A yam between two boulders

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A yam between two boulders

  1. 1. A YAM BETWEEN TWO BOULDERS : NEPAL’S FOREIGN POLICY CAUGHT BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA
  2. 2. GEOGRAPHY • PRITHIVI NARAYAN SHAH OF THE HOUSE OF GORKHA FORGED MODERN NEPAL IN THE LATE 18TH CENTURY. • HE ASSESSED NEPAL’S GEOGRAPHIC POSITION STATING THE KINGDOM TO BE A TRAUL ( YAM ) BETWEEN TWO BOULDERS TO WHICH GOOD AND EQUAL RELATION IS A MUST. • FURTHER IT SHARES LONG BORDERS WITH BOTH INDIA AND CHINA , NEPAL IS INSULATED FROM CHINA BY THE HIMALAYAN CHAIN WHEREAS IT SHARES AN OPEN BORDER WITH INDIA ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF BIHAR AND U.P MAKING IT POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY SOUTHWARD ORIENTED. • ALSO ITS FOREIGN TRADE IS WIDELY DEPENDENT ON ACCESS TO INDIA , NOT CHINA.
  3. 3. CONTINUES! • FURTHER NEPAL ACTS AS A BRIDGE AND AN INTERMIDIATE ZONE BETWEEN SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA. • NEPAL’S CONTROLS A NO OF STRATEGIC PASSES SUCH AS KUTI – KODARI , MUSTANG HATIA & KERONG CONNECTING INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. • THIS HAS BEEN A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FORMULATION OF NEPAL’S FOREIGN POLICY AND ITS ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE NEIGHBORING STATES.
  4. 4. HISTORY! • AFTER GURKHA CONQUESTS UNIFIED NEPAL WAS FORMED IN 1769 , FURTHER EXPANSION MOVED THE NATION’S BORDERS TO FAR WEST OF KUMAON AND SIKKIM IN EAST. • FURTHER DUE TO HURDLES IN TRADE & ECONOMIC RELATIONS THE GURKHAS INVADED & DEFEATED TIBET IN 1788 -79 • EVEN AFTER ITS VICTORY NEPAL PURSUED AN AGGRESSIVE POLICY TOWARD TIBET , TRIGERRING SUCCESSFUL CHINESE MILITARY INTERVENTION ON BEHALF OF TIBET FORCING GURKHAS TO SURRENDER IN TERMS OF CHINESE SUZERAINTY IN 1762
  5. 5. ANGLO NEPAL WAR • FURTHER CHINA KEPT NEPAL’S NORTHWARD EXPANSION IN CHECK GURKHA EXPANDED SOUTHWARD IN TERAI & THE ENSURING RIVALRY B/W NEPAL AND BRITISH INDIA EVENTUALLY LED TO THE ANGLO NEPAL WAR OF 1814 – 16 WHERE THE BRITISH DEFEATED NEPAL AND FORCED TO SIGN THE SUGAULI TREATY CEDING 1/3 OF NEPAL IE SIKKIM, KUMAON, GARHWAL & A FEW PORTIONS OF EAST AND WEST OF TERAI.
  6. 6. RANA REGIME AND THE CHANGES DURING THEIR RULE • RANA REGIME (1846 – 1951 ) USHERED IN A NEW ERA OF UNDERSTANDING AND COOPERATION B/W NEPAL AND THE BRITISH. • IN 1856 WHEN NEPAL LAUNCHED AN ATTACK ON TIBET THE BRITISH ALLOWED THE PURCHASE OF ARMS & THE NEPALESE TRANSPORT TROOPS THROUGH THEIR TERRITORY. • MOREOVER , DURING THE REGIME OF JANG BDR ( 1857 ) NEPALI TROOPS SUPPORTED BRITISH AGAINST INDIAN MUTINEERS WHICH RESULTED IN THE RETURN OF SOME ANNEXED TERAI LAND. • FURTHER TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANGLO NEPALI CONFLICT THE BRITISH RECRUITED GURKHA TROOPS FOR THEIR ARMY. THEY ALSO ENCOURAGED ECONOMIC & CULTURAL EXCHANGES B/W THE TWO GOVERNMENTS. • OVERALL THE RANAS FOLLOWED A POLICY OF ISOLATION FOCUSING ON APPEASING THE EAST INDIA COMPANY THEREBY MAKING NEPAL’S EXTERNAL AFFAIRS MOSTLY LIMITED TO ITS NEIGHBOURS.
