     Sustainable planning and decision making tools to support thede...
Contributions to E S in K                  W      enya: Stakeholders Capacity and Networks    Zoonoses Working Group has ...
AcknowledgementsData and Financial SupportContributing Authors  Bett B, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya...
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Dr. Nanyingi_RVF (World Bank_Bellagio) Aug 2012

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Interdecadal and interannual climate variability has led to emergence and reemergence of zoonoses in Kenya. We take cognizance of a community based approach in early and timely detection of RVF is vital to veterinary, health authorities and policy-makers in immediate decision making. It contributes to an integrated climate risk assessment of livestock vulnerability analysis using climate dependent RVF model to develop predictive risk maps that will be crucial in current and future control plans of other climate sensitive diseases and possibly provide Early Warning Systems (EWS). The output will contribute to institutional contingency frameworks dealing with concepts and indicators of warning systems which will facilitate the early identification of potential climate sensitive epidemics and decision support systems.

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  • In Kenya, Livestock keepers are greatly affected by Climate Change due to higher vulnerability and low adaptive capacity Viral (RVF),Helminths,loss of adaptive capacity(trypanotolerance), Increases in heat-related mortality and morbidity , vector abundance (floods)
  • Numerous EWS tools but not tailored for Kenyan set due to technological barriers and high costs, calls for investment in ICT and infrastructure
  • RVF EWS CP -monitor the convergence of risk factors that predispose to a Rift valley fever outbreak and effectively communicate the risk for early response. surveillance system and linkages with community leaders established in the inter-epidemic period in areas at risk
  • Stakeholders are involved in consultative process with aim to disseminate information accurately, funding and policies are vital in achieving the end tools for consumption by the affected communities
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  • regional networks as tools to improve surveillance, early detection and timely diagnosis, transparency of animal disease information, rapid response to outbreaks as well as the potential use of the network approach in providing data for studies related to socio-economic surveys applicable to livestock systems
  • regional networks as tools to improve surveillance, early detection and timely diagnosis, transparency of animal disease information, rapid response to outbreaks as well as the potential use of the network approach in providing data for studies related to socio-economic surveys applicable to livestock systems
  • Dr. Nanyingi_RVF (World Bank_Bellagio) Aug 2012

