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Immigration to the U.S.: Myths, Trends, Turning Points and the New Reality

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UTSA College of Public Policy Dean's Distinguished Lecture Series presents "Immigration to the U.S.: Myths, Trends, Turning Points and the New Reality" by Dr. Jeffrey Passel, Senior Demographer, Pew …

UTSA College of Public Policy Dean's Distinguished Lecture Series presents "Immigration to the U.S.: Myths, Trends, Turning Points and the New Reality" by Dr. Jeffrey Passel, Senior Demographer, Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project.

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  • 1. Immigration to the U.S.: Myths, Trends, Turning Points & the New Reality Jeffrey S. Passel Senior Demographer Hispanic Trends Project Dean’s Distinguished Lecture Series University of Texas at San Antonio, College of Public Policy San Antonio, TX—14 November 2013
  • 2. Myth and Reality • Immigration is an All-Time High – Yes & No – Depends on Measure • US has NOT Been Welcoming – ―Rose-Colored‖ View of the Past • Today is NOT that Different – Has Taken Generations for Full Acceptance • Changes have been Rapid – Very Different from US in 1950, 1970 or even 1990 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 3. Immigration Today • Demographic Background – How many? What kind? Trends – From where? To where? • What Are Our Policies? – Admission & Exclusion – Integration & Impact Mitigation • What Are the Immigrants Like? – Education & Income – Families & Children – Factors Behind Migration Hispanic Trends Project
  • 4. BIG Changes Recently • Unauthorized Immigration has Stopped – Unauthorized Population Growth Reversed in ‘07 – Mexican Flows have REVERSED (new) – Lull or Fundamental Change?? • Total Immigrant Population Growth – Overall Growth Basically Stopped ‗07 to mid-‘10 – Legal Immigration Levels Still High – Huge Drop in New Unauthorized – New Asian Arrivals exceed Latinos • Unauthorized Population = Families w/ Kids – Almost Half of Adults are Parents • Geographic Dispersal Stopped in ‘07 – Numbers Constant in ―New Destinations‖ through ‗11 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 5. Context & History Hispanic Trends Project
  • 6. Migration Flows to U.S. • Large Total Increases, Now Stable – Shift to Latin America & Asia by ‗70s • New Flows are Unauthorized (by ‗80s) – Much More Heavily Latin American – In-Flow Now Way, Way Down • Responsive to Origin & Destination – Job Availability in U.S. – Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere • New Destinations Emerged – Driven by Unauthorized (Mexican) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 7. 19th Century: Increases and Fluctuations Millions of Immigrants Arriving Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 8.8 5.2 3.7 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.8 0.1 0.6 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 8. 1910s & 1920s: War plus Restrictions  Declines Millions of Immigrants Arriving Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 8.8 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.8 0.1 0.6 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 9. 1930s & 1940s: Depression & WarNo One Comes Millions of Immigrants Arriving Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 8.8 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.8 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 10. 1950s & 1960s: Post-WarImmigration Starts Again Millions of Immigrants Arriving Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 8.8 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 11. 1970s to 1990s: Increased Numbers & New Origins Millions of Immigrants Arriving Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 8.8 8.0 4.5 4.1 3.7 1.7 6.0 5.8 5.2 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 12. Late 20th Century: Unauthorized Immigration BOOMS Millions of Immigrants Arriving 14-16+ (est.) Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* 10 * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 9.0 7 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 13. 21st Century: Current Legal Flows Still High Millions of Immigrants Arriving 14-16+ (est.) Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* 10 * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 10.5 9.0 7 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 14. 21st Century: Current Total Flows Still High Millions of Immigrants Arriving 14-16+ 14+? (est.) Europe/Canada (Legal) All Other (Legal) Additional* 10 * Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens 9.0 7 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 15. 21st Century: Immigration RATES Below Highs Immigrants during Decade per 1,000 Population at Beginning of Decade 12.1 11.1 10.5 Legal Immigrants per 1,000 population Undocumented per 1,000 population 8.4 6.6 7.2 7.1 6.4 5.9 4.8 4.2 4.0 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 s 00 20 s 80 19 s 60 19 s 40 19 s 20 19 s 00 19 s 80 18 s 60 18 s 40 18 s 20 18 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 16. Multiple Goals of Immigration Policy • Economic—Competitiveness, (14%)* Jobs Social—Family Unification Moral—Human Rights Cultural—Pluralism Legal—Sovereignty, Security, & Rule of Law (66%) (14%) (5%) (<1%) • • • • * Share of 2010 Admissions Hispanic Trends Project
