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CIGS Photovoltaics Markets-2012

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This report is NanoMarkets’ latest report analyzing the CIGS industry and its prospects for the future. NanoMarkets has been covering the CIGS space since CIGS’ earliest days and this report should …

This report is NanoMarkets’ latest report analyzing the CIGS industry and its prospects for the future. NanoMarkets has been covering the CIGS space since CIGS’ earliest days and this report should be regarded as a major guide to the future of CIGS, compiled with an insider’s knowledge. It examines the future of this important solar panel technology from both the standpoint of the technical and the commercial. And it does so with a background in which it seems likely that many of the subsidies that have helped solar in the past will fade away and that the world economy will not return to the strong growth of the last decade for quite some time.

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  • 1. www.nanomarkets.net CIGS Photovoltaics Markets–2012 Nano-505 Published February 2012 © NanoMarkets, LCNanoMarkets, LCPO Box 3840Glen Allen, VA 23058Tel: 804-270-1718Web: www.nanomarkets.net NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 2. www.nanomarkets.netEntire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is basedon the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment.The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companiesand may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms.Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permissionof NanoMarkets, LC. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 3. www.nanomarkets.netTable of ContentsExecutive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel Makers ............................................................................ 1 Page | i E.1.1 Conventional Panel Opportunities ...............................................................................................................1 E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS .........................................................................................................................2 E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGS ...............................................................................................4 E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industry ................................. 4 E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost .................................... 6 E.4 Firms to Watch ............................................................................................................ 7 E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV ................................................................. 9Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Background to this Report .......................................................................................... 13 1.1.1 CIGS in a World of Reduced Subsidies and Economic Uncertainty ............................................................14 1.1.2 What Does Low Cost Natural Gas Mean for CIGS Markets? ......................................................................14 1.1.3 Is CIGS Ready for High-Volume Manufacturing? .......................................................................................15 1.1.4 Will Flexible CIGS Be an Advantage vs. Other PV Technologies? ...............................................................16 1.1.5 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops? ............................................................................................16 1.1.6 CIGS Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation ......................................................................................17 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................ 17 1.3 Methodology of this Report ........................................................................................ 18 1.4 Plan of this Report ...................................................................................................... 19Chapter Two: The Supply Side of CIGS PV ............................................................................. 20 2.1 Solyndra: Poor Execution or Uncompetitive Technology? ........................................... 20 2.2 What will Price Parity with Crystalline Silicon PV do to CIGS? ...................................... 22 2.3 Will CIGS be Able to Surpass CdTe in Cost/Watt? ........................................................ 22 2.4 CIGS Materials: The Indium Issue ............................................................................... 23 2.5 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost .................................. 26 2.5.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition .............................................................................................................26 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 4. www.nanomarkets.net 2.5.2 Printing: Whats the Holdup? .....................................................................................................................27 2.5.3 Electrodeposition: A Middle-of-the-Road Alternative ...............................................................................30 2.5.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is it Really an Advantage? ......................................................................................................33 2.6 Other Components of CIGS PV .................................................................................... 34 2.6.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials ................................................................................................................34 Page | ii 2.6.2 Transparent Electrode Materials ...............................................................................................................35 2.6.3 Other Electrode and Reflector Materials ...................................................................................................35 2.6.4 CIGS Special Encapsulation Needs ............................................................................................................37 2.7 The Future: New Architectures and Next Generation CIGS PV .................................... 