Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective<br />1<br />
Introduction<br /><ul><li>History of WEC Scenarios
WEC Goals The Three ‘A’s
WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)
IEA Blue Map Scenario
How to get to 450ppm (2010)
WC Energy Scenarios 2050
Key Drivers
China, India and Africa
New Technologies
New Zealand, the lucky country for Energy Resources
CRL Energy Technology Package
Conclusions</li></li></ul><li>WEC Scenarios heritage<br />The World Energy Council has been involved with energy futures f...
WEC Millennium Goals (3 A’s)<br />ACCESSIBILITY:access to affordable modern energy for all people<br />AVAILABILITY: relia...
WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)<br />Bottom up semi-quantitative “group analysis” Scenarios based on 5 regional st...
Highgovernment engagement<br />HG-LC<br />Energy Nationalism <br />Scenario<br />HG-HC<br />Energy Globalism<br />Scenario...
Accessibility<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe    <br />Lion   <br />Asia<br />Af...
Availability<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe    <br />Lion   <br />Asia<br />Afr...
Acceptability<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe    <br />Lion   <br />Asia<br />Af...
Key Messages<br /><ul><li>Globalenergy supplies will have to double before 2050
The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.
Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases
Public and the private sectors need to work together
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective

630

Published on

Rob Whitney's presentation from the NERI Winter Lights Thought Leadership Forum held on 16th June 2011 in Dunedin, New Zealand.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
630
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
27
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective"

