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Dale Morris, Senior Economist, Royal Dutch Embassy, The Dutch National Plan: The Delta Commission; National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, …


Dale Morris, Senior Economist, Royal Dutch Embassy, The Dutch National Plan: The Delta Commission; National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role." See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us

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  • Projected sea level rise (fig from IPCC)Increasing value/population/citysize at the coast = Increasing pressure/risk Photo damage Sandy. (National Geographic Summer 2013, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/folger-text)
  • Altenative: Building with Nature..Maybe an option for some coastal problems??
  • Dutch erosion problem.Shortage of natural sedimentStructural erosion at large parts of the dutch coast. (see fig city of Egmond, > 200 m erosion and large part village lost)Initially (1700’s) counteracted by structures (groynes), but this did not resolve the issue.. So from 1950’s onwards Nourishments (sand mined from beyond the -20 m depth, O (10 km) offshore)Initial projects success -> Governmental policy: Dynamic preservation of the 1990 coastline and primary method =nourishments
  • Change in nourishment strategyIncrease in sizeShift from direct protection (put it where you need it) on the beach towards more indirect protection (feeder function) on the shoreface (cross-shore distrribution) towards concentrated placement (both along and cross shore redistribution of sediment.)
  • New step in nourishment design: Mega nourishmentFollows from the new framework / paradigm shift discussed.Increasing coastal squeezeNew multidsicplinary evaluation of projects
  • The Solution… Sand EngineDesignSeveral alternativesThis shape chosen based on evaluation of all aspects (multi-disciplinary; ecology, recreation (e.g. island not as good for recreation) )Lagoon area on north side: hopefully Nursery for fish and shellfish, attracting birds and sea mammalsVolume of O (20x) the annual nourishment volume added on this coastal cell over the last decade, so peninsula will last hopefully 20 years
  • The Solution… Sand EngineDesignSeveral alternativesThis shape chosen based on evaluation of all aspects (multi-disciplinary; ecology, recreation (e.g. island not as good for recreation) )Lagoon area on north side: hopefully Nursery for fish and shellfish, attracting birds and sea mammalsVolume of O (20x) the annual nourishment volume added on this coastal cell over the last decade, so peninsula will last hopefully 20 years
  • Predictions evolution of the peninsula made prior to the project.Long term Delft 3D simulations
  • the nourishment starts to ‘feed’ the coastline. In other words, nature will start to ‘work’!
  • After these predictions the project went further.. And was constructedConstructed Beginning 2011March – July (Only 4 months!)Immediate response in morphology, currents
  • October 2011 3 months afterClosing of lagoon entrance
  • Jan 2012, 6 months after3 months later the lagoon entrance has pinched of and is connected by a long gully (with low tide)All images in this sequence with low tide
  • Juli 2012 1 year afterLagoon opening very dynamic, with meandering gullies. With closing, bypassing of gullies.Note also the boomerang shaped shore connected bar near the tip of the peninsula
  • Juli 20132 years afterLagoon entrance area futher evolved with meandering gullyNice smooth outline, sand is redistributing
  • This evolution also recorded in reg bathymetric surveys:Spit formation in more detail.Yellow/brown supratidal beach(dry)Blueish subtidalGreenish colors intratidal beach

