Advanced Spatial Analysis of  Accident Risks in Recreational Boating 03/01/12 ; Page  Funded by a 2011 Boating Safety Gran...
03/01/12 ; Page  Intellectual Merit <ul><li>Two or more boaters same area – why is one involved in an accident and the oth...
03/01/12 ; Page  Broader Impact <ul><li>Contemporary boating accident research focuses on fatalities.  </li></ul><ul><ul><...
03/01/12 ; Page  Why Are We Conducting this Study? <ul><li>To determine the: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>effects of  environment...
03/01/12 ; Page  Recreational Boating Accident Research Framework
03/01/12 ; Page  Recreational Boating Accident Reflections  <ul><li>Recreational Boating Accidents are routinely attribute...
03/01/12 ; Page  On-Water: Boating Safety Stop Survey Trimble Nomad 800L (printer not shown)
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Research Site:  Tampa Bay, FL 103.3 sq. km. research area
03/01/12 ; Page  Research Site:  Sandusky Bay, OH 138.2 sq. km research area
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Satellite Imagery Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
03/01/12 ; Page  Analytical Methods
03/01/12 ; Page  Analytical Methods
03/01/12 ; Page  Data Collection <ul><li>Research operationalized through boating accident report data (USCG), hi-resoluti...
03/01/12 ; Page  Advanced data fusion techniques <ul><ul><li>on-water survey enables normalization of the 2011-12 on-water...
03/01/12 ; Page  Analytical Methods The primary problem is to relate the space-time array ( ijt ) to the factors represent...
03/01/12 ; Page  Table 1:  Project Timeline Advanced Spatial Analysis of Accident Risks in Recreational Boating Presented ...
03/01/12 ; Page  General Observations - Lessons Learned <ul><li>Participating officers need time to adapt to electronic da...
03/01/12 ; Page  General Observations - Lessons Learned <ul><li>The use of electronic data capture technologies was observ...
03/01/12 ; Page  Project Summary <ul><li>Questions </li></ul><ul><li>Will go into more detail on Friday during the ERAC me...
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Advanced Spatial Analysis of Accident Risks in Recreational Boating

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A brief overview of a study by Dr. Ernie Marshburn and underway in Florida and Ohio. This project, Reducing Recreational Boating Accidents through Advanced Risk Analysis, involves just one of many ways in which the accident reporting data your state collects and submits to the Coast Guard can be used to help reduce recreational boating accidents.

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  • Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space where characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated. Spatial dependency leads to the spatial autocorrelation such as temporal autocorrelation. Autocorrelation violates standard statistical techniques that assume independence among observations. Location effects also manifest as spatial heterogeneity (lack of uniformity), or the apparent variation in a process with respect to location in geographic space. Unless a space is uniform and boundless, every location will have some degree of uniqueness relative to other locations.
  • The perspective adopted in this research establishes system attribute space as a synthetic three dimensional domain (Fig. 1). This modified perspective allows recreational boating to be bracketed within a narrow frame of reference characterized as: loosely coupled (relatively independent components), easily managed by one or more operators (simple to control), and most importantly, linear in terms of component complexity. Furthermore, it allows system attribute levels to vary with changing environmental influences as examined in this study. For instance, rapidly changing weather conditions can reduce the effectiveness of boating systems (manageability) and harbor traffic congestion can increase system complexity (interactiveness) as well as system interdependency (coupling). Recognition of these contextual environmental effects provides conceptual as well as empirical focus for this research. The synthetic conceptual framework suggests that system similarity is directly related to the nature of the accident domain that characterizes them. It also suggests that certain factors may be manifested as latent (antecedent) conditions, e.g., operator training, boating regulations, cultural influences, and environmental variables. Latent conditions are important because they combine in unexpected ways with triggering mechanisms to produce multi-level interactive effects that influence the probability that recreational boating accidents will occur.
  • Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space where characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated. Spatial dependency leads to the spatial autocorrelation such as temporal autocorrelation. Autocorrelation violates standard statistical techniques that assume independence among observations. Location effects also manifest as spatial heterogeneity, or the apparent variation in a process with respect to location in geographic space. Unless a space is uniform and boundless, every location will have some degree of uniqueness relative to other locations.
  • Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space where characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated. Spatial dependency leads to the spatial autocorrelation such as temporal autocorrelation. Autocorrelation violates standard statistical techniques that assume independence among observations. Location effects also manifest as spatial heterogeneity, or the apparent variation in a process with respect to location in geographic space. Unless a space is uniform and boundless, every location will have some degree of uniqueness relative to other locations.
  • Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space where characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated. Spatial dependency leads to the spatial autocorrelation such as temporal autocorrelation. Autocorrelation violates standard statistical techniques that assume independence among observations. Location effects also manifest as spatial heterogeneity, or the apparent variation in a process with respect to location in geographic space. Unless a space is uniform and boundless, every location will have some degree of uniqueness relative to other locations.
  • Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space where characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated. Spatial dependency leads to the spatial autocorrelation such as temporal autocorrelation. Autocorrelation violates standard statistical techniques that assume independence among observations. Location effects also manifest as spatial heterogeneity, or the apparent variation in a process with respect to location in geographic space. Unless a space is uniform and boundless, every location will have some degree of uniqueness relative to other locations.
  • Advanced Spatial Analysis of Accident Risks in Recreational Boating

    1. 1. Advanced Spatial Analysis of Accident Risks in Recreational Boating 03/01/12 ; Page Funded by a 2011 Boating Safety Grant from the USCG, Boating Safety Division Collaborating Partners National Association of State Boating Law Administrators, United States Power Squadrons , Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, East Carolina University, Trimble, and GeoEye. Principal Investigators Ernest Marshburn, USPS and East Carolina University Richard Moore, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Rodger Norcross, Ohio Department of Natural Resources Tammy Terry, Ohio Department of Natural Resources
    2. 2. 03/01/12 ; Page Intellectual Merit <ul><li>Two or more boaters same area – why is one involved in an accident and the other is not? </li></ul><ul><li>Accident theory can be used to statistically explain the spatial and temporal qualities of recreational boating accidents. </li></ul><ul><li>Use advanced statistical techniques and GIS to research recreational boating accident data. </li></ul><ul><li>These techniques enable key variables to be modeled using advanced regression approaches. </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial Autocorrelation , Heterogeneity , and Multi-level Interactive Effects will be examined. </li></ul>
    3. 3. 03/01/12 ; Page Broader Impact <ul><li>Contemporary boating accident research focuses on fatalities. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A broader perspective concerning recreational boating risk has not yet been attained. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>boating accident models also suffer from the severest forms of specification error; left out variables . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Combined consideration of environmental , human , and technological factors is needed to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>fully investigate all significant variables influencing recreational boating accidents </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Explore interrelationships involving multi-level interactive effects. </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. 03/01/12 ; Page Why Are We Conducting this Study? <ul><li>To determine the: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>effects of environmental factors on recreational boating accidents and reveal any spatio-temporal patterns that emerge. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>environmental conditions w/in which human factors influence the spatio-temporal distribution of recreational boating accidents. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>environmental conditions w/in which technological factors influence the spatio-temporal distribution of recreational boating accidents. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>if discrete categories of temporal variation involving recreational boating accidents can be statistically captured, and if so, their effects. </li></ul></ul>Where and When do recreational boating accidents occur … and … Why do they occur in those locations?
