Substrates and Encapsulation for BIPV
 

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This report identifies the opportunities for encapsulation and substrate materials and systems in the emerging building-integrated PV (BIPV) market. NanoMarkets believes that the BIPV sector will be ...

This report identifies the opportunities for encapsulation and substrate materials and systems in the emerging building-integrated PV (BIPV) market. NanoMarkets believes that the BIPV sector will be the fastest growing part of the solar industry in the next decade, but that demand patterns for encapsulation and substrate materials from this sector will be different from the traditional PV industry.

Even though glass will be the most widely used material for both encapsulation and substrates in the BIPV sector, special coatings may be required as the result of the use of novel absorber materials in BIPV. In addition, NanoMarkets believes that in the emerging BIPV market there will be a considerable trend toward flexible PV because of its ability to offer lightweight installation and improved aesthetics. On the one hand this means new opportunities for suppliers of special metal substrates. But it will also require cost effective flexible encapsulation systems.

With all this in mind, in this report, NanoMarkets quantifies the new business revenues that will be generated by novel substrates in the BIPV sector as well as by advanced multi-layer encapsulation systems, including the new breed of encapsulation system that makes use of atomic layer deposition (ALD). The report also discusses how, as monolithic integration becomes more common in BIPV, specialist encapsulation systems will be required to protect the relatively delicate CIGS, OPV and DSC absorber materials that will be used in such products.

Finally, the report takes a look at how the leading suppliers of encapsulation products are viewing BIPV as a market for their products. In addition, this report includes a granular eight-year forecast of the BIPV encapsulation and substrate markets in volume and value terms.

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Substrates and Encapsulation for BIPV Document Transcript

  • 1. NanoMarkets ReportSubstrates and Encapsulationfor BIPVNano-539Published May 2012
  • 2. Table of ContentsExecutive Summary ........................................................................................................................1 E.1 Emerging Opportunities for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation? .................................................1 E.1.1 Glass Will Continue to Dominate .....................................................................................1 Page | i E.1.2 Advanced Encapsulation Systems Will Increasingly be Needed ....................................1 E.2 What Changes in Demand for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Will Occur in the Next Five Years? ..................................................................................................................................2 E.2.1 The Growing Importance of Atomic Layer Deposition .....................................................3 E.2.2 Trends Towards Advanced Substrates ...........................................................................4 E.3 Future Trends and Opportunities in BIPV Glass Encapsulation .....................................5 E.4 Niche Opportunities for Encapsulating CIGS, OPV, and DSC BIPV products ...............6 E.5 Key Firms to Watch ..............................................................................................................7 E.5.1 Glass Firms ......................................................................................................................7 E.5.2 Multilayer and ALD Barrier Firms ....................................................................................7 E.6 Reducing Costs and Creating Value in BIPV with Encapsulation Technology .............8 E.7 Summary of the Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Materials for BIPV ..............................................................................................................................................8 E.7.1 Rigid BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation ................................................................... 10 E.7.2 Flexible BIPV Encapsulation and Substrates ............................................................... 11 E.7.3 BIPV Glass Encapsulation and Substrates .................................................................. 12Chapter One: Introduction .......................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Background to this Report ................................................................................................ 13 1.1.1 Flexible Module Encapsulation Opportunities ............................................................... 13 1.1.2 Rigid Module Encapsulation Opportunities ................................................................... 16 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................... 17 1.3 Methodology of this Report .............................................................................................. 18 1.4 Plan of this Report ............................................................................................................. 18Chapter Two: Current and Evolving Encapsulation Technologies for BIPV Markets .......... 19 2.1 Alternatives to Glass Encapsulation: Metals and Polymers ......................................... 19 2.1.1 Polymer Films: How Costs Can Come Down ............................................................... 19 2.1.2 Metal Options: Steel and Aluminum .............................................................................. 20 2.1.3 Ceramic Films: Advantages and Disadvantages .......................................................... 21 2.2 Flexible Encapsulants for BIPV ........................................................................................ 22 2.3 The Dyad Option: Best of Both Worlds, But at What Cost? .......................................... 22 2.4 The Special Needs of CIGS and OPV/DSC BIPV ............................................................. 24