Transcript

  • 1. How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany) Adaptation, Risk Mitigation and National Will Dale T Morris Senior Economist Royal Netherlands Embassy 1 1-2-2014
  • 2. Overview • The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves • Past Practices, Future Foundations • Multifunctional Infrastructure • The Future (How to Avoid Moving to Germany) • Collaborations in the US (time permitting) 1-2-2014
  • 3. The Netherlands, in Europe 3 1-2-2014
  • 4. The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding 4
  • 5. The Netherlands, at risk • • • H A R • • 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse) draining NW Europe 60% of land at/below sea level 17 million people, 9 million of which live below flood level GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which produced at/below sea-level) 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds of locks, sluices, pumping stations • • 100 km storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100 • water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity Deltacommissaris 5
  • 6. Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 7. Area potentially flooded at water level 5.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 8. Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 9. Area potentially flooded at water level 3.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 10. Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 11. Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 12. Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 13. Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 14. Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL Deltacommissaris
  • 15. 15 1-2-2014
  • 16. Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline 300  45 km 750  50 km Deltacommissaris 16
  • 17. Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts •Shorten coastline / strong spine •Navigation open, working delta •40 yr buildout • Infra takes time • Small projects first • Redesigned to mitigate substantial enviro/eco impacts in estuary Deltacommissaris
  • 18. 1958 flood risk/safety standards established “Never Again” mentality Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes) Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences • Slow-moving winter storms vs fastmoving tropical storms • Max storm windspeeds different • Rainfall manageable • Small- to- mid-sized rivers 1/10,000 = 1/500? 18
  • 19. We‟re safe! 1-2-2014 Deltacommissaris 19
  • 20. Subsidence Mining Gas + salt Geological Peat oxidation
  • 21. Intricate water supply / drainage: summer and winter Summer Winter Deltacommissaris
  • 22. The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured More/intense rainfall More /extreme storms? Spatial developments Sealevel rise (20 cm--> 60-85 cm/100y) 22 Increased erosion Salt intrusion Subsidence 10 cm/100yr Increased river discharge + 10% Decreased river discharge - 60%
  • 23. Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009) (floor resistance to flood accomodation) Multi-layered approach: 3. Disaster management (Katrina effect) 2. Smart land-use planning Room for the River Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra 1. Robust Protection Deltacommissaris
  • 24. 3 Depoldering, the plan Bottleneck Gorinchem river Merwede To the sea river Meuse
  • 25. Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres) • Goals: • Impacts: • Lower water level +/- 30 cm @ Gorinchem Improve spatial quality of area Restore coherence of environment Enable current residents to maintain residence, if desired Maintenance of farming occupation (either within polder or elsewhere) • Overflow area will flood 1-5 x year Nearby areas 1 x in 25 years Fort Steurgart remains protected Most residences will now be “outside the dikes”, on raised mounds Flood levels no higher than 1 meter in residences New park / recreation / tourism opportunities Remains accessible to all users Surprise! Reduce flood risk at Dordrecht (90 cm) • • • • • • • • •
  • 26. 28 1-2-2014
  • 27. 3 waterdynamic
  • 28. 3 waterdynamic
  • 29. 3 waterdynamic
  • 30. 3 waterdynamic
  • 31. 3 waterdynamic
  • 32. 3 waterdynamic
  • 33. Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever Extremesituation Situationhigh water situation Current with regular water flooding Proposed situation
  • 34. Waal River / Nijmegen Project • River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to 450 m width Options: • Ag / undeveloped land available to north • Northern river bank land targeted for development • Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure 37 1-2-2014
  • 35. Bottleneck
  • 36. 2 1
  • 37. Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities 40 1-2-2014
  • 38. Before / After (impression) 42 1-2-2014
  • 39. Experience the river
  • 40. Stages 2000 fright 2002 2004 fight 2006 2008 2010 2012 acquiescence building trust 2014 pride Nijmegen takes lead the bad news first scenario’s salomons judgement public involvement definite plan start realization
  • 41. Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?) 45 1-2-2014
  • 42. URBAN FLOODPLAIN
  • 43. UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
  • 44. Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment) Deltacommissaris 50
  • 45. Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales
  • 46. Deltacommissaris
  • 47. Katwijk
  • 48. Rising seas • Increasing sea level • Increasing population and economic value in coastal zones world wide Photo: Stephen Wilkes IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept 2013 Deltacommissaris
  • 49. Building with Nature
  • 50. Building with Nature? let nature do part of the work ... while creating new new eco-opportunities young dune formation young dune formation Deltacommissaris
  • 51. Building with Nature Deltacommissaris
  • 52. Dutch Context, coastal erosion Shortage of natural sediment Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed Solution: Nourishments City of Egmond Deltacommissaris
  • 53. Development of nourishment strategy Increase in volume Change in design Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr • Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !! Deltacommissaris
  • 54. Tendency towards larger-scale nourishments Extra functions nourishments (nature, surfing)? Deltacommissaris
  • 55. The Sand Engine! Objectives: 1. Extra Safety 2. Nature area / „Quality of living‟ 3. Innovation „Hook‟ alternative 70 M Euro. 21 M m3 of sand Deltacommissaris
  • 56. The Sand Engine • enhanced safety against flooding • first: wave attenuator; later: wider dune buffer • cheaper per m3 compared to traditional nourishments • longer period between nourishments • more time for beach / nearshore ecosystem to recover • recreation potential • swimming, surfing, beach recreation • wider dune area • increased freshwater reserve Deltacommissaris
  • 57. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast Initial design Deltacommissaris
  • 58. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=5 year Deltacommissaris
  • 59. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=10 year Deltacommissaris
  • 60. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=20 year Deltacommissaris
  • 61. Constructed peninsula Deltacommissaris
  • 62. Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths Deltacommissaris
  • 63. Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths Deltacommissaris
  • 64. Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr Deltacommissaris
  • 65. Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs Deltacommissaris
  • 66. Spit and channel formation near lagoon Deltacommissaris
  • 67. 2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired) Working together with water: a living land builds for its future 76 1-2-2014
  • 68. Delta Commission, 2008: The threat is not acute, but measures to improve flood risk management and fresh water supply should be prepared urgently! Deltacommissaris
  • 69. The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany) Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff) Cost-benefit analysis for every project 2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges Tipping points approach 2014: Delta Decisions No-regret measures 2015 – 2020: Develop projects Adaptive management 2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation 78 Delta Programme Commissioner 2/1/2014
  • 70. Tipping Points 79 1-2-2014
  • 71. Dutch – American Collaborations • • • • • • • • • Post-Katrina Louisiana Mississippi River Floods (St Louis) Los Angeles River SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage) Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta) Galveston (Ike Dike) SLR Norfolk SLR Miami Sandy 80 1-2-2014
  • 72. New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System Deltacommissaris 1-2-2014
  • 73. PILOT PROJECT: Hollygrove Greater New Orleans Water Management
  • 74. PILOT PROJECT: Mirabeau Greater New Orleans Water Management
  • 75. ORLEANS OPPORTUNITIES Greater New Orleans Water Management
  • 76. Fluvial Zone Type 01: Agricultural Land Use & Pooled River The Challenges Agriculture: Ecological: Navigation: Levees: Development:
  • 77. Group Analysis
  • 78. Mayor Villaraigosa and The Dutch 87 2/1/2014
  • 79. Super-Storm Sandy They said: “We need Dutch barriers!” We said: “Wait a minute…” Rebuild by Design 88 2/1/2014