Executive Summary- Radiation Detection Materials Markets
 

Executive Summary- Radiation Detection Materials Markets

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This report provides a detailed analysis of the opportunities for firms in, or about to enter, the radiation detection material sector. It provides a deep understanding of the commercial potential ...

This report provides a detailed analysis of the opportunities for firms in, or about to enter, the radiation detection material sector. It provides a deep understanding of the commercial potential for the new materials and discussion of the strategies that are being deployed by firms active in this sector. It also includes a granular eight-year forecast of radiation detection materials broken out by material types and market application.

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Executive Summary- Radiation Detection Materials Markets Executive Summary- Radiation Detection Materials Markets Document Transcript

  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net Radiation Detection Materials Markets--2011 Nano-386 Published August 2011 © NanoMarkets, LCNanoMarkets, LCPO Box 3840Glen Allen, VA 23058Tel: 804-360-2967Web: www.nanomarkets.net NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netEntire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is basedon the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot beguaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of factor judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representativepurchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per salesagreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the expresswritten permission of NanoMarkets, LC. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netTable of ContentsExecutive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1 Page | iE.1 Current Status of Radiation Detection Materials: Industry and Markets 1 E.1.1 Scintillation Radiation Detection Materials and Applications ........................................................... 2 E.1.2 Semiconducting Radiation Detection Materials and Applications ................................................... 6 E.2 Radiation Detection Materials Opportunity Profile ................................... 10 E.2.1 Opportunities for Low-Cost Radiation Detection Materials ............................................................ 11 E.2.2 Opportunities for High-Performance Radiation Detection Materials ............................................ 12 E.2.3 Longer-term Opportunities for Radiation Detection Materials ...................................................... 14 E.3 Key Firms to Watch ........................................................................................... 15 E.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Radiation Detection Materials .. 16Chapter One: Introduction ....................................................................................... 21 1.1 Background to This Report.............................................................................. 21 1.1.1 Scintillations and Semiconductors ..................................................................................................... 21 1.1.2 9/11 and After: Current Prospects and Markets for Radiation Detection Materials ............... 22 1.1.2 Imaging and Other Markets ............................................................................................................... 24 1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report............................................................... 25 1.3 Methodology of this Report ............................................................................ 25 1.4 Plan of this Report ............................................................................................ 26Chapter Two: Current and Future Factors Shaping the Radiation DetectionMaterials Market .......................................................................................................... 27 2.1 Application Trends Impacting Demand for Novel Radiation Detection Materials ..................................................................................................................... 27 2.1.1 Medical .................................................................................................................................................. 28 2.1.2 Domestic Security ................................................................................................................................ 31 2.1.3 Military................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.1.4 Nuclear Power ...................................................................................................................................... 38 2.1.5 Geophysical Applications .................................................................................................................... 40 2.1.6 Other Applications ............................................................................................................................... 41 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net 2.2 Industry Structure Analysis from a Materials Perspective ...................... 42 2.2.1 Current and Future Materials Requirements for Device Makers ................................................... 45 2.2.2 Market Developments and Trends at the Crystal Growers ............................................................ 47 2.2.3 Opportunities for Suppliers of Raw Chemicals in the Radiation Detection Materials Space ..... 48 Page | ii 2.3 Analysis of Key R&D Trends in Radiation Detection Materials ............... 49 2.4 Key Points Made in this Chapter .................................................................... 51Chapter Three: Radiation Detection: Standard and Emerging Materials ....... 54 3.1 The Future of Sodium Iodide in Radiation Detection ............................... 54 3.2 Market Opportunities for Newer Scintillation Radiation Detection Materials ..................................................................................................................... 55 3.2.1 Lanthanum Bromide-Based Materials ............................................................................................... 56 3.2.2 Cesium Iodide-Based Materials ......................................................................................................... 58 3.2.3 Strontium Iodide-Based Materials ..................................................................................................... 60 3.2.4 Fluoride Salt Scintillation Materials ................................................................................................... 61 3.2.5 Oxide-Based Scintillation Materials ................................................................................................... 62 3.2.6 Silicate-Based Scintillation Materials ................................................................................................. 66 3.2.7 Yttrium-Based Scintillation Materials ................................................................................................ 67 3.2.8 Nanocrystalline Scintillation Materials............................................................................................... 69 3.2.9 Plastic and Organic Polymer-Based Scintillation Materials ............................................................ 71 3.3 Market Opportunities for Semiconductor Radiation Detector Materials ...................................................................................................................................... 73 3.3.1 Ge- and Si-Based Materials ................................................................................................................ 73 3.3.2 Cadmium Telluride, and Cadmium Zinc Telluride-Based Materials .............................................. 76 3.3.3 Gallium Arsenide-Based Materials ..................................................................................................... 78 3.3.4 Indium Phosphide-Based Materials ................................................................................................... 80 3.3.5 Aluminum Antimonide, Mercury Iodide and Other High Temperature Semiconductor Radiation Sensitive Materials ......................................................................................................................................... 81 3.4 Other Radiation Sensitive Materials ............................................................. 83 3.4.1 Silicon Carbide ..................................................................................................................................... 83 3.4.2 Gallium Nitride ..................................................................................................................................... 84 3.4.3 Neutron Detectors ............................................................................................................................... 85 3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter .................................................................... 86 Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for Radiation Detector Materials ........ 89 4.1 Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................ 89 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net 4.1.1 Data Sources ........................................................................................................................................ 90 4.1.2 Roadmap for Radiation Detector Materials Growth ........................................................................ 91 4.2 Eight-Year Forecast for Radiation Detector Materials ............................. 91 4.2.1 Forecast by Radiation Detection Application ................................................................................... 