The New Prospective Parliamentary Candidates Martin Todd


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The new Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

Who are they, where are they, how do you get to them and will they care?

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The New Prospective Parliamentary Candidates Martin Todd

  1. 1. The new Prospective Parliamentary Candidates<br />Who are they, where are they, how do you get to them and will they care?<br />
  2. 2. Candidate profiles:<br /><ul><li>At every election, there are more than 1,500 parliamentary candidates not currently MPs
  3. 3. At every election, most of them lose
  4. 4. Big difference this time – more of them are likely to get elected than in any election since 1945.
  5. 5. At least 129 seats don’t have incumbent MPs running in them this time.
  6. 6. And even amongst MPs that do run, a pretty big chunk of the MPs may get defeated.</li></li></ul><li>Candidate profiles: some things have not changed<br /><ul><li>Some aspects – no change
  7. 7. Mostly male
  8. 8. Mostly white
  9. 9. Mostly middle-class
  10. 10. Mostly run before
  11. 11. 12½ years in politics
  12. 12. Average age in swing seats is 43
  13. 13. Younger than the people we’re replacing
  14. 14. But not younger than new MPs of the past
  15. 15. In my own constituency, the Lib Dems took the bold step of replacing one 45 year old man with another 45 year old man
  16. 16. Some things haven’t changed at all
  17. 17. Andrew – former President of NUS
  18. 18. I’m – former President of the Cambridge Union</li></li></ul><li>Candidate profiles<br /><ul><li>Something else not changed:
  19. 19. We love to play with the latest technology
  20. 20. CD:
  21. 21. Re-recordings of Gladstone on a wax cylinder
  22. 22. Asquith on 78 rpm record
  23. 23. Lloyd George on the radio
  24. 24. If any of them around
  25. 25. Playing with Twitter and email and Facebook
  26. 26. Obama showed there’s a difference between playing with technology and making it work for you</li></li></ul><li>Candidate profiles: some aspects changed<br /><ul><li>More female – still a minority – upwards trend
  27. 27. Over half the new candidates in currently held Lib Dem held seats are women
  28. 28. Possibly a temporary change
  29. 29. More likely to come from a business background
  30. 30. Less likely to come from a voluntary or public sector background
  31. 31. Doesn’t mean not interested.
  32. 32. On a personal level:
  33. 33. Volunteer with several environmental and homelessness groups
  34. 34. On a business level:
  35. 35. CSR + Cause Marketing
  36. 36. Vodafone/National Autistic Society partnership</li></li></ul><li>Candidate profiles:Political changes<br />Political context:<br />It’s been a while since we’ve faced the kind of economic and political crisis we currently face<br />And we’ve never faced an environmental one on the same scale.<br />Personal level<br />Very uncertain.<br />Lots of marginal seats where two or more PPCs could plausibly win<br />
  37. 37. Consequences<br /><ul><li>Obsessed with the local (temporarily or permanently)
  38. 38. 62% of LD candidates are councillors
  39. 39. 45% of Lab/Tory candidates
  40. 40. Extremely busy – campaigning extremely hard
  41. 41. If an election is close
  42. 42. Local voters matter
  43. 43. No-one else does
  44. 44. We’re all in campaign mode</li></li></ul><li>If you want to influence us indirectly<br />This is one where I have no idea how the other parties work...<br /><ul><li>Lobby the people who write the policies and the manifestoes
  45. 45. For the Liberal Democrats – not just MPs and policy researchers:
  46. 46. Policy Working Groups
  47. 47. Federal Policy Committee
  48. 48. Conference delegates
  49. 49. Don’t underestimate the power of party bloggers
  50. 50. Lib Dem Voice</li></li></ul><li>If you want to influence us directly<br /><ul><li>Get local people to contact us
  51. 51. Give us the chance to meet groups of local people
  52. 52. Not least because we’re always very interested in people active in the community
  53. 53. Source of information – important networkers
  54. 54. Contact us with local facts
  55. 55. Offer us PR opportunities that will work with local people and local media
  56. 56. Don’t ask for a lot of time</li></li></ul><li>If you want to influence us directly<br />Brochures with cover letters – in the pile<br />unless they come from a local voter<br />Meetings with local people<br />Emails<br />Twitter<br />Appeals to busy people with short attention spans<br />Facebook<br />
  57. 57. Will we care?<br /><ul><li>I don’t know
  58. 58. Will depend on the party and the person
  59. 59. Either – about personal interests
  60. 60. Homelessness
  61. 61. Technology
  62. 62. Environment
  63. 63. Economy
  64. 64. Autism
  65. 65. Or – about local voters</li></li></ul><li>Background/Attachments<br />
  66. 66. Questions to answer<br /><ul><li>How many MPs are standing down in 2010? How does this compare to previous elections?
  67. 67. What are the characteristics of the new generation of PPCs?
  68. 68. What does having younger, more diverse and more technologically savvy MPs mean for campaigners?
  69. 69. What makes them different from MPs in previous years?
  70. 70. What experiences/events shape their political outlook and that of their peers?
  71. 71. What have PPCs learnt from the expenses scandal?
  72. 72. How do they view the voluntary and community sector?
  73. 73. What are the best tactics for engaging with PPCs pre-election and post-election?</li></li></ul><li>MPs standing down<br />
  74. 74. Industry & Parliament Trust Survey of 225 seats most likely to change hands<br /><ul><li>Less than half the PPCs surveyed (48%) can demonstrate Business Management or Financial Services (BMFS) experience
  75. 75. PPCs standing in the next General Election have more BMFS experience than current MPs (as surveyed in April 2008)
  76. 76. There are twice as many PPCs with 15 years or more BMFS experience (14%) in comparison with the MPs surveyed in April 2008 (7%)
  77. 77. Conservative PPCs have considerably more BMFS experience than their counterparts in Labour or the Liberal Democrats
  78. 78. In the seats surveyed, a PPC is twice as likely to be male rather than female
  79. 79. In comparison to the current House of Commons, there are a higher proportion of female PPCs standing for each of the three main political parties
  80. 80. The average age of a PPC standing in the next General Election is 43
  81. 81. 55% of PPCs have previously stood for election in a general election
  82. 82. Just over a third (35%) of PPCs are current elected representatives
  83. 83. An average PPC has been actively involved in politics for 12.6 years</li></li></ul><li>New Local Government Network<br /><ul><li>Relatively small numbers of prospective candidates have experience in frontline public services (Labour 14.3%; Conservatives 8.6%; Lib Dems 13.9%)
  84. 84. Reasonable numbers of candidates have some form of business background (Conservatives 46%; Lib Dems 30%; Labour 18.2%)
  85. 85. Very high numbers of candidate have local government experience (Lib Dems 61.9% are or have been councillors; 44.8% Conservatives; 44.2% Labour)
  86. 86. A significant number of PPCs have experience working for a political party (15%), and working in Parliament (10%).</li>