While globalization is making the world “smaller”, we will continue to live in a world of increasing cultural, economic, and technological divides that have the potential to fuel the fires of hate and resentment against the west. In the studies done since September 11, including our own study within the ACG, one repeatedly sees calls for understanding and addressing “root causes” of terrorism, as well as understanding and protecting against our vulnerabilities. A key part of security will be understand what this means, and find ways to deal with these root causes, drawing on communication and cooperation across these divides. Current administration recognizes these factors and is engaged in proactive research partnerships globally. One such initiative is the US – Mexico Cooperation.
Structural and functional properties of complex systems rest on foundations in mathematics, physics, biology, social sciences, computer science, philosophy, art, technology. Methods developed for artificial intelligence, artificial life, catastrophe theory, chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics, evolution, systems theory, statistical mechanics can be applied cross-domains using the underlying formalisms, and structure and functional framework of networks. MIT search on complexity: information theory, computer science, physics, manufacturing, applied mathematics, electrical engineering control systems Workshop participants: Crutchfield – evolutionary dynamics, networks, need to define observables for terrorism. Castillo-Sanchez: epidemiological formalism, when applied to ideological transference examined susceptibility, resilience of extreme communities and spread of ideologies with phase transitions dependent upon initial core group size and rate of recruitment; ANL – work on interconnected networks; Eric bonabeau: swarm behaviors; psychology of terrorism; user needs; INTEL – real world problems of cyber security and organizational robustness under malicious attack scenarios. Josh Epstein – Brookings work for spread of bio-agents and inoculation strategies included people interacting with institutions and infrastructures. There were four general themes that could be abstracted from the workshop. The need for increased formalism in areas such as standardized methodologies and approaches, and accessible data sets – aka infrastructure or mechanisms allowing models and simulation tools to be built Issues related to use of the models, including definition of user needs, questions, and type of analysis desired correlated to what different model types can provide Need for emergence of new paradigms – new ways of thinking about organizations (non-linear), cross-disciplinary conversations and novel application of metaphors across fields, cross-agency conversations… Discussions around fundamental understandings of terrorist organizations as complex systems and the nature of terrorism itself
Complexity: Order from disorder – what does system structure look like? Random? Centralized? Growing? Directed? Degree of connectivity? Embedded? Timescale of Processes and decision making: Evolutionary dynamics look at functional role of network and how fitness functions evolve. Robustness can be examined with respect to how systems adapt, evolve in response to environmental perturbations – Self-aware? Here it is key to look at the immediate needs and threats, versus long term. Key will be timeframe of these – punctuated equilibria? Epochal? Diffusive? Function role for analysis (human or machine) -
ACG-sponsored workshop aimed at vetting the KnowNet concept Questions addressed: what needs KnowNet would serve, how the network might be employed by various end users and researchers, how the human and technical aspects of the network might be structured, how the KnowNet might be grown and managed, and how it might be funded Gary Ackerman, MIIS Harry Betz, FBI / NM AG Jeff Cares, Alidade Hsinchun Chen, U of AZ John Cummings, DHS David Hamon, DTRA Merle Lefkoff, LANL Mark Maybury, MITRE Ariel Merari, Peter Levine Greg Treverton, RAND Patricia Medvick, PNNL Jerrold Post, GWU Raghu Ramakrishnan, U of WI Marc Sageman, U of PA Desmond Saunders-Newton, DARPA Marissa Urgo, DOE
I will move through this section quickly, as you will be hearing more about these tools later… These tools use information accessable through the Library and News sections -Info vis tools for summarizing large data sets (VxInsight) Attensity Corp. in Salt Lake City has created what amounts to a high-tech sentence diagrammer, which can examine a document and figure out whether a reference to &quot;Wood,&quot; for example, means a person or a place. (Washington Post) Linguistics based. Potential for ontology automation?????? -scenarios and models for representation, communication, and further analysis
Organization by information view (local navigation) is consistent with the general requirement of providing different views for different needs. VxInsight is featured, in this instance, showing the distribution of patents, with the hills showing the highest concentration of data. This particular visualization can be used to determine areas ripe for innovation. We’ve seen community and tools, next- the information….. What are other useful ways to visualize information? Are they cheap? Effective? Understandable?
