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Week of October 25–October 29, 2010
Produced by NAR Research
Weekly Economic Forecast
Indicator Updated
Forecast
Past Week’s
Forecast
Directional
Shift
GDP 2010 Q4: 2.6% 1.7% ↑
GDP 20...
Monday, 10/25/10
• Existing Home Sales data for
September was released today,
and showed a strong gain. To
read the press ...
Tuesday, 10/26/10
• The S&P/Case-Shiller home price
index was released this morning.
The index showed a decline in both
th...
Wednesday, 10/27/10
• Mortgage purchase applications
were up 3.9 percent for the week
ending October 22nd
. Purchase
appli...
Wednesday, 10/27/10 (cont’d)
• New Home Sales were up 6.6
percent in September to an annual
pace of 307,000, yet still rem...
Thursday, 10/28/10
• New jobless claims data for week
ending October 23 show a significant
improvement in the job market, ...
Friday, 10/29/10
• Third quarter GDP expanded at a 2.0
percent annualized pace, following a 1.7
percent increase the in th...
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Economic Indicators for the Week of October 25-29, 2010

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The Research staff analyzes the week's key data releases and tell you what they mean for you and your business.

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Transcript of "Economic Indicators for the Week of October 25-29, 2010"

  1. 1. Week of October 25–October 29, 2010 Produced by NAR Research
  2. 2. Weekly Economic Forecast Indicator Updated Forecast Past Week’s Forecast Directional Shift GDP 2010 Q4: 2.6% 1.7% ↑ GDP 2011 Q1: 2.5% 2.7% ↓ GDP 2011 Q@: 2.2% 2.6% ↓ Unemployment rate by mid- 2011: 9.5% 9.8% ↓ Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2011: 4.9% 4.5% ↑ NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 4 Produced by NAR Research
  3. 3. Monday, 10/25/10 • Existing Home Sales data for September was released today, and showed a strong gain. To read the press release, click here > Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  4. 4. Tuesday, 10/26/10 • The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was released this morning. The index showed a decline in both the 10-city and 20-city composite indexes from July to August, but both indexes remain higher than their levels from the same time last year. The 10-city index was up 2.6% over the 12 months ending in August of 2010, while the 20-city index was up 1.7% over the same period. • Twelve of the cities in the 20-city index posted a decline in prices over the 12-month period ending in August. Most of the cities that remain positive were among the first cities to enter the housing slump, including Los Angeles, Boston, San Diego, and San Francisco. Washington, DC is also up compared to a year earlier at 4.8%. Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  5. 5. Wednesday, 10/27/10 • Mortgage purchase applications were up 3.9 percent for the week ending October 22nd . Purchase applications do not take into consideration cash buyers who according to the August REALTORS® Confidence Index make up as much as 28 percent of transactions. • Mortgage purchase applications were down 30.8 percent from the same week a year ago. • The government portion of the index (FHA loans) was up 4.4 percent. New FHA regulations went into place at the beginning of the month. • Refinances, which made up 82.3 percent of mortgage activity, were up 3.0 percent as mortgage rates fell to 4.25 percent on a 30-year fixed mortgage. Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  6. 6. Wednesday, 10/27/10 (cont’d) • New Home Sales were up 6.6 percent in September to an annual pace of 307,000, yet still remain very weak historically. • The median price increased slightly to $223,800. • Months’ supply of new homes fell to 8.0. • Sales in the Midwest rose over 60 percent, while sales in the West fell almost 10 percent. • New orders for durable goods increased 3.3 percent in September; however, the report was weak excluding the boost in the demand for commercial aircrafts. Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  7. 7. Thursday, 10/28/10 • New jobless claims data for week ending October 23 show a significant improvement in the job market, above all expectations. There were 21,000 fewer claims bringing the total claims down to 434,000.The 4-week moving average also decreased by 5,500 to 453,250. Dropping below 400,000 would suggest more jobs are being created than terminated. As a result, the unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance decreased 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's 3.6 percent. The number of continuing claims also dropped significantly, by 122,000 to 4,356,000. The 4-week moving average decreased by 38,500. • The largest decrease in new claims was in California, primarily in service industry, followed by North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Puerto Rico had the largest increase in new claims, followed by Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, and Alabama. Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  8. 8. Friday, 10/29/10 • Third quarter GDP expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace, following a 1.7 percent increase the in the second quarter. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of real GDP growth. • Gains were seen in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment, and government purchases. The highest gain was in personal consumption expenditures (PCEs). PCEs were the strongest since late 2006. • However, the economy remains soft as it is below the 3 percent historical average and much below the 4 to 5 percent that would be expected coming out of the recession. The unemployment rate will remained elevated near 10 percent for a while. • Consumer sentiment fell to 67.7. There will not be any meaningful increase until the economy improves vigorously. • Usually after an election, consumer sentiment rises. The majority of people got their desired result. As a result, there could be an improvement in the next month’s data. Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
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