  7. 7. CONTINUES! • HERE , HOWEVER THE NEPALESE PUBLIC’S RESPONSE TO THE INSTRUCTION OF INDIAN INFLUENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE POST RANA PERIOD WAS OFTEN VOCALLY HOSTILE HENCE THERE WAS NO AUTONOMOUS NEPALI FOREIGN POLICY AS SUCH B/W 1951-5
  8. 8. NEPAL’S DIPLOMATIC TIE UP WITH OTHER COUNTRIES • NEPAL ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES INCLUDING CHINA AND SOVIET UNION PROVIDING A HEDGE AGAINST DEPENDENCE ON INDIA • IN AUGUST 1951THE U.S OFFERED AMBASSADORIAL LEVEL REPRESENTATION FOLLOWING AMBASSADOR CHESTER BOWLES WHO JOURNEYED OVER THE COOLIE PATH FROM INDIA TO KATHMANDU IN FEBRUARY 1952. • AFTER KING MAHENDRA SUCEEDED TO POWER IN MARCH 1955 , HE ACCELERATED THE DIVERSIFICATION OF NEPAL’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS STABLISHING A DEGREE OF EQUIDISTANCE TO ITS NEIGHBOURS. • IN 1955 NEPAL WAS ADMITTED INTO THE UNITED NATIONSTRANSFORMING IT FROM ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST CLOSED SOCIETIES TO ONE OF THE MORE ACCESSIBLE OF THE SMALL STATES IN THE THIRD WORLD. • BY 1990’S IT ENJOYED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH APPROXIMATELY 100 COUNTRIES. • NEPAL ALSO DEVELOPED STRONG BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH INDIA ,CHINA , AND THE U.S AS THEY WERE THE KEY DONORS DURING THE 1960’S AND 1970’S.THEREAFTER AIDS FROM JAPAN AND MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS LIKE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ,THE WORLD BANK AND THE SAARC ARE ACTIVE IN NEPAL
  9. 9. THE CENTRALITY OF INDIA FOR NEPAL • INDO – NEPAL RELATIONSHIP LONG CONTROLLED BY RAJ INTERESTS SINCE 1947 EXPERIENCED THE TENSIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES THAT SMALL NEIGHBOURS HAVE WITH LARGE ONES. • HISTORICAL , GEOGRAPHICAL , ECONOMIC , POLITICAL , RELIGIOUS & SOCIOCULTURAL LINKS AS WELL AS CONSTANT FLOW OF POPULATION ACROSS BORDERS CREATE DEEP ASSOCIATION B/W THE TWO. THE OPEN BORDER NATIONAL TREATMENT GRANTED TO THE NATIONALS OF OTHER COUNTRY AND LONG STANDING FAMILIAL LINKS AT VARIOUS LEVELS UNDERLINE THE EXCEPTIONAL CLOSE INTERACTION B/W THE TWO NEIGHBOURS. • HOWEVER FRICTION TOOK PLACE IN THE PAST WHERE INDIA IMPOSED AN ECONOMIC BLOCKADE AGAINST NEPAL IN 1989 DUE TO THE UNPAID NEPALI BILLS HOWEVER THE MAIN REASON BEHIND WAS THE PURCHASES OF WEAPONS FROM CHINA . • TREATY OF PEACE & FRIENDSHIP CONCLUDED B/W INDIA AND NEPAL ON JULY 31 1950 FORMS THE BASIS OF INDIAN POLICY TOWARDS NEPAL. THE 1950 TREATY OBLIGATED BOTH THE GOVERNMENTS TO CONSULT EACH OTHER OF ANY PROBLEM THAT WOULD AFFECT THEIR FRIENDLY TIE. IT ALSO PERMITTED NEPALI GOVT TO IMPORT FREE THROUGH THE INDIAN TERRITORY IE ARMS , AMMUNITION ETC FOR THE SECURITY OF NEPAL. • IN 1962 , INDIA & NEPAL CONCLUDED A SECRET ARM S ASSISTANCE AGREEMENT IN WHICH INDIA UNDERTOOK TO SUPPLY ALL ARMS AND EQUIPMENTS TO THE ENTIRE NEPALESE ARMY. • FURTHER INDO NEPALI DIRECT AND TRANSIT TRADES HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY A SERIES OF TREATIES SUCEESIVELY SIGNED IN 1950 , 60 , 71 , AND 1978. THE LAST EXPIRED IN MARCH 1988 AFTER WHICH NEW DELHI PLAYED ITS TRUMP CARD – ITS OPEN BORDER WITH NEPAL. HOWEVER IN MARCH 1989 DELHI CLOSED ALL BUT 2 OF THE 21 BILATERAL TRADE ROUTES B/W THE TWO COUNTRIES & 13 OF THE 15 TRANSIT ROUTES AGREED UNDER 1978 TREATY. • IN JUNE 1990 THE NEW NEPALI P.M AGREED TO REVERT PAST PRACTICE IN MATTERS OF TRADE & TRANSIT & FURTHER A NEW TRANSIT TREATY WAS INTRODUCED IN 1991 ENDORSING THE PROVISIONS OF THE 1978 TREATY WHICH DILUTED NEPAL’S ACCESS TO & FROM THE SEA ON THE PRINCIPLE OF RECIPROCITY.
  10. 10. CONTINUES! • FURTHER NEPAL’S RESENTMENT OF INDIAN DOMINATION HAS BEEN DIRECTLY ON INDIA’S EFFORT TO UPHOLD ITS SPECIAL SECURITY RELATION WITH NEPAL. • FOR NEPALESE GOVT , INDIA IS THE ULTIMATE GUARANTOR OF LAW AND ORDER
  11. 11. NEPALI INTERESTS AND CONCERNS • THE KEY OBJECTIVE OF BOTH NEPAL’S DOMESTIC & FOREIGN POLICY : • TO ACHIEVE INTERNAL STABILITY , PEACE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. • TO PURSUE AN INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC & FOREIGN POLICY. • TO PLAY A GROWING ROLE IN BOTH REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. • THERE IS BOTH APPRECIATION AND ANXIETY IN NEPAL OVER THE DEPTH OF RELIGIOUS & CULTURAL AFFINITIES WITH INDIA. • FURTHER , THERE HAS BEEN AN UNEQUAL NATURE OF THE TREATIES SIGNED WITH INDIA PARICULARLY THE 1950 TREATY WHICH HAS BEEN HEAVILY FAVORING THE INDIAN SIDE. • ALSO THE LARGE INDIAN SHARE IN NEPAL’S TRADE, TOURISM & INVESTMENT HAS ALSO BEEN MANIPULATED POLITICALLY TO FOSTER RESENTMENT AND APPREHENSIONS ABOUT INDIA.
  12. 12. INDIA’S INTERESTS & CONCERNS • SINCE THE BILATERAL RELATIONS FROM THE LATE 198O’S INDIA HAS DEVELOPED SYMPATHETIC APPROACH TOWARDS NEPAL. • INTERVENTIONS OF INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY UNDER SITARAM YECHURY’S INFLUENCE INDIA SHIFTED FROM A POSITION OF UNBRIDLED HOSTILITY VIS-ÀVIS NEPAL’S MAOISTS TOWARDS A WILLINGNESS TO ACCOMMODATE THEIR PARTICIPATION IN TALKS ON NEPAL’S GOVERNANCE. • THE MAOISTS AGREED TO THE LATTER DEMAND IN STAGES IN 2005-06 • IN PARALLEL PROCESS INDIA WHICH HAD GENERALLY BEEN HOSTILE TO THE U.N’S INVOLVEMENT IN ITS NEIGHBOURHOOD SINCE THE WORLD’S ORGANIZATION FAILED TO UPHOLD INDIAN CLAIMS OVER KASHMIR IN 1948 UNSUCESSFULLY RESISTED A COUNTRY WIDE RESIDENT MISSION OF THE U.N HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS in 2005. • FURTHER INDIA SUPPORTED THE ELECTORAL PROCESS THAT BROUGHT NEPALI MAOISTS TO POWER IN 2008 , BUT TENSIONS ARISED LATER B/W THE MAOISTS AND INDIA DUE TO THE RELATION THAT NEPALI MAOISTS SEEMED KEEN TO BUILD WITH BEIJING) . • FOR INDIA, THE FOREMOST ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO NEPAL IS CHINA & ITS EVOLVING RELATION WITH KATHMANDU.IT IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNED BY BEJING’S GROWING ENGAGEMENT IN SAARC.