39 2.8 Key Suppliers of Materials Unique to CIGS PV ............................................................. 40 2.8.1 Sputtering Materials ..................................................................................................................................40 2.8.2 Indium Corporation ....................................................................................................................................41 2.8.3 Umicore......................................................................................................................................................41 2.8.4 American Elements ....................................................................................................................................42 2.8.5 Nanoco .......................................................................................................................................................42 2.9 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 43Chapter Three: CIGS Market Opportunities .......................................................................... 47 3.1 How do Changes in Subsidies Change the CIGS Landscape? ......................................... 47 3.2 How Does Plentiful Natural Gas Change the CIGS Landscape? ..................................... 48 3.3 High Performance. The CIGS Advantage in PV Applications ........................................ 49 3.3.1 Conventional Module Market Opportunities ............................................................................................50 3.3.2 Rigid BIPV Market Opportunities ...............................................................................................................51 3.3.3 CIGS BIPV Semi-Transparent Glass.............................................................................................................52 3.4 Flexible CIGS: The Key to a High-Growth Market? ....................................................... 53 3.4.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities .......................................................................................................................54 3.4.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities ..................................................................................................57 3.4.3 Is Durability Still an Issue?..........................................................................................................................60 3.5 The Crowded CIGS Market and Longer-Term Trends ................................................... 61 3.5.1 Industry shakeout soon? ............................................................................................................................61 3.5.2 CIGS Prospects in China .............................................................................................................................64 3.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 64 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 5. www.nanomarkets.netChapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for CIGS PV and Its Materials ......................................... 69 4.1 Forecasting Methodology ........................................................................................... 69 4.1.1 Data Sources ..............................................................................................................................................69 4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports .................................................................................................................70 4.1.3 Scope of Forecast .......................................................................................................................................70 Page | iii 4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios .................................................................................................................................71 4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type ......................................................................... 71 4.2.1 Conventional Panels...................................................................................................................................72 4.2.2 BIPV ............................................................................................................................................................73 4.2.3 Other Products ...........................................................................................................................................76 4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology .................................................... 78 4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing ...........................................................................................78 4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method .......................................................................................................79 4.4 Summary of Forecasts ................................................................................................ 80 Abbreviations and Acronyms Used In this Report ............................................................. 84 About the Author ............................................................................................................. 85 List of ExhibitsExhibit E-1: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions) ..............................................................................................10Exhibit 2-1: Printed CIGS Firms ....................................................................................................................................28Exhibit 2-2: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms ....................................................................................................................32Exhibit 3-1: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011 ...................................................................................................................62Exhibit 3-2: CIGS PV Manufacturers by Geography: 2011 vs. 2009 .............................................................................63Exhibit 4-1: Conventional CIGS PV Panels ($ Millions) .................................................................................................72Exhibit 