    5. 5. 03/01/12 ; Page Recreational Boating Accident Research Framework
    6. 6. 03/01/12 ; Page Recreational Boating Accident Reflections <ul><li>Recreational Boating Accidents are routinely attributed to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>most frequently human factors, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>less frequently </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>technological factors, and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>rarely environmental factors. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>illustrate point with photo </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Research opportunity: exploring recreational boating accidents from an environmental (specifically spatial) perspective, using OWS data. </li></ul><ul><li>Need on-water survey (OWS) non-accident data to normalize BARD. </li></ul>OOPS …
    7. 7. 03/01/12 ; Page On-Water: Boating Safety Stop Survey Trimble Nomad 800L (printer not shown)
    8. 8. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
    9. 9. 03/01/12 ; Page Research Site: Tampa Bay, FL 103.3 sq. km. research area
    10. 10. 03/01/12 ; Page Research Site: Sandusky Bay, OH 138.2 sq. km research area
    11. 11. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
    12. 12. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
    13. 13. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
    14. 14. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Tampa Bay, Florida Research Site
    15. 15. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
    16. 16. 03/01/12 ; Page Satellite Imagery Sandusky Bay, Ohio Research Site
    17. 17. 03/01/12 ; Page Analytical Methods
    18. 18. 03/01/12 ; Page Analytical Methods
    19. 19. 03/01/12 ; Page Data Collection <ul><li>Research operationalized through boating accident report data (USCG), hi-resolution satellite imagery (GeoEye, Inc.), waterway characteristics, boat characteristics, boat operator demographics, and on-water survey data as illustrated in Table 1. </li></ul><ul><li>The on-water survey data is being collected in collaboration with Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) and Ohio Division of Natural Resources (ODNR) by law enforcement officers operating within the research site. </li></ul><ul><li>Will be looking to include other states as we move forward. </li></ul>
    20. 20. 03/01/12 ; Page Advanced data fusion techniques <ul><ul><li>on-water survey enables normalization of the 2011-12 on-water boating population. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>better representation of independent accident domain variables achieved. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0.5 to 0.8m resolution satellite imagery will provide sufficient optical clarity to ground truth key attributes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GIS data fusion techniques combined with federal, state, and commercial data will assure proper data synthesis and model development. </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. 03/01/12 ; Page Analytical Methods The primary problem is to relate the space-time array ( ijt ) to the factors representing the environmental, human, and technological dimensions. This function is represented as: where A represents the presence or absence of a recreational boating accident in cell (ij) at time (t). Fig. 5: Recreational Boat Accident Research Model
    22. 22. 03/01/12 ; Page Table 1: Project Timeline Advanced Spatial Analysis of Accident Risks in Recreational Boating Presented @ Spring NASBLA Workshop
    23. 23. 03/01/12 ; Page General Observations - Lessons Learned <ul><li>Participating officers need time to adapt to electronic data collection technology but that once implemented and applied as part of the patrol routine, the point and click method for collecting recreational boating data is effective and efficient. </li></ul><ul><li>Data completeness reinforcement and encouragement need to be inserted into supervisory briefings at regular intervals to ensure that data capture requirements are fully met. </li></ul><ul><li>Participating officers are more enthusiastic about and more likely to meet daily capture benchmarks (a minimum of 3 observations per day) using electronic data capture tools rather than paper-based tools. </li></ul><ul><li>It is important to involve all agency staff in the project, not just BLAs and data analysts, enabling better definition of problem areas, issues, and previously unrecognized project details. </li></ul><ul><li>The ODNR team reported that many of the technology issues have been eliminated as a result of project work during this quarter. </li></ul><ul><li>Any additional states that join this project should still be aware of the need for a local project “Coordinator” to provide daily project management and coordination for the participating officers. </li></ul>
    24. 24. 03/01/12 ; Page General Observations - Lessons Learned <ul><li>The use of electronic data capture technologies was observed to have the additional benefit of creating a safer direct boat operator contact (boating safety stop) for enforcement officers, e.g., officers can generally maintain eye contact with the boat operator without the awkwardness of being in a head-down mode to record observations on paper. </li></ul><ul><li>Sharing project details has helped excite other officers and in fact states about the nature of this project. It has also had the added benefit of promoting creative thinking by both NASBLA and state boating law enforcement groups about how they could employ this technology in ways that advance their missions. </li></ul><ul><li>It is noted that the use of technology requires continuous maintenance to ensure that it is current with respect to officer needs and routines. </li></ul><ul><li>The total number of recreational boat operator observations collected per day by officers, should be allowed for seasonal fluctuations in officer duties which may include enhanced focus on accident investigation and/or OUI contacts during the peak season, taking time away from their ability to collect survey data. </li></ul><ul><li>The potential for collecting warning and/or citation data electronically is recognized as a “value-added” program benefit. </li></ul>
    25. 25. 03/01/12 ; Page Project Summary <ul><li>Questions </li></ul><ul><li>Will go into more detail on Friday during the ERAC meeting </li></ul><ul><li>If you are interested in joining this project in the future, feel free to contact me at: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ernest G. Marshburn, Director Research Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Office of the Vice Chancellor, Research & Graduate Studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2200 South Charles Blvd., Greenville Center, Rm. 1504 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>East Carolina University </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenville NC 27858-4353 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Office: 252.328.9014 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cell: 252.714.5170 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fax: 252.328.2769 </li></ul></ul>
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