See “chatter” in signal where there are ambiguous warnings and signals…when event happens, it is often too late for a resopnse – goes into system overload….like emergency room experience if wait too long to go. Need to visit doctor early on to prevent the situation in the first place, and have actionable intermediate steps if headed towards a problem. At present, have too much “chatter: in the system to know that are heading towards a problem. What are the means by which we can increase the quality of the signal? understanding the threat (know what is a significant event within a chain of events and context) understanding our vulnerabilities (contributes to relevance of information)
“With suicide terrorism, the attributional problem is to understand why nonpathological individuals respond to novel situational factors in numbers sufficient for recruiting organizations to implement policies. In the Middle East, perceived contexts in which suicide bombers and supporters express themselves include a collective sense of historical injustice, political subservience, and social humiliation vis-à-vis global powers and allies, as well as countervailing religious hope (supporting online text on radical Islam's historical novelty). Addressing such perceptions does not entail accepting them as simple reality; however, ignoring the causes of these perceptions risks misidentifying causes and solutions for suicide bombing”. Scott Atran, Science, Vol 299, March 7 2003 Beginning in the late 70’s, Mark Granovetter, initiated research into the system dynamics involved in individual and collective behaviors, developing mathematical models for thresholds of collective behaviors, and the complex relationship between these thresholds, other causal factors of behavior, and “emergent norms”, . A key concept in his work was that of “Threshold”: The number or proportion of others who must make one decision before a given actor does so. This threshold point is where net benefits begin to exceed net costs for that particular actor. In the twenty years since,a rich body of research has contributed to this field, including best seller books, such as gladwell’s “”the Tipping Point” , which looks at how major society changes can come about from little things, and Gary Klein’s work on human decision making (Sources of Power), showing the importance of recognizing “leverage points”. Recent work by Samuel Bowles and others at the Santa Fe Institute (winter 2000) has taken this work further to explore the dynamics of trust and exclusion in networks…modeling trust as a best response in a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium…this work explores the idea of parochial networks, which he defines as “sets of agents negated in relatively frequent, non-anonymous interactions structured by high entry and exit costs, but lacking centralized collective decision-making institutions” …”often motivated by racial and ethnic hatred and religious intolerance”…as an optimization problem. These examples are part of a growing body of research work that lays a foundation for examining social dynamics in the language and formalism of complex systems analysis.
Acg Terr Sand2004 2130w
Advanced Concepts Group War on Terrorism Activities http:// www.sandia.gov/capabilitites/acg/index.html Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee Nancy K. Hayden April 23, 2004 SAND2004-2130W Unclassified Unlimited Release Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Terrorism: It’s About People <ul><li>Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives </li></ul><ul><li>Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..) </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamental religious movements will continue to foster rebellion against modernism </li></ul>Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations
Terrorism is a Complex Problem Knowledge Network The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it Logistics/ Infrastructure Social/ psychological Simulation Multidimensional Games Red, Blue, Green White, Purple MOADB indications & warnings increase hope warn first responders manipulate - deceive - control - dissuade - deter - destroy enhanced collection scenario driven hypothesis smart decision making individuals and groups mitigate Reality
Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms Intrinsic network features transcend domains Santa Fe Institute Workshop April 10-11, 2003 How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior Sandia, Argonne, LANL, CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy Cornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade, U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings
Systems Thinking: Frame the Problem Predict Analysis Function Timeframe System Complexity Describe Explore Interpret Infer Suggest Modeling approaches depend on what problem is being addressed
