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CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT OF SALMONIN EUROPE(CASE: FRANCE, SPAIN, UK AND GERMANY)Amund Bråthen,Norwegian Seafood CouncilOslo...
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON• The numbers are representative what the households are buying for their home consump...
«EUROPEAN» INDEX BASED UPON VALUE ANDVOLUME IN FRANCE, SPAIN AND UK
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SALES (VOLUME) OF              FRESH, FROZEN SALMON PRODUCTS.                               Indexe...
STRONG VALUE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH    SALMON – WEAKER FOR FROZEN AND SMOKED                   Indexed value for France, Sp...
PRICE DECREASE FOR FROZEN AND FRESH    SALMON IN THE THREE COUNTRIES                  Indexed price for France, Spain and ...
MARKET FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF    SALMON – P01-P05YtD P05/April                   Fresh                        Frozen ...
SALMON INCREASES MARKET SHARES IN                           SPAIN AND UK.                           STABLE IN FRANCEJohan ...
FRANCE
YTD P05 AVERAGE FRESH FISH PRICES IN    FRANCE                    YtD P05 2011                                            ...
PRICE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH     FISH IN FRANCE (P01-P05)                                                       ...
LESS IS SOLD UNDER 10 EURO IN Q112 THAN IN .  Q411             Volume sold of fresh salmon in different average price leve...
FRESH SALMON IS BACK ON PROMOTION.Photo: Carrefour
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
SOME DEFINITIONS                                      Volume = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)* Average kilo pu...
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON IN FRANCE       FROM 2011 TO 2012 – ALSO HIGHER THAN 2010                   2010    ...
STRONG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ALL AREAS     FOR FRESH SALMON IN SPAIN.                  2010              2011           ...
Penetration %        AW Expenditure        AW Purchase                                                                    ...
TOTAL SEAFOOD IN SPAIN                   2010              2011            2012                   95,8              96,6  ...
FRESH FISH IN FRANCE HAS A POSITVE     DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS THAN FOR SALMON.                   2010              2011     ...
SUMMARY1.   Strong positive development for fresh salmon. Volume is up and prices are     down.2.   Positive tendences for...
Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
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Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen

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Konsumentanalytiker i Norges sjømatråd Amund Bråthens presentasjon på Miniseminar Laks i Oslo 21. juni 2012. Om konsumentutvikling av laks i Europa.

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Transcript of "Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen"