4-2: CIGS BIPV Products by BIPV Type ($ Millions) ..........................................................................................75Exhibit 4-3: Forecasts of CIGS "Other" Products .........................................................................................................77Exhibit 4-4: CIGS PV Revenues by Type of Manufacturing ($ Millions) .......................................................................79Exhibit 4-5: CIGS PV Revenues by CIGS Deposition Process ($ Millions) .....................................................................80Exhibit 4-6: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions) ..............................................................................................81 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 6. www.nanomarkets.netExecutive SummaryCopper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) is the TFPV technology with the highest reportedefficiency and an ideal candidate for light-weight, high performance PV applications, but it hasbeen the “breakthrough PV film of the future” for a number of years due to difficulties moving Page | 1from the lab to the manufacturing line. Finally, it looks like CIGS is ready to move into high-volume manufacturing, especially rigid modules and BIPV applications.  The announcement in January 2012 by enXco of the world’s largest CIGS-based solar farm (150 MW) using modules from Solar Frontier demonstrates that CIGS really is ready for “prime time” as a high-volume PV technology.  Methods to deposit films on rigid and flexible modules by evaporation and electrodeposition are reaching production maturity, while ink based systems still need to be proven in high volume.This report covers the current state of the art and growth forecasts for rigid modules, BIPVapplications and flexible modules for mobile charging applications.E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel MakersThe CIGS module market is divided into three major areas: rigid modules for ground based androof based applications, where it competes against c-Si modules and CdTe modules; rigid BIPVmodules, where it competes against c-Si, CdTe and a-Si, and flexible BIPV modules where itcompetes against a-Si; and semi-transparent glass applications, where it competes mostlyagainst c-Si. Each of these areas presents opportunities for CIGS. In NanoMarkets’ opinion,there will be growth in all areas, with rigid modules seeing the highest volumes, and especiallyrobust growth observed in the BIPV sector. E.1.1 Conventional Panel OpportunitiesThe conventional panel market is the CIGS market that has been most affected by externalfactors over the past 12-24 months. The major change in the PV landscape in this time periodhas been the drastic drop in the price of crystalline silicon PV modules. In early 2011, thetypical price of c-Si modules was $3.25/watt, by June 2011 it was $2.30/watt and by the end ofJuly it was just $1.50/watt. Most now predict the price will fall to below $1/watt by some timein mid-2012, with a floor of around $0.80/watt by 2014. This scenario is a far cry from theconventional wisdom for crystalline silicon PV prices, which generally predicted a floor near$1/watt to be achieved in the 2014-2015 timeframe. An oversupply of polysilicon andexpanded capacity in China were the cause of the price fall. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 7. www.nanomarkets.netMost business models for CIGS did not anticipate how rapidly c-Si prices would drop, and howquickly rigid PV modules would transition to a truly commodity product. Their models ingeneral worried more about CdTe and its low cost per watt. To be successful, CIGS companiesmust adjust their business plans to comprehend this new landscape, particularly in the case ofrigid panel makers, who compete directly with c-Si and CdTe rigid modules. Page | 2  If CIGS can’t beat c-Si on price, the efficiency isn’t quite as good as c-Si and the module weight is not a concern, then most buyers will go with tried and true c-Si modules.  It will be necessary for CIGS to both continue to improve efficiency and get to a lower cost per watt price than c-Si to be successful.  When competing with CdTe in rigid module applications, however, CIGS can lag slightly on price due to CIGS’ higher efficiency.In the long term, as CIGS modules with an efficiency nearing the best-in-class champion cellsmove to production, production volumes move to large scale, and manufacturing efficienciessuch as thinner absorber layers and aggressive recycling of absorber materials become standardpractices, CIGS costs should drop below that of flat-panel crystalline silicon; but this scenariomay not happen in the near term.The other change over the past two-three years has been the dramatic drop in the price ofnatural gas for base load generating capacity. While models in the 2008 time frame containedpredictions of runaway prices for fossil fuels in which PV could make money at relatively highmodule cost, the high-cost fossil fuel scenario did not come to pass (at least for natural gas,which is selling at 10 year lows).The cost structure for CIGS, however, is such that significant growth potential is there in spite oflow natural gas prices. Natural gas will provide low cost base-load capacity with half the carbonfootprint of coal, while CIGS can provide significant daytime capacity if it can stay under thecost of the competing technologies and ramp to multi GW production volumes to providemodules in sufficient quantity to meet demand. E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGSWhile rigid modules will likely drive the most volume for CIGS in the near future, the highestgrowth and highest profit margins will be in the BIPV area. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 8. www.nanomarkets.net  The BIPV area is one where CIGS is well-suited because of its low module weight, high efficiency and capability to be made into flexible modules of almost any shape, all of which provide a significant advantage vs. competing options.  BIPV is also less likely to undergo the rapid commoditization that has happened in the Page | 3 rigid module area.BIPV modules come in both rigid and flexible types. The key advantages for CIGS in the rigidmodule area versus c-Si are ascetics and superior generating capacity in indirect light.  