  • 3. 2.4.1 CIGS and OPV/DSC in BIPV ........................................................................................ 25 2.4.2 Current and Future Encapsulation Trends in CIGS and OPV/DSC BIPV .................... 26 2.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter ...................................................................................... 29Chapter Three: Current and Evolving Encapsulation Technologies for BIPV Markets ........ 31 Page | ii 3.1 The Limits of Glass Encapsulation for BIPV ................................................................... 31 3.1.1 Changing Requirements for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation ................................................ 31 3.1.2 Changing Requirements for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation ............................................ 34 3.1.3 Changing Requirements for BIPV Glass Encapsulation ............................................... 37 3.2 New Opportunities for Glass in BIPV Encapsulation ..................................................... 37 3.2.1 Opportunities for Flexible Glass in BIPV ....................................................................... 40 3.3 The Future of Plastic Film and Other Advanced Encapsulation Systems in BIPV ..... 40 3.4 Encapsulation of BIPV on Sheet Steel and Aluminum ................................................... 41 3.5 Encapsulation of BIPV on Other Roofing and Siding Materials .................................... 43 3.6 A Roadmap for Encapsulation in BIPV ............................................................................ 43 3.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter ...................................................................................... 44Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Markets for BuildingIntegrated Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................. 47 4.1 Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................................. 47 4.1.1 Information Sources ...................................................................................................... 48 4.1.2 Scope of the Forecast ................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Forecasts for BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation ........................................................ 49 4.2.1 Forecast for Rigid BIPV Module Substrates ................................................................. 50 4.2.2 Forecast for Rigid BIPV Module Encapsulation ............................................................ 58 4.2.3 Forecast for Flexible BIPV Module Substrates ............................................................. 64 4.2.4 Forecast for Flexible BIPV Module Encapsulation ........................................................ 70 4.2.5 Forecasts of BIPV Glass Substrates and Encapsulation .............................................. 72 4.3 Summary of Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 81 Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ............................................................... 85 About the Author ...................................................................................................................... 86 List of ExhibitsExhibit E-1: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulant Revenues by BIPV Module Type ...................9Exhibit 4-1: Substrate Materials for Crystalline Silicon Rigid BIPV Cells ....................................... 51Exhibit 4-2: Cost for Substrates Used in PV ($ per square meter) .. Error! Bookmark not defined.Exhibit 4-3: Substrate Materials for TF-Si Rigid BIPV Cells .......................................................... 53
  • 4. Exhibit 4-4: Substrate Materials for TF CdTe Rigid BIPV Cells ..................................................... 54Exhibit 4-5: Substrate Materials for TF CIGS Rigid BIPV Cells ..................................................... 55Exhibit 4-6: Substrate Materials for TF OPV/DSC Rigid BIPV Cells ............................................. 56Exhibit 4-7: Total Rigid BIPV Substrate Material Revenues by Material Type ............................. 57Exhibit 4-8: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV c-Si PV Cells ............................................... 58 Page | iiiExhibit 4-9: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV Thin-Film Si PV Cells .................................. 59Exhibit 4-10: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV CdTe PV Cells ........................................... 60Exhibit 4-11: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV CIGS PV Cells ........................................... 61Exhibit 4-12: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV OPV/DSC PV Cells .................................... 62Exhibit 4-13: Total Rigid BIPV Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type ..................... 63Exhibit 4-14: Substrate Materials for TF Si Flexible BIPV Cells .................................................... 66Exhibit 4-15: Substrate Materials for TF CdTe Flexible BIPV Cells .............................................. 67Exhibit 4-16: Substrate Materials for TF CIGS Flexible BIPV Cells ............................................... 68Exhibit 4-17: Substrate Materials for TF OPV/DSC Flexible BIPV Cells ....................................... 69Exhibit 4-18: Total flexible BIPV Substrate Material Revenues by Material Type ........................ 70Exhibit 4-19: Total Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type ................ 