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Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
Inter fellous freilich
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Inter fellous freilich

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  • 1. New Opportunities – International Collaboration Understanding Climate Change Jean-Louis FELLOUS Executive Director Committee on Space ResearchNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 1
  • 2. Observing climate and climate change Climate observation present daunting challenges  Detecting global temperature trends of 0.1° per decade, or variations in solar constant of 0.1% over the same period of time, or global sea level rise of a few mm per year Characteristics of a global climate observing system  Climate-quality measurements should be taken with accurate, calibrated instruments, converted into geophysical data, quality- controlled and stored in standard format. Data sets should be precise enough for the early detection of trends over the next decade, homogeneous in location, time and method, uninterrupted and long enough to resolve decadal trends, and with sufficient coverage and resolution to permit a description of spatial and temporal patterns of change. Current observing systems are far for being adequateNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 2
  • 3. Advances in observing techniques Progress in satellite techniques (e.g., electronics miniaturisation, antenna design, communication rates, microwave radar techniques, stability of oscillators, detector sensitivity, etc.) have led to the development of active sensors and of smaller/better/cheaper satellites, providing huge amount of all-weather observations with ever-increasing resolution in space and time.  Progress also affected ground-based (in situ) observing systems, computing capabilities and numerical models. Space-based measurements can give access (uniquely in some cases) to a wide range of climate variables relating to the atmosphere, ocean and land domainsNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 3
  • 4. Challenges and opportunities in building a global climate observing system Financial and geographic challenges  Necessary international cooperation and coordination Compatibility challenge  Combining data from different systems with varying original purposes and diverse data collection, processing and storage schemes Knowledge and innovation challenges  New capabilities from R&D space agencies Continuity challenge  Once their value has been established, these capabilities need to transition into ongoing, “operational” capabilities.NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 4
  • 5. “Crossing the Valley of Death” In a report to the U.S. National Research Council, a group of experts have compared the challenge of bridging the gap between research and operations to “crossing the Valley of Death.”NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 5
  • 6. Four major issues1. Observations of climate change  Which are the key observations that require space- based observations?2. Understanding climate change  Which are the key parameters that we do not observe sufficiently well today?3. Modeling and forecasting  Which are the observable parameters required by models?4. Mitigating the consequences of climate change  What is the role of space observations?NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 6
  • 7. Global observation needs for climate The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 to address climate-related issues  Over the years GCOS has published Adequacy Reports and a 10-year Implementation Plan to resolve the inadequacies The COP-10 (10th Conference of the Parties to the United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) adopted in December 2004 the following “Decision on research and Systematic Observation”:  “Invites Parties that support space agencies involved in global observations to request these agencies to provide a coordinated response to the needs expressed in the GCOS Implementation Plan” The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) presented its response to COP-12 in November 2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 7
  • 8. 1. Do we know what needs to be observed and how? “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” (From IPCC AR4, Summary for Policy-makers) A large fraction of climate change observations now come from space-based systems. Source: IPCC AR4NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 8
  • 9. Global Average Sea Level Rise: 1.3 mm/yr from 1960 to 2003 Altimetry Satellites 3,2 mm/yr Holgate and Woodworth, 2004 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000) Church et al., 2004, 2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 9
  • 10. Arctic Sea Ice Extent Decline from microwave imagery – 1979-2009 Source: NSIDCNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 10
  • 11. Yes, requirements have been carefully stated by GCOS… Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite- based Products for Climate Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (GCOS-92)” ************************************************** GCOS Secretariat GCOS-107 WMO/TD No. 1338 September 2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 11
  • 12. … and space agencies are well aware of the GCOS requirements CEOS Response to the GCOS Implementation Plan – September 2006 Satellite Observation of the Climate System The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Response to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation Plan (IP) Developed by CEOS and submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) on behalf of CEOS by the United States of America (USA) delegation Visit http://www.ceos.org for the full reportNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 12
  • 13. Do we miss something? The space component of the World Weather Watch in 2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 13
  • 14. Atmospheric Essential Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 14
  • 15. Terrestrial Essential Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 15
  • 16. Oceanic Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 16
