2014 US Congressional CVB Map 
Updated: September 15, 2014
2014 US Congressional Districts -CVB 
Updated: September 15, 2014 
Strong DEMLean DEMCompetitiveLean REPStrong REP12 - Ope...
2014 NC Senate CVB Map 
Updated: September 15, 2014
2014 NC Senate Districts -CVB 
Updated: September 15, 2014 
Strong DEMLean DEMCompetitiveLean REPStrong REP28 - G. Robinso...
2014 NC House CVB Map 
Updated: September 15, 2014
2014 NC House Districts -CVB 
Updated: September 15, 2014 
Lean DEMCompetitiveLean REP29 - L. Hall47 - C. Graham 66 - K. G...
CVB Methodology 
TheNCFEFConventionalVotingBehavior(CVB)ratingisderivedusingactualelectionresultsfromeverystatewideracesin...
2014 NCFEF District CVB Analysis
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2014 NCFEF District CVB Analysis

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2014 NCFEF District CVB Analysis

  1. 1. 2014 US Congressional CVB Map Updated: September 15, 2014
  2. 2. 2014 US Congressional Districts -CVB Updated: September 15, 2014 Strong DEMLean DEMCompetitiveLean REPStrong REP12 - Open Seat7 - Open Seat9 - R. Pittenger1 - G. Butterfield8 - R. Hudson11 - M. Meadows4 - D. Price3 - W. Jones5 - V. Foxx13 - G. Holding10 - P. McHenry6 - Open Seat2 - R. Ellmers3 Districts0 Districts0 Districts 4 Districts6 DistrictsWinner - 1
  3. 3. 2014 NC Senate CVB Map Updated: September 15, 2014
  4. 4. 2014 NC Senate Districts -CVB Updated: September 15, 2014 Strong DEMLean DEMCompetitiveLean REPStrong REP28 - G. Robinson19 - Meredith25 - McLaurin 29 - J. Tillman40 - Open Seat*18 - Barefoot15 - Open Seat30 - Randleman38 - J. Ford1 - Cook9 - Open Seat33 - Bingham20 - F. McKissick8 - B. Rabon35 - T. Tucker14 - D. Blue17 - T. Barringer42 - A. Wells* 4 - Bryant10 - B. Jackson44 - D. Curtis21 - B. Clark12 - R. Rabin31 - J. Krawiec32 - E. Parmon27 - T. Wade34 - A. Brock3 - Jenkins11 - B. Newton43 - K. Harrington23 - V. Foushee39 - B. Rucho5 - D. Davis36 - F. Hartsell13 - Open Seat45 - D. Soucek22 - M. Woodard50 - J. Davis37 - J. Jackson46 - W. Daniel16 - J. Stein41 - J. Tarte49 - T. Van Duyn26 - P. Berger6 - H. Brown24 - R. Gunn7 - L. Pate47 - R. Hise48 - T. Apodaca2 - N. Sanderson16 Districts0 Districts3 Districts 9 Districts22 Districts12 - Wnners9 - Wnners
  5. 5. 2014 NC House CVB Map Updated: September 15, 2014
  6. 6. 2014 NC House Districts -CVB Updated: September 15, 2014 Lean DEMCompetitiveLean REP29 - L. Hall47 - C. Graham 66 - K. Goodman119 - J. Queen118 - M. Presnell4 - J. Dixon78 - A. McNeill106 - C. Cunnigham32 - N. Baskerville46 - K. Waddell2 - Open Seat6 - P. Tine91 - B. Holloway70 - P. Hurley102 - B. Carney30 - P. Luebke54 - R. Reives II22 - W. Brisson9 - B. Brown113 - C. Whitmire80 - R. Younts31 - M. Michaux5 - A. Mobley44 - R. Glazier92 - C. Jeter63 - S. Ross110 - K. Hastings73 - Open Seat* 99 - R. Moore115 - N. Ramsey93 - J. Jordan74 - D. Conrad85 - J. Dobson33 - R. Gill41 - T. Murry51 - M. Stone16 - C. Millis97 - J. Saine38 - Y. Holley45 - J. Szoka40 - M. Avila20 - R. Catlin79 - J. Howard107 - K. Alexander8 - S. Martin53 - D. Lewis15 - P. Shepard89 - M. Setzer60 - Open Seat*49 - Open Seat35 - C. Malone98 - Open Seat95 - R. Brawley58 - Open Seat*36 - N. Dollar109 - D. Bumgarner94 - J. Elmore56 - V. Insko65 - B. Jones19 - T. Davis Jr.68 - C. Horn24 - J. Butterfield116 - T. Moffitt61 - J. Faircloth87 - E. Starnes57 - P. Harrison1 - B. Steinburg59 - J. Hardister13 - P. McElraft71 - E. Terry111 - T. Moore69 - D. Arp101 - B. Earle104 - Open Seat76 - C. Ford48 - G. Pierce26 - L. Daughtry81 - R. Brown114 - S. Fisher25 - J. Collins67 - J. Burr42 - M. Lucas86 - H. Blackwell120 - R. West100 - T. Cotham75 - D. Lambeth96 - Open Seat27 - M. Wray55 - M. Brody108 - J. Torbett50 - G. Meyer37 - P. Stam90 - S. Stevens39 - D. Jackson103 - B. Brawley117 - C. McGrady12 - G. Graham14 - G. Cleveland84 - R. Turner11 - D. Hall88 - R. Bryan28 - J. Langdon34 - G. Martin82 - L. Pittman52 - J. Boles7 - B. Richardson64 - D. Riddell10 - J. Bell18 - S. Hamilton3 - M. Speciale83 - L. Johnson21 - L. Bell62 - J. Blust105 - J. Schaffer23 - Open Seat*17 - F. Iler72 - E. Hanes77 - Warren43 - E. Floyd112 - M. Hager4 Districts9 Districts 13 DistrictsStrong REP59 Districts27 - Winners31 - Winner35 DistrictsStrong DEM
  7. 7. CVB Methodology TheNCFEFConventionalVotingBehavior(CVB)ratingisderivedusingactualelectionresultsfromeverystatewideracesince2008inwhichcandidatesranonapartisanbasis.Electionresulttabulationsweremadeforeverylegislativedistrict(13Congressionaldistricts,and120Houseand50SenatedistrictsfortheNCGeneralAssembly)anddoneinawaytoensuresplitprecinctdatawasassignedtothecorrectdistrict. ItisimportanttonotethatNCFEF’sCVBratingisbasedonhistoricalvotingresults,andisintendedtoshowthedegreetowhichvotersinaparticulardistricthavefavoredeitherRepublicanorDemocraticcandidatesingeneralelectionsinthepast.Itisnotintendedtobeasingularpredictorofoutcomesin2014perse. Forpurposesofclarity,NCFEFusesfiveCVBdesignations: StrongRepublican/Democratrepresentsapartisanperformanceadvantageof6%ormore,meaningthedistrictusuallyfavorscandidatesofaparticularpoliticalparty. LeanRepublican/Democratrepresentsapartisanperformanceadvantageofmorethan3%butlessthan6%, meaningthedistrictmostlyfavorscandidatesofaparticularpoliticalparty. Competitiverepresentsapartisanperformanceadvantagethatvariesfrom3%forRepublicansto3%forDemocrats,meaningthedistrictmayswingbetweensupportforthetwopoliticalparties'candidates. Therearemanyotherfactorsthatplayaroleinelections,includingperceptionsamonglocalvotersofthecandidatesrunning,theextenttowhichcampaignsarewell-runandhavesufficientresourcestocommunicateeffectivelywithvoters,economicornationalpoliticalfactorsinfluencingvoterperceptionsandattitudeslocally,andtheextenttowhichothergroups–throughindependentexpenditureorothercampaignactivity–areoperatingwithinthedistrict,justtonameafew.

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