Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Lawrence Yun’s Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Lawrence Yun’s Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers

882
views

Published on


0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
882
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide
  • This graph shows the number of distressed loans by category. The bottom category is the foreclosure inventory, which as you can has been steadily rising but the increase over the last 2 quarters of 2009 tempered off some. The green group are foreclosures started which have also decreased in the last quarter of 2009. this is, as I will talk about it more later on, due to pressure on mortgage companies to modify distressed loans and minimize the numbers going into foreclosure. Many states have also put moratorium on foreclosures towards the end of the year. The pink group are mortgages 90+ days past due which have also leveled out at the end of 2009. finally is the orange group, which are newly delinquent loans and that is the most positive news, showing that loans entering delinquent status are decreasing and possibly indicating that the foreclosure crisis in 2010 might not be as bad as was in 2009.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Return to Normalcy
      Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
      Chief Economist
      NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
      Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers Meeting
      Washington, D.C.
      December 8, 2010
    • 2. Existing Home Sales (Closings)
      Tax Credit Impact
    • 3. Pending Home Sales Index
    • 4. Pre-Boom vs. Post-Boom
    • 5. Housing Affordability Index(assumes constant underwriting standards)
    • 6. Compelling AffordabilityMonthly Mortgage to buy a Median Priced Home
    • 7. QE2 Inconsequential if Too Strict Underwriting Standards?Fannie and Freddie Backed Mortgage Loan Performance
      Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
    • 8. Distressed Loans and Shadow Inventory
      Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originated loans are performing very well.
    • 9. Underwater Homeowners and Short-Sales
      11 million underwater homeowners
      Overestimate by CoreLogic?
      75 million total homeowners
      Short-sales and Foreclosures: about 1/3 of existing home sales…1.5 million per year
      Assume ½ underwater homeowners stay put by choice (and not go through distressed sale)
      5.5 million out of pocket (CoreLogic data) … 7% lower sales
      4 million out of pocket (NAR estimate based on Fed data) … 5% lower sales
      2010 Existing + New Home Sales are … 21% lower sales versus 2000
    • 10. Homeowner Vacancy Rate(0.8% point above normal = 600,000 above normal)
    • 11. Newly Built Home Inventory
      In thousands
    • 12. Months Supply of Inventory and Real Price Growth(Historic Avg. = 7.3 months and 0.5% real price anualized growth)
    • 13. Home Sale to Payroll Jobs
      13
    • 14. Home Price-to-Income Ratio
      Source: NAR
    • 15. Home Price and Construction Cost
    • 16. CPI Housing Rent Inflation
    • 17. REALTORS’ Home Value Expectation:Survey of Realtors regarding prices in 12 months
      Increase or Stable
      Decrease
    • 18. Baseline Outlook Cont.
      • Mortgage Rates rising to 5.0% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012
      • 19. Home values – no meaningful change in the national price in the next 2 years
      • 20. Home sales to be choppy but overall improving in line with job growth … 5.2 million in 2011 (up from 4.8 m in 2010, but same as in 2000)
      • 21. Affordability conditions are too compelling
      • 22. There maybe a pent-up demand. 30 million additional people from 2000 but same home sales as in 2000.
    • Commercial Real Estate
    • 23. Real Estate Price
      Residential: Case-Shiller
      Commercial: MIT