99 Page | iii Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report .......................................... 129 About the Author .................................................................................................... 130 List of ExhibitsExhibit E-1: Worldwide Radiation Detection Revenues ($ millions).................................................... 17Exhibit E-2: Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume ........................................................................... 19Exhibit E-3: Worldwide Radiation Detector Revenues by Application ($ Millions) ................................. 20Exhibit 4-1: Worldwide Radiation Detection Revenue ($ Millions) ...................................................... 92Exhibit 4-2: Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume ........................................................................... 92Exhibit 4-3: Worldwide Scintillation Detector Revenue by Materials Type ( $ Millions) ......................... 94Exhibit 4-4: Worldwide Scintillation Detector Volumes by Materials Type ........................................... 95Exhibit 4-5: Worldwide Semiconductor Detector Revenue by Materials Type ($ Millions) ..................... 96Exhibit 4-6: Worldwide Semiconductor Detector Volume by Materials Type (Thousands of cm 2) .......... 96Exhibit 4-7: Cost per cm3 of Scintillation Materials (Dollars per cm3) ................................................. 98Exhibit 4-8: Cost of Various Semiconducting Detector Materials (Dollars per cm 2) .............................. 98Exhibit 4-9: Worldwide Radiation Detector Revenues by Application ($ Millions) ................................100Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume by Application ..................................................101Exhibit 4-11: NaI Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ......................................................................102Exhibit 4-12: NaI Volume (millions of cm3) by Application ................................................................103Exhibit 4-13: CsI Crystalline Revenue by Application ($Millions) ......................................................104Exhibit 4-14: CsI Crystalline Volume (millions of cm3) by Application ................................................105Exhibit 4-15: CsI Thin-film Revenue by Application ($ Millions of Dollars) .........................................106Exhibit 4-16: CsI Thin-Film Volume (millions of cm2) by Application..................................................107Exhibit 4-17: Lanthanum-Based (LaBr3/LaCl3) Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ............................107Exhibit 4-18: Lanthanum-Based (LaBr3/LaCl3) Volume (millions of cm3) by Application ......................108Exhibit 4-19: Other Crystalline Simple Salt Detectors Revenue by Application ($ Millions) .................109Exhibit 4-20: Other Crystalline Simple Salt Detectors Volume (Millions of cm3) by Application ............109Exhibit 4-21: Oxide-Based Detectors Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ..........................................110 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netExhibit 4-22: Oxide-Based Detectors (BGO/PbWO4/etc) Volume (Millions of cm 3) by Application ........111Exhibit 4-23: Silicate-Based (LSO/BSO/etc) Revenue by Application (Millions of Dollars) ..................112Exhibit 4-24: Silicate Based (LSO/BSO/etc) (Millions of cm3) Volume by Application .........................112Exhibit 4-25: Yttrium-Based Scintillation Materials Revenue by Application (Millions of Dollars) .........113 Page | ivExhibit 4-26: Yttrium-Based Scintillation Materials (Millions of cm 3) Volume by Application ...............114Exhibit 4-27: Plastic/Polymer-Based Scintillation Materials Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ..........115Exhibit 4-28: Plastic/Polymer Based Scintillation Materials (Thousands of cm 2) Volume by Application 115Exhibit 4-29: Nanocrystalline/Nanowire/etc Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ...............................116Exhibit 4-30: Nanocrystalline/Nanowire/etc Volume (Thousands of cm 2) by Application ....................117Exhibit4-31: HPGe and Si Revenue by Application ($Millions) ..........................................................118Exhibit 4-32: HPGe and Si (Thousands of cm2) by Application ..........................................................118Exhibit 4-33: CdSe/CdTe/CdZnTe Revenue by Application ($ Millions) .............................................119Exhibit 4-34: CdSe/CdTe/CdZnTe (Thousands of cm2) by Application ...............................................120Exhibit 4-35: Gallium Arsenide Revenue by Application ($ Millions) .................................................121Exhibit 4-36: Gallium Arsenide (Thousands of cm2) by Application....................................................121Exhibit 4-37: Aluminum Antimonide Revenue by Application ($ Millions) ..........................................122Exhibit 4-38: Aluminum Antimonide (Thousands of cm2) and other High Temp Semiconductors by Application ...........................................................................................................................123Exhibit 4-39: Other Room Temperature Semiconducting Revenue (Millions of Dollars) .....................124Exhibit 4-40: Other Room Temperature Semiconducting Detectors by Volume (Thousands of cm 2) ....125Exhibit 4-41: Worldwide Radiation Detector Revenue by Region (Millions of Dollars) .........................127Exhibit 4-42: Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume by Region (Thousands of cm 2) ..........................127 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netExecutive SummaryE.1 Current Status of Radiation Detection Materials: Industry and Markets Page | 1Radiation detection materials are a category of materials that represent a sector poised tomaintain and moderately increase the steady growth of the past five-ten years. This market,in fact, is projected to experience steady growth for the foreseeable future based on two keyapplication areas: domestic security and medical imaging. While the growth trend is stablewith respect to present materials, the demands of next-generation medical imaging, theswitch from film to digital for x-ray imaging, and the increased isotope detection and overallmonitoring needs of the domestic security sector will require both expansion of the capacityof present materials and the introduction of new materials with higher performance at areasonable price point.These key markets will support the majority of growth in the radiation detection materialsarea over the next five-eight years. While current materials such as NaI, BGO, LYSO, siliconand germanium are employed in many applications, they are all less than ideal for manycurrent and proposed new end uses. The needs of domestic security and nuclear medicinediagnostics for both high performance and higher sensitivity for some applications, and theneed for less sensitive low cost solutions for pervasive monitoring on the other hand, presenta fertile market for new radiation detection materials.The major radiation detection materials in the market place are either scintillation-based orsemiconductor-based. Scintillation materials are crystals that emit a flash of light whenexcited by radiation. The light is then detected with a photomultiplier tube. NaI is thedominant scintillation material used today. Other simple salts (mostly iodides), BGO(Bi3Ge4O12), PVT (polyvinyl toluene), and LYSO (cerium doped lutetium yttrium orthosilicate)are also widely used. Scintillation-based radiation detectors are currently the only practicalsolution from a cost perspective for large area or array detectors used for medical imagingand stand-off security applications, but improvements in their resolution, efficiency andsensitivity are widely desired by their user base.Semiconductor based radiation detectors are the other major class of radiation detectionmaterials. Silicon and high purity germanium (HPGe) are the dominant detector materials inthis class. While semiconductor detectors have much improved resolution and are the onlysolution available for many high performance applications, their cost is more than ten timesthat of most scintillation materials and they require mechanical cooling or cooling in liquid NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netnitrogen for functionality. While extreme cooling requirements are not an issue for laboratoryapplications, mobile and field applications requiring high resolution are in desperate need of alow cost, room temperature, high resolution solution capable of isotope detection. CdZnTe isshowing promise as a room temperature radiation detector and several devices are in the Page | 2marketplace, but CdZnTe crystal growth to achieve the large single crystals necessary for largescale production at reasonable cost has proven an elusive goal.Through the 1990s, work to understand the physics of new scintillation and semiconductormaterials proceeded at a relatively leisurely pace and was confined largely to the academicworld, as the development of new materials and engineering of these materials into productswas not economically justified by the level of commercial demand (with the exception ofmedical imaging, where there was enough demand to justify some movement to develop newmaterials).The entire landscape for radiation detection materials changed after 9/11, however, when thethreat of stateless actors attacking the U.S. or other nations with either a nuclear device or animprovised radiological weapon (dirty bomb) became a viable threat. In response to this newthreat, the U.S. government implemented laws and policies requiring the placement ofradiation detection equipment at all ports of entry and the availability of mobile and fixeddetection equipment for first responders at home and in countries that were targets forinternational terrorism. In addition, programs such as the U.S. Megaports Initiative seek toplace radiation detection equipment at foreign ports in addition to U.S. ports of entry. E.1.1 Scintillation Radiation Detection Materials and ApplicationsSodium Iodide: Thallium activated NaI(Tl) was discovered over 50 years ago and is thedominant scintillation material used today because of its relatively good performance at anextremely low price point. It has excellent light yield and its luminescence spectrum is wellmatched to current photomultiplier tubes. The disadvantages of NaI(Tl) are its hygroscopicnature, sensitivity to physical and thermal shock and level of resolution, which is not enoughfor reliable isotope identification. NaI is widely used in security portals of all sizes, medicalapplications, dosimeters, well logging, nuclear plant monitoring, and high energy physicsresearch. And while many new materials will take a greater share of the overall radiationdetection materials market, NanoMarkets believes that the overall growth of the market willbe so brisk in domestic security, military applications and medical imaging that the prospectsfor NaI(Tl) are quite positive for the foreseeable future. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netLanthanum Bromide: To meet the higher resolution requirements of next generation medicalimaging devices and for isotope detection, replacement materials have been investigated.Lanthanum Bromide (LaBr3) was the first scintillation material on the market with betterresolution than NaI. One drawback is the intrinsic radioactivity of 138La, which reduces Page | 3resolution below 100 keV and makes it less attractive for lower energy sensing applications.Projected markets for LaBr3 include the medical imaging area as well as detectors forimproved radiation detection at a distance. The U.S. Navy is currently investigating the use oflanthanum bromide scintillation materials as part of their naval research maritime weapons ofmass destruction detection program. Adoption of LaBr 3 has been slowed, however, becauseof the high cost of quality LaBr3 crystals. Additionally, Saint-Gobain holds many of the keypatents for the lanthanum halogen series (LaBr3, LaCl3, etc), and NanoMarkets is uncertainwhether this situation will accelerate or retard the price reductions necessary for enablingwidespread adoption of LaBr3.Cesium Iodide: Cesium iodide (CsI) is a scintillation material that looks to have a bright futurefor growth. It is a likely substitute for NaI in applications where the shock sensitivity andhygroscopic nature of NaI are drawbacks. CsI is not hygroscopic, is much less shock sensitiveand has similar resolution to NaI (5 percent lower). Its higher stopping power reduces theform factor for similar detection sensitivity, and the smaller form factor has already beenexploited for use in mobile detection systems. And behind NaI(Tl), Cesium Iodide is one of themost commonly used materials for gamma radiation detection. Because it does not need tobe in a sealed container, it is the preferred material when both high and low energy gammarays are of interest.While CsI crystals will enjoy steady growth, NanoMarkets predicts that CsI thin films for x-rayimaging are likely to be its highest growth market in the near term as x-ray medical imagingtransitions from film to digital. X-ray detectors using thin-film CsI consist of a flat panel ofamorphous Silicon (a-Si) along with a thin film coating of CsI. The X-rays cause a scintillationevent in the CsI, and the contrast of these events are transferred to the amorphous Silicon flatpanel where they are collected and turned into a digital image. CsI flat panel x-ray detectorshave been demonstrated to be of better contrast and resolution than fifth-generation storagephosphor systems. Early systems were not cost competitive, but prices have dropped in halfover the past five years and are NanoMarkets expects them to drop in half again over the nextfive years.Strontium Iodide: Strontium iodide (SrI2) is another new radiation detection material that hasbetter resolution than NaI(Tl). It is newer than lanthanum bromide and has not yet NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netestablished a market presence, but NanoMarkets believes it has many attractive propertiesthat make it a material to watch going forward. Strontium Iodide doped with Europium (SrI2(Eu)) has a demonstrated resolution of ~ Page | 4 2.6 percengt at 662 keV. This resolution makes it a possible candidate for isotope detection. Early work with the material indicates that crystal growth is relatively straight forward. If SrI2(Eu) can be grown in volume easily, the material should have a very bright future.However, most work to date has been done at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL)and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Domestic Nuclear Detection Office inconjunction with Radiation Monitoring Devices of Watertown, Mass, so it remains to be seenif the material can be manufactured in volume. If it can, we believe that this substance hasthe potential to be a significant new entrant in the scintillation materials area.Other Halides: Other materials such as lead fluoride are used mainly as Cherenkov detectorsand in other high energy physics applications. Barium and calcium fluoride detectors are alsocommercially available. Barium fluoride is attractive for some applications because of its highdensity and high time resolution. Calcium fluoride is being investigated for x-ray imaging.Oxides: Oxides represent another class of scintillation materials that in general are not quiteas good as NaI(Tl) from the perspective of light output or resolution, but compare favorably toNaI(Tl) in terms of thermal and mechanical shock and additionally are easy to manufacture atan attractive price point. The engineering and manufacturing advantages of the oxidescintillators supersede the better performance of NaI(Tl) for certain applications. Bismuthgermanium oxide (BGO), lead tungstate (PbWO4), cadmium tungstate (CdWO4), and zinctungstate (ZnWO4), are typical of commercially available oxide scintillators. The resolution ofthese materials is in the 8-to-10 percent range for 662 keV radiation. The high density ofthese materials gives them good stopping power and good photon efficiency per unit volume.This class of crystals has found applications in energy physics, nuclear physics, space physics,nuclear medicine and medical imaging, geological prospecting and other industries.Plastics and Organic Polymers: Plastic and organic polymer-based materials represent thelowest cost, lowest performance type of scintillation material. They are extremely cheap tomanufacture but have almost no ability to resolve between different types of radiation. Theirability to differentiate between natural sources of radiation such as ceramics and radiological NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netthreats is also limited and results in a high false positive alarm rate when they are used inportal applications.All of the organic and plastic scintillation materials are based on aromatic compounds that Page | 5fluoresce when radiation interacts with the pie orbitals in the double and triple bonds of suchmaterials. Organic scintillators are either dissolved in a solvent or polymer matrix.Polymerized polyvinyl toluene (PVT) is the most common solid solvent system for organicscintillators. Most of the recent work on organic scintillators has centered on loading thematerial with higher Z metal centers to improve energy resolution. While some of the work ispromising, none of the improved resolution materials are currently available in high volume inthe commercial marketplace.Silicates: Silicate-based scintillation materials represent a class of materials that NanoMarketsbelieves is set for robust growth during the period covered by this report. Lutetium silicateLu2SiO5(Ce) or LSO and gadolinium orthosilicate (Gd2SiO5) (GSO) are of note as they arebeginning to replace BGO in many applications. LSO is one of several rare earth orthosilicatescintillation materials that is currently used extensively in radiation detection applications.LSO and GSO both have good light yield, good energy resolution, good chemical and radiationstability, short luminescence, and high density. Less attractive properties for LSO are itsstrong non-linear light yield and radioactive contamination.Yttrium silicates are also expected by NanoMarkets to grow faster than the market. Whilesmall crystal growth techniques are well understood, however, to be economically viable,growth techniques for larger crystals will have to be developed.YAP (YAl03/yttrium aluminum perovskite) and YAG (Y3Al5O12/yttrium aluminum garnet) wereboth developed from known laser materials by doping them with Cerium. Both YAP and YAGhave resolutions slightly better than NaI(Tl) and are mechanically rugged. Current uses forYAP include high resolution alpha spectrometers. The newest Yttrium based scintillationmaterial is cerium-doped gadolinium yttrium gallium aluminum garnet, which has a chemicalformula of (Gd,Y)3(G,Al)5O12. It is generally referred to GYGAG(Ce). GYGAG(Ce) and wasdeveloped at LLNL. It is not grown from a melt as most scintillation material are, but is firstcast, then sintered, then processed in a high temperature, high pressure argon atmosphere toremove residual porosity. While not widely used for scintillation materials, this isostatictechnique has been employed commercially in the manufacture of YAG laser elements andtransparent armor (aluminum oxynitride). Though it is not commercially available yet, theperformance of GYGAG(Ce) in the lab approaches that of LaBr3, so if it can be commercialized NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netat a lower price point than LaBr3, NanoMarkets believes it will be a material to track closely asit comes to market.Nanocrystals: Further out on the