71Exhibit 4-20: Substrate Materials for BIPV Glass Cells by Absorber Type .................................... 74Exhibit 4-21: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass c-Si PV Cells ............................................ 75Exhibit 4-22: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass Thin-Film Si PV Cells ................................ 76Exhibit 4-23: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass CdTe PV Cells .......................................... 77Exhibit 4-24: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass CIGS PV Cells .......................................... 78Exhibit 4-25: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass OPV/DSC PV Cells ................................... 79Exhibit 4-26: Total BIPV Glass Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type .................... 80Exhibit 4-27: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulation Revenue by BIPV Module Type ............. 82
  • 5. Executive SummaryE.1 Emerging Opportunities for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation?Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) represent an emerging opportunity for developers andproviders of encapsulation and substrate materials. BIPV comes in three flavors: Page | 1  Rigid modules that integrate as part of the building skin or roofing materials;  Flexible BIPV modules that function much in the same manner as rigid modules, but can be fitted to curved surfaces or are attractive for their being low weight; and  BIPV glass, which consists of architectural glasses used in building construction that have PV functionality integrated within them. E.1.1 Glass Will Continue to DominateFor rigid and glass modules, glass will be the dominate substrate material. The key opportunityhere is adding PV to the building materials, which enhances the final product, but is relatively lowin cost compared to the cost of the final product. For flexible modules, there are developmentopportunities for new flexible materials with improved barrier properties to moisture and oxygenbeyond those commonly available today for integration of CIGS and OPV/DSC absorbermaterials.The near-term market for rigid BIPV encapsulation will be dominated by the same material usedin the rigid modules of today, namely glass. Glass will continue to be the king for the foreseeablefuture. Compared to other options, it is inexpensive and provides a hermetic seal, and thicktempered modules are robust to weather and wear.Over the period covered by this report, BIPV and its associated encapsulation/substrates willcomplete their transformation to truly integrated cells within roofing panels or siding materials.Because the cells will be fully integrated and not replaceable without replacing the entire buildingmaterial, encapsulation such as glass will need to be thicker and tempered to reduce breakage tomeet a 30-year outdoor lifetime specification. E.1.2 Advanced Encapsulation Systems Will Increasingly be NeededBIPV also provides a higher margin market for both advanced absorber materials and the highperformance barriers and substrates that will be required as CIGS and OPV/DSC enter the BIPVmarketplace. BIPV modules that function as both a building skin and a PV module are anexample where encapsulation returns can be much more attractive compared to commodity panelmarkets.Currently, the encapsulation requirements are not that great for the c-Si modules and a-Si BIPVmodules on the market. As CIGS gains traction in the marketplace, however, BIPV tiles that cancreate attractive monolithic high-end facades and attractive roofing materials will requireenhanced barriers.
  • 6. Rigid BIPV encapsulation: Four factors will be the keys to success for rigid BIPV:  Aesthetics,  Overall building cost,  Image, and Page | 2  Product marketing emphasis.The encapsulation roadmap of improved dyad-based or atomic layer deposition (ALD)-basedbarriers will help enable three of these areas.  First, from an aesthetics point of view, advanced barriers will allow high efficiency thin-film CIGS to be a viable rigid module absorber for use in monolithic panels of any shape.  From an overall cost perspective, CIGS-based thin-film modules will be lighter than current options, particularly if thinner, laminated glasses can be used as the top encapsulation material.  Finally, the ability to produce monolithic panels of any shape will improve the image of BIPV solar from one of slapping ugly rack panels on walls or roofs to one of an attractive building material that architects can integrate into striking building facades.OPV/DSC issues and opportunities: One additional trend that will be seen as OPV begins toramp to volume and become used in the rigid BIPV space will be an opportunity for glassmanufacturers to add specialty coatings.  Already, ITO and AZO coated glass can be purchased to relieve module manufacturers from the cost of adding these materials.  As time goes on, the extreme barrier requirements of OPV/DSC for BIPV applications will challenge the barrier properties of glass. NanoMarkets predicts that it will be common for glass substrates for OPV/DSC BIPV to be pre-coated with an ALD barrier before the clear conductor layer, and this enhanced value material will then be sold to BIPV module manufacturers.E.2 What Changes in Demand for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Will Occur in the Next Five Years?New and improved encapsulation solutions for integrated BIPV products based on CIGSabsorbers will be the biggest change in the landscape for flexible BIPV over the next five years.Currently, a-Si is the absorber of choice for flexible BIPV modules, precisely becauseencapsulation solutions for flexible CIGS have not been available in large volumes in the past,and are now just entering the market at a level necessary and at a cost point that makeseconomic sense.Flexible PV modules with CIGS as the absorber, and flexible CIGS BIPV modules, have been"just around the corner" for almost a decade now.