  1. 1. World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective<br />1<br />
  2. 2. Introduction<br /><ul><li>History of WEC Scenarios
  3. 3. WEC Goals The Three ‘A’s
  4. 4. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)
  5. 5. IEA Blue Map Scenario
  6. 6. How to get to 450ppm (2010)
  7. 7. WC Energy Scenarios 2050
  8. 8. Key Drivers
  9. 9. China, India and Africa
  10. 10. New Technologies
  11. 11. New Zealand, the lucky country for Energy Resources
  12. 12. CRL Energy Technology Package
  13. 13. Conclusions</li></li></ul><li>WEC Scenarios heritage<br />The World Energy Council has been involved with energy futures for more than two decades. WEC’s first comprehensive study on energy, with a long term vision, combining both global and regional perspectives, was the groundbreaking “Energy for Tomorrow’s World” (1993). Since then, WEC has been consistently producing scenario-based studies. The most recent WEC Scenarios study (2007) with its main focus on policy. <br />Energy for Tomorrow’s <br />World<br />The Realities, the Real <br />Options and the Agenda<br />For Achievement<br />Energy Policy Scenarios: Deciding the Future (2007)<br />Energy for Tomorrow’s World (1993)<br />Global Energy Perspectives (1998)<br />
  14. 14. WEC Millennium Goals (3 A’s)<br />ACCESSIBILITY:access to affordable modern energy for all people<br />AVAILABILITY: reliable and secure energy supply<br />ACCEPTABILITY: protect and preserve the local and global environment<br />
  15. 15. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)<br />Bottom up semi-quantitative “group analysis” Scenarios based on 5 regional studies and 7 specialist groups. <br />GOAL to understand possible energy futures to 2050 identifying the role that policy actions could play to help or hinder the achievement of the WEC 3As and hence energy, economic, environmental and social sustainability<br />Modelling used to provided a consistency check on the Scenarios.<br />67 MC Countries 398 individual participants<br />
  16. 16. Highgovernment engagement<br />HG-LC<br />Energy Nationalism <br />Scenario<br />HG-HC<br />Energy Globalism<br />Scenario<br />LG-LC<br />Laissez-faire<br />Scenario<br />LG-HC<br />Market Enterprise <br />Scenario<br />Lowgovernment engagement<br />High<br />integration/<br />co-operation<br />Lowintegration/<br />co-operation<br />Policy Scenarios<br />Elephant<br />Lion<br />Leopard<br />Giraffe<br />
  17. 17. Accessibility<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe <br />Lion <br />Asia<br />Africa<br />Europe<br />North America<br />Latin America<br />
  18. 18. Availability<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe <br />Lion <br />Asia<br />Africa<br />Europe<br />North America<br />Latin America<br />
  19. 19. Acceptability<br />Low<br />Moderate<br />Good<br />Leopard <br />Elephant<br />Giraffe <br />Lion <br />Asia<br />Africa<br />Europe<br />North America<br />Latin America<br />
  20. 20. Key Messages<br /><ul><li>Globalenergy supplies will have to double before 2050
  21. 21. The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.
  22. 22. Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases
  23. 23. Public and the private sectors need to work together
  24. 24. High energy prices will drive efficiency and attract capital</li></li></ul><li>Arenas for Action: Business and Government<br /><ul><li>Increase in RDD&D, especially on accessibility and acceptability initiatives.
  25. 25. Demand-side mobilisation.
  26. 26. Transport transformation with emphasis on acceptability.
  27. 27. Risk management and fiscal consistency.
  28. 28. Protection and preservation of property rights (both physical and intellectual).
  29. 29. Equitable movement of resources (goods, services, know-how, skills, capital).</li></li></ul><li>IEA Energy Technology Perspectives<br />
  30. 30. Tanaka<br />
  31. 31. New WEC Energy Scenarios Project<br /><ul><li>Will be bottom-up, harnessing the knowledge embedded within WEC network of member committees
  32. 32. Global, qualitative and descriptive picture of key issues and driving forces in the energy landscape
  33. 33. Provide regional insights for public discussion
  34. 34. Open sourceenergy models transparent assumptions
  35. 35. Early Deliverables will include papers on the impact of Fukishima and MENA
  36. 36. Mobility </li></ul>Traditional Approach – Top-down<br /><ul><li>Many recent external in-depth studies of the sustainability of energy systems
  37. 37. Most provide a strong top-down perspective from experts
  38. 38. There is a focus on macro-economic and global or regional energy aspects. </li></ul>WEC EPS 2050 (2007) was already different<br /><ul><li>Expressing the realisation, that it is the decision makers that influence, plan, and manage regional and local energy systems on a daily basis.
  39. 39. The EPS 2050 report in 2007 captured and collated their priorities and opinions, from the bottom up, in each of the five regions of the World Energy Council. </li></li></ul><li>Messages for Asia<br />Energy use (kilo tons of oil equivalent)1<br />1World Bank Statistics<br />
  40. 40. Energy Drivers<br /><ul><li>Itis expected that around 50% of the population growth between 2010 and 2050) will come from Asia (30% India, 10% China) and most of the remaining from Africa. What a burden would this have on demand for mobility and electricity?
  41. 41. As Asia’s economic growth continues at high levels and the as GDP per capita gap with the OECD closes (China closing from 20% in 2005 to 60% of the OECD-NA in 2050), how much pressure would this have on energy demand?
  42. 42. In China by 2050, with only 11% increase in population, travel demand is projected to increase 12-fold and travel energy demand 7-fold. This is mainly due to higher personal vehicle penetration as GDP increases. The same applies to a certain extent to India.</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>At least 1.5 billion people have no electricity and another 2 billion lack adequate access
  43. 43. India
  44. 44. 457million under 15 year olds (compare this with China’s 344 million)
  45. 45. 400 million with no electricity
  46. 46. 600 million cook with wood or dung
  47. 47. 900 million have no refrigeration
  48. 48. China
  49. 49. Will get old before it gets rich
  50. 50. Will drive technology solutions
  51. 51. Then there is Africa
  52. 52. Africa is not short of energy!</li></ul> Energy Poverty China India and Africa<br />
  53. 53. 18<br />China becomes leading user of energy<br />Published: June 8 2011 18:20 Financial Times<br />China overtook the US as the world’s largest consumer of energy last year, during which global consumption growth was at its highest rate since 1973, according to the BP statistical review of world energy…….<br />……China became the largest wind-power generator, overtaking the US and accounting for about 48 per cent of all new capacity.<br />Frank Clemente Professor of Social Science and Energy Policy<br />Penn State University from Clean Coal Technology 2011 <br />
  54. 54. 19<br />New Zealand Energy Resources <br />NZ has 10 times more coal per capita than the average for the rest of the world. 9 billion tonnereserve<br />Woody Biomass Resources50% of transport fuel needs by 2050<br />70% renewable electricity Government aim to achieve 90%<br />Wind energy resource extensive Located in “Roaring Forties” Long coastline double advantage = predominately westerly winds and sea breezes<br />Over 500 MW of installed wind capacity and over 1,000 MW consented<br />
  55. 55. 20<br />A Technology Package Utilizing Coal, Biomass and Intermittent Renewable Energy<br />Co-gasification of biomass with coal<br />Achieve economies of scale <br />Increase efficiency of biomass gasification<br />Reduce tar production<br />Integrating electrolysis <br />Energy storage balancing intermittent renewables<br />Improve gas stream<br />Reduce water-gas shift costs<br />Key issues <br />Accessing cheap intermittent renewable electricity<br />Reducing electrolyser capital costs and increasing efficiency <br />Carbon Content Implications<br />Reduced carbon footprint of coal projects<br />With CSS either lower cost of zero emissions or negative emission <br />
  56. 56. 21<br />tar removal system<br />heat exchanger<br />cyclone<br />Bypass line<br />lock hopper feed<br />venturi scrubber<br />gasifier1000oC<br />existing systems<br />flare<br />LPG pre-heater<br />- counter flow caustic wash<br />- WGS reactor<br />- H2 separation membrane systems<br />gas pre-heater<br />H2<br />electrolyser<br />steam<br />air<br />N2<br />O2<br />Schematic of New Technology Package<br />Fluidized Bed O2 Blown Gasifier <br />Biomass capability (50%)<br />Modular design 50kw unit <br />Ambient pressure system<br />Syngas quality > 20% H2<br />O2 and H2 from electrolyser stack<br />
  57. 57. 22<br />Syngas Routes<br />
  58. 58. Conclusions<br />Global energy supplies will have to double before 2050<br />The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.<br />Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases<br />New Zealand is a lucky country as far as energy resources are concerned.<br />CRL Energy IRL Technology package combines strengths and reduces weakness of coal, bioenergy and intermittent renewable electricity.<br />23<br />
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×