NASBLA Stakeholders Forum"Changing Face and Paceof Recreation & Recreational Boating" By Geoffrey Godbey Recreation, Park and Tourism Management Penn State University firstname.lastname@example.org
More PeopleThe US population will continue to increase, reaching 350million or more in the next 25 yearsThese people will live, disproportionately, within 100 miles ofthe shoreline of the East and West coasts.
More Diverse PeopleThe population will be more diverse by ethnic status,living arrangements, political and religious beliefs,andeconomic status.A higher percentage of non-white people will livewithin close proximity to the coastlines, Gulf of Mexicoand Great Lakes
Distribution of Diversity UnevenIn 1995, 74 percent of the Nations Hispanics resided in five States.California, with 9 million, had the largest share of the NationsHispanic population followed by Texas, New York, Florida, andIllinois.Californias Hispanic population will more than double over theprojection period (21 million and represents 36 percent ofthe total Hispanic population in 2025).
More Diverse HouseholdsThe relationships of those living in the same householdwill become more diverseFewer married couples with childrenMore blended familiesMore unrelated people living in a householdMore gay and lesbian familiesMore interracial households
Smaller HouseholdsAverage U.S. household has 2.6 people in it. Almost one-quarterof the households have only one person in them.Average American lives in almost 700 sq. feet of space per person,the highest it has ever been
Prolonged adolescencePeople are becoming “adults” at later ages--25--30 years old. Theyare financially independent later, marry later, and act like childrenlongerDeferred retirementThe move toward earlier retirement has been reversed. Manypeople lost their shirt in the recent market crash and scandals.Others now prefer to work, often retiring from one job buttaking another
A Revolution in Women’s RolesThere is cultural lag in Americans’ perception of theeducational attainment and achievements of girls and boys.While the feeling persists that girls are ignoredin public school, remain passive, have low self esteem, etc.,girls are far higher achievers in public schools than boys andthey are more likely to go to college. According to the U.S.Department of Education, girls get better grades in publicschools, are slightly more likely to enroll in higher level mathand science courses and outnumber boys in student government,honor societies, school newspapers and debating teams(Sommers, 2000).
Girls read more books than boys, outperformthem on tests for artistic and musical ability, and are morelikely to study abroad. Boys are more likely to be suspendedfrom school, held back, drop out, or be involved in crime,alcohol or drugs. Boys are more than three times more likelyto receive a diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.While girls are more likely to attempt suicide, boys are morelikely to succeed in killing themselves by a ratio of more thanfive to one.In 1996 there were 8.4 million women but only6.7 million men enrolled in college and theprojections are that by 2007, women willoutnumber men in college even moresubstantially—9.2 million women and 6.9million men (Sommers, 2000, p. 29).
The Increase in Galactic CitiesNucleated cities emerged in the nineteenthcentury where industrialization occurred.They had a well defined commercial area,known as downtown, Industry was lined upalong the railroad tracks and residential areaswere arrayed around the edges and segregatedalong lines of income, ethnicity and race.(Lewis, 1995).
These cities were replaced by emerging“galactic” cities, as the automobile became theprimary means of transport. Rather than think ofthis as urban sprawl, Lewis (1995) contends this isa new kind of city.
CharacteristicsInternal transportation system made up of interstate andlimited access highways.A considerable degree of internal commercial clustering,usually at the intersections of main arterial highways.An industrial clustering that is no longer based onmanufacturing but more on high tech and services orclean industry. Industrial parks.Residential areas that are highly consumptive of space.Single houses with lawns and garages.Galactic cities help ensure that travel by automobile dominates.
Increasing Transportation GridlockThere are now more cars and personal trucks thanPeople in the U.S.
The automobile will continue to prevail as thedominant transportation form for many reasons.It allows the greatest customization of travel schedules, it isthe most heavily subsidized form of travel by government,it provides privacy, it is more comfortable than mass transit,and it is the only means for negotiating the centerless galacticcities which have emerged as the dominant form ofurbanism in the U.S. While light rail will make some gains,the investment costs to develop magnetic levitation or otherhigh speed train systems is immense and start up time ismore than a decade at best.
Increasing Differentiation inEducation, Income,Knowledge and ValuesThe poor are getting poorer and the rich much richer.The percentage of people in the middle class has dropped rapidly.While one-quarter of the U.S. public now has a college degree,the “spread” of educational attainment is increasing.
The mass customizationof workChanges in technology have revolutionized work in waysthat are revolutionizing the rest of life,customizing every individual’s life in the process.
When the factory system standardized work in Europe andNorth America, which was done outside the home in bigugly buildings, public education followed suit. The factoryapproach to public education resulted in standardized buildings,standardized curricula, standardized textbooks, teacherqualifications, and standardized notions of the truth.Leisure became more standardized too, from bowlingalleys to shopping malls to TV shows, which werewatched by over half the households in a country.
Work is going through a revolution, changing the rest of life.The notion that a “job” is a fixed bundle of tasks is disappearing(Bridges, 1994). “Jobs” are moving targets, demandingcontinuous learning and change on the part of the worker.More people work part-time, work at home, have nodesignated place to work, or combine work with college,raising children, or retirement. Workers who work duringdaylight hours on weekdays may become the minority.The largest employer in the U.S. is Manpower Incorporated. Itis estimated almost 1/2 of U.S. workers may becomecontingent workers by 2005.
Small Parcels of Free TimeWhile Americans average 35-40 hours of free timea week, the majority of those hours come on weekdays insmall chunks of time--an hour here, and hour and a halfthere.
The Experience Economy"Life is not measured by the number of breaths wetake, but by the moments that take our breath away."While part of the new economy may be described asa “knowledge” economy, another increasinglyimportant part of the new economy is theoffering of memorable experiences.
When a person buys a service, he purchases a set of intangible activities carried out on his behalf. But when he buys an experience, he pays to spend time enjoying a series of memorable events that a company stages —as in a theatrical play—to engage him in a personal way. (Pine and Gilmore, 1999, p. 2)Such experiences are as distinct from services asservices are from products.
Experiences are not synonymous with entertainmentbut rather with engaging the guest.While many experiences are entertainment,experiences may also beeducational,escapist oresthetic in nature.As the experience economy grows, many managersof leisure and tourism sites will find that the issue willbe less of managing people and natural resourcesthan of managing “meaning.”
http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/trends See this website for further information about boating and demographic change Boating Trends & the Significance of Demographic Change by Gary T. Green, Ken Cordell, and Becky Stephens