  • 7.  The initial factor that slowed development and commercial production was identification of CIGS deposition processes that were manufacturable.  The second gating factor that kept flexible CIGS of all types, and not just BIPV, from widespread adoption was the encapsulation/substrate question. While a-Si modules 2 encapsulation requirements for moisture are in the 1E-3 to 1E-4 g/m /day range, the Page | 3 2 water transmission rate for CIGS needs to be on the order of 1E-5 to 1E-6 g/m day. All of the single-layer polymeric flexible solutions available that are acceptable for a-Si absorbers prove to be less than adequate from a barrier perspective for CIGS and OPV absorbers.Grain boundaries in plasma deposited nitride and pinholes in polymeric films are the root cause ofthe unacceptable barrier/encapsulation performance of present single-layer encapsulation. Theinitial solution to this problem was the introduction of dyad barrier systems. These systemscombine layers of two different types of materials—generally a polymer and a ceramic—inalternating fashion, typically for multiple dyads or layer pairs. The idea is for the ceramic to plugpinholes in and slow diffusion through the polymer, while the polymer seals the defects in theceramic.The more layers that are built up, the more the moisture penetration is reduced. Three or fourlayers are necessary for CIGS PV. The high cost of dyad films comes mainly from the multiplevacuum depositions required for the ceramic layers, and for the large number of process stepsthat are added. Vacuum deposition requires costly equipment and high energy levels and suffersfrom low throughput. Costs are similar to transparent conducting electrodes such as aluminum-doped zinc oxide (AZO) for CIGS PV, but need to be done multiple times. E.2.1 The Growing Importance of Atomic Layer DepositionBecause of the inherent cost of the dyadic solutions, alternatives are actively being explored. Thelatest trend is to move from plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) systems withmany layers to Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) barrier films with one or two layers of alternatingpolymer and inorganic ceramic layer.ALD is widely used in the semiconductor industry to produce barrier materials. Two issues needto be overcome, however, to make ALD processing economically viable for BIPV applications.  First is the deposition rate. As an atomic layer deposition technique, the deposition rate is low.  The second issue is scaling up the process from one that is currently dominated by tools designed for batch deposition on a 12-inch silicon wafer with few thermal budget requirements to one viable for roll-to-roll (R2R) processing on low thermal budget polymer substrates.Recent work reported by the DOE and DuPont have demonstrated that a single 10- to 25- nm 2ALD film deposited on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) at 125°C achieved 1E-4 g/m /day barrierperformance for moisture. The films showed less than 2 percent degradation in efficiency ofCIGS flexible modules at 1,000 hrs in 85°C/85 percent humidity. The 85/85 requirement is part ofthe international IEC61646 standard for package level reliability.
  • 8. The long-term trend for the encapsulation stack of flexible BIPV, in NanoMarkets opinion, willconsist of a heavy weathering film on top, a thin barrier layer based on one or two ALD layers, athick polymer encapsulation layer, the active PV layers, and finally a flexible substrate. Targetmaterials include a 2-mil fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) for the weathering layer, a 25-nmALD Al2O3 layer on a UV-PET encapsulant, and a CIGS cell on either a polyimide or steelsubstrate. Page | 4For the encapsulant under the barrier layer, the trend is towards ionomer films and away frompolyvinyl butyral (PVB) and ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA):  The ionomer films in general show much better resistance to moisture ingress compared to the other film types  Future work in the encapsulant area is focusing on optimizing transmission, UV stability, adhesion, and moisture transport  The next generation of advanced ionomers is currently undergoing prototype evaluations with both CIGS and organic PV absorber layers. E.2.2 Trends Towards Advanced SubstratesFor flexible BIPV modules, in addition to advances in barrier technology, there will also beopportunities for advanced substrates.Metal substrates: Metal substrates, which were the first widely adopted flexible substrates forthin-film PV, will continue to dominate flexible BIPV substrates:  Stainless steel and aluminum are favored for their strength, inertness, thermal budget to withstand absorber deposition conditions, and relatively low cost  Metal foils for flexible thin-film PV substrates also provide better encapsulation than polymers for the back side of the cell.Because of the temperature deposition requirements of CIGS, cost reductions and theimprovement of current stainless steel substrates are being evaluated. Glass-coated stainlesssteel provides many attractive features from an integration standpoint:  It is thermally stable, dimensionally stable, flexible for BIPV applications, an ion barrier because of the glass coating, and has good surface smoothness for subsequent depositions  The latest generation of glass-coated steel also allows monolithic integration  Molybdenum back conductors can be deposited on the glass for growth of CIGS with current deposition methods.It will be exciting to watch the growth of BIPV modules based on advanced barriers andsubstrates. The two most notable flexible, fully-integrated products in development are DowChemicals new "Dow Powerhouse Solar Shingle"—based on CIGS PV cells from Global Solarand targeted for volume sales in 2012, and Corus steel roofing with incorporated DSC cells from