  • 17. Selected Immigration Laws • Exclusions – 1885 -- Chinese – 1907 -- Japanese – 1917 -- Asians & ―Illiterates‖ • S. & E. Europe Quotas & Limits – 1921, 1924, 1952 • Repeal of Discriminatory Quotas – 1965 -- Eastern Hemisphere – 1976 -- Western Hemisphere Hispanic Trends Project
  • 18. Revised Immigration Laws • Refugee Act of 1980 – International, ideological standards – Outside preference system • Immigration Reform & Control Act, 1986 – Employer sanctions – Legalization programs • Immigration Act of 1990 – 40% increase in immigration – Employment categories tripled – Diversity category created Hispanic Trends Project
  • 19. Post-1996 Immigration Laws • • • • • Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act of 2001 Real ID Act of 2005 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 20. Immigrant Population Hispanic Trends Project
  • 21. Immigrant Numbers Peak in 1930 -– Still Shrinking by 1970 40 Foreign-Born Population (millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Total 30 14.2 Million 20 10 9.6 Million 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000; Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013). 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 22. Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly from 1970 Low Point 40 Foreign-Born Population (millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Total 40.5 Million (2007, adj.) 30 14.2 Million 20 10 9.6 Million 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000; Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013). 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 23. Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly But Plateau After 2007 41.7 40 Foreign-Born Population (millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Total 40.5 Million (2007, adj.) 30 14.2 Million 20 10 9.6 Million 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000; Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013). 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 24. Immigrant Numbers at Peak – Percentage is Only Near Peak 41.7 40 Foreign-Born Population (millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Total 40.5 Million (2007, adj.) 30 14.8 Percent 20 10 13.4 Percent (2012) 4.7 Percent 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000; Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013). 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 25. Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born Mexico -- 20% 6.0 million Other Latin America -- 24% 7.1 million Mid-East -- 4% 1.2 million Africa, Other -- 5% 1.6 million Asia -- 31% 9.2 million Europe & Canada -- 16% 4.9 million 41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013). Hispanic Trends Project
  • 26. The Unauthorized Population Grew Rapidly Thru 2007 Millions of Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S. 12.0 11.1 (2007) (2005) 8.4 4 3 5 3.9 3.3 4-80 1-82 2.5 6-86 6-89 Source: Compilation from various sources; Pew Hispanic Center, 2000-2010 (Passel & Cohn 2011). 10-92 10-96 4-00 3-05 3-10 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 27. Total Unauthorized Downward Trend Established ‘07-‘09 13 12.2 Unauthorized population (millions) 11.3 11.1 11 10.1 9.4 8.6 9 7.9 6.8 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary 7 5.7 5 3.5 3 1990 1992 1994 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013. 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 28. Total Unauthorized Dropped‘07-‘09; Essentially No Change ‗09 to ‗12 13 12.2 Unauthorized population (millions) 11.3 11.1 11.5 11.7 11 10.1 9.4 8.6 9 7.9 6.8 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary 7 5.7 5 3.5 3 1990 1992 1994 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013. 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 29. Total Unauthorized Dropped‘07-‘09; Essentially No Change ‗09 to ‗12 Unauthorized population (millions) 12.2 12 11.5 11.3 11.7 11.1 10.1 10 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary 9.4 8.6 8 1990 1992 1994 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013. 