The 2012 Elections & the Impact on the US Economy                       Daniel Palazzolo                 Professor of Poli...
The 2012 Elections-Why Romney?       *Lead in National Polls before IA Caucus       *Money Raised       *Endorsements-Fore...
Gallup Poll of National Republicans: Eve of IA Caucuses          26% 30                          22% 25 20                ...
Funds Raise by 4th Quarter of 2011Santorum         $2,178,703    Paul                                $25,901,703 Gingrich ...
Endorsements             829080       64706050                                                         Pre Iowa40         ...
Forecasting the 2012 Presidential ElectionPolitical Science Models: 3 Key Factors  • State of the Economy  • Presidential ...
Unemployment Rate: March 2008-March 2012                                                     (Bureau of Labor Statistics)1...
Approval of Incumbents Running for Re-election                              (Gallup polls)80      7570              6260  ...
Historical Model       Alan Lichtman: 13 Keys to the PresidencyKey 1: Incumbent Party Mandate (midterm election results): ...
A very close race                   Tracking Polls @                 realclearpolitics.comhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com...
Campaigns Matter: Four Questions(1) Where is the Party?(2) What have you done?(3) What will you do?(4) Who are you?
Candidate Preference: GOP Voters (Pew: Feb 8-12)45        424035                            34     3030                  2...
Candidate Preference: Conservative v.        Moderate/Liberal (Pew: Feb 8-12)40      3635                   3430          ...
Support for Romney: Certainty Among Groups                            (Pew Research Center April 4-18, 2012)100           ...
Presidential Vote by Party                        (Pew April 4-15)100      92                        909080706050         ...
Romney                               Obama                                                  Repeal Bush tax cuts incomes a...
Who Are You?The GOP Successor/ Businessman   The Likable Incumbent
Public Opinion of President Obama                (Pew Research Center, Jan 11-16, 2012)9080                               ...
Candidate Choice by Most Important Issue                     (Pew April 4-15)60                                           ...
Vote for Obama Net % Difference Key Groups:                      2008-2012                       (2008 exit poll v. Pew 20...
Battleground States• Link to http://www.270towin.com/  The tan colored states are off for grabs, but  the top 7 battlegrou...
Unemployment Rates in Key Battleground States              (March 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics)14                     ...
2012 Congressional ElectionsCurrent House: GOP 242 / Democrats 1932012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats        Toss Ups    ...
The 2012 Elections & The Impact on the US Economy
The 2012 Elections & The Impact on the US Economy
The 2012 Elections & The Impact on the US Economy
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The 2012 Elections & The Impact on the US Economy

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National Investor Relations Institute on April 27 2012

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  • Romney weak support among Tea Party in February
  • Romney weak support among conservatives in February
  • Romney Strong Support Among Tea Party and Conservatives in April
  • Photos from the Wall Street Journal: online.wsj.com
  • The 2012 Elections & The Impact on the US Economy