horizon, nanocrystalline materials may begin to have an Page | 6impact on the market late in the period covered by this report. As particle sizes shrink below100 nm, quantum effects can cause dramatic shifts in optical properties compared to the bulk.Cadmium sulfide (CdS) is the most studied of these materials. It is likely that similartechniques could be used to manipulate the band structure of scintillation materials toimprove their properties. Some work on the synthesis of nanocrystalline zinc oxide (ZnO),LSO, and ZnWO4 is ongoing at various universities, but no details on their scintillationproperties have been reported to date. E.1.2 Semiconducting Radiation Detection Materials and ApplicationsThe highest performance radiation detection material currently available is high puritygermanium (HPGe), and it will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. Currently, it is theonly radiation detection source that can reliably identify radioisotopes from their passivegamma emissions. The resolution of current high-performance HPGe detectors is 20 to 30times that of NaI(Tl) (resolution down to 0.1 percent). The key application from a domesticsecurity perspective for HPGe is as an energy sensitive detector for radioisotope identification.The well-known drawbacks of HPGe are its cryogenic requirements and the highly accuratesupporting electronics necessary to take advantage of its high sensitivity. HPGe also exhibitslow radiation resistance compared to scintillation detectors and can be damaged whenexposed to very high energy ionizing radiation. The electronics issues have largely been solvedas high-performance, low cost digital signal processers have become available. The lowtemperature requirement is still an issue, but has been improved as small low power (around15 watts) electromechanical cryogenic coolers have come on the market. While expensive,HPGe has been demonstrated as effective for cargo screening with isotope identificationcapability superior to traditional portal detectors. Our opinion is that HPGe will havecompetition from high temperature semiconductor materials for mobile and fieldapplications, but no new materials will challenge it for the highest resolution applications.Cadmium compounds: While HPGe will retain its dominance for ultra high-resolutionapplications, NanoMarkets believes that new materials with resolutions high enough forisotope detection that functions at room temperature will be the significant growth area forsemiconductor radiation detectors. Two of the most studied compounds that are poised forgrowth are cadmium telluride (CdTe) and cadmium zinc telluride (CdxZn1-xTe, CZT). If current NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netcrystal growth issues and the resultant high costs can be addressed, these materials shouldexperience robust growth throughout the reporting period.CdTe has been investigated as a room temperature gamma ray detector since the mid-1960s. Page | 7It is typically grown using vertical zone melt methods or Bridgeman methods, but techniquesto grow large single crystals needed for large volume low cost production have beenextremely difficult to achieve.CdTe detectors are commercially available, however, and are used in some medicalinstrumentation, miniaturized nuclear fuel monitoring probes, capillary electrophoresisdetectors, portable dosimeters and some x-ray and gamma ray imaging applications.CdxZn1-xTe (CZT) was discovered in 1992 as part of work to improve the quality of CdTe. Theaddition of Zn to the melt of Cd and Te during growth helps improve the dislocation density,which results in higher quality single crystal substrates. Like CdTe, crystal growth costs andengineering for cadmium zinc telluride are the chief limiting factors to widespread use.While work to generate large single crystals of CdxZn1-xTe in high yield at low cost has beenslow and frustrating, recent efforts have achieved promising results. Traveling heater growthprocesses have been able to produce acceptable-sized single crystals in large volumes formedical imaging and domestic security applications. CZT-based solutions for isotopeidentification for hand-held dirty bomb detection, stand-off detection and high-speedbaggage scanning equipment are all now commercially available. They have been able tomeasure the ratio of 235U to 238U in samples to determine enrichment of uranium to within10 percent at room temperature. NanoMarkets believes that CZT also has significant potentialin medical imaging. Because of its improved sensitivity, it offers a means to reduce the doseof radioactive imaging agent used for patients, shorter imaging times and higher imageresolution.Gallium Arsenide: Gallium arsenide (GaAs) also functions at room temperature. Its keyadvantage is that it has the highest electron mobility at room temperature of all of thecommon semiconductor radiation detection materials. GaAs is also widely used in thesemiconductor industry and thus single crystal substrates are readily available.The initial work on GaAs for radiation detection applications was done in the early 1960s andthis substance was the first semiconductor to demonstrate high-resolution gamma raydetection at room temperature. Improvement over the initial detectors has been relativelyslow, however, as germanium became the focus of semiconductor radiation detector work. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netWhile the substrate is widely available, thick epitaxial films are required for acceptableefficiency and improvements in high deposition rate epitaxial deposition techniques will haveto be implemented to enable low cost, high-performance detectors. The preferred route forcommercial detectors at this point is bulk grown semi-insulating (SI) GaAs as a detector Page | 8instead of liquid phase epitaxial films. While most likely limited in volume compared to otherapplications, markets for GaAs have been reported such as adoption as an x-ray imaging pixelarray, as pixel arrays for thermal neutron imaging, and in high speed radiation pulse detectors.NanoMarkets believes that the cost of current GaAs detectors and the associated processingrequirements will probably limit their use to some low energy gamma spectrometryapplications, high speed radiation pulse detectors, and some x-ray spectrometry applications.Indium Phosphide: Indium phosphide (InP) is a III-V compound semiconductor with azincblende structure. It can be grown as single crystals by standard techniques that can be cutinto large area wafers similar to what is done with silicon for CMOS applications. The bandgap of 1.35 eV (compared to 1.1 eV for silicon and 0.67 for germanium) indicates that itshould be a much lower noise detector than Si or Ge. Early work on InP centered on Fe dopedInP, which demonstrated a low charge-collection for highly doped Fe. Low doped Fe had thedrawback of low resistivity. Work is ongoing to improve InP purity and improve Fe dopinguniformity and profiles for potential applications in room temperature alpha detectors.Other potential room temperature semiconductor materials: Other materials on the horizonthat may have applications as room temperature semiconducting radiation detectionmaterials include mercury iodide, thallium bromide, and aluminum antimonide.Mercury iodide( HgI2) is a semiconducting material that has been investigated since the early1970s as a room temperature gamma ray detector. It is limited to temperatures below 130°Cdue to irreversible phase changes. Its resolution, ease of synthesis and ability to work at roomtemperature has led to commercial applications in medical instrumentation, x-ray astronomyapplications, and x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. While it has a commercial presence,NanoMarkets does not expect mercury iodide to grow in excess of the market.Cadmium selenide (CdSe) is another possible room temperature gamma ray and x-raydetector, but current crystal growth techniques result in high defect levels and substantialhole trapping, which limits it to low energy gamma spectroscopy at the present. There issome work on CdxZn 1-xSe alloys that can be made with an increased band gap and decreasedleakage currents. No commercial devices are currently available. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netGallium selenide (GaSe) was first studied as a possible room temperature radiation detector inthe 1970’s, but crystal growth techniques have not been found that can produce defect-freecrystals suitable for commercial applications. Additionally, its resolution may not be highenough for isotope detection at room temperature. Page | 9Thallium bromide (TlBr) has also been investigated as a room temperature gamma raydetector, but work in the 1980s showed surprisingly low resolution. The material was revisitedin the late 1990s and resolutions less than 5 percent were achieved at room temperature.While this level is acceptable, it must be further improved to be effective in an isotopedetection role.Aluminum antimonide (AlSb) is a new substance that may have significant potential as a roomtemperature radiation detection material. It was initially investigated based on theoreticalstudies of potential radiation detection materials and most of the work has been conducted atLLNL. While the synthetic techniques for production of contaminate-free crystals are stillbeing perfected initial studies have demonstrated resolution for the 133 keV peak of 210Paround 2.5 percent. Current devices, however, suffer from incomplete charge collection dueto crystal imperfections and contaminants in the crystal. Work is ongoing to improve thecharge collection and resolution issues before prototypes will be available.In addition, as bulk crystal synthesis may be problematic, alternative synthetic routes arebeing investigated. Synthesis of AlSb nanowires by electrodeposition may provide a routearound many of the issues that have made growth of crystals by traditional