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  • 1. « The Quaternary Marketing » A new theory of marketing in the digital era and NBIC: The five revolutions of Marketing !Paris, 29th may 2012 Bruno TEBOUL
  • 2. The author: Bruno TeboulCorporate Digital Marketing Director(The european leader in ICT)Master of Epistemology(1993 - University of Paris 12)Post Graduate Diploma in Cognitive Neurosciences(1994 - Ecole Polytechnique)Executive MBA(2003 - HEC/UCLA)PhD student in Marketing & Management Science(2012 University Paris-Dauphine) Bruno Teboul
  • 3. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing… Bruno Teboul
  • 4. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing… Bruno Teboul
  • 5. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…Chaos can be understood by comparing it with two othertypes of behaviors – randomness and periodicity.Random behaviors never repeat themselves although wecan predict the average behavior of a system usingstatistics.Periodic behavior is highly predictable because it alwaysrepeats itself, for example, the swinging of a pendulum.Such systems are deterministic, i.e. if we know theconditions at any one point we can predict thoseconditions at any other point in time.Chaos has characteristics of both behaviors likeMarketing Theory: although it seems disorganized likerandom behavior, it is deterministic like periodicbehavior. Bruno Teboul
  • 6. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…The concept of “catastrophe” should be considered hereas its Greek etymology "Katastrophe" means “upheaval”that is abrupt and unforeseen.The catastrophe theory as defined occurs when goingfrom one stable equilibrium point, a new stable statedifferent, naturally this balance may - be relative andfragile. The customer in all its components (actions,perceptions, emotions) might well be considered aninformational field, protei-form.Stocks, flows, stimuli ... which feeds the customer, via atransmitter (marketing campaign / brand communicationfor example), or an observer (Marketing Studies Manager...) and it feeds back (interactions) determine atopological figure through which the client will movefrom an initial situation (time 0 of the observation orreceiving the stimulus transmitter) considered anequilibrium point. Bruno Teboul
  • 7. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…From there, a multi – modal path offers the customerto "navigate" according to its state at the time (thetime of receptivity, perception, past experience of abrand, product, a point sale ..) or whether hisapproach is exploratory (impulse purchase, oracquisition of information) or confirmatory (purchasereflected).The choice of a path (behavioral modality) results incatastrophe (as defined above), that is to say, thebreaking of the initial equilibrium (symbolized by thecrease, for example in one of the models catastrophetheory of René THOM).The terms of choice, translate into behavior and thusdetermine trajectories in a space of possibility (buying- not buying, loyalty – churn). Bruno Teboul
  • 8. Raymond Poincaré René Thom Edward Lorenz Edgar Morin My own intellectual journey and university led me to the study of Cybernetics 2, the cognitive sciences (including neuroscience and AI) and to the theories of Poincaré, Thom, Lorenz and Morin which I applied to the humanities and then management science and now marketing in particular. Indeed, the most surprising is the analogy between the evolution of science and scientific theories revisited in the classics by these three theories "Chaos", "Catastrophe" and "Complexity" where I will describe the concept of Theory “3C applied in Marketing! Bruno Teboul
  • 9. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…When examining more closely the reasons why marketing is aincreasingly complex discipline , the concept of "chaos" in thescientific sense may be attributed: one thinks immediately of thedistortion of results that is observed between the initial conditions ofa product test conducted in a focus group for example and theactual results of sales a few weeks or months after the effectivelaunch of the product and its marketing.Indeed, this equation cannot apparent that the findings of acustomer study = consumer events predictive founded the "chaotic"Marketing ".Because the change of initial states (here the variation andinaccurate responses panelists for example) will cause an oppositereaction and very serious consequences for the subsequent eventsthat are normally "predictable" (launch failure of a new product onthe market following a study by the declarative bias of participantswho say the opposite of what they think ...), but "not achieved" withinthe meaning of the term probability. Bruno Teboul
  • 10. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…This complexity can become totally chaotic and erratic andgenerate a deterministic noise. It is in this sense that marketinggets into trouble when there is an extremely sensitive dependenceon initial conditions.A very small initial change can impact in very important andunexpected ways. This is what is called chaotic behavior. Thefamous "flap of a butterfly can cause a tornado...“ Bruno Teboul
  • 11. The 6th marketing revolution: The Chaos Marketing…The transition from stable to chaotic dynamics depends onthe combination and the relative strength of differentelements. Although governed by deterministic rules, themultiplicity of interactions and relationships betweenvariables transforms the elements into a complex systemwhose behavior is unpredictable and impossible toanticipate. Unpredictability of determinism are born onchance.Therefore, the impact of a minimal change in the initial stateof a chaotic system is unpredictable and can cause changesdramatically different with considerable differences inoutcomes. Consequently, one can doubt the ability to modela prediction in marketing: it is indeed a problem of methodand a paradigm shift required to make marketing become aform of predictive science ... Bruno Teboul
  • 12. The 6th marketing revolution: « The Chaos Marketing » Inspired by the work of Ilya Prigogine Vision of Quaternary Marketing (Applied Chaos Classic and obsolete vision of Marketing Theory) Marketing defines according to Philip Marketing today is a Marketing Complexity, Kotler and supporters of Marketing Advanced Technologies and the Convergence of Management. Sciences. Marketing has gone through in our five major Marketing is evolving in a linear, stable, revolutions and is trapped by three great paradoxes predictable and controllable. that should allow it to adapt and evolve as an academic discipline and applied. Marketing now obeys several paradigms and The main paradigm is the Marketing Mix complement coexistente: Homo non-Bayesian, (nPs theory). Heuristics and bias, Neuroscientist and Data models The customer relationship is based on a The relationship with the consumer based on a standard outline "behaviorist": Stimuli cognitive approach and neuro-scientific: Stimuli >>> Response (Procter: Solutions > >>> Black Box >>> Response. Response). The consumer is rational and Bayesian (legacy of the micro-economics and the concept of Homo Economicus), loving The consumer is not rational, faithless … the consumer market and ready to spend consumer is saturated with information (Big Data), amazingly... Advertisers are willing to polluted by thousands of advertisements that dolavish advertising costs in the mass media not interest him (Big Ads), for products that have to sell products, permanently install their neither pleasure nor utility to buy…brand, or consolidate their hegemony in a market ... Bruno Teboul