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Dumbacher.d.singer.c Dumbacher.d.singer.c Presentation Transcript

  • When Failure Means Success:Accepting Risk in Aerospace ProjectsNASA Project Management Challenge 2009Daniel L. Dumbacher, DirectorChristopher E. Singer, Deputy Director Engineering Directorate Marshall Space Flight Center
  • Agenda• Evolving from Saturn, to Shuttle, to Ares• Expanding Frontiers for 50 Years and Counting• Harnessing Risk Management Techniques and Tools• Applying Human Space Flight Testing Philosophy• Learning Lessons from the 1990s: Delta-Clipper Experimental Advanced Demonstrator• Learning Lessons from the 1990s: X-33 Single-Stage-to-Orbit Flight Demonstrator• Transitioning from Shuttle to Ares: Hard-Won Lessons• Reducing Shuttle Risk: HD Cameras Visualize ET Foam Loss• Reducing Shuttle Risk: Main Engine Cutoff (ECO) Sensor• Reducing Technical Risk for Ares I Crew and Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicles• Systems Engineering Throughout the Project Lifecycle• Testing for Knowledge versus Testing for Success• Ares I Project Milestones• Ares I-X Development Flight Test: Breaking the Systems Engineering Model• Generating and Analyzing Data to Reduce Risk: Main Propulsion Test and Integrated Ground Vibration Test• Adopting Other Risk Reduction Methods: Project Lifecycle Management• Engineering Knowledge Management System• Conclusion: Reducing the Risk Inherent in the Human Exploration of Space3/2/2009 5-397081 2
  • Evolving from Saturn, to Shuttle, to Ares 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Moon Landing Space Shuttle by 2020 Operations through 2010 Expedition to Mars Complete International Space Station by Honoring International Partner Commitments Ares I-X Test Flight 2009 Ares I Rocket Ares V Rocket First flight in 2015 First Flight in 2020 Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing SatelliteLunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Orion Crew Vehicle Development Altair Lunar Lander Development Ares I Rocket & V Rocket DevelopmentPartnerships with Emerging Commercial Space SectorCarry out Science Missions to Learn about our Planet, Solar System and UniverseAdvance U.S. Technological Leadership in Aeronautics through ResearchProvide Critical Capabilities to Support NASAs Missions 3/2/2009 5-397081 3
  • Expanding Frontiers for 50 Years and Counting 122 m (400 ft) Command/Service Altair Module Lunar Lander 91 m LunarOverall Vehicle Height, m (ft) (300 ft) Lander Orion Crew Earth Departure Exploration Vehicle Stage (EDS) S-IVB (One J-2X engine) (One J-2 engine) Upper Stage 61 m (One J-2X engine) (200 ft) S-II External Tank (Five J-2 engines) Two 5.5-Segment Two four-Segment Reusable Solid Reusable Solid Rocket Booster 30 m One 5-Segment (RSRBs) Rocket Booster Reusable Solid (100 ft) S-IC (RSRB) Rocket Booster (Five F-1 engines) (RSRB) Core Stage Orbiter (Six RS-68 Engines) Three Main 0 Engines Saturn V Space Shuttle Ares I Ares V 1967–1972 1981–Present First Flight 2015 First Flight 2020 Height: Height: Height: Height: 110.9 m (364 ft) 56.1 m (184.2 ft) 99.1 m (325 ft) 116.2 m (381.1 ft) Payload Capability: Payload Capability: Payload Capability: Payload Capability: 44.9 metric tons (99,000 lbs) to TLI 25.0 mT (55,000 lbs) to LEO 25.5 mT (56,200 lbs) to LEO 187.7 mT (413,800 lbs) to LEO 118.8 metric tons (262,000 lbs) to LEO 71.1 mT (156,700 lbs) to TLI with Ares I 3/2/2009 62.8 mT (138,500 lbs) direct to TLI 5-397081 4
  • Harnessing Risk ManagementTechniques and ToolsL 5IK 4EL 3IHO 2OD 1 1 2 3 4 5 CONSEQUENCE Likelihood Plus Consequence Equals Risk Level3/2/2009 5-397081 5
  • Applying Human Space Flight Testing Philosophy Considering the Crew Drives Levels of Analyses3/2/2009 5-397081 6
  • Learning Lessons from the 1990s:Delta-Clipper Experimental Advanced Demonstrator Defining Hardware Limits through Technology Development Flight Testing3/2/2009 5-397081 7
  • Learning Lessons from the 1990s:X-33 Single-Stage-to-Orbit Flight Demonstrator Pushing the Limits of Technology3/2/2009 5-397081 8