The Advanced Concepts Group <ul><li>Dotology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The application of red gaming and computer reasoning tools to the generation of terrorism hypotheses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Knownet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The creation of a virtual community of terrorism experts to share and create knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Seldon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The development of computational sociopsychological models to better understand the complex behaviors of terrorist organizations. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mentor/Pal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The study of novel human-machine systems using physiological monitors to enable superior group performance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SDAC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sense/decide/act/communicate devices that create inexpensive, self organizing systems for detection and reaction </li></ul></ul>
<ul><li>Partners: </li></ul><ul><li>KDD program within ITIC </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD team in 5500 and 5900 </li></ul><ul><li>This year: </li></ul><ul><li>Hold another game or two in ’04 </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD to build prototype Hypothesizer </li></ul><ul><li>Transition concept to intel community with support from 5500 and 5900. </li></ul><ul><li>Dotology team: Rick Craft, Judy Moore, John Whitley </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept Improve our nation’s ability to "connect the dots" to allow interdiction prior to an terrorist event. Creation of a national “red gaming” capability to generate and collect hypothetical scenarios and the creation of a data warehouse that would store these scenarios and fragments, in a computer manipulatible format at the level of “observable” events. Design of a tool, the “Hypothesizer”, calling on the data warehouse to expand the view of analysts for what might be unfolding and to eliminate spurious “dots” inconsistent with reasonable scenarios. <ul><li>IWFO project with KDD (part of ITIC) </li></ul><ul><li>Red Game held in July 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD to develop data structures for data warehouse </li></ul><ul><li>White paper on Red Teaming for Homeland Security </li></ul><ul><li>White paper on a National Counter Terrorism Univ. </li></ul>The Science of Connecting the Dots
A Recurrent Need <ul><li>The need to “know” the </li></ul><ul><li>terrorist has emerged </li></ul><ul><li>repeatedly in the </li></ul><ul><li>concepts that the </li></ul><ul><li>ACG has explored </li></ul>Control Dangerous Things Control Bad Actors rists Enable Dynamic Mitigation Support Apprehension & Prosecution Strengthen Emergency Response Know Ourselves, the Threat, & the Current Situation Resources Targets & Public & Private Responders Harden Critical Resources Terr o
Problem The nation needs to develop deep and comprehensive knowledge of terrorism and make this knowledge accessible where it is needed, when it is needed, and in the form needed. Approach Create a (inter-)national network that provides insight on short and long-term terrorist-related issues using experts who are fed with high-grade source information and supported by an infrastructure that enables communication, analysis, and collaboration. <ul><li>SFI workshop explored terrorism as complex system behavior with experts </li></ul><ul><li>KnowNet white paper explains ACG concept </li></ul><ul><li>KnowFest started building a functioning community of very diverse experts (Mini-Net) </li></ul><ul><li>KnowNet Pilot </li></ul><ul><li>Current Work </li></ul><ul><li>Nurture Mini-Net collaborations </li></ul><ul><li>Community white paper on Know Net </li></ul><ul><li>Pursue DHS Interest in S&T (Gary Strong) </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborate with DTRA/DHS to develop KnowNet implementation options </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD for Rapid Knowledge Generation to support other SNL/DHS terrorism work </li></ul><ul><li>Transition KnowNet program to SNL line organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Team Members : Nancy Hayden , Rick Craft </li></ul><ul><li>External Partners : St. Andrews, GWU, MIIS, MITRE, Tel Aviv University, U of Penn, U of Michigan, IDSS, RAND </li></ul>Accomplishments The Future
Knownet Toolbox <ul><li>Provide COTS/USG information visualization and analysis tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VxInsight: landscape views </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Starlight suite : network and context analyses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ClearForest: concept and link analyses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attensity : syntactic and semantic freeform text analysis, discivers entities and relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Incorporate Rapid Knowledge Generation middleware </li></ul><ul><li>Access to scenarios and behavior simulation models </li></ul>
Network models 3d models Scenarios Visualizations VxInsight
