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World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective

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Rob Whitney's presentation from the NERI Winter Lights Thought Leadership Forum held on 16th June 2011 in Dunedin, New Zealand.

Rob Whitney's presentation from the NERI Winter Lights Thought Leadership Forum held on 16th June 2011 in Dunedin, New Zealand.


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  • 1. World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective
    1
  • 2. Introduction
    • History of WEC Scenarios
    • 3. WEC Goals The Three ‘A’s
    • 4. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)
    • 5. IEA Blue Map Scenario
    • 6. How to get to 450ppm (2010)
    • 7. WC Energy Scenarios 2050
    • 8. Key Drivers
    • 9. China, India and Africa
    • 10. New Technologies
    • 11. New Zealand, the lucky country for Energy Resources
    • 12. CRL Energy Technology Package
    • 13. Conclusions
  • WEC Scenarios heritage
    The World Energy Council has been involved with energy futures for more than two decades. WEC’s first comprehensive study on energy, with a long term vision, combining both global and regional perspectives, was the groundbreaking “Energy for Tomorrow’s World” (1993). Since then, WEC has been consistently producing scenario-based studies. The most recent WEC Scenarios study (2007) with its main focus on policy.
    Energy for Tomorrow’s
    World
    The Realities, the Real
    Options and the Agenda
    For Achievement
    Energy Policy Scenarios: Deciding the Future (2007)
    Energy for Tomorrow’s World (1993)
    Global Energy Perspectives (1998)
  • 14. WEC Millennium Goals (3 A’s)
    ACCESSIBILITY:access to affordable modern energy for all people
    AVAILABILITY: reliable and secure energy supply
    ACCEPTABILITY: protect and preserve the local and global environment
  • 15. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)
    Bottom up semi-quantitative “group analysis” Scenarios based on 5 regional studies and 7 specialist groups.
    GOAL to understand possible energy futures to 2050 identifying the role that policy actions could play to help or hinder the achievement of the WEC 3As and hence energy, economic, environmental and social sustainability
    Modelling used to provided a consistency check on the Scenarios.
    67 MC Countries 398 individual participants
  • 16. Highgovernment engagement
    HG-LC
    Energy Nationalism
    Scenario
    HG-HC
    Energy Globalism
    Scenario
    LG-LC
    Laissez-faire
    Scenario
    LG-HC
    Market Enterprise
    Scenario
    Lowgovernment engagement
    High
    integration/
    co-operation
    Lowintegration/
    co-operation
    Policy Scenarios
    Elephant
    Lion
    Leopard
    Giraffe
  • 17. Accessibility
    Low
    Moderate
    Good
    Leopard
    Elephant
    Giraffe
    Lion
    Asia
    Africa
    Europe
    North America
    Latin America
  • 18. Availability
    Low
    Moderate
    Good
    Leopard
    Elephant
    Giraffe
    Lion
    Asia
    Africa
    Europe
    North America
    Latin America
  • 19. Acceptability
    Low
    Moderate
    Good
    Leopard
    Elephant
    Giraffe
    Lion
    Asia
    Africa
    Europe
    North America
    Latin America
  • 20. Key Messages
    • Globalenergy supplies will have to double before 2050
    • 21. The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.
    • 22. Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases
    • 23. Public and the private sectors need to work together
    • 24. High energy prices will drive efficiency and attract capital
  • Arenas for Action: Business and Government
    • Increase in RDD&D, especially on accessibility and acceptability initiatives.
    • 25. Demand-side mobilisation.
    • 26. Transport transformation with emphasis on acceptability.
    • 27. Risk management and fiscal consistency.
    • 28. Protection and preservation of property rights (both physical and intellectual).
    • 29. Equitable movement of resources (goods, services, know-how, skills, capital).
  • IEA Energy Technology Perspectives
  • 30. Tanaka
  • 31. New WEC Energy Scenarios Project
    • Will be bottom-up, harnessing the knowledge embedded within WEC network of member committees
    • 32. Global, qualitative and descriptive picture of key issues and driving forces in the energy landscape
    • 33. Provide regional insights for public discussion
    • 34. Open sourceenergy models transparent assumptions
    • 35. Early Deliverables will include papers on the impact of Fukishima and MENA
    • 36. Mobility
    Traditional Approach – Top-down
