Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Erik Bruce, matfestivalen 2012

241

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
241
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Sterkere USDErik BruceAugust 2012
  • 2. Renter fortsatt viktig for valutaen2.4 USD 2 å swap EUR 2 å swap 2 år rentedif EURUSD 1.52 (venstre akse) (venstre akse) (venstre akse) (høyre akse) 1.6 1.482.1 1.3 1.441.8 1 1.41.5 1.36 0.7 1.321.2 0.4 1.280.9 0.1 1.24 -0.2 1.20.6 -0.5 1.160.3 2Jun10 2Jun11 2Jun12 2Jun10 2Dec10 2Jun11 2Dec11 2Jun12 2•
  • 3. Global svakhet 3•
  • 4. Men det er i ferd med å snu i USA 4
  • 5. Banksystemet fungerer Bankene er mye bedre stilt i dag. Og nå får også småbedriftene låne
  • 6. Balanse tilpasningen tatt Nivå på sparing ikke gjeld som teller for vekst.
  • 7. Oppsamlet behov for nyinvesteringer Politisk risk må fjernes- potensiell enorm instrammning
  • 8. Ikke behov for QE 3- Fed sier de vil holde renten lav lenge 8• Johnny Bo Jakobsen • 14/08/2012
  • 9. Fed underestimerer inflasjonsfaren Tegn til lønns og prispress kommer før – renteøkningen kommer før 9• Johnny Bo Jakobsen • 14/08/2012
  • 10. Pengene har strømmet fra Nord til Sør Lenge finansiert av privat sektor i Nord 10 •
  • 11. Nye krisetiltak - krisen avverget forhåpentligvis10 år statsobligasjon – spread til Tyskland
  • 12. Men veksten blir svak – fortsatt fall i sør 12
  • 13. Men ikke allt er svakt En ytterligere svekkelse av euroen vil hjelpe euroomådet
  • 14. NOK har styrket seg mot EUR 8.40 8.20 8.00 7.80 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 23Aug10 29Mar11 02Nov11 07Jun12 11Jan13 17Aug13 EURNOK Forw ard Nordea Consensus 14 •
  • 15. Mind the gap!Budsjettunderskudd (% av BNP) 15 14 13 Irland 12 11 10 9 Spania Hellas 8 USA UK 7 Slovakia Kypros 6 Frankrike Slovenia 5 Portugal Nederland Euro snitt 4 Italia 3 Malta Østerrike Belgia 2 Luxembourg Finland 1 Tyskland 0 -175 -150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 -1 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 Norge -11 -12 Statsgjeld (% av BNP)
  • 16. Ikke tegn til høyere inflasjon 16 •
  • 17. Industrien gjør det bra 17 •
  • 18. Men det er forbrukern som er drivkraften 18 •
  • 19. Norgrs Bank vil gå forsiktig fram og argumentene for kronekjøpsvekkes 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 23Aug10 29Mar11 02Nov11 07Jun12 11Jan13 17Aug13 USDNOK Forw ard Nordea Consensus 19 • Johnny Bo Jakobsen • 22/02/2012
  • 20. Takk for oppmerksomhetenLes mer i vår rapport Økonomisk Oversikt 2/12 på www.nordea.comsom kommer 4 septemberErik BruceSjefsanalytikerTlf. 22484449 Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S.The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and otherinformation provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as anoffer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. 20

×