Silver Inks Webinarfinal


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Silver Inks Webinarfinal

  1. 1. Webinar on the Markets for Silver Inks and Pastes, 2012-2019 January 5th, 2012 NanoMarkets, LC © 2012 NanoMarkets, LC
  2. 2. 2 About NanoMarkets LC• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering conventional silver and nanosilver inks and pastes markets for more than five years.• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides forecasts of silver inks and pastes in thick film electronics, PV, and emerging printed electronics (displays, etc.).• NanoMarkets’ offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world. © NanoMarkets LC
  3. 3. 3 NanoMarkets’ Recent Reports Related to Silver• Silver Inks and Pastes 2012• Nanometals 2012• Silver Powders and Flakes 2011• Nanosilver Markets 2011• Markets for Silver-Based Transparent Conductors 2011• Silver in Photovoltaics 2010• Printed Gold: Gold Ink and Paste Markets 2011 © NanoMarkets LC
  4. 4. 4 Silver’s Big Problem…EconomicsHow can suppliers of printable silver products maintain marginsand market share in a world of persistently high silver prices,with no end in sight? •Investment offtake •Q411 decline not sustainableMeanwhile, lingering sluggishness in the global economy keepsindustrial demand for silver lower than it might otherwise be The Bottom Line: NanoMarkets predicts a decline in global silver inks and paste consumption… © NanoMarkets LC
  5. 5. 5 Silver Inks and Pastes 2012-2019 By Application ($ Millions)$7.6 B 8000 $6.8 B 7000 Traditional Thick Film 6000 Sensors 5000 RFIDs OLED Lighting 4000 PDPs 3000 Photovoltaics 2000 Two applications 1000 dominate the 0 market! 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets LC
  6. 6. 6 Average Ink and Paste Prices ($/Troy Oz Silver) ~12x500450400350300250 ~3x200 ~2.4x150 ~1.7x100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Average Silver Commodity Price Average Conventional Silver Ink/Paste Price Average Nanosilver Ink/Paste Price © NanoMarkets LC
  7. 7. 7 A Brief History of the Silver Pastes MarketFirst, a look back at the silver inks and pastes market:This industry has had a very good run over the last 50 years• Post WWII electronics• Computer revolution• c-Si PV © NanoMarkets LC
  8. 8. 8 Why Do We Predict a Decline in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market?• The two big applications still dominate the market, but will face difficulty in the next couple of years – Problems in the PV sector – Thick film are cost sensitive – PDPs are in decline• Alternatives may now have a sustained opportunity to thrive – High silver prices encourages more substitution away from silver – Is it finally time for alternatives (copper, aluminum, others) to make a dent?And…• Growth in emerging opportunities not fast enough to make up for losses in PV market or lack of real growth in thick film © NanoMarkets LC
  9. 9. 9 Some Good News Amidst the Gloom• There is no reasonable substitute for silver at this time in most applications• Legacy applications (printed circuitry, MS, PCB) are growing along with global industrialization• Emerging electronics applications – Sensors, especially in (bio)medical and ubiquitous electronics – Flexible electronics and displays • …deserves some skepticism, but may turn into an opportunity • Samsung announced production in 2012 of flexible displays © NanoMarkets LC
  10. 10. 10The Market for Silver Inks and Pastes in PV• 2010 was a banner year, with nearly 1.5x growth over prior year – Not sustainable – 2011 and 2012 back down to ~15 % growth – Recent predictions suggest even lower growth rates, < 8%• Why? – Gradual shift in relative share of TFPV compared to c-Si PV – Shift in silver consumption in c-Si PV back electrodes and for tabbing – Government support is waning © NanoMarkets LC
  11. 11. 11 Silver Inks and Paste in PV by Application 2012-2019 4500 200 4000 180 Addressable Market (Millions m2) 160 3500 140Value ($ Millions) 3000 120 2500 Value of Printed Silver in TFPV 100 2000 Value of Printed Silver in c-Si PV 80 c-Si Addressable Market 1500 60 TFPV Addressable Market 1000 40 500 20 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets LC
  12. 12. 12 Legacy Applications: Thick-Film Printed ElectronicsThe news is not all bad…• Global industrialization• Miniaturization trend• Few (good) alternatives to silver available © NanoMarkets LC
  13. 13. 13 What Kinds of Silver Alternatives Exist?• Conventional carbon pastes• Copper None of these are very – Etched convincing alternatives, unless major improvements – Printable Cu are made in performance…• Aluminum• Silver-coated metals, etc. For example, we believe that the alternative printable• Carbon nanomaterials conductive materials WILL• Conductive polymers penetrate somewhat, but will likely maximize at around 8 –• Nanosilver? 10% of the thick film market. © NanoMarkets LC
  14. 14. 14 Can Ag Really Be Replaced?• Silver is the most conductive metal• It is tempting to offer drop-in replacements as a way to enter a market, but how often does this work?• Costs – and risks – of switching an existing production line over to a new technology are often understated. – Barriers to entry are high – Markets are conservative – Existing materials entrenched © NanoMarkets LC
  15. 15. 15 Strategies for Silver Paste Alternatives to Gain EntryOffer products for new kinds of products andapplications• Opportunities for: – Inks and pastes that enable miniaturization – New inks and pastes for markets not fully formed yet – Transparent conductors based on Ag• But keep an eye on the competition: – Photonically cured Cu and similar – CNTs and graphene © NanoMarkets LC
  16. 16. Will the Nanosilver Revolution Ever Happen? 16• The bad news: – Economies of scale – Murky regulatory environment – Minimal market pull for printed electronics• The good news: – Miniaturization of electronics – Sustained high silver prices might finally lead to a sustained opportunity for nanosilver products – There are clear opportunities for transparent nanosilver coatings that compete with ITO • Outside the scope of this report, but provide an outlet for development products and a revenue stream while printed electronics develops • Focus area of NanoMarkets; See other reports © NanoMarkets LC
  17. 17. 17 Summary of the Opportunities• Pastes and inks that reduce costs are in demand, and are necessary to keep out the competition• Inks and pastes that enable higher resolution printing and miniaturization• The PV market is looking especially troublesome in the coming years, so diversification into other markets will be necessary – New applications in displays (?) and lighting – Sensors and related• These opportunities will take a rethinking of the marketing and business development strategies… © NanoMarkets LC
  18. 18. 18 Jill SimpsonJill C. Simpson is a Senior Analyst at NanoMarkets. Simpson’s background is inbusiness development, technical marketing, and commercialization of novel productsin electronic materials, with hands-on experience in the scale up and production ofinherently conductive polymers, coatings and inks, and flexible inorganic EL devices.She has worked in sales and business development at a major global chemical andmetals firm, and, more recently, in various management roles at a startup electronicmaterials and technology development firm.Simpson’s academic background is as a synthetic organic chemist. She has a Ph.D. inChemistry from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, as well as a bachelor’sdegree in chemistry and a minor in international relations from Cornell University. Shehas published research on inherently conductive polymers and on the synthesis ofconformationally-restricted hormone analogs for the investigation of © NanoMarkets LC
  19. 19. 19 270-1718 © NanoMarkets LC