Economic Indicators: Week of June 7 - 11, 2010

Week of June 7 – 11, 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Produced by NAR Research

W kl E i F t Weekly Economic Forecast Indicator This Week Last Week GDP 2010 Q2: 2.8% 2.8% ↔ GDP 2010 Q3: 2.7% 2.5% ↑ GDP 2010 Q4: 2.8% 2.7% ↑ Unemployment rate by the year‐ 9.9% 10.0% ↓ end 2010: Average 30‐year fixed mortgage 5.3% 5.3% ↔ rate by the year‐end 2010:  NAR's monthly official forecast as of June 2nd y J Produced by NAR Research

Economic Updates Monday, 06/07/10 •The Federal Reserve’s consumer p p g credit report points to a slight expansion in consumer credit, mostly due to broader non‐ revolving credit (credit for cars, durable goods, vacations); revolving credit (credit cards) continued to contract. •The monthly data registered a 1.0 percent advance in the annual rate of consumer credit in March 2010, with current consumer credit amount outstanding reaching $2.45 trillion. Produced by NAR Research

Economic Updates d / / Tuesday, 06/08/10 •The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data released today shows that the dynamism of the US labor market has faded during the recession, and this lack of dynamism has been a countervailing force in the housing market. •While on average, since 2000, 5 g , ,5 million workers leave jobs and 5 million workers are hired every month, in April 2010, the figures were closer to only 4 million. This translates to separation and hire rates under 40 percent over 12 months when the average rates are near 45 percent. Produced by NAR Research

Economic Updates W d d 06/09/10 Wednesday, 06/09/10 •Mortgage purchase applications (which don't take into consideration all‐cash transactions) fell 5.7 percent the week ending June 4th, marking five consecutive weeks of decline after the tax credit expired on April 30th. Purchase applications are down 35 percent over the past four weeks. • Refinance activity slowed 14.3 percent, despite interest rates falling to 4.81 percent on a 30‐year fixed mortgage. fixed mortgage Produced by NAR Research

Economic Updates Th d 06/10/10 Thursday, 06/10/10 •While the employment situation y p g, in the country is improving, the improvement is slow and incremental and is not at the current level to sustain a full economic recovery. The unemployment rate will likely stay near 10 percent for many upcoming months. •Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 3,000 to 456,000 the week ended June 5 and the number of continuing claims declined by 255,000 to 4,462,000. Produced by NAR Research

Economic Updates F id 06/11/10 Friday, 06/11/10 •As many as a third of homebuyers who signed a contract in April to meet the tax credit deadline may struggle to close the deal by the end of June due to delays h d l b h d f J d d l related to appraisals and the short sales approval process. NAR has been pushing hard to get the closing deadline extended so that homebuyers who had y responded to the government stimulus and signed the contract in good faith will be able to close the deal and get the tax credit. •NAR i NAR estimates approximately 180,000 i l 8 homebuyers will be helped by the tax credit closing deadline extension. Note: this extension does not apply to contract signings, which ended on April g g, p 30th. •Consumers retreated somewhat in May as retail sales fell 1.2 percent. However, the latest decline is a case of one step back after 3 steps forward. Retail sales were 6.1 percent higher from one year ago, which is quite robust. •Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores were up in May and are now higher by 5.3 percent from a year ago. The recent rise in home sales is no doubt bringing about a secondary economic spending impact at housing‐related retail stores. Produced by NAR Research

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Economic Indicators: Week of June 7 - 11, 2010

by NAR Research on Jun 11, 2010

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Economic Indicators: Week of June 7 - 11, 2010 — Presentation Transcript