  1. 1. CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT OF SALMONIN EUROPE(CASE: FRANCE, SPAIN, UK AND GERMANY)Amund Bråthen,Norwegian Seafood CouncilOslo, June 2012ab@seafood.no
  2. 2. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON• The numbers are representative what the households are buying for their home consumption.• The numbers does not include HoReCa.• The data is panel data collected through Europanel.• Volume is presented as product weight.
  3. 3. «EUROPEAN» INDEX BASED UPON VALUE ANDVOLUME IN FRANCE, SPAIN AND UK
  4. 4. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SALES (VOLUME) OF FRESH, FROZEN SALMON PRODUCTS. Indexed MAT volume for France, Spain and UK (all products) 135,00 130,00 125,00 Index 2006=100 120,00 115,00 Total fresh Total frozen 110,00 Total smoked 105,00 100,00 95,00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Indexed MAT volume of bought salmonPeriod: 2006 – P05 2012Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmonSource: Europanel/NSC
  5. 5. STRONG VALUE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON – WEAKER FOR FROZEN AND SMOKED Indexed value for France, Spain and UK (all products) 160,00 150,00 140,00 130,00 Total fresh 120,00 Total frozen Total smoked 110,00 100,00 90,00 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Indexed MAT value of bought salmonPeriod: 2006 – P05 2012Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmonSource: Europanel/NSC
  6. 6. PRICE DECREASE FOR FROZEN AND FRESH SALMON IN THE THREE COUNTRIES Indexed price for France, Spain and UK (all products)135,0130,0125,0120,0115,0 Total fresh110,0 Total frozen Total smoked105,0100,0 95,0 90,0 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Indexed MAT Price of bought salmonPeriod: 2006 – P05 2012Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmonSource: Europanel/NSC
  7. 7. MARKET FOCUS
  8. 8. DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF SALMON – P01-P05YtD P05/April Fresh Frozen Smoked Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price France 53,9 % -17,3% 0,1% 5,3% -1,5% 4,0% Germany 24,3% -8,2% -12,3% 9,2% 6,5% -6,7% UK 11,6% 2,9% -1,4% 1,1% 34,3% -10,2% Spain 29,7% -14,7% 1,3% 6,7% 0,7% 0,1%Volume and price developmentPeriod: P01-P05 2011 and 2012Product: Fresh, Frozen and Smoked salmonSource: Europanel/NSC
  9. 9. SALMON INCREASES MARKET SHARES IN SPAIN AND UK. STABLE IN FRANCEJohan har du et bilde aven fiskedisk med laks… Salmons market share of seafood sold for home consumption (value based MAT) 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% France Spain 14% UK 12% 10% 8% 13 2 4 6 8 1012 1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4 2010 2011 2012
  10. 10. FRANCE
  11. 11. YTD P05 AVERAGE FRESH FISH PRICES IN FRANCE YtD P05 2011 YtD P05 2012 TUNA 19,34 SOLE 18,76 SCORPI… 21,45 RED MULLET 17,83 TUNA 19,52 ANGLER 17,65 RED… 18,56SCORPION FISH 17,55 SOLE 18,01 SALMON 14,63 ANGLER 17,60 COD 14,38 SEA BASS 14,88 HADDOCK 14,33 COD 14,40 SEA BASS 13,44 HADDOCK 13,38 RAY 13,28 OTHER… 13,01 Grand Total 12,50 RAY 12,92 POLLACK 12,18 DAB 12,91 DAB 12,15 Grand Total 12,44 OTHER FISH 11,95 WHITING 12,16 SAUMONETTE 11,94 SALMON 12,00 WHITING 11,67 PERCH 11,83 PERCH 11,44 MORUE 11,52 SAUMON… 11,13 MORUE 11,08 LING 10,79 POLLACK 11,04 SEABREAM 10,43 SEABREAM 11,01 COALFISH 10,05 LING 10,91 TROUT 9,94 PLAICE 10,20 PLAICE 9,59 KIPPER 10,05 KIPPER 8,99 COALFISH 9,96 HAKE 8,70 HAKE 9,52 PANGAS 7,50 TROUT 9,48 SARDINES 5,57 PANGAS 7,65 MACKEREL 5,43 MACKEREL 5,92 SARDINES 5,85Price for fresh fishPeriod: P01-P05 2011 and 2012Product: Fresh fishCountry: FranceSource: Europanel/NSC
  12. 12. PRICE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH FISH IN FRANCE (P01-P05) Volume development 65,0 55,0 Salmon 45,0 35,0 Haddock 25,0 Angler Ray15,0 Plaice 5,0 Cod Price development Red Mullet Kipper Tuna Coalfish Morue -25,00 -20,00 -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 Mackerel -5,00,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 Sole Whiting -15,0 Seabream Hake Ling Pangas Pollack -25,0 Perch -35,0 SardinesPrice for fresh fish -45,0Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012Product: Fresh fishCountry: FranceSource: Europanel/NSC
  13. 13. LESS IS SOLD UNDER 10 EURO IN Q112 THAN IN . Q411 Volume sold of fresh salmon in different average price levels.100 %90 %80 %70 %60 % 16+50 % 14-15,99 12-13,9940 % 10-11,99 7-9,9930 %20 %10 % 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009 2010 2011 2012
  14. 14. FRESH SALMON IS BACK ON PROMOTION.Photo: Carrefour
  15. 15. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
  16. 16. SOME DEFINITIONS Volume = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)* Average kilo purchased in the period (AWP) Value (alternative 1) = Volume * Price Value (alternative 2) = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)*(Average expenditure of the purchase (AWE (AWP*Price))
  17. 17. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON IN FRANCE FROM 2011 TO 2012 – ALSO HIGHER THAN 2010 2010 2011 2012 26,6 22,5 27,2 Penetration % -15,3% +20,7% 1,38 1,13 1,44 AW Purchase -18,1% +27,4% € AW Price / Kg 11,8 17,8% 13,9 -17,2% 11,5 16,3 15,7 16,5AW Expenditure -3,6% 5,1% Period: P01-P05
  18. 18. STRONG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ALL AREAS FOR FRESH SALMON IN SPAIN. 2010 2011 2012 27,2 28,8 31,4 Penetration % 5,9% 9,0% 2,66 2,49 2,96 AW Purchase -6,4% +18,9% € AW Price / Kg 8,4 13,1% 9,5 -14,7% 8,1 22,4 23,6 23,9AW Expenditure 5,4% 1,3% Period: P01-P05
  19. 19. Penetration % AW Expenditure AW Purchase € AW Price / Kg France – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012Fresh salmon +21% +5% +28% -17%Frozen salmon +4% +2% -3% +5%Smoked salmon 0% +2% -2% +4% Spain – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012Fresh salmon +9% +1% +19% -15%Frozen salmon -4% +12% +5% +7%Smoked salmon -5% +5% +5% +0% Period: P01-P05
  20. 20. TOTAL SEAFOOD IN SPAIN 2010 2011 2012 95,8 96,6 96,9 Penetration % 0,8% 0,3% 188,8 187,8 182,5AW Expenditure -0,5% -2,8% 28,0 26,7 26,1 AW Purchase -4,6% -2,2% € AW Price / Kg 6,80 3,5% Period: P01-P05 7,04 -0,6% 7,00
  21. 21. FRESH FISH IN FRANCE HAS A POSITVE DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS THAN FOR SALMON. 2010 2011 2012 58,0 55,9 56,2 Penetration % -3,6% 0,5% 40,2 40,1 40,9AW Expenditure -0,2% +2,0% 3,47 3,23 3,33 AW Purchase -6,9% 3,1% € AW Price / Kg 11,6 6,9% Period: P01-P05 12,4 -0,8% 12,3
  22. 22. SUMMARY1. Strong positive development for fresh salmon. Volume is up and prices are down.2. Positive tendences for smoked salmon, more variation for frozen salmon.3. Penetration and expenditure are increasing for fresh salmon in France and Spain.
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