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 30. Legal Status of Immigrants 2012 Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Aliens 10.9 million Unauthorized Immigrants 11.7 million 26% 28% Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs) 17.3 million 42% 4% Temporary Legal Residents 1.7 million 41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends preliminary estimates based on Passel et al. 2013. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 31. Mexico is Largest Source of Unauthorized, by Far Mexico -- 52% Other Latin America -- 24% 6.0 million 2.7 million Africa, Other -- 4% 0.4 million Europe & Canada -- 7% 0.8 million Asia -- 11% 1.3 million Mid-East -- 3% 0.3 million 11.7 Million Unauthorized in 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013). Hispanic Trends Project
  • 32. Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‗07; Dropped Considerable by ‗10 7 Unauthorized population Born in Mexico (millions) 6.9 6.4 6.3 5.6 5.0 5 4.5 4.1 3.5 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary 2.9 3 1.4 1 1990 1992 1994 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013. 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 33. Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‗07; No Indications of Increases thru ‗12 7 Unauthorized population Born in Mexico (millions) 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 5 4.5 4.1 3.5 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary 2.9 3 1.4 1 1990 1992 1994 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013. 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 34. Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ‘07; Unauthorized population (millions) 7 6 5.3 5.0 4.8 5 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.8 4 3.3 2.8 3 2 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013) 2.1 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 35. Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ‘07; Increases Since ‗09 (but not since ‗07) Unauthorized population (millions) 7 6 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.8 5 5.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.8 4 3.3 2.8 3 2 Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval White Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90% Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90% Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90% 2012 is preliminary Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013) 2.1 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 36. Legal Immigrant Arrivals  Growing Numbers & New Origins 1,050,000 Legal Immigrants Admitted, Average Annual 9% Europe & Canada Mexico Asia Other Latin America 770,000 All Other 6% 600,000 26% 15% 330,000 26% 11% 25% 10% 24% 450,000 250,000 14% 6% 70% 1951 to 1960 13% 47% 1961 to 1970 16% 35% 37% 45% 14% 12% 25% 35% 22% 15% 1971 to 1980 1981 to 1990* 19% 15% 1991 to 2000* 2001 to 2010 Hispanic Trends Project * Excludes IRCA legalizations
  • 37. Mexico is Largest Single Source of Legal Foreign-Born, Also Mexico -- 20% 6.0 million Other Latin America -- 24% 7.1 million Mid-East -- 4% 1.2 million Africa, Other -- 5% 1.6 million Asia -- 31% 9.2 million Europe & Canada -- 16% 4.9 million 30.0 Million Legal Immigrants in 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013). Hispanic Trends Project
  • 38. Focus on Growth of Mexicans in U.S. and Flows Hispanic Trends Project
  • 39. Key Features of Mexican Migration • Mexican Population in U.S. • Flows into U.S. • Other Features -- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007 -- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US) -- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007 -- Upward Trend in Late ‗90s; Peak ca. ‘99-‘01 -- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After ‘07 -- Most Flows now Legal (<20% pre-‘05) -- Role of Enforcement Uncertain -- Return Flows Increased after 2008 -- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US Hispanic Trends Project
