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Earthquake Forecasting System
Earthquake Forecasting System
Earthquake Forecasting System
Earthquake Forecasting System
Earthquake Forecasting System
Earthquake Forecasting System
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Earthquake Forecasting System

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  • 1. TRL 2 Technology Concept POC Gerald Temple, PE gerald.temple@nasa.gov mobile: (510) 304-7243 Friedemann Freund, PhDfriedemann.t.freund@nasa.gov mobile: (650) 279-8478
  • 2. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Principle Concepts• EQFS: world’s first earthquake forecasting algorithm using NASA’s System Engineering approach.• EQFS combines historical EQ fault information with multi-source real time data from satellites and ground observations.• EQFS uses computer modeling and testability analysis to simulate an EQ as a system with many interactive subsystems: • Input • Output • Feedback • Precursory functionality.• EQFS uses a probability quantification analysis for simplistic computation: • Less chance for error • Easy comprehension • Easy communication • Quick and easy updating and modification.• EQFS finds probability of an EQ of a given magnitude range within a given time window for a given geographical area.
  • 3. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS)Generic System Failure Probability Diagram to develop the TEAMS Earthquake ForecastingTestability Model
  • 4. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS)Top Level Functional Flow Diagram of an Unstable Nonlinear Geo-System
  • 5. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Detailed Level Functional Flow Diagram
  • 6. Architecture for a new approach to earthquake forecasting. Will save countless lives and billions of dollars throughout the world.Magnitude 6.3 earthquake rocks Christchurch, NZ, on Feb. 22, 2011 at 12.51 pm local time

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