    • Many recent external in-depth studies of the sustainability of energy systems
    • 37. Most provide a strong top-down perspective from experts
    • 38. There is a focus on macro-economic and global or regional energy aspects.
    WEC EPS 2050 (2007) was already different
    • Expressing the realisation, that it is the decision makers that influence, plan, and manage regional and local energy systems on a daily basis.
    • 39. The EPS 2050 report in 2007 captured and collated their priorities and opinions, from the bottom up, in each of the five regions of the World Energy Council.
  • Messages for Asia
    Energy use (kilo tons of oil equivalent)1
    1World Bank Statistics
  • 40. Energy Drivers
    • Itis expected that around 50% of the population growth between 2010 and 2050) will come from Asia (30% India, 10% China) and most of the remaining from Africa. What a burden would this have on demand for mobility and electricity?
    • 41. As Asia’s economic growth continues at high levels and the as GDP per capita gap with the OECD closes (China closing from 20% in 2005 to 60% of the OECD-NA in 2050), how much pressure would this have on energy demand?
    • 42. In China by 2050, with only 11% increase in population, travel demand is projected to increase 12-fold and travel energy demand 7-fold. This is mainly due to higher personal vehicle penetration as GDP increases. The same applies to a certain extent to India.
    • At least 1.5 billion people have no electricity and another 2 billion lack adequate access
    • 43. India
    • 44. 457million under 15 year olds (compare this with China’s 344 million)
    • 45. 400 million with no electricity
    • 46. 600 million cook with wood or dung
    • 47. 900 million have no refrigeration
    • 48. China
    • 49. Will get old before it gets rich
    • 50. Will drive technology solutions
    • 51. Then there is Africa
    • 52. Africa is not short of energy!
    Energy Poverty China India and Africa
  • 53. 18
    China becomes leading user of energy
    Published: June 8 2011 18:20 Financial Times
    China overtook the US as the world’s largest consumer of energy last year, during which global consumption growth was at its highest rate since 1973, according to the BP statistical review of world energy…….
    ……China became the largest wind-power generator, overtaking the US and accounting for about 48 per cent of all new capacity.
    Frank Clemente Professor of Social Science and Energy Policy
    Penn State University from Clean Coal Technology 2011
  • 54. 19
    New Zealand Energy Resources
    NZ has 10 times more coal per capita than the average for the rest of the world. 9 billion tonnereserve
    Woody Biomass Resources50% of transport fuel needs by 2050
    70% renewable electricity Government aim to achieve 90%
    Wind energy resource extensive Located in “Roaring Forties” Long coastline double advantage = predominately westerly winds and sea breezes
    Over 500 MW of installed wind capacity and over 1,000 MW consented
  • 55. 20
    A Technology Package Utilizing Coal, Biomass and Intermittent Renewable Energy
    Co-gasification of biomass with coal
    Achieve economies of scale
    Increase efficiency of biomass gasification
    Reduce tar production
    Integrating electrolysis
    Energy storage balancing intermittent renewables
    Improve gas stream
    Reduce water-gas shift costs
    Key issues
    Accessing cheap intermittent renewable electricity
    Reducing electrolyser capital costs and increasing efficiency
    Carbon Content Implications
    Reduced carbon footprint of coal projects
    With CSS either lower cost of zero emissions or negative emission
  • 56. 21
    tar removal system
    heat exchanger
    cyclone
    Bypass line
    lock hopper feed
    venturi scrubber
    gasifier1000oC
    existing systems
    flare
    LPG pre-heater
    - counter flow caustic wash
    - WGS reactor
    - H2 separation membrane systems
    gas pre-heater
    H2
    electrolyser
    steam
    air
    N2
    O2
    Schematic of New Technology Package
    Fluidized Bed O2 Blown Gasifier
    Biomass capability (50%)
    Modular design 50kw unit
    Ambient pressure system
    Syngas quality > 20% H2
    O2 and H2 from electrolyser stack
  • 57. 22
    Syngas Routes
  • 58. Conclusions
    Global energy supplies will have to double before 2050
    The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.
    Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases
    New Zealand is a lucky country as far as energy resources are concerned.
    CRL Energy IRL Technology package combines strengths and reduces weakness of coal, bioenergy and intermittent renewable electricity.
    23