  13. 13. CONTINUES! • THE FEAR OF CHINESE INFLUENCE IS ALSO THE FIRST FACTOR INDIAN OFICIALS AND ANALYSTS CITE ON THE PROBLEMS OF THE MAOIST-LED GOVT IN 2009.AT THAT TIME MAOISTS PERSUED BETTER RELATIONS WITH BEIJING IN AN ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LEVERAGE VIS-À-VIS NEW DELHI, CROSSING A MAJOR INDIAN RED LINE. • ALSO P.M PRACHANDA CHOOSE CHINA INSTEAD OF INDIA FOR HIS FIRST FOREIGN VISIT WHERE TALK OF A PROPOSED NEW BILATERAL COOPERATION TREATY B/W CHINA & NEPAL RAISED FURTHER CONCERN.ALSO IN THIS CONTEXT SOME ANALYSTS IN KATHMANDU SUGGESTED THAT INDIA MIGHT HAVE PUSHED THE MAOISTS TOWARD A CRISIS OVER THE ARMY CHIEF TO PREVENT THE CONCLUSION OF SUCH A TREATY. • IN CONTRAST STORIES IN INDIAN PRESS A FEW DAYS AFTER THE FALL OF THE MAOIST GOVT IN 2009 SUGGESTED CHINA ENCOURAGED PRACHANDA TO SEEK A CONFRONTATION WITH THE NEPALESE ARMY THAT EVENTUALLY LED TO THE MAOIST GOVT’S DOWNFALL. • INDIA’S CONCERN ALSO LIES TO THE FACT THAT EVEN AFTER SUPPORTING NEPAL WITH A 1OOO CRORES , CHINA REMAINED MORE ACTIVE IN NEPAL. • ALSO DELHI’S CONCERN IN CONSTRAINING MAOISTS INFLUENCE OVER THE NEPALESE- ARMY DOUBTLESS WITH CONSTRAING UNBRIDDLED MAOIST POWER THAN IT DID WITH A LARGER STATERGIC CONFLICT WITH CHINA . • AFTER CHINA , IT IS PAKISTAN THAT HOLDS THE SECOND PLACE IN THE LIST OF NEW DELHI’S MAJOR SECURITY CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO NEPAL. INDIA FEARS THAT PAKISTAN OVER THE 15 YRS OR MORE HAS BEENMAKING COVERT USE OF THE OPEN BORDER TO PROMOTE SUBVERSIVE ACTIVITIES AGAINST INDIA. IN THE PAST GROUPS OPERATING FROM WITHIN PAKISTAN HAVE TARGETED INDIA MURDERROUSLY THROUGH NEPAL. NOTABLY IN DECEMBER 1999 INDIAN AIRLINES FLIGHT IC814 FROM KATHMANDU TO DELHI WAS HIGHJACKED BY 5 MEMBERS OF THE PAKISTANI TERRORIST GROUP KILLING 1 OF THE INDIAN PASSENGER IN KANDAHAR WHERE THEY WERE RELEASED IN EXCHANGE FOR ISLAMIC MILLITIANTS JAILED IN INDIA.