CIGS modules can be made monolithic and quite attractive for building applications compared to the familiar c-Si modules with their individual cells and tabbing.  CIGS by its nature has better generating characteristics in indirect light, which is more of a factor for BIPV applicationsFlexible BIPV CIGS modules are poised for significant growth over the next few years.  The weight difference and flexible nature significantly reduce balance of system (BOS) and installation costs in flat roof applications.  Unlike c-Si and available CdTe modules, flexible CIGS modules can cover any shaped building surface.Currently, the challenge for flexible modules is reducing the cost of the complex dyadic filmencapsulation systems that are currently used to provide a long-term hermetic seal for themoisture-sensitive CIGS absorber material. The cost of the encapsulation solution is the gate togrowth for flexible BIPV CIGS. The more aggressively this situation can be addressed, the higherthe potential growth of BIPV CIGS modules.The final area where BIPV shows potential is for semi-transparent window applications.Currently, there are a-Si solutions, but these systems are at much lower efficiency (5-9 percent)than the CIGS modules coming on the market (11-13 percent). While the semi-transparentglass CIGS market is in its infancy, it is one that bears watching. Low efficiency a-Si moduleshave had some success in this market, so CIGS modules at double the efficiency should be veryattractive in such applications. CdTe currently does not have a transparent module on themarket. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 9. www.nanomarkets.net E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGSNot all flexible PV products are BIPV products, and NanoMarkets believes that there are alsonew opportunities for flexible CIGS PV manufacturers to produce flexible devices for othermarkets. These other flexible devices are generally for the off-grid market (military in the nearterm, civilian later on) and consumer products such as portable chargers and PV-active Page | 4clothing/bags for charging portable electronics.Military applications will be one of the first exploited in this area.  Batteries (both weight and lifetimes) limit operational readiness.  Portable chargers can significantly reduce the battery requirements for soldiers in the field.  Portable charges can also replace some generating capacity in forward operational areas.This capability is significant, as the cost of diesel delivered to forward operating bases inAfghanistan is estimated to be about $300-$400/gallon. Current flexible PV solutions for themilitary have generally been a-Si based. CIGS would represent a significant improvement inefficiency for mobile military applications.Another emerging market that will start to show significant growth is flexible chargers inemerging regions. Of the 4.6 billion cell phones in the world, 2.6 billion are in regions withunstable electrical grids by Western standards, and 100 million of them are off-grid all together.Flexible modules will also have increased penetration for charging mobile applications and off-grid use for recreational purposes as prices for such modules continue to drop.In terms of volumes as measured by square footage, the portable electronics market is boundto be much smaller than the BIPV or conventional solar panel market, but especially for militaryapplications and off-grid applications where the electrical grid reliability is spotty ornonexistent, margins should be high.Meeting an aggressive cost curve on portable flexible modules should be more achievable thanthe BIPV area, as the lifetime expectations are less. A BIPV shingle has a lifetime expectancy of20-30 years, while a cell-phone battery charger has a lifetime expectation equal to the phone.E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industryElectrodes: Suppliers of materials to the CIGS industry have several opportunities. The keyopportunity for suppliers of electrode materials for CIGS manufacturers lies mostly in the area NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 10. www.nanomarkets.netof cost reduction. Convenient recycling of electrode materials, targets and the like are an areawhere suppliers can help module manufacturers while enhancing their margins.The transition from ITO to AZO seems well defined for the front conducting electrode material,but the back conductor roadmap is one where materials providers can work with module Page | 5manufacturers on the development of lower-cost metal foils for the flexible cells andtransparent back electrodes necessary for semi-transparent glass applications. Longer-termoptions are TCOs based on sulfides or selenides, which can serve both as the junction layer andthe electrode. Metal doped zinc sulfide is one candidate that is being investigated.Encapsulation: Advanced plastics for both substrates and encapsulation are key areas formaterials suppliers to focus on. Polyimides are currently the solution of choice for thesubstrate if a metal foil is not used. While less expensive than stainless steel, polyimide is oneof the more expensive polymeric materials. Any solution that has the high temperaturetolerance and encapsulation qualities of polyimide at a lower cost point will be embraced bythe CIGS community as a new substrate material.Encapsulation materials are another area where more advanced polymer solutions are needed.Currently, encapsulation of flexible CIGS modules is accomplished with dyadic systems thatconsist of multiple layers of polymer and thin ceramics and provide a hermetic seal for themodules. While this approach may be viable today for BIPV applications where overall cost andmargins are higher, it will have to be replaced with lower cost solutions as competing productscome down in price.Indium: Finally, because of the significant MW volumes forecasted for CIGS in addition to theneeds of other industries, stable new sources of indium will be needed to provide pricestability. Unlike the rare earths, of which over 90 percent are sourced from China, indiumresources are more evenly distributed around the world (although around 50 percent issourced from China). Significant increases in production in both Canada and South Americathat will be coming on line over the next few years, along with additional indium recovery frommine tailings that are currently not exploited, will do much to calm indium price instability.Recycling