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Pedro.ribeiro

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    Pedro.ribeiro Pedro.ribeiro Presentation Transcript

    • Predictable Project Surprises Bridging Risk Perception Gaps Presented by Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMP President, Stratech/TheProjectOfficeSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMPPedro C Ribeiro is President of Stratech/TheProjectOffice whichspecializes in project management and risk management consultingand training. A former Director of Ernst & Young Consulting, Unisysand EDS he has over 25 years of executive and consultingexperience with global organizations. He holds an M.B.A. from TheWharton School, University of Pennsylvania, having participated inthe Project Management Program of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (M.I.T.) and in the Managing Business TransformationProgram of the Harvard Business School. He is a certified ProjectManagement Professional PMP, a Director for Central & SouthAmerica PMI Risk Management SIG, a member of ISO 31000International Risk Management Working Group, and a BoardDirector of PMI Educational Foundation. He has conductedpresentations, executive workshops and seminars in Latin America,United States and Europe and has contributed to publicationsincluding PMI Today, Chief Project Officer and PM World Today.Pedro Ribeiro lives in Sao Paulo, Brazil. He can be reached at pedrocribeiro@yahoo.com STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Presentation Summary• In many projects that fail there are early warning signs that the project will run into trouble.• However,many times, these signs are ignored and organizations end up not recognizing the early signs of failure until it is too late.• This presentation will explore the challenges of Predictable Project Surprises, Risk Perception Gaps, research, tools and ideas on how to identify early warning signs of project trouble. STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Projects Fail For Many Reasons...– Expectations were not realistic, not managed, or poorly communicated.– Requirements were unclear, contradictory, ambiguous, or there was a lack of agreement and priority– Lack of resources, resource conflicts, or poor resource planning.– Risks were poorly identified or not managed. Source: Center for Business Practices– ..... Troubled Projects Research: Project Failure or Project Recovery 2006 STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • ...however,independently of why a project failed... A Key Question: Was it a complete surprise for all project team members ?...STRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Good News!...STRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • ...rarely a surprise.• Some people in the organization knew it.• The grapevine knew it...may be well in advance.• Some project team members knew it and tried to warn the organization. The Dead Fish of Failure… It sits on the table of far too many projects… Source: The Wisdom of Grapevines Everybody smells it right away. by Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP - Tim Lister STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • The Silence Fails Study• 90% of employees know far in advance when projects are doomed.• 82% of employees say that there are significant organization-wide initiatives underway in their workplace that will likely to fail. Source:• 78% of employees say that The Silence Fails Study Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006 they are personnaly working on a “doomed” project right now. STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • The bad news is that some of thesepotential early warnings gosometimes unnoticed...• “71 % of surveyed employees say that they try to speak up about their concerns to key decision makers but do not feel they are heard• 19% don’t event attempted to speak”• 85% of all project failures can be attributed to “organizational silence”. Source: The Silence Fails Study Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006 STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • ....at all levels...“There is a large disconnect between senior management and project sponsors on one hand ,and project managers and their teammates on the other.They are not communicating”. Source: PCI Global Survey 2004 Does your organization support, ignore or obstruct project management? STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • ...leading to Predictable Surprises“Predictable surprises areevents that catch leadersoff guard even though theyhad all the informationnecessary to anticipatethem”.“Predictable surprises occurregularly in organizations Source:public and private” M.Bazerman and M.Watkins Predictable Surprises HBS Press 2004 STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Predictable Project Surprise – PPS A sudden project statuschange, or "discontinuity”in project expected oractual results, that take anorganization by surprise,when project teammembers, alreadyexpected it, and tried towarn the organization. Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Predictable Project Surprises behave similarly to Catastrophes• Catastrophe Theory - Branch of topology developed by René Thom to qualitatively describe events characterized by major abrupt changes. Catastrophes are discontinuous transitions that occurs when a system suddenly jumps, or is perceived to jump, from one state to another, such as the collapse of a bridge, a stock market crash or change in perceptions.• Project Catastrophe: A discontinuous transition that occurs when a project status suddenly jumps, or is perceived to jump, from one status to another. The project suddenly collapses leaving us wondering Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps what went wrong. How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Project Catastrophes may unfold due tounadressed differences in Risk Perceptions• Perceived Project Risk Level – An individual’s subjective assessment of a project’s risk level (likelihood and consequence), before risk responses.