8KatherineGreig__NICHI_BusinessSummit

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Presentation at the National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure, Business Summit, May 7, 2014; New York Academy of Sciences.

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8KatherineGreig__NICHI_BusinessSummit

  1. 1. CONFIDENTIAL   1   NICHI   May  7,  2014  
  2. 2. CONFIDENTIAL   2   Agenda   Risks  of  Climate  Change   PlaNYC:  A  Stronger,  More  Resilient  New  York  
  3. 3. CONFIDENTIAL   3   By  the  2050s:   4oF  to  6oF  increase  in  average  temperature     4%  to  11%  increase  in  average  annual  precipitation   Sea  levels  likely  to  rise  1-­‐2  feet;  maybe  2.5  feet   The  Risks  of  Climate  Change   NYC  already  faces  a  range  of  risks  from  extreme  weather  and  climate  change,  and   those  risks  grow  into  the  2020s,  2050s,  and  beyond.   By  the  2050s:       Even  today:   100-­‐year  floodplain  expanded  51%;  2.3  ft.  average  increase  in   100-­‐year  flood  elevations;  will  increase  with  further  sea  level  rise;   now  encompasses  68,000  structures         Sea  levels  likely  to  rise  2-­‐4  feet;  maybe  6  feet  by  the  end  of  the  century    
  4. 4. CONFIDENTIAL   4   Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   are  a  regulatory  product  used  to  define   current  flood  risks  for  insurance  purposes  and  establish  building  code  standards.     Key  functions:     Define  current  flood  risk   (coastal  and  riverine)     Determine  flood  insurance   requirements     Inform  building  code   standards       were  issued  in  1983  and  never   significantly  updated.    
  5. 5. CONFIDENTIAL   5   FEMA  1983  Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps  (FIRMs)   FEMA  1983  FIRMs  100-­‐year  Floodplain   Source: FEMA Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   flooding.   100-­‐year  Floodplain*   1983   FIRMs   Residents   218,000   Jobs   214,000   Buildings   36,000   1-­‐4  Family     26,000   Floor  Area   (Sq  Ft.)   377M    
  6. 6. CONFIDENTIAL   6   FEMA  1983  FIRMs  100-­‐year  Floodplain   Sandy  Inundation  Area  (outside  the  100-­‐year  Floodplain)   Source: FEMA (MOTF 11/6 Hindcast surge extent) Damage  outside  1983  100-­‐year   floodplain:     >  1/3  of  red-­‐  and  yellow-­‐ tagged  buildings   ~  1/2  of  impacted  residential   units   >  1/2  of  impacted  buildings   Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   Sandy  demonstrated  that  New  York  was  more  vulnerable  than  previously  thought.   FEMA  1983  FIRMs  vs.  Sandy  Inundation  Area  
  7. 7. CONFIDENTIAL   7   Source:  FEMA   100-­‐year  Floodplain*   1983   FIRMs   2013   PFIRMs   Change   (%)   Residents   218,000   398,000   82%   Jobs   214,000   271,000   27%   Buildings   36,000   68,000   89%   1-­‐4  Family     26,000   53,000   104%   Floor  Area   (Sq  Ft.)   377M     534M   42%   FEMA  2013  Preliminary  FIRMs  100-­‐year  Floodplain     FEMA  1983  FIRMs  100-­‐year  Floodplain     *  Numbers  are  rounded  for  clarity   Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   The  most  recent  maps,  called  Preliminary  FIRMs,  were  released  in  December  2013  and   show  a  floodplain  that  is  51%  larger  than  previously.   FEMA  1983  FIRMs  vs.  Preliminary  FIRMs  