    1. 1. The 2012 Elections & the Impact on the US Economy Daniel Palazzolo Professor of Political Science University of RichmondNational Investor Relations InstituteApril 26 2012
    2. 2. The 2012 Elections-Why Romney? *Lead in National Polls before IA Caucus *Money Raised *Endorsements-Forecasting Models of the Presidential Election Political Science Model Historical Model-Campaigns Matter: Four Campaign Questions-VA the BattlegroundEconomic Effects
    3. 3. Gallup Poll of National Republicans: Eve of IA Caucuses 26% 30 22% 25 20 13% 11% 15 10 5 0 Romney Gingrich Paul Santorum Source: http://www.gallup.com
    4. 4. Funds Raise by 4th Quarter of 2011Santorum $2,178,703 Paul $25,901,703 Gingrich $25,901,305 Romney $56,465,509 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 Source: http:// opensecrets.org
    5. 5. Endorsements 829080 64706050 Pre Iowa40 As of Feb 930 1420 9 3 3 0 210 0 Romney Gingrich Paul Santorum Source: http://www.p2012.org/candidates/natendorse.html
    6. 6. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential ElectionPolitical Science Models: 3 Key Factors • State of the Economy • Presidential Approval • Incumbency
    7. 7. Unemployment Rate: March 2008-March 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)12 9.9 9.410 9.5 9.4 9.1 8.5 9.8 9.8 9.5 8.9 8 7.3 8.7 8.9 8.2 5.6 6 6.1 4 5.1 2 0 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Mar-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
    8. 8. Approval of Incumbents Running for Re-election (Gallup polls)80 7570 6260 58 54 5350 4840 37 343020100 Ike 56 Nixon 68 Carter 80 Reagan Bush 92 Clinton Bush 04 Obama 84 96 12
    9. 9. Historical Model Alan Lichtman: 13 Keys to the PresidencyKey 1: Incumbent Party Mandate (midterm election results): XKey 2: No Serious Nomination Challenge: OKey 3: Incumbent Running for Re-election: OKey 4: Third Party Challenge: OKey 5: Short-term Economy (Election Year): ?Key 6: Long-term Economy (Growth better than previous terms: XKey 7: Major Policy Change (e.g. health care reform): ?Key 8: Social Unrest: OKey 9: Scandal: OKey 10: Foreign Policy or Military Failure: OKey 11: Foreign Policy or Military Success: OKey 12: Incumbent Charisma: XKey 13: Challenger Charisma: OIf incumbent party loses 5 or less keys, it holds on to the White House.(But no winner has ever lost the short term economy key.)
    10. 10. A very close race Tracking Polls @ realclearpolitics.comhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election _romney_vs_obama-1171.html
    11. 11. Campaigns Matter: Four Questions(1) Where is the Party?(2) What have you done?(3) What will you do?(4) Who are you?
    12. 12. Candidate Preference: GOP Voters (Pew: Feb 8-12)45 424035 34 3030 2825 23 Rep/Lean Rep20 19 18 Tea Party 17 15 Not Tea Party15 12 13 111050 Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul
    13. 13. Candidate Preference: Conservative v. Moderate/Liberal (Pew: Feb 8-12)40 3635 3430 2525 2020 17 1615 14 111050 Conservative Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Moderate/Liberal
    14. 14. Support for Romney: Certainty Among Groups (Pew Research Center April 4-18, 2012)100 94 95 88 90 89 90 83 84 82 82 80 77 70 66 65 60 50 40 30 20 18 17 12 12 10 8 6 0 Support Romney Certain Support Not Certain
    15. 15. Presidential Vote by Party (Pew April 4-15)100 92 909080706050 48 4240302010 6 7 0 Democrat Republican Independent Obama Romney
    16. 16. Romney Obama Repeal Bush tax cuts incomes aboveTaxes Maintain Bush tax rates $250K Eliminate tax on interest, dividends, and capital Buffett Rule: 30% minimum for $1 gains for AGI less $200K million Reduce corporate income tax rate Eliminate Tax Breaks for Oil, Gas, and from 35% to 25 percent CoalSpending and Reduce spending from 24 to 18- 2.1 trillion in new gross revenuesDebt 20% GDP through 2022 Roll back domestic discretionary spending to 2008 levels $360 billion in health care reductions Medicare: Supports Paul Ryan’s $160 billion in other mandatory premium support (55 under) reductions Social security: means tests benefits and raise the retire age $350 billion jobs package Tax Reform: no specifics $370 billion in tax reductions $270 billion new spending – mostly Reversal of defense cuts education and infrastructure
    17. 17. Who Are You?The GOP Successor/ Businessman The Likable Incumbent
    18. 18. Public Opinion of President Obama (Pew Research Center, Jan 11-16, 2012)9080 78 75 7170 61 6160 5250 44403020100 Job Approval Strong leader Cares about Trustworthy Warm and Stands up to Good People Like Friendly Beliefs Communicator Me
    19. 19. Candidate Choice by Most Important Issue (Pew April 4-15)60 5750 48 47 48 47 46 4440 383020100 Economy Jobs Deficit Taxes Obama Romney
    20. 20. Vote for Obama Net % Difference Key Groups: 2008-2012 (2008 exit poll v. Pew 2012 survey)50 4040 34 3630 28 2220 13 13 10 9 810 6 1 0-10 -6 -6 2008 2012
    21. 21. Battleground States• Link to http://www.270towin.com/ The tan colored states are off for grabs, but the top 7 battlegrounds are: CO, NV, IA, OH, NH, FLA, and VA. (WI, colored blue, may emerge as a battleground)Tracking Poll on the race in VA:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/p resident/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama- 1774.html
    22. 22. Unemployment Rates in Key Battleground States (March 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics)14 121210 9 8.2 7.88 7.5 5.2 5.2 5.66420
    23. 23. 2012 Congressional ElectionsCurrent House: GOP 242 / Democrats 1932012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups Republican 172 49 214Current Senate: Democrats 53 / Republican 47 2012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups* Republicans46 8 (5D/3R) 46----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*FL (Nelson-D), ME (Open-R), MA (Brown-R), MO (McCaskill-D), MT (Tester-D), NV (Heller-R), VA (Open-D), WI (Open-D)Source: Real Clear Politics
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