  14. 14. COOPERATION ON WATER • WATER RESOURCE IS A VITAL ISSUE OF CONCERN BETWEEN INDIA AND NEPAL. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE GREATEST ASSET TO THEIR RELATIONSHIP IF ENGINEERED SYSTEMATICALLY BY THE TWO GOVERNMENTS. • INDIA’S INCREASING NEED OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT SPEAKS TO ITS POTENTIALLY MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC INTEREST IN NEPAL(HYDROELECTRICITY), AS MAJOR PARTS OF DOWNSTREAM DISCHARGE OF THE GANGA IS CONTRIBUTED BY FLOWS EITHER ORIGINATING OR TRANSITING NEPAL FROM TIBET MOSTLY THE KOSI , GANADAKI AND KARNALI SYSTEMS.BECAUSE OF THE TERRIAN , NEPAL PROVIDES THE BEST IF NOT ONLY THE OPTION FOR THE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD CONTROL & DRY SEASON. • HOWEVER IN 2008 , A CHANGE IN COURSE OF THE KOSI PRODUCED A MASSIVE FLOODING IN BIHAR & IN NEPAL WITH HUGE LOSS OF LIFE. • THE FIRST RECORDED WATER RESOURCE NEGOTIATIONS B/W NEPAL & INDIA OCCURRED B/W 1910 & 1920 WHEN BRITISH INDIA REQUIRE DTO HARNESS THE SARDA (MAHAKALI) RIVER WHICH FORMED THE WESTERN BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP IRRIGATION IN THE UNITED PROVINCE (UP).NEPAL LACKING TO UNDERSTAND THE VALUE OF WATER RESOURCE AGREED TO THE TREATY WHICH INCLUDED AN EXCHANGE OF A TERRITORY. (NOT AN ADVANTAGEOUS DEAL FOR NEPAL)
  15. 15. CONTINUES! • FURTHER INDIA ENJOYS THE BENEFITS OF KOSI & GANDAK TREATIES (1954 &1959 ) COVERING IRRIGATION AND FLOOD CONTROL BECAUSE THEY LED TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF DAMS THAT PROTECTS THE INDIAN LANDS. • MANY IN NEPAL VIEWED THIS TREATY AS A COMPLETE SELLOUT OF THEIR NATURAL RESOURCES.ALTHOUGH IT WAS NEPAL THAT PREVENTED CONSTRUCTION OF LARGER DAMS THAT WOULD HAVE ACCURED MORE BENEFITS TO IT. • FURTHER IN THE CLIMATE OF MUTUAL DISTRUST , DESPITE DISCUSSIONS B/W THE 2 NATIONS ON SEVERAL MULTIPURPOSE PROJECTS KARNALI , PACHESHOWRE , SAPTAKOSHI OVER 3 DECADES HAVE MADE A LITTLE PROGRESS. AS IN INDIA ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS WORRIES ABOUT THE DISPALCEMENT OF PEOPLE AND MISGIVINGS ABOUT LARGE PROJECTS ACTIVE IN THE HIMALAYAN REGION HAVE MILITATED AGAINST LARGE SCALE CENTRALIZED GENERATION OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER ( EXPORT)
  16. 16. CONTINUES! • FURTHER THERE’S BEEN A VIEW IN NEPAL THAT REJECTS LARGE SCALE WATER DEVELOPMENT, ADVOCATING INSTEAD FOR DECENTRALIZED , RELATIVELY SMALL , ENVIRONMENTALLY BENIGN PROJECT PRIMARILY FOR NEPAL’S OWN NEEDS. • THIS VIEW DOES NOT RULE OUT THE EXPORT OF ELECTRICITY , BUT LARGE GENERATION PRIMARILY FOR EXPORT TO A SINGLE LARGE BUYER (INDIA) UNDER INTERGOVERNMENTAL ARRANGEMENTS IS NOT CONSIDERED DESIRABLE. • HENCE THIS ALTERNATIVE OF NATIONAL CAPACITY BUILDING , LOCAL GOVT PARTICIPATION & USE OF CHEAP AND RELIABLE ELECTRICITY TO GIVE THE NATIONAL INDUSTRIES A COMPETITIVE EDGE COULD HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THE CHALLENGES NEPAL FACES. • NEPAL’S HYDROELECTRIC POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY SUFFICIENT TO TRANSFORM THE NATION’S ECONOMY IN A DRAMATIC MANNER.UNTIL SERIOUS IMPROVEMENTS ARE MADE IN THIS AREA , NEPAL WILL REMAIN A NET IMPORTER OF INDIAN ELECTRICITY DESPITE ITS ACHIEVABLE HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF 42, 000 MEGABYTES.