  • 40. Growth to WWI & ‗20s; Depression  Deportations; Slow Expansion w/ Braceros Thousands of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Bracero Era Flood Tide Beginnings Deportations 8% Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) 750 Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 641 Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 7.5% 760,000 (1970) 576 500 5.0% 486 454 377 250 2.5% 222 42 13 24 68 78 103 0 0.0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 41. Scale Change… Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 12 30% Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 8 20% 6 15% 4 10% 8% 2 5% .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 760,000 (1970) 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 42. Rapid Growth through 2007; Acceleration Driven by Unauthorized Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 12 30% Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 8 20% 16% 6 15% 4 10% 8% 2,200,000 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 5% (1980) .760 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 43. Rapid Growth through 2007; Acceleration Driven by Unauthorized Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 12 30% 28% Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 7,700,000 8 (1996) 16% 6 20% 15% 4.5 4 10% 8% 2.2 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 5% .760 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 44. Rapid Growth through 2007; Acceleration Driven by Unauthorized Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 12 30% 12,770,000 Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 (2007 ACS--Adjusted) 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 9.4 8 20% 7.7 16% 6 15% 4.5 4 10% 8% 2.2 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 5% .760 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 45. Rapid Growth through 2007; Acceleration Driven by Unauthorized Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 32% 12 30% 12,770,000 Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 (2007 ACS--Adjusted) 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 9.4 8 20% 7.7 16% 6 15% 4.5 4 10% 8% 2.2 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 5% .760 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 46. Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011; Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 32% 12 30% 12,010,000 Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 (2012 CPS--Adjusted) 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 9.4 8 20% 7.7 16% 6 15% 4.5 4 10% 8% 2.2 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 5% .760 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 47. Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011; HUGE Share of Mexicans in U.S. Now Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Contradiction Bracero Era Flood Tide Deportations Undocumented Beginnings 32% 12 30% 12,010,000 Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 10 (2012 CPS--Adjusted) 25% Percent of Mexican Population in U.S. 9.4 8 20% 7.7 16% 6 15% 4.5 10.2% 4 10% 8% 9.3% 2.2 2 .013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222 .486 .641 .377 .454 .576 4.9% 5% .760 1.4% 0 0% 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 48. Annual Flows, the Economy & Enforcement Hispanic Trends Project
  • 49. Mexican In-Flows to US Peak in ‗00; Drop After ‗05 to One-Fifth of Peak in ‗10 Annual Total Immigration from Mexico to the U.S. (in 000s) % Employed of Labor Force In U.S. 770 670 96% 570 600 95% 580 94% 470 400 93% Mexico-U.S. Migration  370 250 92% 200 140 150  Rise 0 1990 Peak 91% 90% Decline  89% 1992 1994 1996 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 50. Link of In-Flows to Employment is Strong; Implies Economic Motivation to Migrate Annual Total Immigration from Mexico to the U.S. (in 000s) % Employed of Labor Force In U.S. 770 670 96% 570 600 95% 580 94% 470 400 93% U.S. Employment Rate  Mexico-U.S. Migration  370 250 92% 200 140 150  Rise 0 1990 Peak 91% 90% Decline  89% 1992 1994 1996 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 51. Border Apprehensions of Mexicans Track Flows, but at Higher Levels 1,637 1,499 Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border (in thousands) 1,085 1,140 981 770 974 882 662 404 Annual Mexican Immigration (Based on PHT estimates, in thousands) 370 266 140 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Pew Hispanic Trends for arrivals; DHS for apprehensions.
  • 52. ―Voluntary‖ Returns are DOWN, but Removals (Involuntary) are Up Persons Sent to Mexico By U.S. Government (000s) 1,560 Returns (from Apprehensions) 350 150 2000 280 Removals 2001 2002 2003 Source: Pew Hispanic Center based on Passel ,Cohn , & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 53. Apprehension Rate is Up, Eventually Succeeded Apprehended at Least Once 41% 28% Pre-1986 27% 1986-1993 31% 1994-2001 2002-2009 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
  • 54. Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT…Virtually Everyone Gets In 98% 100% 95% 97% Eventually Succeeded Apprehended at Least Once 41% 28% Pre-1986 27% 1986-1993 31% 1994-2001 2002-2009 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