also is a piece of the puzzle. Currently, two-thirds of indium comes from recycledsources. New recycling techniques coming on line will further increase this amount.The unknown about the indium market is whether or not China will aggressively use its indiuminternally to develop a CIGS market or flat-panel display market to prop up the price of indiumon the open market. While it looked like this was the case twelve months ago, it is much less NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 11. www.nanomarkets.netclear today in the face of falling PV prices in general and the fate of several Chinese CIGScompanies that have recently left the CIGS module field.E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and CostEvaporation and sputtering: The deposition of the absorber layer for CIGS PV is currently Page | 6dominated by vacuum deposition techniques. Vacuum methods are well understood and resultin quality films, but aggressive recycling will need to be put into place for long-term costcontrol, as by its nature evaporation and sputtering have relatively low deposition efficiencies(30 to 70 percent). Over 90 percent of todays commercial production of CIGS PV uses vacuummethods to deposit the absorber layer.Companies that choose vacuum deposition will also need to investigate methods to increasethroughput vs. the competing deposition methods. By its nature, vacuum deposition is slowerthan either electrodeposition or printing. The most likely route for increasing throughput is toincrease deposition rates without sacrificing film quality or deposition efficiency.For sputtered films, unless a soda lime glass substrate is used (providing trace amounts ofsodium), sodium or another alkali metal must be added as a dopant. A sulfur- or selenium-containing gas is also required for sputtered films. Typically, these materials are hydrogenselenide gas, hydrogen sulfide gas, or elemental sulfur or selenium (which are easily evaporatedto form elemental vapors due to their high volatility).Electrochemical deposition: Electrodeposition is another option for non-vacuum deposition ofCIGS materials. Electrodeposition has the potential to be a lower cost method for absorberdeposition because it puts the materials only on the substrate (more efficient materialutilization), uses a less expensive equipment set than physical vapor deposition (PVD) methods,and is a well known technique to deposit thin films. While electroplating is well known, themulti component nature of CIGS makes the deposition more difficult than plating singleelements.Even though modules made by electrodeposition of CIGS have been commercially available fortwo years, it has not been met with the same level of enthusiasm in the venture capital marketsas printing. Our opinion, however, is that the lowest cost solution that requires the least newmaterials development will in the long run be most successful, so well-known electrodepositionmay compete very well in the long-term with processes that require the development ofnanoparticle-based metallic inks. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 12. www.nanomarkets.netPrinting and Inks: Printing was once supposed to be the deposition method that woulddominate the world of high-volume low cost CIGS cells. It was supposed to eliminate all of thecost, throughput and energy intensity issues associated with classical evaporation andsputtering technologies. Page | 7  Unfortunately, the story of printed CIGS has been one of constant over-commitment and under-performance.  The nature of engineering nanoparticles of metal into affordable inks with manufacturable deposition and final film quality characteristics was much more difficult than initially anticipated. There were two projects announced in 2011: a 6 MW engagement with EDF Energies and a 500-kW facility at Camp Perry, Ohio. Additionally, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) confirmed that its printed technology is capable of 17 percent efficiency. However, because of the history of over commitment and underperformance, NanoMarkets urges caution in this space until high volume deliveries are demonstrated.E.4 Firms to WatchAs CIGS is a less mature technology than CdTe or c-Si, its supply chain is less developed and thefuture is harder to gauge. NanoMarkets believes that as the CIGS market begins to take off,there will be several areas where there will be opportunities for new entrants to compete asdemand for materials quickly expands. Because CIGS is a complicated material and CIGS PVseems to have a lot of potential, the entry of new materials suppliers seems highly likely in thisspace. Below is a summary of some of the current leaders supplying to the CIGS moduleindustry, as well as several leading module manufacturers to watch:American Elements: American Elements Inc. (AE) is a U.S.-based company that manufactures awide variety of high purity metals and metal compounds. Several of its offerings are specific tothin-film photovoltaic technologies including CIGS. Materials for CIGS PV cells are sold throughAE Solar Energy Group in the form of CIS/CIGS single crystals, powders, and nanoparticles. AEmanufactures high volume, high purity sputtering targets for each of these layers. It also offersdevelopment services for specific customer needs. In September 2011, AE reiterated earlierassurances that it has stable supplies of all rare earth metals and indium, but that prices forrare earths will be volatile for the foreseeable future.Umicore: Umicore S.A. of Belgium is a diverse materials technology company. For CIGS PV,Umicore offers high-performance sputtering targets for the CIGS absorber layer and AZO NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 13. www.nanomarkets.netsputtering targets for the top electrode. In September 2010, it announced a capital expenditureplan of over €30 million to be invested over the next three years in boosting production ofrotary sputtering targets for large area thin-film PV depositions to meet increased demand.Umicore‘s indium capacity is 50 tonnes/year, and its recycling capacity for CIGS waste is also 50tonnes/year. Page | 8Indium Corporation: Indium Corporation has been in the indium business for 75 years and isinvolved in all applications for indium, including CIGS PV, ITO for PV, displays, and solders.Since the advent of CIGS PV technology, photovoltaic solutions have become more important tothe