  • 9. Dyesol. The Powerhouse shingle was first on sale in Colorado in 2011 and sales availability hasnow expanded to California and Texas.These two products produce some unique value propositions and opportunities that set themapart from current BIPV shingle and metal roofing products that rely on a-Si PV. Given theseinitial forays into the market, NanoMarkets predicts that, over the next five years, overall demand Page | 5for advanced flexible BIPV encapsulation and substrates will jump from 0.53 million squaremeters in 2012 to 9.4 million square meters in 2017.E.3 Future Trends and Opportunities in BIPV Glass EncapsulationBecause glass is such a good encapsulation material, it is, and will remain, the dominant BIPVencapsulation material, with new opportunities as BIPV becomes more prevalent in themarketplace.From an encapsulation point of view, the changes for glass encapsulation will be slight over theperiod covered by this report, but from a revenue perspective, the opportunity is extremelyinviting. Because the cost of architectural glass substrates is high, the added cost of PV is asmall, but the perceived enhancement of the product is large, and thus the outlook for BIPVarchitectural glass is extremely bright.While glass is an ideal choice for many BIPV encapsulation needs, it does have some limits withrespect to the advanced absorber materials on the horizon:  For c-Si, a-Si and CdTe, its barrier qualities are more than adequate.  With the 30-year life requirement for BIPV, it starts to become marginal with CIGS and its moisture requirements, and begins to require additional protection in the case of OPV, where both extreme moisture and oxygen barrier requirements are needed.For robust BIPV solutions with CIGS, and especially OPV, additional barrier protection will likelybe needed to be added to current glass substrates.Transparent integrated BIPV glass modules represent another significant trend for glass BIPV:  For current transparent glass applications, a-Si is the dominant material, and glass as encapsulant and substrate is suitable for this application.  Further out, OPV is likely to dominate transparent BIPV applications. Here, new coatings for glass will be necessary.Coating architectural glass is nothing new; what is different about this technology is the type andvalue of the coating. Dyad films, for instance, will be both new and high-value coatings for glass.Their adoption will only occur, however, if they provide the solution that is required to enable thelonger lifetimes needed for OPV to access this market.Another trend will be in the area of transparent substrates for CIGS. An opportunity exists tointegrate a transparent back conductor with a work function high enough for use with CIGS(perhaps micrometallic mesh) with a glass or a polyimide as an integrated substrate material foruse as part of a CIGS semi-transparent BIPV cell.
  • 10. E.4 Niche Opportunities for Encapsulating CIGS, OPV, and DSC BIPV productsWhile the entire market for encapsulation of BIPV CIGS, OPV, and DSC could be thought of asniche at this point in time, within that niche market, rigid CIGS, glass CIGS and OPV/DSC, andflexible CIGS for roofing and facades will be the dominant applications. For these applications,the customer base will skew towards large office buildings, signature private and public spaces,and large-scale roofing applications. Page | 6One likely niche area for encapsulation is heavy duty encapsulation for off-grid buildingapplications. The off-grid applications will require a higher level of robustness than normalcommercial BIPV, as the off-grid applications will need to function over the 30-year life span withthe expectation of no maintenance and likely in more extreme weather conditions than typicalBIPV materials.Module weight is also critical in these off-grid applications, most of which are remote from dividedhighways or paving at all. Many of these materials may need to be delivered by helicopter, andtherefore weight is a significant concern. Additionally, BIPV products type would be of a modularvariety to aid in construction at remote sites.For weight considerations, compared to glass-based modules, off-grid encapsulation forCIGS/OPV/DSC will likely trend almost exclusively towards flexible polyimide substrates, thickionomer encapsulation with a multi-layer dyadic ultra barrier with at least 1.5 times the number ofdyads as a typical barrier (UV-PET film). While normal BIPV flexible units are then covered with a2-mil FEP final layer, off-grid application encapsulation would likely have a 3-4 mil final FEPbarrier.Markets for such lightweight BIPV modules with enhanced encapsulation would be off-gridhomes, remote military outposts, and permanent oil and gas field operations buildings. One otherarea where they may have some application is in regions of developing nations that currentlyhave no electricity.An example of a type of product that may benefit from BIPV with extra-duty encapsulation is onesimilar to Panasonics Life Innovation Container, which is basically a cargo container with solarcells that has been adapted to have refrigeration for medicine and cellular/Internetcommunication. It has enough electrical storage capacity to maintain the refrigeration andcommunications 24 hours a day. The Life Innovation Container is designed to provide some levelof electricity to villages in developing countries that currently have no access to electricity orcommunications.An issue with the solar cells in these units is that they are typically rack-mounted cells that can bedamaged in harsh off-grid conditions and can easily be removed/stolen. Transitioning to buildingintegrated panels with enhanced encapsulation for such units would be a means of providing asolar cell that is more resistant to the elements and abuse than glass cells and, being a buildingintegrated product, would be much less likely or impossible to steal without destroying the solarcell itself.While not a huge market, this application represents a niche end-use for custom-enhancedencapsulation for CIGS in the near term, and OPV/DSC very late in the period covered by thisreport.
