The Role of Coal in 2050 By  Steve Goldthorpe (on the occasion of his 100 th  birthday) To the Civic Responsibilities Clas...
Historical Perspective <ul><li>1970s Oil Shock  </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coal liquefaction R & D </li></ul></ul></ul><ul>...
 
Oil production in NZ <ul><li>1980-2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maui oil and gas field bonanza </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1985-19...
Liquid transport fuel demand <ul><li>Personal transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
Electricity <ul><li>95% renewable after 2025 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, Waves, Solar </li></ul></ul><u...
Consequences <ul><li>Adaptation to frequent severe storms </li></ul><ul><li>Individual Coastal communities decided strateg...
Apology <ul><li>Our baby-boomer generation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understood the adverse effects of our unsustainable civil...
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The role of coal in 2050

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Steve Goldthorpe's presentation from the NERI Winter Lights Thought Leadership Forum held on 16th June 2011 in Dunedin, New Zealand.

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The role of coal in 2050

  1. 1. The Role of Coal in 2050 By Steve Goldthorpe (on the occasion of his 100 th birthday) To the Civic Responsibilities Class of Bream Bay College
  2. 2. Historical Perspective <ul><li>1970s Oil Shock </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coal liquefaction R & D </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>1990s Climate Change – FCCC </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>CCS R & D </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>2015 Oil Crisis </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coal liquefaction started in NZ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>2025 Climate Crisis </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptation </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 4. Oil production in NZ <ul><li>1980-2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maui oil and gas field bonanza </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1985-1995 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Petrol production from natural gas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2005- 2015 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pohokura, Tui & Maari oil production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2025 onwards </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Small finds and gradual oil production decline </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production of biodiesel from crops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coal liquefaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>due to inability to import sufficient oil to meet demand </li></ul></ul>
  4. 5. Liquid transport fuel demand <ul><li>Personal transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rural lifestyle sustained </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Partial transition to electric cars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net effect no change in demand </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Freight transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Closure of rural rail in 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improvement in trucking logistics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net effect no change in demand </li></ul></ul>
  5. 6. Electricity <ul><li>95% renewable after 2025 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, Waves, Solar </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increased demand from electric vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed generation and smart grids to provide security of supply </li></ul><ul><li>Gas turbines for short term back-up </li></ul><ul><li>Coal firing at Huntly in dry years </li></ul>
  6. 7. Consequences <ul><li>Adaptation to frequent severe storms </li></ul><ul><li>Individual Coastal communities decided strategy of either </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Managed retreat from low-lying coastal land , or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Building coastal defences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reduction in biodiversity </li></ul>
  7. 8. Apology <ul><li>Our baby-boomer generation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understood the adverse effects of our unsustainable civilisation on the global ecology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understood what actions were needed to leave Planet Earth in good condition for future generations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>BUT, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>we failed to get our self-serving habits under control </li></ul></ul>
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