Prospective and retrospective; Resilience in a broader sense: both robustness, and ability to “bounce back”
Current Policy Guidance
Evolution of preparedness post 9/11 in 60 seconds
HSPD 5 / HSPD 8 standardized (ICS) inter-governmental National Response Plan / Later National Response Framework..
Focus has been on “response” – so we have a little more data / study on that front (although not as much as you’d think…)
Focus of my efforts (so I’ll begin there, briefly, before coming to the focus of today’s summit)
In today’s “built” environment, even if you are agnostic to “climate change” science, these facts deserve your attention.
Left: Orange Beach, Alabama (some of the 650+ miles of oiled beach)
Right: Taste of Chicago. “Perception is Reality” Inter-dependencies: Tourism, Commercial (and Recreational) Fishing, Offshore Drilling (Energy), Catering, Transportation
Conventional wisdom is all disasters are local. Experience shows that, increasingly, this is no longer the case.
Studying Response Policy = Learning to Better Play the Hand We are Dealt. Power of today’s focus: Learning to deal ourselves a better hand!
Problem with Response: Crisis-Driven Policy Improvements. (Sandy is a “Teaching Moment” / Policy Window) BUT, need to ensure we are not “Fighting the Last War.”
We need to continue those efforts. But, simultaneously, we need to do more. That’s the point of the shift in disaster response policy we have seen….
PPD-8; broadened the scope of preparation to the 5 missions areas, and broadened the target audience to the “whole community” of actors.
Of the triple threat, which threat can we most affect? Thus, the focus of the balance of my comments..
What are we trying to accomplish?
A shallower negative slope at A - “capability” to absorb / graceful (intelligent) degradation (engineering term)
Steeper positive slope at C – “capability” to reconstitute
Local, regional, and national competitiveness will increasingly be defined by the level of resilience that communities and countries have to withstand, nimbly respond, and rapidly recover from shocks and disruptive events.
The Triple Threat
(to Homeland and National Security)
Russ Bowman, JD
Center for Resilience Studies
Mission: To play a leadership role in
building societal resilience by learning
from disasters and teaching and advancing
the lessons learned.
The ability to
– prepare for and
– adapt to changing conditions
and the ability to
– withstand and
– recover rapidly from disruptions (“all hazards”).
President Policy Directive (PDD) 21
“Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience,” February 12, 2013
(that you already know intuitively)
• Increasing Frequency & Complexity
of Large-Scale Events
• Complex Interdependencies
& Cascading Systems Failures
Albert EttingerTyrone Turner, National Geographic
Super Storm Sandy
AP Layston Badham, Morristowngreen.com
John O'Boyle, The Star-Ledger
Key Lessons “Learned”
• The first responders are always local; citizens are
indispensible strategic assets; but….
• Large-scale disasters impact regional systems
and, therefore, require enhanced
capability/capacity to undertake all preparedness
“missions” at the regional level.
• Resilience requires better understanding of
interdependencies and cascading effects.
Resilience-Centric Approach to
• ID critical functions
• Map or model
(1) components & operations, (2) interdependencies,
(3) geographic boundaries & (4) governance
• Evaluate vulnerability & consequences
• Distinguish between essential & full function
Identify and adopt resilience design features, processes,
and protocols that mitigate the risk of disruption, and
speed response / recovery when mitigation measures fail.
D = DisruptiontoSystem
R = Capabilitytoattenuateor mitigateeffect
priorto or attimeofevent
A = Capabilitytoabsorbanddegrade
B = Bottom out; ThresholdLevel
BT = Lengthoftimeatbottom
C = Capabilitytoreconstitutebackto initiallevel
T1 T2 T3
Source: J. Kahan, et. Al., Risk and Resilience: Exploring the Relationship, Homeland Security Studies
and Analysis Institute, Nov 20, 2010 & Mary Ellen Hynes, “Extreme Loading of Physical
Infrastructure” presentation at the 4th DHS University Network Summit, March 11, 2010.