2012 Latino Vote: Potential and Impact


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Projections on the Latino vote in the 2012 Presidential Election by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.

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  • Obama won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada; giving Obama a massive head-start. Clinton then won Florida and Michigan handily, but both states were stripped off their DNCC delegates for moving their nominating primaries to January – Obama wasn’t On Super ”duper” Tuesday, California had largest payout – 370 delegates. Based on our analysis, Obama may have narrowly won CA if it weren’t for strong Latino voter support for Clinton. This win kept her campaign alive, allowing for one of the longest primary battles in history. __________________The Florida GOP nomination primary proved to be a vital win for McCain, and provided the momentum his campaign needed heading into Super Tuesday, after which he emerged as the presumed nominee. Although McCain won five points ahead of Romney, analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund using exit poll data shows that if no Latino had voted in that election, Romney would have won by several percentage points.__________________9.7 million Latinos voted in November– 28% more than 2004. The non-Latino vote increased by 3%.Latino voters comprised 7.4% of all voters in the 2008 general election – up from 6% in 2004.Decisive role in CO and NM; growing influence in IN and VA.
  • South sees dramatic Latino growth – NC Latino population doubles (111%).
  • Some of the states with the largest increase in the Latino population are also states gaining seats in Congress following reapportionment. Some states may have lost seats if not for Latino population growth.
  • Some of the states with the largest increase in the Latino population are also states gaining seats in Congress following reapportionment. The best prospects for increased Latino representation in Congress are in Texas, IF the court-approved maps retain two new Latino opportunity seats as proposed by advocates.Nevada may also see a gain, with a fairly strong Latino opportunity seat with viable Latino candidates.In California there are two new effective seats in SF Valley and Riverside/Imperial/San Diego County areas that should have been drawn in 2001.In Florida, the plans being considered by state legislature appear to create fairly good opportunity district in Central Florida – a total of six seats.
  • The NALEO Educational Fund develops its projections based on past voter participation in Presidential elections. This conservative methodology has proved effective at estimating turnout – in 2008 the NALEO projection fell short of actual turnout by 5%. In the 2010 midterm election, the NALEO projection was 2% short of actual turnout.At the national level, we project that more than 12 million Latinos will vote in the general election – a record number, and an increase of 26% from the historic 2008 election. As you can see, California and Florida will see even larger increases in Latino voter turnout.In California – the nation’s most populous state and the 8th largest economy in the world – almost 1 million additional Latinos will vote in November, representing more than 1 in 4 voters statewide.
  • Latino potential electorate is growing rapidly, and more Latinos vote with each election. For 2012, we project record gains.However, the gap between Latino and non-Latino voter turnout persists – we only see incremental gains in the effort to close the gap. This is unacceptable.Without coordinated efforts to address this crisis, our community’s political participation will take generations to reach parity with the non-Latino electorate.
  • 2012 Latino Vote: Potential and Impact

    1. 1. The 2012 Latino Vote:Potential and Impact NALEO Educational Fund February 8, 2012 www.naleo.org
    2. 2. 2008 Presidential Elections Reapportionment GOP Latino voters deliver critical win to McCain in Florida. Democratic Latino voters in California sustain Hillary Photo by the Clinton’s primary campaign.Associated Press Record Latino turnout of 9.7 million -- a 28% increase over 2004. Latinos reshape the political map, including those with emerging Latino communities.
    3. 3. Latino Population Growth ReapportionmentNationally-coordinated effort topromote Latino participation,succeeds – population grows 43%,and reaches 50.5 million mark.Latinos prevent net populationdecline in IL, NJ, and NY.Texas sees largest pop. increase innation – 4.3 million. Latinosaccount for 65% of that growth.Almost 1 in 4 youth (under 18) inthe United States is Latino.
    4. 4. Decennial Reapportionment Reapportionment
    5. 5. Redistricting ReapportionmentPotentially two new Latinoopportunity seats in Texas.Latino opportunity district in theLas Vegas area, Nevada. Jerry McCrea/The Star-LedgerTwo new Latino effective seats inCalifornia.Possibility of new opportunitydistrict in Central Florida.
    6. 6. 2012 Projected Latino Vote Projected Projected Increase Latino Share Latino Voters from 2008 of VoteNATIONAL 12,237,000 25.6% 8.7%Arizona 359,000 23.2% 12.0%California 3,911,000 32.1% 26.3%Colorado 224,000 15.0% 8.7%Florida 1,650,000 34.5% 18.3%New Mexico 329,000 14.0% 35.0%Texas 1,987,000 17.1% 21.3%
    7. 7. Growth and Continued NeedLatino CVAP, Registration, and Turnout in General Elections
    8. 8. National Latino Civic Engagement Table Maria Teresa Kumar Rudy Lopez Voto Latino Center for Community Change Ben Monterroso Clarissa Martinez-De-Castro Mi Familia Vota National Council of La Raza Arturo Vargas NALEO Educational Fund