Economic Indicators, Week of December 27-30, 2010


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Economic Indicators, Week of December 27-30, 2010

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Economic Indicators, Week of December 27-30, 2010

  1. 1. Week of December 27–December 30, 2010 Produced by NAR Research
  2. 2. Weekly Economic ForecastIndicator Updated Past Week’s Directional Forecast Forecast ShiftGDP 2010 Q4: 2.5% 2.6% ↓GDP 2011 Q1: 2.4% 2.8% ↓GDP 2011 Q2: 2.6% 3.1% ↓Unemployment rate by mid- 9.4% 9.3% ↑2011:Average 30-year fixed mortgage 5.1% 5.2% ↓rate by mid-2011:  NARs monthly official forecast as of December 30 Produced by NAR Research
  3. 3. Economic UpdatesMonday, 12/27/10• Oil prices rose today as cold winter weather hit the US northeast and Europe. Prices rose $0.26 a barrel to $93.72 from Friday.• Oil prices last rose above $100 per barrel in October 2008; it would not be suprprising if the price per barrel of oil rose to $100 during the first half of 2011. Produced by NAR Research
  4. 4. Economic Updates Tuesday, 12/28/10• Home prices for the S&P/Case Shiller 20‐city index decreased in October by 1% from September and by 0.8% from October 2009.• Of the twenty cities included in the index, four generated year‐over‐year gains: Washington, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco, while the remaining 16 depreciated over the same time frame.• Although prices decreased minimally over the last year, they have stayed relatively stable since the first part of 2009.• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased in December by 3.3% to 52.5.• The decline was primarily attributable to a decrease in confidence towards the present situation (down 7.5% in December to 25.3). In particular, 46.8% of survey respondents indicated that jobs are currently difficult to obtain.• The graph to the right details the S&P/Case Shiller 20‐city Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.• The decline in home prices has coincided with a commensurate decline in consumer confidence beginning in mid‐2007. Thus, improvement in home prices is inexorably linked to employment growth and greater consumer confidence. Produced by NAR Research
  5. 5. Economic Updates Thursday, 12/30/10• Good news for the economy. Jobless claims hit the lowest level in more than two years, since July 2008 the Labor Department said today.• Claims for the week were at 388,000—falling to a seasonally adjusted 34,000.• Jobless claims need to be below 400,000 for job creation to happen at a sustainable level.• The report confirms that job creation is happening and the economy is improving.• In context, during the height of the recession, jobless claims hit a peak of 651,000 in March 2009. Produced by NAR Research