  • 17. Ocean Surface Topography Constellation Roadmap 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Medium accuracy SSH from high-inclination sun-synchronous orbit GFO US HY-2A China HY-2B, -2C, -2D Saral/AltiKa India/France ERS-2 ESA ENVISAT ESA Sentinel-3A Europe Sentinel-3B, -3C, -3D CRYOSAT-2 ESA Swath altimetry from high-inclination orbit (several orbit options) SWOT/WaTER-HM USA/Europe Orbit to be assessed Jason-CS successor Europe/US High accuracy SSH from mid-inclination orbit Jason-1 Fr./USA Jason-3 Europe/USA Jason-2 Europe/USA Jason-Continuity Series Europe/USA In orbit Approved Planned/Pending approval NeededNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 17
  • 18. Yes, we mostly miss continuity ! Pending Jason-3 decision Situation improved thanks to decisions on ESA SentinelsNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 18
  • 19. Press release – February 2, 2010 Global sea level rise monitoring secured for next decade  The transatlantic Jason-3 Program has now been approved by EUMETSAT Member States (…).  Nineteen EUMETSAT Member States have agreed to subscribe to the Jason-3 ocean altimetry satellite program: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Together, these countries are prepared to contribute €63.6 million (at 2009 economic conditions) to the €252-million program cost of Jason-3.  The Jason-3 program is led by EUMETSAT and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition, the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the French space agency, is making a significant in-kind contribution to the program (…). The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in conjunction with the three other partners, will support science team activities.NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 19
  • 20. GEOSS – The Global Earth Observation System of SystemsNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 20
  • 21. CEOS Virtual Constellations for GEO New implementation framework  To inspire and facilitate commitments aimed at harmonizing and sustaining observations within CEOS members in support of GEO and GEOSS Four Initial Prototype Constellations  Land Surface Imaging  Ocean Surface Topography  Global Precipitation Mission  Atmospheric Composition New Constellations  Ocean Surface Wind Vector  Ocean Color RadiometryNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 21
  • 22. Land Surface Imaging Constellation Forest Carbon Tracking Project TERRA IRS LANDSATRESOURCESAT Landsat acquisition over Borneo ALOS SAC-C CBERS SPOT ALOS 50 m mosaic over BorneoNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 22
  • 23. The Global Precipitation Constellation … and the French-Indian MEGHA- TROPIQUES satellite to be placed in 20° inclination orbit in 2010 The Global Precipitation Mission willinclude a rain radar and several passivemicrowave radiometers in polar-orbit … NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 23
  • 24. The Atmospheric Chemistry Constellation Five of the six missions from the A-Train are already in orbit providing coordinated atmospheric composition measurementsNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 24
  • 25. The European Space Agency Sentinels Program Sentinel 1 – Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) All weather imagery, interferometry, polar regions Sentinel 2 – Super-spectral optical imagery Continuity of Landsat, Spot & Vegetation data Sentinel 3 – Ocean monitoring Ocean color, sea surface temperature and sea surface topography Sentinel 4 – Atmospheric Monitoring from GEO Atmospheric composition, transboundary pollution Sentinel 5 – Atmospheric Monitoring from LEO Atmospheric compositionNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 25
  • 26. 2. Some major uncertainties in climate change understanding Clouds and aerosols A-Train Polar ice balance CryoSat-2 Ocean natural variability vs. trends Jason + Goce GHG sources/sinks Gosat/Ibuki, (OCO-2 ?) … and moreNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 26
  • 27. 3. Space observations and decadal predictions (after Trenberth, 2009) Initialization  Ocean, sea ice, land processes. Requires observations Forward integration of the coupled model  The external forcing by greenhouse gases is prescribed. Ensemble generation  To give probabilistic nature Calibration of model output  Because of deficiencies in the component models the coupled model output needs calibration. Verification of results and skill assessment  A priori knowledge of the quality of the forecast is required based on past performance. Requires observationsNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 27
  • 28. 4. Many space observations of climate change impacts, e.g., sea level rise… Altimetry Satellites 3,2 mm/yr Holgate and Woodworth, 2004 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000) Church et al., 2004, 2006NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 28
  • 29. … or Arctic sea ice decline… Source: NSIDC Source: ESA/EnvisatNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 29
  • 30. … are there, but do we take these warnings seriously enough? Raupach et al. 2007, PNASNASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 30
  • 31. New Opportunities:International Collaboration –Understanding Climate Change Michael H. Freilich 10 February 2009
  • 32. OVERARCHING PRINCIPLES and OBJECTIVES • The Earth is an integral, complex system – Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales – Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key • Measurements must span all important variables, and all important scales • Research leads to greater understanding, which is codified in numerical models – prediction • Societal benefits result when understanding is combined with measurements so that useful information products are generated and actually used • The problem of understanding and predicting climate change is too large for any single agency or even any single nation – efficient , effective collaborations are 2 essential
  • 33. OUTLINE• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration – Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange – Plethora of potential partners o Many nations o Research and operational agencies – Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity – Collaborative missions or collaborative programs? o Differences in program structures and approaches between different international space agencies – Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ... – Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership visibility 3