  • Transitioning from Shuttle to Ares:Hard-Won Lessons “The great liability of the engineer compared to men of other professions is that his works are out in the open where all can see them. His acts, step by step, are in hard substance. He cannot bury his mistakes in the grave like the doctors. He cannot argue them into thin air or blame the judge like the lawyers. He cannot, like the architects, cover his failures with trees and vines. He cannot, like the politicians, screen his short-comings by blaming his opponents and hope the people will forget. The engineer simply cannot deny he did it. If his works do not work, he is damned.” — Herbert Hoover U.S. Mining Engineer & Politician (1874 – 1964) Applying 30 Years of Lessons Lived3/2/2009 5-397081 9
  • Reducing Shuttle Risk:HD Cameras Visualize ET Foam Loss Regularly Scrubbing Requirements to Reflect Reality3/2/2009 5-397081 10
  • Reducing Shuttle Risk:Low-level Main Engine Cutoff (ECO) Sensor Solving Potentially Critical Anomalies3/2/2009 5-397081 11
  • Reducing Technical Risk forAres I Crew and Ares V Cargo Launch VehiclesIn House Upper Stage Designand Vehicle Stack Integration Designing for Life-Cycle Considerations: Safety, Reliability, Affordability3/2/2009 5-397081 12
  • Systems Engineering Throughoutthe Project Lifecycle Testing Philosophy Drives Failures3/2/2009 5-397081 13 13
  • Testing for Knowledge VersusTesting for Success Pre-Phase A Phase A Phase B Phase C Phase D Phase E Development Program SRR SDR PDR CDR 9 9 Mission 8 Operatio 8 ns Orion II System Qual 7 Tests/Develo 7 p Flight Prototype Orion I 6 Flight Demo 6 (Oper Environ) Prototype TRL 5 Test Ares I-Y 5 (Rel Environ) Component/Syst 4 em Ares I-X 4 Test Component (Rel Environ) 3 Test 3 (Lab Proof of Environ) 2 Concept 2 (Analytical Test) Application 1 Formulated 1 Basic Principles Technology Readiness Levels Drive Testing Objectives3/2/2009 5-397081 14
  • Ares I Project Milestones Ares I Project Milestones Name FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Ares 1-X Ares 1-Y Or-1 Or-2 Or-3 Or-4 Ares I Flight Dates Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep July IOC FOC Upper Stage SDR PDR CDR DCR HW Delivery Oct Aug Dec Apr ISTA Ares I-Y 1yr 9mo Build Time GVT CF HF I Or-1 Or-2 Or-3 Or-4 Or-5 Prior to Delivery Jan Feb Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Flight & Integration Test Ares I-X HW CDR to KSC Ares 1-X Mar Oct FS FS U/S Orion IGVT Testing IVGVT Empty Inert HW HW Complete Analysis Complete May Dec Apr Jan Mar Jun System-Level Tests Inform Major Engineering Milestones & Validate Readiness3/2/2009 5-397081 15
  • Ares I-X Development Flight Test:Breaking the Systems Engineering Model Validates Modeling and Simulation, and Tests Operations Concepts3/2/2009 5-397081 16
  • Generating & Analyzing Data to Reduce Risk: MainPropulsion Test & Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Test Testing the Edges and Margins on the Ground Verifies Design Performance & Validates Computer Models3/2/2009 5-397081 17
  • Project Lifecycle Management Model:Reducing Undefined, but Known, Risks Manufacturing Engineering Manufacturing People Product Engineering Information Platform Concept Engineering Technology Processes Operation s Requirements Decommissioning Designing with the End in Mind3/2/2009 5-397081 18
  • Engineering Knowledge Management SystemBroad Range of DataResources/TypesAcross the Enterprise3/2/2009 5-397081 19
  • Conclusion: Reducing the Risk Inherentin the Human Exploration of Space Engineering is a great profession. There is the satisfaction of watching a figment of the imagination emerge through the aid of science to a plan on paper. Then it moves to realization in stone or metal or energy. Then it brings homes to men or women. Then it elevates the standard of living and adds to the comforts of life. This is the engineers high privilege. — Herbert Hoover U.S. Mining Engineer & Politician (1874 – 1964) One Good Failure Is Worth a Thousand Successes3/2/2009 5-397081 20