  17. 17. China’s interests and concerns • THE MAIN OF CHINA’S POLICY IN NEPAL WAS TO COMPLICATE INDIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH KATHMANDU SO AS TO LIMIT NEW DELHI’S ABILITY TO TAKE EFFECTIVE ACTION BEYOND THE SOUTH ASIAN REGION. • IN 1950 CHINA’S OCCUPATION OF TIBET HEIGHTENED BOTH CHINESE INTERESTS IN &OVER NEPAL.BEIJING FEARED THAT NEPAL BORDERING TIBET WOULD BE USED BY ITS COLD WAR RIVALS FOR ANTI CHINA ACTIVITIES BY THE GROWING PRESENCE OF TIBETAN REFUGEES PLUS THE OCCUPATION OF TIBET EXTENDED BEIJING’S REACH INTO NEPAL. • CHINA REPORTEDLY REGARDED TIBET AS THE PALM AND NEPAL , BHUTAN, SIKKIM, LADAKH AND ARUNACHAL AS THE 5 FINGERS OF TIBET. • IN 1955 CHINA YIELDED TO INDIAN WISHES & REFRAINED FROM STABLISHING A RESIDENT EMBASSY IN KATHMANDU & IN 1956 IT OBTAINED INDIA’S APPROVAL BEFORE SIGNING A TREATY WITH TIBET. • IN 1959 , BEIJING ENCOURAGED ANTI INDIANISM IN NEPAL SEEKING OPPORTUNITIES TO EXPLOIT FRICTION B/W KATHMANDU & DELHI WHILE ENTERING INTO DIRECT CONFRONTATION WITH INDIAN IN THE HIMALAYAS , CULMINATING IN THE CHIAN – INDIA BORDER WAR IN 1962. • HOWEVER DURING B.P KOIRALA’S PREMIRESHIP (1959- 60) IT GOT FAILED .
  18. 18. CONTINUES! • FURTHER IN 1960, CHINA UNEXPECTEDLY STALKED A CLAIM OVER MT EVEREST WHICH RESULTED TO A LARGE ANTI- CHINESE DEMONSTRATION IN KATHMANDU ON APRIL 21 , 1960 TO AFFIRM NEPAL’S SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE WORLD’S HIGHEST PEAK & ITS MOST VISIBLE ASSET GLOBALLY. • AGAIN IN JUNE 28 1960 , CHINESE TROOPS INTRUDED INTO MUSTANG OF NORTHWEST NEPAL KILLING 1 & CAPTURING SEVERAL OTHERS NEPALI BORDER GUARDS LATER CHINESE P.M CHOU EN LAI EXPRESSED DEEP REGRET OVER THE INCIDENT BY RETURNING THE PRISIONERS AND PAYING COMPENSATION FOR THE DEAD. • IN 1961 , KING MAHENDRA PAID A VISIT TO CHINA ON KATHMANDU-KODARI ROAD WHICH BEIJING AGREED TO FINANCE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THEIR GOODWILL. • TODAY BEIJING’S POLICY TOWARDS NEPAL LIES IN EXPANDING INFLUENCE IN NEPAL & SUPRESSING ANTI-CHINA ACTIVITIES OF TIBETIAN COMMUNITIES RESIDING THERE. • ALSO IN THE PRESENT CONTEXT CHINA MAKES FRIENDS WITH ANY NEPALI GOVT THAT KEEPS A LID ON POLITICAL ACTIVITY BY THE ESTIMATED 20,000 TIBETIANS. WHETHER MONARCH , MAOIST OR THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES THE NATURE HAS MADE A LITTLE DIFFERENCE TO BEIJING . • FURTHER BEIJING’S CONCERN ARE NOT ENTIRELY IRRATIONAL AS EXTERNAL ENCOURAGEMENT OF KHAMBA REBELLION IN THE 1960’S WAS PRONOUNCED FROM NEPAL. YET CHINA EFFORTS TO CUT OFF ACCESS FOR TIBETIANS TO NEPAL RUNS COUNTER TO THE PREFERENCES OF WESTERN POWERS SUCH AS U.S AND MAY ALSO DISTRESS INDIA. • CHINESE APPREHENSIONS IS AT ITS MOST INTENSE IN TIMES WHEN ITS OCCUPATION OF TIBET IS POTENTIALLY THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL AS THE RUN UP to the 2008 OLYMPIC GAMES IN BEIJING IT HAD EXPANDED SECURITY & POLICE ALONG NEPAL’S BORDER WITH TIBET, REDUCING THE NO OF PEOPLE CROSSING THE BORDER TO SEEK REFUGEE IN NEPAL.