    1. 1. Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya Nanyingi M O Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology University of Nairobi KENYA World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
    2. 2. Climate Change Impacts in Kenya In 2006 and 2007, PH Burden of RVF OB resulted in 3.4 DALYs per 1000 people and household costs of about Ksh 10,000 (USD120) 3%GDP loss $500M/(2012) $1-2 B(2030) 2World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
    3. 3. Disease Early Warning Systems (DE S) W MEWS (MODIS_NDVI) HEALTH MAPPER Are these tools available universally and utilized adequately?World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    4. 4. R Contingency plans for E S in K VF W enya (ongoing) Linkage with communities to monitor climatic parameters. Precipitation ,flooding and mapping of “dambos” Remote sensing and GIS data(NDVI of 0.43-0.45/ SST by 0.5 degrees )epidemic indicative Community-Based Early Warning System (CB-LEWS) DVS trains communities to capture data relevant for RVF-EW Monitoring of vector dynamics and virus activity in sentinel herds? Farmer/public awareness programmes by VeterinaryCommunications and Extension Officer. Community radios ,flyers and mobile phones for preparedness.World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    5. 5. Kenya : Stakeholders in Climate Sensitive Diseases Government Veterinary ,Public Health, Agriculture,Met Universities,Research Institutions ONE HEALTH Vulnerable Communities COORDINATIONCAPACITY BUILDINGRisk AssessmentLab DiagnosisInformation MSSimulation DISEASE CONTROLExercise Community Sentinel Surveillance  Vaccinations and Vector Control COMMUNICATION System Appraisal strategy Participatory message devt (FGD) Media Engagement(Radio, TV)World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    6. 6. Current Research: RVF Spatiotemporal Epidemiology Participatory Epidemiology: Ruralappraisal and Community EWS to RVFinvestigated. Sero-monitoring of sentinel herds andGeographical risk mapping of RVF hotspots? Trans-boundary Surveillance forsecondary foci(Neighboring country-Uganda) Disease burden analysis and predictivemodeling Decision support tools for communityutilization(Risk maps, brochures, radio andvideo clips)World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    7. 7. Participatory Community Sensitization Disease surveillance Committees (Animalhealth workers ,Pastoralists , Veterinary andPublic health officers) Community mapping of wateringPoints/Dams or “Dambos” Training of trainers(TOT) on EWS using flyers Information feedback mechanisms( Schools, Churches, village meetings) Trans-boundary security committeesWorld Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    8. 8. R M VF onitoring and Surveillance -Community Modele-surveillance Aanansen et al., 2009, Madder et al., 2012 e-surveillance and data gathering by (Mobile phones, PDA) Community sensitization/awareness by Syndromic surveillance Dissemination of Information through community vernacular radio,SMS World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    9. 9. Communication tools : Risk Maps of R in K VF enya Bett et al.,2012 Is there geographical restriction of the Diseases or Epidemiologic drifts?What other factors (confounders) are involved in endemicity of RVF?World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    10. 10. Further secondary data analysis for R prediction VF Precipitation and Temperature from the Kenya MeteorologicalDepartment/ECMWF for time series analysis (2000-2011) Sero-prevalence and inter-epidemic estimates of RVF from the DVS Disease burden analysis using demographics from Human NationalCensus (Public Health) Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Soil type cover for suitability of vectoranalysis. Process based geographical risk modeling and Linear regressionanalysis for RVF distribution (ILRI,DVS)World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    11. 11. Outbreak Maps of R in K VF enya –(1912-2010)  Response can be geographically targeted(Disease Information Systems).  Vaccine allocation and distribution is site specific(cost saving mechanism)  Secondary foci of outbreaks in semi- urban locations (Vectorial competence).  Controlled Human and Animal migration to curb the spread of climate sensitive diseases  Post Vaccination Sero-monitoring( AVID)Bett et al.,2012 World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    12. 12. Climate E S Caveats in K W enya  Lack of human capacity and expertise to contextualize climate change sensitive disease predictions and scenarios.  Dysfunctional or non existent communication channels (technological inadequacies in rural communities)  Trans-boundary armed conflicts (Pastoral cattle rustling)  Financial Constraints in Climate Change Research(Parsimony??)  Ethno-Religious Barriers and Insecurity(Al-Shabab)  Ineffective government policies on climate sensitive Diseases  Lack of efficient infrastructure(Roads, Electricity)World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    13. 13. Target beneficiaries of climate early risk assessment Sustainable planning and decision making tools to support thedevelopment of appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigationpolicies. Simulation exercises to test response to RVF epizootic and strengthenworking between veterinary, medical, and entomological sectors.World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    14. 14. Contributions to E S in K W enya: Stakeholders Capacity and Networks  Zoonoses Working Group has been established (One Health concept).-CDC  Linking expert institutions through global networks within both the animal and health sectors  Improvements in governance, infrastructure and capacity building will also prove valuable to secure the livelihoods of vulnerable populations.  Participatory approaches : Farmer Field Schools and livestock owners’ training on climate change for zoonoses preparedness and prevention.  Improved surveillance, early detection and timely diagnosis, transparency of animal disease information Rapid response to outbreaks as well as the potential use of the network approach in providing data for studies related to climate sensitive diseases .World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
    15. 15. AcknowledgementsData and Financial SupportContributing Authors  Bett B, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya  Thumbi SM, University of Edinburgh, UK Project Advisors Kiama SG, Wangari MaathaiInstitute, University of Nairobi Muchemi GM, Department ofPublic Health, Pharmacology andToxicology University of NairobiWorld Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012

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