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This year – 2013 – could prove to be the turning point for OLED lighting. Despite prophesies of doom from an anti-OLED camp, who believe basically that LEDs will conquer all, OLED lighting is not dead yet. There were new products in 2012, for example. But such announcements were nowhere near sufficient to support the view that OLED lighting is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the general illumination market in a few years.
NanoMarkets remains a proponent of OLED lighting’s eventual success. We note especially that OLED does not have to capture a large share of the general illumination market to be a profitable business and that some of the important technical evolution for OLED lighting (most notably in the area of efficacy) is proceeding quite impressively. Also, OLED lighting is quite different to any other kind of mainstream lighting technology because it takes the form of a flat panel, which, NanoMarkets believes, will give it a strong appeal in certain markets such as office and automotive lighting.
That said, NanoMarkets, believes that the original vision of OLED lighting in which it takes off in 2015 now looks unrealistic. If there is a takeoff point now, it looks more like it will have to wait until 2017 and beyond. Partly this is a technology issue; fairly large OLED lighting panels will have to be produced with good yields, for example, which isn’t happening yet.