• Perceived Risk Response Capability – An individual’s subjective assessment of an organization’s competence ( technology, processes and people) to effectively formulate, plan and execute risk responses to perceived project risks.• Expected Project Results – An individual’s expectations with regard to the feasibility of achieving project objectives as a result of Perceived Risk Levels and Risk Response Capability. Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Risk Perceptions depend on many factors Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH Mission HIGH Impossible... Perceived Risk Level ..OR ..A Walk in LOW the Park Risk Perception Map (RPM) Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • How Project Catastrophes unfold The International Telecom Project… A Pattern of Project Catastrophe• A global services corporation entering a major global bid in South America.• The company did not match all bid requirements, but..• The international bid team did an excellent job in preparing a proposal, and winning the bid … ITP …the project that would save the Quarter and the Fiscal Year… STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Management ExpectationsSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Client ExpectationsSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Project Team ExpectationsSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Project Results- I knew it from day one - How could this happen?- Remember, I warned you... - You did not say that...- Nobody listened... - If I knew that I would... STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)A visual brainstorming tool Risk Perception Map (RPM) Perceived Risk Response Capabilitydesigned to help identifying LOW HIGHand discussing project RiskPerception Gaps and HIGH Perceived Risk LevelCatastrophes. Project Catastrophe Map (PCM) LOW Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Mapping Risk Perceptions ITP Early Warnings during Concept/Planning Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH Mission HIGH ImpossiblePerceived Risk Level T Piece M LOW of Cake C Difference in Perceived Residual Risks Residual Risk: A risk that remains after risk Risk Perception Map (RPM) responses have been implemented PMBOK 3rd Edition STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • A Risk Management DivideOfficial Processes and Tools PERCEIVED RISK LEVEL Official Unnoficial Risk Identification Risk Identification Official Unnoficial Risk Analysis Risk Analysis Official Unnofficial Planned Assessment of Risk Responses Cababilities PERCEIVED RISK RESPONSE CAPABILITIES STRATECH / TheProjectOffice Source: The Wisdom of Grapevines turning vision into reality through projects® by Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Barriers to detecting Risk Perception Gaps• Risk is a Four Letter Word• Organization Culture.• Pressure for Results HELP!• Attitutes towards Risk• Methodology=Filling forms• Technical Jargon• Best Software, Hardware ...and little Peopleware• Unclear Risk Decision Rights Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Mapping Risk Perceptions ITP Early Warnings during Execution Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH T Mission Big HIGH Impossible ChallengePerceived Risk Level M Piece LOW of Cake C Risk Perception Map (RPM) STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Mapping Risk Perceptions ITP End game Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH T Mission Big HIGH Impossible ChallengePerceived Risk Level C M Piece LOW of Cake Risk Perception Map (RPM) STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Mapping Project Catastrophes Understanding Scenarios and Consequences Per cei ved l R is ve kR Le esp ons sk e Ca Ri pab ilit y d iv e A rce Pe BExpectedProjectResults C Source: Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Projec Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Workshop Results ORG1 NPB: HEM Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH HIGH 45 % 60 % Perceived Risk Level 10 % LOW Risk Perception Map (RPM)STRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Workshop Results ORG2 PB: ECF Perceived Risk Response Capability LOW HIGH HIGH 68% 16 % Perceived Risk Level 70 % LOW Risk Perception Map (RPM)STRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Agenda• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)• Results of PCM Workshops• Conclusions STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Risk Management and CommunicationsOpportunity PMNetwork July 2007 STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Summary Learn to Recognize Risk Perception Gaps – Early warnings always precede project surprises and project surprises are often the result of ignoring available signs of risk. Listen to your Project Team – Project Catastrophes starts forming when the real project risk identification and analysis start happening only in the cafeteria, after hours or during informal conversations and not during your official risk reviews.Prepare your organization to detect looming Project Catastrophes – Unaddressed Risk Perception Gaps breed Project Catastrophes and are detrimental to project teamwork and commitment.PCM can complement Risk Identification and Lessons Learned - Recognizing early formation Project Catastrophes is an opportunity for project management continuous improvement.... STRATECH / TheProjectOffice turning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
    • Thank You Contact Information Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMP Stratech/TheProjectOffice www.TheProjectOffice.net e-mail: pedrocribeiro@yahoo.comSTRATECH / TheProjectOfficeturning vision into reality through projects® www.theprojectoffice.net © Pedro C Ribeiro 2007