Richards.robert

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Richards.robert

  1. 1. Critical Chain Project Management:Motivation & OverviewRobert Richards, Ph.D.Project ManagerStottler Henke Associates, Inc.Hilbert RobinsonPresidentAfinitus Group LLC Used with Permission
  2. 2. Are You A Responsible Person?Scenario: You live in New England and it’s late Winter Time to airport varies from 45 minutes to 3 hours depending… Most times it takes a little over 65 minutes You are joining the President at 9:00 AM at the airportQuestions: How early should you leave? __________ Why?_____________________________ 2
  3. 3. Presentation OutlineBackground • Triple Constraints • Murphy’s Law • ComplexityProblem [What to Change] • Localized Risk Management - Task Level Insurance Policy - Student Syndrome - Parkinson’s Law - Multi-taskingSolution [What to Change to] • Governing Principle - Global Risk Management - Project Level Protection - Systems Perspective - Execution Control 3
  4. 4. BackgroundTriple Constraints [Binding Commitments] 1. Time [Minimize] 2. Capacity / Resource Budget [Minimize] 3. Content / Scope / Quality [Maximize] 4
  5. 5. BackgroundMurphy’s Law [Disruption Event] • Number of unknowns • Range of possibilities • Frequency of repetitionComplexity [Amplification factor] • Degree of integration required • Number of dimensions to be integrated • Speed of execution 5
  6. 6. Presentation OutlineBackground • Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift • Triple Constraints • Complexity • Murphy’s LawProblem [What to Change] • Localized Risk Management – Task Level Insurance Policy – Student Syndrome – Parkinson’s Law – Multi-taskingSolution [What to Change to] • Governing Principle - Global Risk Management – Project Level Protection – Systems Perspective – Execution Control 6
  7. 7. Problem: Localized RiskManagement Strategy1. Task level insurance policy See opening scenario – answers? And if it was a task in a project?? ** How safe is safe enough?**2. Student Syndrome The dog ate my homework3. Parkinsons Law Self-fulfilling prophecy [good estimating?]4. Multi-tasking [absence of priorities] Hero or villain? 7
  8. 8. Problem: Localized Risk ManagementOne Resource, Four Task, from Four Different Projects Multi-tasking causes delays to spread across all projects, adding as much as 20% to all projects 8
  9. 9. Presentation OutlineBackground • Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift • Triple Constraints • Complexity • Murphy’s LawProblem [What to Change] • Localized Risk Management – Task Level Insurance Policy – Student Syndrome – Parkinson’s LawSolution [What to Change to] • Global Risk Management – Project Level Protection – Systems Perspective – Execution Control 9
  10. 10. SolutionGoverning Principle Behind CCPM is: Aggregation of risk…Benefits: • Lower overall protection needed • Higher degree of “coverage” achieved • Leading to lower incidence of “failure” 10
  11. 11. Solution:Global Approach to Risk Management1. Planning 1. Project Level vs. Task Level Protection 2. Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects 1. Should load for multiple projects be considered? 2. Why? 3. How?2. Execution Control 1. Promote and encourage team culture 2. Controlled work queues 3. No multi-tasking work rules 4. No batch processing work rules 5. Task assignment prioritization 6. Management by Exception 11
  12. 12. Critical Chain Planning ProcessFrom Task to Project Protection 1. Traditional Plan 144 hours 2. Safety Excluded 72 hours 3. Resource Leveled 4. Critical Chain Marked 84 hours 12
  13. 13. Critical Chain Planning Process From Task to Project Protection 144 Hours 1. Traditional Plan 72 Hours 2. Safety Excluded3. Resource Leveled 84 Hours4. Critical Chain Marked in Yellow 13
  14. 14. Aggregation PrincipleThe Concept of Risk Pooling: Can someone explain why this works?Health Care Example: Larger pool = Lower cost . 14
  15. 15. Aggregation PrincipleInsurance is designed to work by spreading costs across a large numberof people. Premiums are based on the average costs for the people inan insured group. This risk-spreading function helps make insurancereasonably affordable for most people.http://www.insurance.wa.gov/legislative/factsheets/PoolingRiskReducingCost.asp 15
  16. 16. Critical Chain Planning Compared to 144 days traditional 132 hours PB = Project Buffer FB = Feeding BufferAggregation Principle [where did some of the safety go?]: 1. Pooled protection provides more coverage 2. Location is just as important as amount 3. Sizing Rule of Thumb  2/3rds to 1/3rd Buffer is half of preceding chain 16 16
  17. 17. Critical Chain Planning Schedule shown in Aurora 132 hours compared to 144 hours in traditional schedule Proj_Buf = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer 17 17
  18. 18. Critical Chain in Execution Schedule Before Execution Starts 132 hours “AS OF DATE” 132 hours1. T8 experienced a 5 day increase in scope or delay2. Results in a 2.5 day impact to the project buffer3. The rest was absorbed by the Critical Chain gap4. 35-32.5=2.5 7% Complete and 14% Buffer Consumed 18
  19. 19. Perspective on BuffersNot “rear view mirror watching”Predictive/Preventative/Leading IndicatorMechanism to Promote and encourage Team WorkCollaboration / Communication Incentive MechanismMeasuring device – Neutral, Normalized MetricsReal-time Risk MeterEncourages an holistic/goal oriented perspective 19
  20. 20. Critical Chain Priority Metric Project Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart 20
  21. 21. Critical Chain Priority Metric Project Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart 21
  22. 22. Multi-Project System Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects 1. Should load for multiple projects be considered jointly? – Obviously 2. Why? – Prevent System Overload/Multi-tasking 3. How? – By taking a Systems Perspective22
  23. 23. Creating a Multi-Project Schedule Finite Capacity Pipeline Due Dates Are DerivedIngredients:1. CC Plans [shorter]2. Strategic Pacing Mechanism3. Strict Priority Scheme4. Rate Limit Policy/Guidelines 23
  24. 24. Multi-Project Execution ControlPipeline Status Snap Shot 100 % Buffer Consumed In Execution, Buffer Status Drives Priority Decisions, not Project Importance 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | % Critical Chain 10 Completed 0 By Portfolio of Projects 24
  25. 25. The Upshot… Benefits 1. Operational Coherence – Stability 2. 20% Shorter Cycle-Times – Speed 3. On-time Performance – Reliability 4. More throughput – Growth Challenges: 1. Simple but not easy to grasp – too simple? 2. Requires a change in mindset 3. Takes 120 days for typical 100 person team 4. We don’t need that much improvement25
  26. 26. Questions ???Robert Richards Ph.D., Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Richards@StottlerHenke.comHilbert Robinson President Afinitus Group LLC 26

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