company, with gallium also being a strategic part of Indium Corporations business fordecades. It provides single-element and CIG sputtering targets and for electrodeposition,promotes its indium sulfamate plating bath, which it claims allows control of grain sizes. Thecompanys core competency lies in the sourcing of indium, which it has been doing throughoutits existence.Sputtering Materials: Sputtering Materials Inc. (SMI) of Reno, Nevada offers high-density (>99percent) CIGS rotatable and planar targets up to 50 inches in length for thin-film CIGS PVmanufacturers. The high density—obtained by casting instead of pressing its targets— isgenerally known to reduce the propensity for arcing and contamination that are common inlower-density materials. It also provides target development services.Nanoco: Nanoco Technologies of the U.K. is a small nanomaterials company that manufacturessemiconductor nanoparticles for CIGS PV cells and went public in 2009. Nanocos "CIS" andCIGS nanoparticles are used in inks for the printing of CIGS absorber layers without the use ofcostly vacuum techniques. In April 2011, the company announced production of low kilogramquantities of its quantum dot materials. While the firm is still a long way from productionvolumes, it does show that such advanced materials are making their way from the lab and areon the way to becoming viable in CIGS manufacturing.Solar Frontier: As the largest CIGS manufacturing company in the world, Solar Frontier will bethe bellwether of CIG’s penetration in the rigid module markets. The announcement in January2012 by enXco of the world’s largest CIGS-based solar farm (150 MW, mentioned above) usingmodules from Solar Frontier demonstrates that CIGS can compete in high volume with c-Si andCdTe. In 2011 in Miyazaki, Japan Solar Frontier opened the largest CIS production facility in theworld, with a reported capacity of 900 MW/year. Its modules are warranted for 25 years, andthe company received ISO 9001 certification in 2011. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 14. www.nanomarkets.netDow: Dow’s Powerhouse CIGS-based solar shingle is a product to be watched as it will be avery visible indicator of the acceptance of BIPV in residential applications. Production volumesare small at this point, but they are now commercially available in Colorado. Dow plans to have220 MW/year of capacity in place by 2015. The absorber layer was initially provided solely byGlobal Solar, but in January 2012, NuvoSun was announced as a second source. Page | 9TSMC: Another indication that CIGS is ready for high-volume manufacturing is the entry ofestablished high-volume technical manufacturing companies such as TSMC into the field. Theentry of TSMC, with its established record of efficient and cost-effective high volumemanufacturing, bodes well for CIGS PV technology. Semiconductor companies are especiallywell-suited to thin-film solar, as they are very experienced in developing complex thin-filmdepositions.Companies such as TSMC also have established relationships with the equipment suppliers,which also gives such firms and advantage over start ups. TSMC plans to have 1 GW of capacityfor CIGS available in three-five years. The company has committed $258 million on a facility inTaichung that will provide 100 MW of capacity by the end of 2012 and another 100 MW in2013, with an additional 700 MW coming on line in the next three-five years.E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PVExhibit E-1 summarizes NanoMarkets forecasts for CIGS PV in both volume and revenue terms.It also shows the breakout between the major product types—conventional panels, BIPV, andother products—and between major manufacturing methods, roll-to-roll and batch processingon rigid glass substrates.What our numbers suggest is that, by the end of the forecast period discussed in this report,the CIGS industry will be quite substantial in terms of revenues, even though there are stillsome important manufacturing barriers to overcome. As we show in Chapter Four of thisreport, we can reach quite high revenues for CIGS in 2019 by just assuming that currentlyplanned capacity is built, even if that capacity is used only modestly. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 15. www.nanomarkets.netExhibit E-1 Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019CIGS Volume (MW)CIGS Revenues ($ Millions) Page | 10By Product Type (Percent MW):Percent Conventional PanelsPercent BIPVPercent Other ProductsBy Manufacturing Process (PercentMW):Percent Rigid ManufacturingPercent Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing© NanoMarkets 2012 Total CIGS Volume (MW) 12,000 10,000 8,000 MWs 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © NanoMarkets, LC NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 16. www.nanomarkets.net Total CIGS Revenues 7,000 6,000 Page | 11 5,000 $ Millions 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 © NanoMarkets, LCThis optimism should also be viewed in the context of what is happening in the PV industry as awhole. After the end of the silicon shortage, c-Si PV is on a roll again even though margins arebecoming much thinner. In the light of this development, TFPV as a whole will have a hardertime competing, especially a-Si with its low efficiency. CdTe will also be affected, although theaggressive cost work done by First Solar limits worries about efficiency in rigid moduleapplications. The high efficiency of CIGS will let it circumvent the efficiency issue, if it canmaintain an aggressive cost curve.In our forecasts, NanoMarkets is doing its best not to be too optimistic about the prospects.After all, this technology has all but drowned in optimism before, and that history should be awarning sign. As a result, we have shown fairly modest evolution towards new goals for CIGS.Although we strongly believe that the rise of BIPV is a key driver and its growth will be robust,we do not see it being more than 50 percent of the CIGS market. Similarly, while we areprojecting that roll-to-roll manufacturing will (at last) play a role in CIGS manufacturing, themajority of the large volumes based on this process technology will come later in the reportingperiod, and will not be beyond 50 percent.To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net orvia telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259

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