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The 4th and 5th Marketing Revolutions_Data Scientist Age and Bayesian Paradox !

The 4th and 5th Marketing Revolutions_Data Scientist Age and Bayesian Paradox !

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  • 1. « The Quaternary Marketing » The 4th and 5th Marketing Revolutions: Data Scientist Age and Bayesian Paradox !Paris, 29th may 2012 Bruno TEBOUL
  • 2. The author: Bruno TeboulCorporate Digital Marketing Director(The european leader in ICT)Master of Epistemology(1993 - University of Paris 12)Post Graduate Diploma in Cognitive Neurosciences(1994 - Ecole Polytechnique)Executive MBA(2003 - HEC/UCLA)PhD student in Marketing & Management Science(2012 University Paris-Dauphine) Bruno Teboul
  • 3. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… Bruno Teboul
  • 4. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… « The BIG DATA »: Bruno Teboul
  • 5. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… « The BIG DATA »:Bruno Teboul
  • 6. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… « BIG DATA »:In a new paper titled, " Closing the MarketingCapabilities Gap," Wharton School professor GeorgeDay addresses the disconnect between the demands ofmarkets and the ability of firms to meet those demands.Such a gap, he points out, is "costing firms profitabilitynow and competitiveness in the future."Using Days paper -- and also a new IBM study basedon conversations with 1,700 chief marketing officersworldwide -- Day and colleague David Reibstein talkedwith Knowledge@Wharton about the growing flood ofdata, new knowledge sharing technology, the sociallynetworked and ever demanding consumer, and howsome companies are successfully building theircustomer base, among other topics. Bruno Teboul
  • 7. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… « BIG DATA » Unfortunately, older data processingtechnologies (such as Relational Database Management Systems, or RDBMS) are simply not capable of processing data in volumes that the industry has collectively coined “Big Data” volumes that are in terabytes/petabytes.As such, we position the consumer as the only real appreciating asset and we tie everything together through the use of Big Data. Bruno Teboul
  • 8. The 4th marketing revolution: The Data Scientist Age…Data enables us to understand customers and to manage contactand content strategy. Data is a core component of integratedmarketing and, via an integrated approach, we can speak with asingle voice across channels and lines of businesses.However, to succeed in a meaningful way at that level ofcustomer centricity, we have to manage all that data in a way thatholistically fuels customer engagement and experience. Thateffort requires a whole ecosystem of people, processes, andtechnology.Even the most sophisticated and modern businesses today aresurprisingly ill equipped to manage even the most basic digitalmarketing standards and activities, let alone jettison forward intothe new world of Big Data techniques. Bruno Teboul
  • 9. The 4th marketing revolution: Data Scientist Age… A data scientist represents an evolution from the business or data analyst role. Anjul Bhambhri, vice president of big data products at IBM, says, “A data scientist is somebody who is inquisitive, who can stare at data and spot trends. Its almost like a Renaissance individual who really wants to learn and bring change to an organization.” A Data Scientist need to have the mathematics, statistics, and computer science skills in order to really work with data and be able to analyze it… Bruno Teboul
  • 10. The 4th marketing revolution: The Data Scientist Age… Bruno Teboul
  • 11. The 5th marketing revolution: The Bayesian paradox… Bruno Teboul
  • 12. The 5th marketing revolution: « The bayesian paradox »… “The Bayesian Paradox”: Human beings are not Bayesian, as it is necessary to use the power of Bayesian computation (through thelanguage R ) such probabilistic modeling for predictive analysis. Bruno Teboul
  • 13. The 5th marketing revolution: « The bayesian paradox »… Bruno Teboul
  • 14. The 5th marketing revolution: The Bayesian paradox… Daniel Kahneman Amos Tversky Intuitive statistical judgment and inference have been most famously studied within the heuristics and biases tradition of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman . The idea is that people assess uncertainty by use of simple heuristics that are often effective but can lead to cognitive biases. Bruno Teboul
  • 15. Bruno Teboul
  • 16. The 5th marketing revolution: The Bayesian paradox… End of the Homo Economicus Myth !Bruno Teboul
  • 17. John Maynard Keynes Herbert Simon Pierre Boudieu Ludwig Von Mises The 5th marketing revolution: The Bayesian paradox… Bruno Teboul
  • 18. The 5th marketing revolution: The bayesian paradox…Therefore, the judgment can not be perfectlypredicted by the standard Bayesian.The hypothesis of a "man statistician" in nature nolonger holds and the effects of this scientificstatement are serious consequences for the basictenets of traditional marketing.It is both notable and regrettable that the 13thedition of Marketing Management by Philip Kotlerdedicates only a single page "with heuristics"whereas 800 pages are dedicated to thediscoveries of the psychology of reasoning andcognitive neuroscience, which refute the theory of"homo economicus“, the conceptual basis oftraditional marketing, the legacy of themicroeconomics of the same period. Bruno Teboul
  • 19. The 5th marketing revolution:The bayesian paradox… Bruno Teboul
  • 20. The 5th marketing revolution: The bayesian paradox… Bruno Teboul