meanschallenging. Initial work in the lab has demonstrated that electrodeposition in a poroustemplate such as Al2O3 or TiO2 can result in a continuous material in the host material poresand a means to a potential 3D sensor. Work on such nanowires is in its infancy, but if some ofthe work on nanowires in other fields can be leveraged, it may be possible to build regulararrays of highly pure AlSb capable of room temperature radiation detection.Carbides and nitrides are also classes of semiconducting materials with potential as roomtemperature radiation detectors. Silicon carbide is a well known and commercially availablematerial that has been used as a radiation dose meter in harsh environmental applications. Ithas been demonstrated that off-the-shelf Silicon carbide ultraviolet photodiodes can be usedto measure gamma dose rates over a range of six orders of magnitude and at hightemperatures (up to 200°C). One weakness of Si and Ge are their susceptibility to damage athigh radiation levels. SiC is a good potential substitute for high radiation applications forseveral reasons: NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net SiC has a large band gap and high atomic displacement threshold, which improves radiation hardness, SiC has high electron and hole mobility, allowing fast signal collection, and SiC has a high resistivity so no dopants are needed. Page | 10Gallium nitride (GaN) is another wide band gap semiconductor that has been investigated as aradiation detector. It is currently widely used for LED’s and laser diodes. Because of thisexperience with the material and its high radiation resistance and chemical stability GaN isbeing investigated as a radiation detection material. Like SiC, gallium nitride could potentiallyreplace Si and Ge in applications where its improved radiation hardness is an advantage. Infact, GaN looks very promising in improved tracking detectors for high energy physics where Siand Ge suffer damage issues. In addition, GaN can be further radiation hardened (over anorder of magnitude) by electrochemically roughening the surface of the detector.E.2 Radiation Detection Materials Opportunity ProfileOpportunities abound for new radiation detection materials with improved propertiescompared to currently available scintillation and semiconductor products. No currentmaterial meets all of the needs of current applications. Resolution, efficiency, sensitivity andcost are areas of need for almost all applications. Semiconductor detectors requireimprovement in room temperature service, higher availability and robustness and overallsensitivity and performance. For scintillation detectors higher light output is a key need, asare better linearity, energy resolution and decay times. Reduced cost and simplifiedfabrication techniques are areas for improvement for nanocomposites and ceramics.Applications for radiation detection materials can generally be broken down into low costsolutions and high-performance solutions. Domestic security is a major user of both types.For initial screening, a variety of plastic and NaI detectors are used. For further investigation,semiconductor-based solutions with higher resolution are typically utilized.In the medical imaging market, the lower cost materials dominate the landscape. The majorgrowth markets in this area include thin-film scintillators for x-ray detectors as well as higherperformance large scintillation crystals for radiological imaging applications. NanoMarketsexpects the overall market for radiological imaging needs to increase more than 50 percent inthe next six years. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net E.2.1 Opportunities for Low-Cost Radiation Detection MaterialsOpportunities for low cost radiation detection materials center on displacing NaI(Tl) as thematerial of choice for most domestic security applications and on development of high-performance materials as alternatives for medical imaging equipment. Page | 11Domestic security opportunities: In the domestic security area, there are severalopportunities for new materials to make inroads as a replacement for NaI(Tl). All of theseopportunities revolve around alternatives that have a similar light emission to NaI andequivalent performance in the radiation detection role, but with enough improvement inresolution that they can function in an isotope identification role as well.Note that the requirement is not that the material have the resolution of HPGe, but that thematerial has enough improvement in resolution compared to NaI(Tl) to perform the isotopicidentification role in portal screening applications. If scintillators with such improvements inresolution can be brought to market at low cost, they would eliminate the need for two-stepscreening of cargo at ports as is done today. With an initial screen using an NaI detectorfollowed if necessary by screening with a high resolution HPGe detector for isotopicdetermination to determine if the initial NaI-based alarm is a true security threat.Low-cost detectors with improved resolution would eliminate this laborious second step incargo screening. NanoMarkets believes that, while not on the market yet, strontium iodidehas potential to function in this role. There seem to be no barriers from a crystal growthperspective, and the high resolution of this material makes it a good candidate to provide alow cost scintillation material with improved resolution for the isotope identification role incargo screening. YAP and YAG are all also candidates if their large crystal growth issues can beovercome at low cost. GYGAG(Ce) has interesting properties as well, but is too early in its lifecycle to determine if it can be brought to market at low cost for domestic securityapplications.Thin-film-based imaging opportunities: The next class of lower cost scintillation detectorsexpected to experience outsized growth is CsI thin-films for medical imaging applications. Thetransition from film and phosphor plates is well underway, and CsI thin-film imaging plateshave grown dramatically in the past five years. If they can continue to come down the costcurve, there is no reason why they should not become a dominant technology for x-rayimaging over the next five years.Crystal-based imaging opportunities: The final area of opportunity for lower cost scintillationcrystals is for radiological imaging. In this case, the current cost of these materials (such as NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netBGO) is greater than the cost of NaI(Tl), so there is somewhat more latitude for moderatelymore expensive materials to come to market if the performance improvement justifies thecost over today’s benchmark materials. LaBr3 and silicates such as LSO and GSO should all bewell represented going forward. The yttrium silicates may also have opportunities for growth Page | 12in the medical imaging area if crystal growth techniques can be perfected to allow volumeproduction of large crystals. E.2.2 Opportunities for High-Performance Radiation Detection MaterialsSemiconductor radiation detectors offer the highest resolution of known materials and arethus used in the most demanding energy resolution applications. Several attractiveopportunities for growth exist in the high-performance radiation detection materials area,however.Opportunities for HPGe: The highest resolution applications will continue to be dominated byHPGe and benefit from incremental improvements in HPGe-based detectors.In fact, these improvements will have less to do with the detection material and more withcost and form factor reduction opportunities in the rest of the integrated system. As highperformance digital signal processors become more powerful and at the same time use lessenergy, there will be some size reduction in the electronics and improved battery life for thesystem due to less power use. Improvements in the electromechanical cooling alternatives toliquid nitrogen for detectors will also be important.Electromechanical cooling to eliminate the liquid nitrogen requirement for HPGe detectorshas undergone many improvements over the years and is at the point where the new units onthe market are much less bulky and do not degrade detector performance compared to liquidnitrogen cooled units. Early units were too bulky for convenient use. Adoption ofelectromechanical cooling elements originally developed for cooling of military IR sensorsimproved form factor, but further improvements were necessary to reduce vibrations andfurther reduce the form factor. Units with these improvements, which came on the marketaround 2004, have high resolution, an improved form factor for mobile operations and lowenough power requirements that they are acceptable for field operations (~ 15 watts).Based on the progression of improvements over time for such micro-electromechanicalcoolers, further incremental improvements in power requirements and form factor will nodoubt continue. With the improvements in these units, competing high temperature detectoroptions will have to have hand held form factors and ultra low power consumptions withresolution high enough to easily fulfill the isotope identification role in order to take market NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netshare away from these latest small mobile electromechanically cooled HPGe units. Webelieve that the latest germanium-based detectors with the reduced size at a similar pricepoint will enjoy steady growth through the reporting period. Page | 13Several companies are pursuing new electromechanical materials for energy harvesting andcooling, and these materials have the potential to reduce the size and energy requirements ofcurrent thermoelectric coolers by half. With reduced size at a similar price point, germanium-based detectors will enjoy steady growth through the reporting period.Opportunities for CZT: If crystal growth techniques can be mastered and aggressive costcutting put in place as detector manufacturing volumes