  • 11. E.5 Key Firms to Watch E.5.1 Glass FirmsNanoMarkets projects that for the timeframe of this report, glass-based encapsulation willcontinue to dominate. For this reason, opportunities for glass firms will be abundant, especiallyfor those that can provide significant improvements in getter/epoxy configurations, reduce weight Page | 7and cost, and improve manufacturing processes.The big glass firms like Nippon Electric Glass (Japan), Nippon Sheet Glass (Japan), Asahi GlassCompany (Japan), Corning (U.S.), and Schott (Germany) clearly have the advantage in thissector. E.5.2 Multilayer and ALD Barrier FirmsDespite the apparent lack of progress in multilayer dyads over the last five years or so, their greatpromise for reducing costs has meant that many firms have continued to pursue them. The firmsto watch are those that are focusing on reducing costs without sacrificing performance, such asby reducing the number of dyads (or layers) required to hit the barrier performance targets.In addition to GE, which makes its own (flexible) multilayer barrier encapsulation, the key firms towatch in this space are 3M (U.S.), Tera-Barrier Films (Singapore), Beneq (Finland), CambridgeNanoTech (U.S.) and DuPont (U.S.).  3M: 3M is pursuing bendable encapsulation films suitable for R2R manufacturing. The company currently markets an Ultra Barrier solar film that is compatible for CIGS applications, but does not have the moisture or barrier performance necessary for OPV/DSC applications.  Tera-Barrier Films: Tera-Barrier Films has also been developing multilayer dyad films with a development focus on R2R barrier coatings for flexible PV applications. At this point in time, Teras films have not been scaled commercially, but the company reports that it is working with partners and customers in both Asia and Europe, and hopes to see its films in commercial products within the next year.  The key differentiator of Tera-Barriers technology is that it can achieve high barrier performance with only a few layers, which keeps the anticipated costs low. Of course, this performance is currently achieved using slow-speed sputtering, and it remains to be seen whether Tera can translate its small-scale, pilot successes into faster, larger-scale, truly low-cost production, which it hopes to be able to do using electron-beam technology.  Cambridge Nanotech: While the technical challenges of ultra barrier deposition in our opinion tend to favor large multinationals with the capital resources to pay for fairly costly development of both new tools and processes and wait for a payoff that is multiple years down the road, there are some small companies that are successful today, and may be able to expand in the ALD deposition tool space. Cambridge Nanotech of Boston is one such firm. Even though it is small (less than 100 employees), it has delivered over 300 ALD systems worldwide since being founded in 2003. Most of these are small systems for university and industrial laboratory research,
  • 12. but its level of expertise in the area may make it a firm to watch as ALD for CIGS and OPV become mainstream solar technologies.  Beneq: Beneq of Finland is another smaller company that has a presence in ALD. The company has around 200 employees and is focused on ALD barrier and TCO materials deposition. Beneq has introduced a true roll-to-roll ALD deposition tool. In April of 2012, Page | 8 it received a €25 million investment from RUSNANO. Sales for 2011 were about €18 million.  DuPont: DuPont is actively working on ALD solutions or BIPV CIGS and OPV/DSC absorbers in collaboration with the DOE.E.6 Reducing Costs and Creating Value in BIPV with Encapsulation TechnologyThe key to reducing costs for BIPV encapsulation technology is twofold:  The first goal is to develop a manufacturable ALD process. Then, the ultra barriers necessary for CIGS and OPV can move from the current dyadic systems with four to eight depositions of alternating ceramic nitride and polymers to ALD barriers that consist of one layer of polymer and one layer of ALD aluminum oxide. This move will be key for cost reduction from a technical point of view.  