SELDON - Computational Simulation of Social Tipping Points <ul><li>Prototype agent-based model of recruitment within multiple social networks. </li></ul><ul><li>Preliminary results confirm strong role of social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Gang-terrorist analogy paper </li></ul><ul><li>Partners: Nina Berry (8964), Teresa Ko (8964), Ann Speed (12335), and Professor Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Melon University) </li></ul><ul><li>Team: Tim Moy, Julienne Smrcka, Jessica Turnley, and Ben Wu (POC) </li></ul><ul><li>Future Path: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model middle east terrorists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop transition plan to line organization. </li></ul></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept Problem: improve our understanding of the factors and processes that lead to the emergence and persistence of terrorists Research question: how do we intervene in the recruitment pipeline so groups do not achieve size and structure necessary to support violent behavior? Approach: develop a computational psycho-social model that allows us to play ‘what if’ games with interventions in the recruitment pipeline to identify those which will preclude the development of a group structure that will lead to violence
Threat Awareness and Response Relevant Information Time Event Delayed Detection Response Threshold System Overload Desired Response Curve Today’s Response Curve
Mentor/Pal Team <ul><li>Prototype system for novel group observations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Live Demo </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology Roadmap to 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>System Architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Quickplace collaborative website </li></ul><ul><li>Lockheed Martin Skunk Works symposium </li></ul><ul><li>Human Studies Board approval </li></ul><ul><li>NASA Human Performance 2003 talk (Oct.) </li></ul><ul><li>Prof. Akaysha Tang, UNM: State of the art EEG and MEG laboratory, FY04 collaboration planned </li></ul><ul><li>Dave Warner, MD, Ph.D.,MindTel LLC: Mobile Op Center wireless application FY04 (potential) </li></ul><ul><li>Cal Tech student fellowships: Center for Neuromorphic Engineering (potential) </li></ul><ul><li>Dialogue with SNL line organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Interest from potential IC and DoD sponsors. </li></ul><ul><li>Project Manager: Merkle </li></ul><ul><li>ACG Team: Johnson, Jones, Craft </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD PI: Adele Doser (15311) </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept <ul><li>Need: Improve the performance of people in situations with </li></ul><ul><li>High cognitive loads and high consequence decisions </li></ul><ul><li>High stress and time-critical operations </li></ul><ul><li>Unpredictable, ambiguous, non-recurring environments </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges for realistic training </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple people and machines </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: security operations centers, long-duration duty crews, team training simulators, crisis operations teams </li></ul><ul><li>Approach: Observe humans in collaborations under stress </li></ul><ul><li>What are signatures of high-performing collaborations? </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: novel systems coach teams to high performance </li></ul>Accelerometry, GSR, Pulse oximetry EMG, EKG, Respiration, Voice Face video, keystroke, Mouse x, y, click Voice recognition, EEG
S ense D ecide A ct C ommunicate Project Team <ul><li>Partners: Key Sandia Staff and Line Orgs collaborating on Talon Project, Talon Initiative, and related sensor, comms, networking, and information processing & fusion technologies; </li></ul><ul><li>Institute for Defense Analysis (Joint Urban Ops) </li></ul><ul><li>Transition plans: Influence LDRD Investments; Implementation of major funded program under Talon Initiative; Influence on, and contribution to, accelerating efforts at national level </li></ul><ul><li>SDAC Team: Ron Pate and Regan Stinnett </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept <ul><li>Improved ISR and Precision Situational Awareness at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels are needed for the War on Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Networked Sense/Decide/Act/Communicate (SDAC) “systems of systems” can provide the Virtual Presence capabilities needed for precision awareness and response in military, intelligence, and homeland security applications </li></ul><ul><li>Raised awareness within Sandia re/ networked SDAC concepts; Influenced FY03-04 LDRDs </li></ul><ul><li>Helped launch (and contributing to) Talon LDRD Project, internal SDAC-related strategic vision and road-mapping, and Talon Initiative </li></ul><ul><li>Sponsoring SDAC LDRD Architectural Tradeoff Study and Demo System Development Project </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitating high-level national workshop Oct’03 </li></ul>
Long Term Solutions… Goal: understand the society and shift the distribution in our favor Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters