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    Ncrcsc fort collins knutson Ncrcsc fort collins knutson Presentation Transcript

    • National Drought Mitigation CenterOverview of Drought Vulnerability Researchand Planning in the North Central RegionDr. Cody L. KnutsonNational Drought Mitigation CenterSchool of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-Lincolncknutson1@unl.edu“End-to-End”: research-applications-operations-outreach-servicecontinuum working with users…
    • NDMC Drought and Impact Monitoring
    • NDMC Planning and Social Science Program AreaVulnerability Assessment and PlanningFarmers/ranchers - Communities - Watersheds - States• Questions: sustainable farmer and holistic rancher’s definitions ofsustainability; effects of 2002-2004 drought; response/adaptation strategiesimplemented; use of weather and climate information; barriers to droughtrisk reduction and use of weather/climate information• Methods: mail survey and 48 face-to-face interviewsKnutson, C.L., T. Haigh, M. Hayes, M. Widlham, J. Nothwehr, and M. Kleinschmidt (2011) FarmerPerceptions of Sustainable Agriculture Practices and Drought Risk Reduction in Nebraska, USA,Journal of Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 26(3): 255-266Sustainable Adaptations to Drought and ClimateVariability in Agricultural Production Systems AcrossNebraska (2004-2006;UNL collaborators)
    • Drought Risk Management on the RanchGreat Plains focus (2006-2012)Ranchers; UNL/SDSU Extension; NRCSQuestions: effects of drought on ranch operations in the Great Plains,drought management strategies; drought plan and process, andrecommendationsMethods: 21 telephone interviews with rancher/advisors involved indrought planning; deliberate dialogue (workshop); case studies, andadvisor inputManaging Drought Risk on the Ranch website:http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspxHaigh, T., and C. Knutson, Role of Perceived Control and Planning in RanchDrought Preparedness, Great Plains Research, in pressKnutson, C. L., and T. Haigh, 2013. A Drought Planning Methodology forRanchers in the Great Plains, Rangelands. Vol. 35 (1), pp. 27-33.
    • Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Toolsfor Corn Producers and Advisors (2011-2016)Linda Stalker Prokopy, PhDU2U Project Director, Associate ProfessorPurdue University5
    • U2UTeamState climatologistsCrop modelersAgronomistsEconomistsSocial scientistsRCC staffNOAA staff
    • U.S. CORN BELT• Nearly one-third of global supply• Over $50B to US economy
    • CurrentWork• Model the impact of climate and farm management on cropproductivity and profits– Using past and future climate scenarios• Understand beliefs and concerns about climate change andwillingness to use climate information– Surveys and focus groups (also network analysis)Models and Data Stakeholder InputDecisionSupport Tools
    • CropModelingandDataAnalysis• Develop an ensemble of crop models on a 4-km grid, Midwest– DSSAT, Hybrid-Maize, ISAM– Range of agronomic outcomes for various climate scenarios (past & future)• Impact of climate and management on productivity and profits– Agroclimatic trends analysis (1900-2011)– Regional ENSO analysis– NASS ‘field work days’ climatology – trends, patterns, future scenarios– Effects of crop mix, climate, etc. on capital investment decisions (case studies)Objective 1: What are the contributions of anomalous weather tocrop variability and implications for future management options?
    • Producer Survey• CS-CAP partnership• Mail survey of +19,000 farmers• 22 HUC6 watersheds, 60% of UScorn production• Data joined to NASS Ag CensusAdvisor Survey• Web-based survey of 8,000+ advisors– All advisors in pilot states, Extension in 12 states• Crop consultants, Extension, bankers/lawyers, agro-business, state andfederal, crop associations, etc.ClimateNeedsAssessment Surveys
    • SurveyQuestion Topics• Type and timing of farm management strategies• Influence and use of weather/climate information• Climate change concerns and beliefs• Risk management strategies, roles, responsibilities• Influential information sourcesArbuckle, J., L. Prokopy, T. Haigh, J. Hobs, T. Knoot, C. Knutson, A. Loy, A. Mase, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Tyndall,M. Widhalm. 2013. Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation amongfarmers in the Midwestern United States. Climatic Change Letters. Vol. 117 (4), pp. 943-950.Prokopy, L., T. Haigh, A. Mase, J. Angel, C. Hart, C. Knutson, M. Lemos, Y. Lo, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Perron, D.Todey, M. Widhalm. 2013. Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 5 (2): 162-167.
    • • Linking oceanic indices to multiple-year droughts and wet periods;effects on ag production and water systems• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (Maryland); U.S.Army Corp or Engineers; NOAA Climate Services; State of MontanaQuestions: impacts of multiple-year drought and wet periods on agproduction and water systems; potential use of seasonal to multiple-yearclimate outlooks for management activities (based on oceanic indices)Methods: face to face interviews; 7 deliberate dialogue (workshops);case studies (Kansas City; Great Falls, and Lincoln), basin-wide survey ofcommunity water systems, and expert advisory panelMehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, C.L. Knutson, J. R. Olsen, N.A. Wall, T.K. Bernadt, M.J. Hayes, 2013: Decadal ClimateInformation Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study inthe Missouri River Basin. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5, 27-42.Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2012: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomenaon dryland corn and wheat yields in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 152, 109-124.Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2011: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomenaon water yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47, 126-135.Decadal climate variability impacts,management, and information needs in theMissouri River Basin (2006-current)
    • Specific Tasks:(1) develop retrospective drought and wet period scenariosusing statistical modeling of DCV indices and theirassociations with hydro-meteorological variables in theBasin(2) conduct sectoral impact evaluations through use of theHydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) andthe Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) driven bythe retrospective scenarios(3) Gather impact information on recent drought and wetperiods and explore potential for developing future decadalclimate outlooks with stakeholders during three regionalworkshops in Kansas City, MO; Helena, MT; and Lincoln, NEPotential Applications of Decadal Climate Predictionsin Water and Agriculture Sectors in the Missouri River BasinCody L. Knutson1, Vikram M. Mehta2, Norman J. Rosenberg2, J. Rolf Olsen3, Nicole A. Wall1, Tonya K. Bernadt1, and Michael J. Hayes11 National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska2 Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Maryland3 U. S. Army Corps of Engineers – Institute for Water Resources, VirginiaIntroductionAt least three decadal climatevariability (DCV) phenomena -- thePacific Decadal Oscillation, thetropical Atlantic sea-surfacetemperature (SST) gradientoscillation, and the west Pacific WarmPool SST variability -- significantlyimpact the hydro-meteorology of theMissouri River Basin.From 2008-2010, the team assessedthe effects of these long-term seasurface temperature phenomena onwater supplies and crop yields in theBasin, along with the perceptions ofstakeholders about their DCVinformation needs and the potentialapplications of DCV outlooks in thebasin’s water and agriculture sectors.Financial assistance for the study wasprovided by the Sectoral ApplicationsResearch Program, Climate ProgramOffice , U.S. Department ofCommerce, National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration.Dr. Cody L. KnutsonNDMC, SNR, UNL402-472-6718/ cknutson1@unl.eduGathering input from 90 representatives from agriculture, water and electric power utility,transportation, natural resources and government sectorsModeling Results:Association of positive and negative phases of DCV phenomena withstreamflow in three sub-basins in the northern Missouri River Basin.EPIC simulation of DCV impacton spring wheat yields in the MRBHUMUS-SWAT simulation of DCVimpact on water yield in the basinPotential Applications of DCV Outlooks:Agriculture: Guidance for future crop selection and cattle stocking rates,appropriate land-use, irrigation development, pesticide and fertilizerapplications, and insurance coverageMunicipal water: Guidance for water infrastructure investments, wateruses and pricing, land use planning, and flood protectionRiver Management: Guidance for reservoir operations, bargetransportation viability, recreation and fisheries managementEnergy (hydropower, coal, and nuclear): Guidance for infrastructuredevelopment, fuel purchases, marketing, and effluent requirementsSummary of Findings:• Substantial associations between hydro-meteorological anomaliesand PDO, TAG, and WPWP DCV patterns in the basin• Need for climate and societal impacts information about decadaldroughts and wet periods• Users beginning to think how they would use decadal climate andimpacts information, even the current phases of major DCV phenomena• Many potential barriers to producing and using decadal climate outlooks,but users eager to work with climate scientists• Missouri River Basin a very important and ‘fertile’ region to sow seedsof climate services, but sustained efforts required to build credibilityof climate science and scientistsContact Information:
    • Predictability and Prediction of Decadal Climate and its SocietalImpacts in the Missouri River Basin: A Regional Study IntegratingEarth System, Hydrologic, Agricultural, Economic and Land UseModels• 2011-2014• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Texas A&M UniversitySpecific Objectives:(1) assess simulations and hindcasts of two decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena (PDOand TAG) and their effects on the Basins hydro-meteorology by global EaSMs (GEaSMs)(2) downscale simulated and hindcast data from relatively coarse resolution GEaSMs torelatively high resolution as input to water and crop yield models(3) quantify decadal predictability of water and crop yields in the Basin, using downscaledGEaSM data and HM observations-based DCV scenarios in HUMUS-SWAT model(4) quantify value of adaptive actions given decadal predictions of water and crop yields interms of potential economic and other impacts, using FASOM and RIVERSIM models(5) develop an experimental decadal climate and impacts prediction system for the Basin usinghydrologic, crop, and economic models; and downscaled data from GEaSMs, along withDCV scenarios based on observed HM data; and assess their effectiveness via interactionswith stakeholders and policymakers.
    • Participatory modeling – Stakeholder advisory team/watershed stakeholders
    • Missouri sub-basin “Golden Triangle”(north-central Montana)Proposed: selectionof 1 or 2 watershedsfor detailed analysis todevelop crediblescenarios of futureDCV events for use incontingency planning(if-then scenarios)
    • Status of State Drought Planning in the U.S.
    • URL: http://www.drought.unl.edu/Planning/PlanningProcesses.aspxNDMC 10-Step Drought Planning Process• Created in 1990• Revised in 2005• Increased emphasison drought mitigation
    • • Monitoring and early warning system– assess, communicate, and trigger action– foundation of a drought mitigation plan• Vulnerability assessment– who and what is at risk and why?• Mitigation and response actions– actions/programs that reduce risk and impactsand enhance recoveryMost processes and plans in the past focused onmonitoring and responseEssential Drought Plan Components
    • Ex) Nebraska Municipal Water Supply, Health,and Energy SubcommitteeDrought Impact Ranking1. Municipal water supply shortages2. Rural water district mechanical problems3. Private well water quantity and quality problems4. Excessive irrigation pumping/aquifer conflicts5. Mental anguish6. Industrial users drawing down aquifers7. Health problems from blowing dust8. Temperature extremes/increased electricalusage
    • Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan2010-2011Prepared as Drought Annex to:Colorado Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan and Emergency Operations PlanVulnerability Assessment
    • Inspiration:Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. 2009. Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: Animpact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. Natural HazardsReview 10(1):11-18.
    • - Instream flows and hatcheries - highest impact scores are countieswith most junior water rights
    • Concluding thoughts…• Our assessments are largely project-based; few basin-wide• Several studies qualitative / some quantitative (or both)• Progression toward more quantitative/integrated assessments• Integration can be challenging• Integrating models and perspectives• obtaining data; identifying meaingful vulnerability metrics• Some local resistance to climate change funding andadaptation (e.g. grant proposals and farmer/advisor survey)
    • Cody Knutsoncknutson1@unl.eduNational Drought Mitigation CenterSchool of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-LincolnContact Information:
    • Risk Assessment CommitteeTask 1: Conduct a Drought Impact AssessmentTask 2: Rank the Most Pressing ImpactsTask 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment- understand where and why impacts occur?Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options- actions to implement before, during, and after droughtTask 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options- recommended actions based on criteria agreed toHawaii Water Supply Sector Vulnerability Colorado Agricultural Vulnerability
    • Takle et al., in prep.Climate-based decisioncalendar for corn
    • Drought RiskAtlas (DRA): • Coming Soon!• Set to launch inspring 2012• ~3000 stationsarchived• 139 clusters/regionsdeveloped andanalyzed• SPI, SPEI, PDSI, sc-PDSI and Decilesthrough 2010• Weekly gridded mapsfor all parametersback to early 1900s• Created to answerquestions aboutthe characteristicsof drought:• Frequency/returnperiods• Duration• Trends• Intensity• Spatial extent