The second goal is to move the ALD processes from the laboratory and prototyping phase, where most are still batch depositions, to roll-to-roll processes on wide flexible substrates.The first step is to finalize on an ALD process for the ultra barrier and ionomer encapsulationstack that is suitable for OPV and CIGS. Once this process is established, it becomes a matter oftransitioning from batch processing and developing the tools to take R2R deposition of such filmsfrom current prototypes of over a few inches to ones with a width of 2-4 feet.E.7 Summary of the Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Materials for BIPVExhibit E-1 summarizes the overall market for BIPV substrates and encapsulation materialsthrough 2019. From a revenue perspective, this market is dominated by PV integrated in high-end architectural glass. The value proposition here is that, by adding PV to expensivearchitectural glass, where the cost of the PV integrated product is similar to the architectural glassalone, the PV module that would be difficult to justify as an add on to a structure can be viewed asa premium product for application to Green/LEED certified facilities.From a new materials perspective, while the revenue is not as great as the BIPV glass space, theflexible module BIPV space provides an economic model that justifies the development of newdeposition methods and processing equipment to support high-volume manufacturing of dyadicand ALD ultra barrier materials.The development of manufacturable ultra barrier dyadic, multilayer systems and ALD ceramicbarriers are both gates to widespread use of CIGS and OPV/DSC in flexible applications, asthese barriers are the only flexible encapsulation solutions on the horizon that have the barrierproperties necessary for providing CIGS and OPV/DSC with adequate protection against moisture
  • 13. and oxygen. If these barriers and encapsulation materials are not developed in a timely manner,it could severely retard CIGS and OPV/DSC flexible module growth.Exhibit E-1: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulant Revenues by BIPV Module Type Page | 9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Sq meters rigid BIPV substratesSq meters flexible BIPV substratesSq meters glass BIPV substratesTotal sq meters BIPV substratesSubstrate Revenues from BIPV ($ Millions):Revenue from rigid BIPV substratesRevenue from flexible BIPV substratesRevenue from glass BIPV substratesTotal revenue from BIPV substratesEncapsulation Revenues from BIPV ($ Millions):Revenue from rigid BIPV encapsulationRevenue from flexible BIPV encapsulationRevenue from glass BIPV encapsulationTotal BIPV encapsulation revenueTotal market for BIPV Substrates andEncapsulation($ Millions)© NanoMarkets 2012 Substrate Revenues from BIPV 6,000 5,000 4,000 $ Millions 3,000 Glass BIPV substrates Flexible BIPV substrates 2,000 Rigid BIPV substrates 1,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © NanoMarkets 2012
  • 14. Total Market for BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation 6,000 Page | 10 5,000 4,000 $ Millions 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © NanoMarkets 2012 E.7.1 Rigid BIPV Substrates and EncapsulationRigid BIPV products are the "classic" form of BIPV; the first kind developed as a more aestheticway to mount PV panels on buildings. And they continue to be the most popular "off-the-shelf"type of BIPV installed worldwide. We include in this category the substrate and encapsulationpredictions for panels that are designed specifically for flush mounting on rooftops for visualintegration.In the near-term, the encapsulation needs will be less demanding for this type of module, as theywill be dominated by c-Si and use rigid glass for substrates and encapsulation. For most of theperiod under consideration in this report, only one material, c-Si, will have significant penetrationin the rigid BIPV area. By 2018, however, all of the materials will begin to make inroads, withCdTe rising to the second best results, with the successful launch of new products anticipated inthe 2012-2013 timeframe.From a substrate and encapsulation point of view, the rigid module space is most like thecommodity panel space, and is dominated by glass with c-Si and CdTe absorbers. Becausethese absorbers are the least sensitive to moisture and oxygen and are not required to be flexible,current glass technology is more than adequate for substrate and encapsulation use. From thatperspective, there is less of a high value opportunity in this area than in the flexible module andBIPV glass space.