  • 55. Many Unauthorized Come Through Ports of Entry Entered Without Inspection 6–7 million Entered Legally-- Border Crossing Card 250,000–500,000 (?) (4-5%) (55%) Entered Legally-- Nonimmigrant Visa Overstay 4–5.5 million (41%) 11-12 Million in 2005-2006 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 56. ―Green Cards‖ routinely exceed 1 million No declines since ‗00 (except ‗03) Legal Admissions (in 000s) Fiscal years Average Admissions, ‘00-‘11 1,266 1,034 All Other Mexico 1,107 1,131 1,122 1,059 1,059 1,052 1,043 1,062 958 916 850 798 720 704 655 90 1995 647 164 147 132 148 174 206 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 219 116 '02 '03 175 161 174 149 '04 2005 '06 '07 190 165 139 143 '08 '09 2010 '11 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, Office of Immigration Statistics, DHS
  • 57. Reversal of Mexico-U.S. Flows Hispanic Trends Project
  • 58. Major Shift from ‗95-‘00 to ‗05-‘10; Flows to Mexico More than Double U.S. to Mexico (000s) Mexico to U.S. (000s) 1,390 670 1995 to 2000 (Feb.) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on various sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2005 to 2010 (June) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 59. Major Shift from ‗95-‘00 to ‗05-‘10; Flows to US Down by 55% 2,940 U.S. to Mexico (000s) Mexico to U.S. (000s) 1,370 1995 to 2000 (Feb.) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on various sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2005 to 2010 (June) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 60. Result of Shifts  Net ZERO Migration for 2005-2010 2,940 U.S. to Mexico (000s) Mexico to U.S. (000s) 1,390 1,370 670 1995 to 2000 (Feb.) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on various sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2005 to 2010 (June) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 61. When Did the Flows Turn Around? ‘07-‘08 based on ―In US 5 Years Ago‖ Persons in Mexico at Census/Survey and in U.S. Five Years Earlier (thousands) 985 667 337 246 274 129 1990 Census 2000 Census Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexican sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2005 Conteo 2006 ENADID 2009 ENADID 2010 Census Hispanic Trends Project
  • 62. Flows into US Dropped Dramatically After 2005 Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s) 455 Mexico to U.S. Flow Estimate 325 265 195 130 2005-06 2006-07 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on various sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 63. Illustrative Estimates Point to Large Net Return Flows for 2008-2010 Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s) U.S. to Mexico 455 550 (Illustrative, ENADID) Mexico to U.S. Flow Estimate 325 265 350 195 150 160 130 180 2005-06 2006-07 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on various sources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 64. Who is Going Back to Mexico? Long-Term Mexican Migrants (5+ years in US) 825,000 (59%) U.S.-Born Children of Mexicans (Under 5) 210,000 (15%) U.S.-Born Children (>5) 110,000 (8%) Other Adults 53,000 (4%) Short-Term Mexican Migrants 200,000 (15%) 1.4 Million U.S. to Mexico Migrants, 2005-2010 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexican 2010 Census, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 65. New Pattern Emerging by 2009 -– Asian Inflows Surpass Latinos 59% 53% 51% Latino Arrivals 46% 42% (as Share of All Arrivals) 37% 36% Asian Arrivals 29% 19% 23% 2000 33% 32% 31% 2001 23% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 66. Characteristics of Unauthorized Immigrants in the U.S. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 67. Why Aren‘t More Leaving the US? • • • • Fear of Losing U.S. Job Situation in Mexico OK, Not Great Border Enforcement -- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S. Integration into U.S. Society -- Families Increasingly Rooted in U.S. -- U.S.-Born Children in School -- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options Hispanic Trends Project
  • 68. Unauthorized Men Work More; 92% 85% 80% Adult Men (18-64) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Unauthorized Immigrants Legal Foreign-Born All Natives Percent in Labor Force, 2011 Adult Women (18-64) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 69. Women Work Much Less Than Others Unauthorized Immigrants Legal Foreign-Born All Natives Percent in Labor Force, 2011 65% 71% 60% Adult Men (18-64) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Adult Women (18-64) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 70. Unauthorized Men Work More; Women Work Much Less Than Others 92% 85% 80% Unauthorized Immigrants Legal Foreign-Born All Natives Percent in Labor Force, 2011 65% 71% 60% Adult Men (18-64) Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Adult Women (18-64) Hispanic Trends Project
  • 71. Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with Children U.S. Native Households Legal Immigrant Households Unauthorized Immigrant Households Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Percent of Group‘s Households that are Couples with Children, 2011 20% 34% 44% Hispanic Trends Project
  • 72. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Has Become―Settled‖ in the U.S. Share of Unauthorized Immigrants Who Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More 59.4% 54.7% 50.3% 47.1% 42.4% 43.8% 39.4% 37.2% 35.8% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 73. Unauthorized Mexican Population Is Even More ―Settled‖ in the U.S. Share of Unauthorized Mexicans Who Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More 68.4% 61.6% 56.1% 52.6% 47.6% 44.6% 42.0% 40.8% 37.6% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 74. A Majority of Unauthorized Women Are Married or Have Children Unauthorized Immigrant Adults 2011 (millions) 0.9 Without Children With Children 2.6 0.9 Men without Partners or Children Men with Partners or Children Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Women without Partners or Children Women with Partners or Children Hispanic Trends Project
  • 75. A Majority of Unauthorized Men (!) Are Married or Have Children Unauthorized Immigrant Adults 2011 (millions) 1.0 Without Children With Children 2.5 Men without Partners or Children 2.2 Men with Partners or Children Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Women without Partners or Children Women with Partners or Children Hispanic Trends Project
  • 76. A Majority of Unauthorized Adults Are Married or Have Children Unauthorized Immigrant Adults 2011 (millions) 0.9 1.0 Without Children With Children 2.5 2.6 2.2 0.9 Men without Partners or Children Men with Partners or Children Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Women without Partners or Children Women with Partners or Children Hispanic Trends Project
  • 77. A Majority of Mexican Unauthorized Are Married or Have Children, Also Adult Unauthorized Immigrants, from Mexico 2011 (millions) 0.3 0.4 Without Children With Children Other Family 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.3 Men without Partners or Children Men with Partners or Children Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Women without Partners or Children Women with Partners or Children Hispanic Trends Project
  • 78. US-Born Children of Unauthorized Up but Unauthorized Children Decrease Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2011 (in millions) 4.6 U.S-Born Children of Unauthorized Parent(s) 2.1 1.5 Unauthorized Immigrant Children 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.9 2009 2010 2011 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 79. Among Mexican Unauthorized US-Born Children Up Even More Children with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2011 (in millions) U.S-Born Children of Unauthorized Mexican Parent(s) 1.4 0.90 2000 3.3 2001 Unauthorized Immigrant Children from Mexico 2002 2003 2004 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.48 2009 2010 2011 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 80. Unauthorized Families—5.5 M Others with a Very Mixed Composition Unauthorized Men 5.7 million 56% of Adults Unauthorized Children Unauthorized Women 4.5 million 44% of Adults 890,000 Only 8% of All Unauthorized U.S. Citizen Children 4.6 million 84% of Kids Other Adults 910,000 16.6 Million in Unauthorized Families, 2011 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 81. Unauthorized Mexican Families Have a Very Mixed Composition Unauthorized Men 3.3 million 58% of Adults Unauthorized Children Unauthorized Women 2.3 million 42% of Adults 475,000 Only 8% of All Unauthorized U.S. Citizen Children 3.3 million 87% of Kids Other Adults 585,000 10 Million in Unauthorized Mexican Families, 2011 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Hispanic Trends Project
  • 82. Large Number of ―DREAM‖ers Potentially Eligible for Deferred Deportation Ineligible Children 32% of Kids 300,000 Ineligible Adults 84% 9.5 million 1.4 Million Potential Beneficiaries Adults 18-20 700,000 In US before Age 16 In US 5+ years In School or College Degree 730,000 Under 18 150,000 Currently in School Future Potential 550,000 Most Under 15 Some 15-17 Not Currently in School 1.4 Million Potential ―DREAM‖ers Hispanic Trends Project Source: March 2010 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center.
  • 83. Where Do the Immigrants Live? Hispanic Trends Project
  • 84. Immigrants Are Concentrated New York -- 11% 4.5 million California -- 25% 10.4 million Texas -- 11% 4.5 million Florida -- 9% 3.8 million New Jersey -- 5% 2.0 million Illinois -- 4% 1.8 million All Others 36% 14.9 million 41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013). Hispanic Trends Project
  • 85. Core States – 73% in ‘90, 64% in ‘12 Immigrant Population Growth, 1990-2011 (US=104%) Hispanic Trends Project Major Destinations (65% in 2011) Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) Other ―New Growth‖ (154-251%) All Other States (22-126%) (6) (10) (17) (18) Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
  • 86. Ten Fastest Growing Immigrant Pops Immigrant Population Growth, 1990-2011 (US=104%) Hispanic Trends Project Major Destinations (65% in 2011) Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) Other ―New Growth‖ (154-251%) All Other States (22-126%) (6) (10) (17) (18) Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
  • 87. New Immigration Growth Centers Immigrant Population Growth, 1990-2011 (US=104%) Hispanic Trends Project Major Destinations (65% in 2011) Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) Other ―New Growth‖ (154-251%) All Other States (22-126%) (6) (10) (17) (18) Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
  • 88. Unauthorized Immigrants Move Away from California After 1990 Percent of Total Unauthorized Population CA, 42% 23% Others, 20% (700,000) TX, 13% NY, 10% FL, 7% IL, 6% NJ, 3% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Pew Research Center Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
  • 89. Unauthorized Spread is to ―New‖ Areas, not Traditional States Percent of Total Unauthorized Population CA, 42% 39% (4,700,000!) 23% Others, 20% (700,000) 13% TX, 13% NY, 10% 8% FL, 7% IL, 6% 5% NJ, 3% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Pew Research Center Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
  • 90. Unauthorized Spread Stops After ‘07; ―Others‖ Hold Constant Percent of Total Unauthorized Population CA, 42% 39% 40% (4,700,000!) (4,700,000) 21% Others, 20% (700,000) 15% TX, 13% NY, 10% 8% 7% FL, 7% IL, 6% 4% NJ, 3% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Hispanic Trends Project Source: Pew Research Center Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
  • 91. Dispersal of Unauthorized Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants, 2011 (11.1 million) Hispanic Trends Project 1,700,000-2,600,000 475,000-775,000 120,000-350,000 40,000-100,000 Less than 35,000 (2) (4) (12) (19) (14) Source: Consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012, superseded.
  • 92. New Growth  High % Unauthorized % Unauthorized of Foreign-Born, 2011 (U.S. = 28%) Hispanic Trends Project Highest % Unauthorized (36-50%) (19) (9) High % Unauthorized (28-34%) (12) Low % Unauthorized (22-27%) Lowest % Unauthorized (<20%) (11) Source: Consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012, superseded.
  • 93. Unauthorized Workers Numbers and Shares Increased through 2007 Millions of unauthorized immigrant workers 7.4 6.3 6.4 6.5 4.6% 5.0% 5.2% 2001 2002 2003 Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. 7.8 8.0 8.0 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% Unauthorized immigrant workers as share of labor force 3.8% 2000 7.8 8.2 6.8 5.5 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 8.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hispanic Trends Project
  • 94. % Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2011 % Unauthorized of Labor Force (2011, U.S. = 5.2%) Hispanic Trends Project Very Highest (8.9%-10.7%) (4) Above Average (5.7%-6.9%) (6) (7) Average (4.4%-5.3%) Below Average (2.6%-4.0%) (14) (20) Very Lowest (<2.3%) Source: Consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012, superseded.
  • 95. 1-in-15 of K-12 Students is the Child of an Unauthorized Immigrants 77.0% All children US-born child Immigrant child 16.1% 13.3% 2.8% U.S.-born parent Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented 2010 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012. Percent of K-12 School Enrollment, 2010 Legal immigrant parent 6.9% 5.0% 1.8% Unauthorized immigrant parent Hispanic Trends Project
  • 96. % of K-12 with Unauthorized Parents 10% 17% 15% 18% 13% % of K-12 Students with Unauthorized Parent(s) (2010, U.S. = 6.9%) Hispanic Trends Project Very Highest (10%-18%) Average (6.7%-7.6%) Below Average (3.8%-6.4%) Well Below Average (2.0%-3.5%) Very Lowest (<1.9%) (5) (7) (15) (11) (13) Source: Consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012, superseded.
  • 97. What About the Future? • Flows Down—Response to Economy – Enforcement May Be Working • Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now • Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant • Changes in Mexico Affect Flows – Smaller Birth Cohorts Less Demographic Pressure – Break in Flows May Weaken Networks • Key Features of Unauthorized Population – Families, Not Just Individuals – Networks and Culture Have Enhanced Flows – Scale is Large and Dispersed Hispanic Trends Project
  • 98. Thank You! Hispanic Trends Project
  • 99. Contact Information Jeffrey S. Passel Senior Demographer jpassel@pewresearch.org 202-419-3625 (direct) 202-527-2146 (mobile) Hispanic Trends Project Hispanic Trends Project

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