increase, NanoMarkets believes thatCZT will be poised for the most dramatic growth over the next eight years. While CZT doesnot have the resolution of HPGe, it is more than adequate for isotope detection in domesticsecurity applications and high enough such that automated software can analyze raw data forthreats with a very low false positive identification rate.The ability of CZT to detect at room temperature frees it from the requirements that HPGehas for either liquid nitrogen or electromechanical coolers, thus allowing CZT detectors tohave a significantly smaller form factor and a much longer battery life for field operations. Theoverall market for these detectors is not to be underestimated. If the cost can be broughtdown, NanoMarkets believes that CZT will not just displace current HPGe units, but willexpand the usage of high-performance isotope-capable detectors into areas where NaIdetection is current employed because HPGe detectors are impractical due to the cooling andform factor requirements.Medical imaging is another significant opportunity for CZT if detector costs can be reduced.The increased sensitivity and resolution of CZT compared to current materials such as BGOoffers several advantages: Improved image resolution Increased sensitivity, allowing lower doses and decreased imaging time. The decreased imaging time per patient improves the productivity and profitability of each unit and enables a smaller form factor unit.All of these positive aspects can justify some cost offset of CZT vs. current and projectedscintillators. NanoMarkets anticipates, however, that there will have to be significantreductions in the current cost of CZT detectors and demonstration of detector availability inhigh volume before CZT will be adopted in the marketplace for medical imaging. Production NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netvolumes are increasing and crystal quality is improving, but it remains to be seen if highvolume production can reduce the costs enough for CZT to experience its full potentialgrowth. Page | 14 E.2.3 Longer-term Opportunities for Radiation Detection MaterialsA final radiation detection area where there is an opportunity and a desperate need but fewsolutions is detection of low and high energy neutrons.Opportunities in low energy neutron detection: Current low energy neutron detectors, orthermal neutron detectors, are vacuum tubes filled with 3He gas. 3He detection is unwieldy atbest. Tubes are up to a meter long, require 1000V to operate, and are sensitive to vibrations.Furthermore, current stores of 3He are being consumed three times faster than they are beingreplenished. 3Heis is harvested from nuclear weapons, and with the disarmament treatiespresently in place, the available production is constantly declining with no natural source toserve as a replacement. Projections are that current stores will be exhausted in less than 10years.Suitable solid-state materials are not commercially available. One attractive solution on thehorizon is a fabricated Si/boron solid-state detector. The detector consists of extremelydeeply etched silicon trenches (up to 50 um) that are filled with boron. The boron detects thethermal neutrons, which produce particles that interact with the silicon to create a currentthat in turn can be detected to quantify the thermal radiation. Another new solution isscintillating glass fiber neutron censors with 6Li embedded in the glass fibers.Opportunities in high energy neutron detection: The best known material for detecting highenergy or fast neutrons is Stilbene, but the only commercially available source of Stilbenesingle crystals for radiation detection use is in the Ukraine. Crystal growth techniques aredifficult and expensive at this point. Research is ongoing at U.S.-based national labs, but workis far from commercialization. Key characteristics for a Stilbene substitute include thefollowing: The presence of benzene rings for efficient scintillation; High hydrogen content for interactions with neutrons; Only low-atomic-number (low-Z) constituents, such as hydrogen or carbon, to avoid excessive interaction with gamma radiation; and Delayed emission to better show pulse shape discrimination (PSD). NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netThe key for such crystals is to be able to separate the signature of neutrons from a strongbackground of gamma radiation. The process is called pulse shape discrimination. Stilbenehas been known for years as such a material. Today, liquid organic scintillation materials areused because of Stilbene’s limited availability, high cost, and environmental concerns. 1,3,5- Page | 15triphenlybenzene and 9,10 diphenylanthracene are two of the materials that LLNL hasidentified as possible alternatives for Stilbene.E.3 Key Firms to WatchFor NaI, there are several key firms to track, although there are many smaller manufacturersthat also supply the market. Horiba in Japan is one of the major manufacturers of largeNaI(Tl) crystals. In the U.S., Alpha Spectra of Grand Junction Colorado is a major supplier forhighly varied radiation detection applications. Saint-Gobain and Hilger are also majorsuppliers of NaI worldwide.For thin-film CsI/a-Si, Hamamatsu, Varian, Samsung and Kodak are all major suppliers of x-rayflat panel modules and key firms to track in this sector going forward. Radiation MonitoringDevices of Watertown, Massachusetts is also very active in thin-film CsI research for x-raydetection.For scintillation oxide and silicate crystals suitable for radiological medical imagingapplications such as BGO, LSO, GSO, Saint-Gobain, Lambda Photonics, Hilger crystals, Hitachiand small companies such as Omega Piezo of State College, Pennsylvania and Rexon ofBeachwood, Ohio are firms to watch.ORTEC, based in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, is one of the leaders in HPGe detectors. CanberraIndustries of Meriden, Conn. is also a major manufacturer of these detectors.In the CZT space, Redlen Technologies is a firm to watch as is has recently opened a newmanufacturing facility in Victoria, British Columbia to expand their production of CdxZn1-xTesingle crystals. The new facility increases the number of crystal growth furnaces to over 300from the current capacity of 50. Also in the CZT area, GE Healthcare purchased Orbotech ofIsrael, which was GE’s source of CZT detectors for GE’s nuclear medicine division.Ultra low cost plastic scintillation materials are widely available from many sources. Nucsafeof Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Radcom of Oakville, Ontario Canada, and SIAC of McLean VA, arefirms that bear watching in this sector. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netE.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Radiation Detection MaterialsExhibits E-1 and E-2 show projections for revenue and volume for scintillation andsemiconductor radiation detectors over the next eight years. The eight-year forecast forrevenue is characterized by relatively steady growth in all sectors. Variables that could Page | 16accelerate growth include nuclear accidents, radiological terror or robust economic worldwidegrowth. Factors that could retard growth from the estimates given include sovereign debtissues affecting major economics, complacency in domestic security if terror threats subside,or a lack of resurgence in the nuclear power industry.The estimates in Exhibits E-1 and E-2 are further broken down in Exhibit E-3, where therevenue projections are shown by sector. The key reason in our opinion for the steady growthis the nature of the two dominant sectors, which are the domestic security and medicalmarkets.Domestic security in the U.S. and Europe is established and has become so engrained in thebureaucracy of these regions that spending in these areas has become non-discretionary andbasically cannot be cut. If a radiological terror attack occurs, the projections in Exhibit E-3 willfor domestic security underestimate growth, and if sovereign debt issues in Europe and theU.S. overwhelm major governments, growth will be slightly less than the projections shown.Growth of domestic security materials will be brisk in the BRIC countries and emerging regionsas these regions upgrade their air travel and port systems to protect themselves from possibleradiological threats.The other dominant sector will be the medical sector, where similar dynamics are in play. Inthe U.S. and Europe, the highly regulated nature of medical delivery will maintain the currenttrend towards increased reliance on radiological imaging for diagnostic medicine, which willdrive steady growth in the scintillation crystal sector for the entire reporting period as shownin Exhibit E-3. Because medicine is highly regulated, it may retard the transition to newermaterials if excessive regulatory issues impede change, but as the component being changedis the detector material and not the nature of the radio nucleotide generating the radiation,regulatory issues should be a minor impediment to improvements in scintillation materials formedical imaging.The other piece of the medical sector that will continue its rapid growth detection materialsfor x-ray imaging as this diagnostic technique transitions from film and phosphors to thin-filmscintillation detectors based on CsI/a-Si thin films. The x-ray imaging sector is undergoing thetransition from film to digital that happened in the photography market in the past 10-15 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netyears. The early adopters have already moved to digital and digital x-ray imaging is nowbecoming main stream. As detector prices continue to drop, the trend will accelerate, withfilm becoming a legacy product within the next 10 years. Page | 17Outside of the domestic security and medical markets, growth will also be steady for othersectors. Geophysical applications in the oil industry will be steady, even in a poor economy asthe