  • 15. Later in the reporting period, there will be some volumes of CIGS and a little of OPV/DSC, whichwill need improved encapsulation technologies. Within the next few years, CIGS PV will begin totarget the rigid BIPV market in a meaningful way, beginning with flush panels that overlay existingroofing. CIGS will require some of the more advanced dyad and ALD barrier and encapsulationtechnologies that will be used in higher volumes for flexible modules and will represent anopportunity for advanced encapsulation manufacturers. Page | 11 E.7.2 Flexible BIPV Encapsulation and SubstratesFlexible BIPV products are the newest type of BIPV on the scene, and in many ways the mostexotic. Because of their flexible nature, standard glass is not a viable substrate or encapsulationmaterial. Flexible BIPV, therefore, is an area where the biggest opportunities are from theperspective of developing and integrating new encapsulation and substrate materials.While current flexible substrate and encapsulation options are relatively expensive compared tocommodity panels, which limits their attractiveness as standalone options, when flexible PV isintegrated in building materials, the cost is less of the overall bill of materials, and thus isattractive where flexible building materials can be taken advantage of, as in the case of roofingand siding/facade construction materials.While part of the appeal of flexible BIPV products is their novelty, they also provide morefundamental benefits:  Resiliency,  Compatibility with many types of building materials that are inherently flexible  The ability to be delivered and installed in long strips or rolls without the risk of breakage.In the near term, flexible modules that can be rolled out on flat roofs will be an early market.Shingles with integrated PV is also an area where several manufacturers are introducingproducts.We have reduced our initial volume forecasts for fully-integrated flexible BIPV products comparedto last years forecasts because of continued poor construction markets; the standalonelaminates—better suited to retrofits—have taken up some of the slack. However, later in theforecast period, we have increased our projections for volumes of the fully-integrated products, inlarge part because CIGS PV products are looking more serious.The most rapid growth opportunities here are for the CIGS and DSC PV technologies. CdTe PVmay also turn toward flexible BIPV, although it will be the last of the three BIPV routes that theindustry will take. However, if First Solar chooses to get into the flexible BIPV space, such a movewould dramatically alter the current forecast.Among the flexible thin-films, CIGS BIPV laminates and shingles appear best positioned in themarket. Also of note is the trend toward using building materials as actual flexible substrates forBIPV, led by DSC maker Dyesol and its partner Corus. Corus was a major German steelcompany that was acquired by Tata Corp., and lends substantial weight to the prospects for thisstanding-seam roofing project.
  • 16. One other thing that needs to happen in order for BIPV and the underlying substrate materialssuppliers to be successful is some modification of UL1703, which currently requires retesting ofevery different-sized module, and is currently an impediment to manufacturing custom-sizedmodules for covering building facades of different sizes and shapes. E.7.3 BIPV Glass Encapsulation and Substrates Page | 12The market for glass-based BIPV substrates will grow tremendously over the next eight years, asincentives grow for green certifications, and as the standards for achieving them become moredemanding. Current encapsulation is not a challenge, with current glass and polymer solutionsbeing more than adequate to encapsulate current c-Si and a-Si BIPV glass modules.While c-Si dominates the market, thin-film silicon will experience steady growth, but CIGS, CdTeand OPV/DSC really wont hit their stride in this space until about the 2014-2015 timeframe, dueto the development costs of ultra barriers in the case of CIGS, and both absorber developmentand barrier development in the case of OPV/DSC.For the forecasts to be realized for CIGS and OPV/DSC, there is still work to be done both inprocess development and equipment development for the manufacture of high volumes of dyadicand/or ALD ultra barriers on large substrates. While the revenue for emerging advanced barriersand substrates compared to the glass substrates is not large, when one looks at the overalldemand for CIGS and OPV ultra barriers for both BIPV and non-BIPV applications, the valueproposition for the development of high volume processes for depositing these films becomesquite attractive.In addition to the encapsulation needs for CIGS, for transparent modules to flourish, CIGS backconductors will need to transition from molybdenum as the industry standard for the back contactto a transparent back conductor that will allow transparent module integration. OPV and DSC arelikely to see some action in the BIPV glass market segment, precisely because they will be first toproduce truly transparent BIPV glass.To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.netor via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.