  • 34. Earth Science Division Overview• Overarching goal: to advance Earth System science, including climate studies, through spaceborne data acquisition, research and analysis, and predictive modeling• Six major activities: • Building and operating Earth observing satellite missions, many with international and interagency partners • Making high-quality data products available to the broad science community • Conducting and sponsoring cutting-edge research – Field campaigns to complement satellite measurements – Analyses of non-NASA mission data – Modeling • Applied Science • Developing technologies to improve Earth observation capabilities • Education and Public Outreach• NASA’s Earth Science Program is unique: Space program with a comprehensive, broad-based research and applications element, and a research science/applications program with expertise and 4 access to space
  • 35. NASA Operating Missions – January 2010OSTM/Jason 2 X X 5
  • 36. NASA Operating Missions – International CollaborationsOSTM/Jason 2 X X 6
  • 37. International A-Train (end of CY2010)
  • 38. CloudSat and Calipso in the A-Train Vega CALIPSO track; CloudSat track CALIOP laserTaken at 5/28/09, 3am local, 6 sec exposure; track visible because satellites illuminated while surface still in darkness 8 8
  • 39. OUTLINE• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration – Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange – Plethora of potential partners o Many nations o Research and operational agencies – Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity – Collaborative missions or collaborative programs? o Differences in program structures and approaches between different international space agencies – Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ... – Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership visibility 9
  • 40. FOUNDATIONAL PRINCIPLES OF EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS• The Earth is an integral, complex system – Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales – Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key – Measurements must span all important variables and all important scales – Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential• Understanding the integrated system requires coupled, coordinated activities (“end-to-end” approach) – Measurements are important but not sufficient – Research combines measurements, develops understanding – Models codify knowledge, extend data, and can be used for prediction when coupled with measurements – Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential• Societal benefits result from useful information products based on research – Accurate, focused, timely – Predictably available – Understandable (product + user) 10
  • 41. Data Sharing/Availability Policy• NASA commits to the full and open sharing of Earth science data obtained from NASA Earth observing satellites, sub-orbital platforms and field campaigns with all users as soon as such data become available.• NASA recognizes no period of exclusive access to NASA Earth science data.• NASA makes available all NASA-generated standard products along with the source code for algorithm software, coefficients, and ancillary data used to generate these products.• All NASA Earth science missions, projects, and grants and cooperative agreements include data management plans to facilitate the implementation of these data principles.• NASA enforces a principle of non-discriminatory data access so that all users will be treated equally. For data products supplied from an international partner or another agency, NASA restricts access only to the extent required by the appropriate MOU.• NASA charges for distribution of data are no more than the cost of dissemination (OMB Circular A-130).• NASA promotes an open data sharing policy in national and international fora including GEO and US GEO. NASA is vice-chair of the CEOS Strategic Implementation Team, and is also a contributing member of the Interagency Working Group on Digital Data. 11http://nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/earth-science-data-centers/data-and-information-policy
  • 42. OUTLINE• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration – Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange – Plethora of potential partners o Many nations o Research and operational agencies – Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity – Collaborative missions or collaborative programs? o Differences in program structures and approaches between different international space agencies – Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ... – Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership visibility 12
  • 43. Diverse Range of Potential Partners/Participants• In contrast with Space Science (Planetary, Astrophysics), many different agencies/nations, with differing resources and aspirations, have the desire and the capability (and accomplishments) to contribute to Earth observations from space – NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA, CNES, CONAE, Korea, ISRO, Brazil, Thailand, ASI, …• Interests and foci often overlap or compete• Sampling considerations can justify some coordinated multiple measurements of the same quantity, but unnecessary duplication or low quality is not helpful• Data product quality, transparency, and timeliness often vary between research vs. “operational” organizations 13
  • 44. OUTLINE• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration – Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange – Plethora of potential partners o Many nations o Research and operational agencies – Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity – Collaborative missions or collaborative programs? o Differences in program structures and approaches between different international space agencies – Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ... – Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership visibility 14
  • 45. Joint Missions, or Collaborative Programs?• Joint missions are typical collaborations – Multiple contributions of hardware and services to a single mission – Both research and operational organizations – Must manage for schedule to be successful• Collaborative programs involve complementary missions divided among agencies – More common among operational agencies (NOAA does PM polar met orbit, EUMETSAT covers mid-morning; GEO met sats, etc.) – Absolutely requires transparent, full data exchange• Mission selection/definition approaches must be compatible – Mission vision/definition (e.g. Decadal Survey) vs. competitive mission focus selection (e.g. Earth Explorer, Venture-Class) 15
  • 46. Decadal Survey Missions Next Generation VENTURE-CLASS 16
  • 47. NASA Operating Missions – International CollaborationsOSTM/Jason 2 X X 17
  • 48. BACKUP 18

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