demand for oil in emerging regions will support current projected levels of exploration.Military growth will be steady as more advanced dosimeters are distributed to a higherpercentage of the troops and demand for isotope identification equipment and basemonitoring equipment increases. Isotope identification will transition to room temperaturesemiconductor detectors for all but the most exacting applications. Base monitoringequipment will make extensive use of NaI for detection and room temperaturesemiconductors for isotope identification.Nuclear power will see steady growth as emerging regions build nuclear plants. It is unknownif the nuclear renaissance of next-generation plants will happen in the U.S. and Europe, butthe projections below assume a small renaissance with some new capacity, at least in theconstruction stage by the end of the eight year reporting period. Finally, growth of non-nuclear scientific applications should be steady for the entire eight year reporting period.Governments worldwide have made a commitment to support scientific exploration andunless economic turmoil is extreme, spending and growth of radiation detection materials forscientific applications should continue on its current vector.Exhibit E-1 shows projected revenues for all types of radiation. Revenue is given in millions ofdollars.Exhibit E-1 Worldwide Radiation Detection Revenues ($ millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Scintillation detector revenuesSemiconductor detector revenuesTotal© NanoMarkets 2011 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net Worldwide Radiation Detection Revenues 3,500 3,000 Page | 18 2,500 $ Millions 2,000 Semiconductor detector 1,500 revenues 1,000 Scintillation detector 500 revenues 0 20112012201320142015201620172018 © NanoMarkets, LC Total Radiation Detection Revenues 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 $ Millions 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 © NanoMarkets, LCExhibit E-2 shows the projected volume of material for scintillation detectors, thin-filmdetectors and semiconductor detectors. Measurement units differ for each category ofdetector. Volume for scintillators is given in millions of cubic centimeters. For thin-filmscintillators in millions of square centimeters and for semiconductor detectors in thousands ofsquare centimeters. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netExhibit E-2 Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Crystalline scintillation detector volume(millions of cm3)Thin-film scintillation detectors (millions of Page | 19cm2)Semiconductor detector volume(thousands of cm2)© NanoMarkets 2011 Worldwide Radiation Detector Volume 1400 1200 Crystalline scintillation 1000 detector volume 800 (millions/cm3) 600 Thin-film scintillation detectors (millions/cm2) 400 200 Semiconductor detector 0 volume (thousands/cm2) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 © NanoMarkets, LCExhibit E-3 shows projected revenues broken out by sector and radiation type over the nexteight years. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netExhibit E-3 Worldwide Radiation Detector Revenues by Application ($ Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Domestic Security:ScintillationSemiconducting Page | 20Thin-filmTOTALMilitary:ScintillationSemiconductingThin-filmTOTALMedical Imaging:ScintillationSemiconductingThin-filmTOTALNuclear Power:ScintillationSemiconductingThin-filmTOTALGeophysical:ScintillationSemiconductingThin-filmTOTALNon-nuclear power scientific and other:Geophysical:ScintillationSemiconductingTOTALGrand Total© NanoMarkets 2011To obtain a full version of this report please visit our website at www.nanomarkets.net orcontact us at 804-270-4370 or via email at sales@nanomarkets.net. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netChapter One: Introduction1.1 Background to This ReportRadiation detection materials are a category of substances that represent a sector poised for Page | 21significant growth as new options become available in the near future. While currentmaterials such as sodium iodide (NaI), silicon, germanium and gallium arsenide (GaAs) arecurrently used, they are all less than ideal for many existing and proposed new applications.The needs of domestic security forces, the military and nuclear medicine diagnostics for bothhigh performance/higher sensitivity for some applications and the need for less sensitive, lowcost solutions for pervasive monitoring on the other hand present a fertile market for newradiation detection materials. 1.1.1 Scintillations and SemiconductorsRadiation detection materials can be divided into two general categories. Scintillationmaterials are crystals which emit a flash of light when excited by radiation. The scintillationcrystal is paired with a photomultiplier tube which converts the light flash into an electricsignal and records the intensity and quantity of the observed radiation. NaI is the dominatescintillation material used today. Other simple salts (mostly iodides), BGO (Bi3Ge4O12, bismuthgermanium oxide), PVT (polyvinyl toluene), and LYSO (cerium doped lutetium yttriumorthosilicate) are also used in some current commercial applications. While scintillation basedradiation detectors are presently the only practical solution from a cost perspective for largearea or array detectors used for medical imaging and stand-off security applications, theirresolution, efficiency, sensitivity, and cost are all in need of improvement to fully meet thedesired performance for today’s applications.Semiconductor based radiation detectors are the other major class of radiation detectionmaterials. Si, Ge, and GaAs are the dominate detector materials in this class. Whilesemiconductor detectors have much improved resolution and are the only solutions availablefor many high performance applications, their cost is more than ten times that of mostscintillation materials and many require cooling with liquid nitrogen to function. Whileextreme cooling requirements are not an issue for laboratory applications, mobile highresolution applications are in desperate need of a low-cost room temperature radiationdetection solution. CdZnTe is showing promise as a room temperature radiation detector andseveral devices are under development, but techniques to achieve the large single crystalsnecessary for large scale production has proven an elusive goal. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netThrough the 1990s, work to understand the physics of new scintillation and semiconductormaterials proceeded at a relatively leisurely pace and was confined largely to the academicworld, as the development of new materials and engineering of these materials into productswas not economically justified by the commercial demand (with the exception of medical Page | 22imaging, where there was enough demand to justify some movement to develop newmaterials). 1.1.2 9/11 and After: Current Prospects and Markets for Radiation Detection MaterialsThe entire landscape for radiation detection materials changed after 9/11, however, when thethreat of terrorists attacking the U.S. or other modern nations with either a nuclear device oran improvised radiological weapon (dirty bomb) became a viable threat. In response to thisnew threat, the U.S. government implemented laws and policies requiring the placement ofradiation detection equipment at all ports of entry and that mobile and fixed detectionequipment be available to first responders in the U.S. and worldwide for countries that weretargets for international terrorism. In addition, programs such as the Megaports Initiativeseek to place radiation detection equipment at foreign ports in addition to U.S. ports of entry.The growth in radiation detection opportunities from these government-driven applicationshas spurred research into all types of radiation detection materials. Because of thegovernment demand to bring new products to market, the availability of such newlydeveloped materials will likely lead to new demand from civilian applications as well. Thegrowth of civilian markets that results from newly available radiation detection materialscreated from government sponsored work will be similar to much of the early growth of thecivilian silicon semiconductor market, where civilian demand by itself did not justify thecapital expenditure to develop processes and manufacturing equipment.However, once this infrastructure existed (driven by military contracts to develop integratedcircuits for the Minuteman II missile program), the equipment and process knowledge wasleveraged to develop civilian applications of integrated circuits much earlier than would havebeen economically justified had the government demand not existed. This same potentialexists for civilian applications of new radiation detection materials developed for domesticsecurity and military applications.Opportunities abound for new radiation detection materials with improved propertiescompared to the current crop of scintillation and semiconductor substances. No currentmaterial meets all of the needs of today’s applications. Resolution, efficiency, sensitivity andcost are areas of need for almost all current applications. Key areas of improvement from a NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netmaterials perspective for semiconductor detectors include room temperature service, higheravailability and robustness than current materials and improved overall sensitivity andperformance. For the scintillation detectors, higher light output is a key need. Better linearityand improved energy resolution and improved decay times are also properties that would be Page | 23highly beneficial. For the nanocomposites and ceramics, cost and simplified fabricationtechniques are key needs areas.Domestic security applications represent the major source of demand for significantimprovement through discovery and commercialization of new radiation detection