  8. 8. CONFIDENTIAL   8   Source:  FEMA   FEMA  2013  Preliminary  FIRMs  100-­‐year  Floodplain     Projected  2020s  100-­‐year  Floodplain   Projected  2050s  100-­‐year  Floodplain   Source: FEMA; CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities *  Numbers  are  rounded  for  clarity   Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   even  further  by   the  2020s  and  into  the  2050s.   Projected  floodplain  for  the  2020s  and  2050s   100-­‐year  Floodplain*   2013   PFIRMs   2050s   Projected   Change   (%)   Residents   398,000   801,000   82%   Jobs   271,000   430,000   27%   Buildings   68,000   114,000   89%   1-­‐4  Family     53,000   84,000   104%   Floor  Area   (Sq  Ft.)   534M   855M   42%  
  9. 9. CONFIDENTIAL   9   Historic Battery Tide Chart Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   These  sea  level  rise  projections  are  in  addition  to  the  1  ft.  of  sea  level  rise  seen  in  NYC   since  1900   Source:  Data  are  from  the  Permanent  Service  for  Mean  Sea  Level  (PSMSL)  
  10. 10. CONFIDENTIAL   10   Change  in  BFE  from  1983  FIRMs  to   2013  Preliminary  FIRM   Mean  elevation   increase  (feet) Borough Brooklyn 2.5 Bronx -­‐0.1 Manhattan 1.5 Queens 2.4 Staten  Island 3.1 Citywide 2.3   Properties  built  to  code  between  1983  and  2014  will  likely  no  longer  meet  elevation   requirements  and  premiums  will  increase  again.   Source:  RAND  Table  4.6   Flood  Insurance  Rate  Maps   Preliminary  FIRMs  also  show  flood  elevations  increasing  1-­‐4  feet  across  the  city.  
  11. 11. CONFIDENTIAL   11   Likelihood of Damage (%) (Return Period, 50 = 1/50 years) Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s   Based  on  conservative   assumptions:   Likelihood  of  a  $19B   storm  (like  Sandy)  will   grow  17%  by  the  2020s   and  40%  by  the  2050s   Likely  loss  of  1/70-­‐year   storm  (like  Sandy)  will   grow  to  $35B  by  the   2020s  and  $90B  by  the   2050s  (in  current  dollars)   ~$90B ~$35B ~$19B 1/50 1/60 1/70 Risks  of  Climate  Change   Working  with  Swiss  Re,  the  City  quantified  the  potential  monetary  impacts  resulting   from  an  increased  frequency  in  damaging  storms  as  a  result  of  climate  change.  
  12. 12. CONFIDENTIAL   12   Agenda   Risks  of  Climate  Change   PlaNYC:  A  Stronger,  More  Resilient  New  York  
  13. 13. CONFIDENTIAL   13   A  Stronger,  More  Resilient  New  York   -­‐layered   approach  that  is  ambitious,  achievable,  and  based  on  the  best  available  science.     257  initiatives  to  reduce  the  risk  of  extreme   weather  and  climate  change.         Includes  funding,  and  an  implementation   schedule,  and  can  be  achieved  over  the  next  ten   years.    
  14. 14. CONFIDENTIAL   14   A  Stronger,  More  Resilient  New  York   And,  while  this  is  necessarily  a  long-­‐term  plan,  the  City  has  already  taken  steps,  with  many   partners,  to  advance  many  of  its  key  initiatives,  including  these  highlights:   Strengthening  Coastal   Defenses   Upgrading  Buildings   Protecting  Critical   Infrastructure  and  Services   Making  Neighborhoods  Safer  and   More  Vibrant   21 43
  15. 15. CONFIDENTIAL   15   20.7 11.9 8.8 2.4 6.4 Unmet Need Existing Sources Total Uses Remaining Gap Expected Sources Last  Updated:  4/9/2014     Funding   City  has  a  current  expected  funding  gap  of  approximately  $6.4  billion.   The  City  is  awaiting   allocation  of  State  HMGP   funds,  3rd  CDBG  tranche,   and  investments  by  NY   Rising,  among  others.   Significant  elements  of  the  gap:   Coastal  Protection       $1.8  B   Building  Upgrades       $1.1  B   Infrastructure                            $1.4  B  
  16. 16. CONFIDENTIAL   16   nyc.gov/resiliency  

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