materials.Currently, between 11 and 15 million shipping containers from over 600 foreign ports passthrough 370 U.S. ports each year. Radiation portal monitors (RPMs) at all of these sites wereone of the first goals of U.S. Homeland Security post 9/11. While Homeland Security has thisradiation detection equipment in place, the detection rate of false positive alarms due tomischaracterization of natural radiation sources such as ceramics and granite as active threatsis unacceptably high.The first generation of radiation portals was mostly PVT (polyvinyl toluene)-based. The falsepositive rate with this material was extremely high. Much of this infrastructure has now beenreplaced by NaI-based detectors. Typical RPMs contain arrays of approximately 10,000 NaIcrystals in their detectors. While the resolution of NaI is much improved, the false positiverate is still unacceptably high and it remains difficult to resolve the types of radiation beingdetected. Also, the lifetime of NaI is limited. Current estimates for NaI lifetimes in currentRPMs are approximately eight-ten years. Moving to HPGe (high purity germanium) wouldallow the resolution necessary to eliminate nuisance alarms, but the high cost andrequirement of cryocooling caused the HPGe program to be discontinued for U.S. portprotection.Upgrading the current infrastructure in the U.S. represents a significant opportunity forradiation detection materials. Worldwide, the opportunity is even greater, with over 270million cargo containers being moved between worldwide ports each year. The firstgeneration of detection portals cost approximately $1.2 billion for 1,400 portals. While theU.S. Megaports Initiative has a goal of pre-inspection of all incoming cargo at foreign ports,the incoming inspection rate is less than 10 percent today. Between upgrades to U.S.infrastructure and Megaports-driven foreign demand, the consumption of advanced detectionmaterials will exhibit robust growth for the foreseeable future. Of the over $1 billion in R&Dspending by Homeland Security, over $100 million in fiscal 2012 has been approved forradiation detection research. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.net 1.1.2 Imaging and Other MarketsSmall-scale detection: Beyond the RPM markets, other categories of radiation detectionequipment with significant growth opportunities include personal radiation detectors (PRDs),radioactive isotope identification devices (RIIDs), and non-invasive imaging (NII) systems. Page | 24Non-invasive imaging is a separate technology and will not be included in this report. PRDsare small, hand-held or pocket devices that detect gamma rays and can give information onradiation intensity. RIID’s are larger devices (from .5 to 25 lbs) that include a gamma rayspectrometer that can determine isotopic identities. They often also contain neutrondetectors. PRDs represent a potential mass market if prices can be reduced to acceptablelevels, while RIID’s represent a significant market for all types of first responders and will havesignificant military demand. Based on data from recent years, it is expected thatdomestic/internal security applications will sustain their growth rate of between 10 and 13percent over the next eight years. Around 50 percent of the market for PRDs and RIIDs is inNorth America.Geophysical applications: Radiation detectors for geophysical applications (mainly oil welllogging) represent another market where the current materials fall short of meeting thedesired radiation detection needs of the end user. Geophysical applications present someunique use conditions compared to many other applications. Detectors for geophysicalapplications must work in a wider range of temperatures and be less shock sensitive thanother applications. While NaI has been the standard material, its shock and moisturesensitivity and the need for improved resolution have driven the search for other materials.Lanthanum bromide (LaBr) and lanthanum chloride (LaCl) are now being used for manygeophysical applications. Lanthanum bromide provides double the light output and twice theresolution of NaI at high temperatures. However, LaBr requires titanium housings andsapphire window assemblies for peak performance. Further improvements to light output,reductions in decay time and improved shock insensitivity will be beneficial for geophysicalapplications.Medical imaging: Medical imaging represents a significant opportunity for existing and newradiation detection materials. The recent approval for reimbursement of PET and SPECT byMedicare for Alzheimer’s patients is a major driving force for near term demand. Year on yeargrowth in this sector for the foreseeable future is in the 8-10 percent range. Of the overallPET/SPECT market, PET represents approximately 75 percent of total revenue.Several different materials are currently used for PET. BGO allows for a design that isacceptable in performance, economical to build and easy to pack. Each BGO crystal is sawed NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netinto an array to direct light towards the photo multiplier tube. Such designs offerapproximately 5-mm spatial resolution. Siemens currently uses LSO (lutetium orthosilicate)for their PET machines. Other manufacturers use LYSO as the radiation detector material.For SPECT systems, NaI is the dominate radiation detection material. Key issues that new Page | 25materials could effectively address for these high performance imaging machines areincreased signal to noise ratio, increased efficiency, reduced decay time and lower cost. Froma performance perspective, improving timing resolution of current materials would allow highresolution time of flight (TOF) techniques to be more widely adopted.1.2 Objective and Scope of this ReportThe objective of this report is to give a detailed analysis of the current and emerging trends inradiation detection materials. This report will discuss the opportunities and innovations inmaterials that will result in a great expansion in both applications and volume of radiationdetection materials used over the next eight years.In this report, we review radiation detection materials by type (scintillation andsemiconducting) and by application (domestic security, military, medical imaging, geophysicaland scientific R&D). The report will discuss the status and expected development roadmapfor both scintillation and semiconducting detector materials for each application type withforecasts on new materials and improvement in manufacturing techniques such as crystalgrowth and processing improvements that will be available in the near future.We provide an in-depth review of current commercialization efforts by firms that are focusedon both specific materials and the opportunities for each type of material as it is integratedinto products for different uses. While covering the leading efforts in all significant areas ofradiation detection materials development, we have not provided detailed profiles of all firmswith any radiation detection materials activities given that there are many firms that arecurrently active in this area in at least some capacity.The report also contains detailed forecasts of each class of radiation detection materials, interms of revenues and volume, as well as by geography. It is international in scope. Theforecasts are worldwide and there has been no geographic selectivity in the firms covered orinterviewed in the collection of information for this report.1.3 Methodology of this ReportThe primary sources for the opinions and conclusions cited in this report on the emergingmaterials and markets for radiation detection materials include extensive interviews with NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • NanoMarkets www.nanomarkets.netvarious industry and academic sources carried out in the second quarter of 2011. Secondaryresearch for this report was also taken from information available on the World Wide Web,commercial and government databases, trade and press articles, technical literature,information learned at technical conferences and trade shows, SEC filings and other corporate Page | 26literature. The forecasting approach taken in this report is explained in more detail in ChapterFour.1.4 Plan of this ReportIn Chapter Two of this report, we discuss worldwide trends that are impacting the demand fornew radiation detection materials, including the materials needs for the major applicationcategories including medical, domestic security, military, nuclear power and geophysical. Ananalysis of the industry structure from a materials perspective and the current and futurerequirements for device makers will be presented. A discussion of trends in crystal growthtechniques critical for large scale applications of some of the major radiation detectionmaterials, as well as opportunities for raw chemical suppliers to the radiation detectionmaterials makers is also included. Chapter Two concludes with an analysis of the key R&Dtrends in radiation detection materials.Chapter Three presents a survey of all of the key classes of radiation detection materials.Simple salt scintillation materials, oxide-based scintillation materials, plastic/organic polymer-based scintillation materials, silicate-based and yttrium-based materials will be covered. Thesemiconductor-based materials Including silicon, germanium, selenides and tellurides ofcadmium and cadmium/zinc as well as gallium arsenide, indium phosphide and hightemperature semiconductor materials are also covered. Chapter Three concludes with adiscussion of new ceramic and nanocomposite materials.In Chapter Four, we provide detailed forecasts of the markets for radiation detectionmaterials for each of the major classes of applications covered in this report. In this chapter,we project the market forward in both volume and value terms by geography, with breakoutsby application and material type. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967 | FAX: 804-360-7259