  19. 19. CONTINUES! • FURTHER, CHINA INVESTS NEXT TO NOTHING IN RELATION TO INDIA , BUT ITS BEEN MORE SUCESSFUL IN GAINING ITS INTEREST. THUS ITS CONSTRUCTION OF NEW ROAD ACCESS FROM TIBET TO NEPAL IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHARP MESSAGING TO CURTAIL ACCESS TO INDIA THROUGH NEPAL BY TIBETIANS SEEKING CONTACT WITH DALAI LAMA. • IN 2010, CHINA WENT AS FAR AS PRESSING THE KATHMANDU GOVT TO CEASE HONOURING THE SO CALLED GENTLEMEN’S AGGREMENT PROVIDING THE SAFE TRANSIT FOR TIBETANS TO INDIA THROUGH NEPAL. • INITIALLY BEIJING HAD DEMONSTRATED LITTLE INTEREST ABOUT THE MAOIST INSURGENCY.ITS ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE MAOIST WARMED CONSIDERABLY AS THE PEACE PROCESS PROGRESSED.THE EXCHANGE OF VISITS BY BOTH THE GOVERNMETAL & NON-GOVT DELEGATIONS AFTER THE MAOIST TOOK OVER THE GOVT (2008) WAS FOLLOWED IN INDIA.YET EVEN BEIJING REMAINED AQUALLY COMFORTABLE WITH ALL OTHER POLITICAL ACTORS. • SINCE 2006, CHINA HAS OPENED UP AID, NEW CULTURAL CENTERS, EXPANDED VISITS & OFFERED NEPAL NON LETHAL MILITARY AID & TRAINING BY THE CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY. YET CHINA DIDN’T LAVISH MONEY ON THE MAOIST PARTY OR THE GOVT IT LED. IN CONTRAST NEW DELHI FINDS THE SUPPORT OF THE VERY PARTIES , POLITICIANS & LOCAL COMMUNITIES THAT IT SHOWERS WITH FINANCIAL TEN ELINDUCEMENT OFTEN ELUSIVE.
  20. 20. CONTINUES! • INDEED CHINA’S GROWING PREOCCUPATION WITH NEPAL APPEARS TO BE COMMERCIAL FOR ITS TRADE BETWEEN CHINA & NEPAL.THE OLDER KATHMANDU-KODARI HIGHWAY & OTHER 7 TRANSIT POINTS B/W CHINA & NEPAL ARE BEING STRENGTHENED. • THE TOTAL TRADE JUMPED FROM INR 2.2 BILLION IN 1998-9 TO INR 5.4 BILLION IN 2001.SINCE THEN IT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO INR 6.8 BILLION. LATER CHINA & NEPAL SIGNED AN AGREEMENT FOR FUTHER ECO-TRADE COOPERATION THAT COULD BENEFIT NEPAL.
  21. 21. CONCLUSION! • NEPAL DISPALYS THE SENSITIVITIES OF SMALLER NATIONS WITH LARGE NEIGHBOUR. THE NEPALI LEADERSHIP WOULD SEEM TO HAVE MUCH TO GAIN FROM PROMOTING ON THE PROVISIONS OF INDIA’S GUJRAL DOCTORINE WHICH ADVOCATES GOOD NEIGHBOURLY RELATIONS & SEEKS NO RECIPROCAL CONCESSIONS FROM POOR BORDERING COUNTRIES. • INDIA NEEDS A POSITIVE AGENDA IN NEPAL.CONCESSIONS OFFERED TO NEPAL UNDER VARIOUS INDO-NEPAL TRADE TREATIES DO NOT SEEM HAVE CONTRIBUTED MUCH TO NEPALI ECONOMY. THE WHOLE SPHERE OF ECONOMIC RELATION B/W THE COUNTRIES DEFINITELY NEEDS MORE ATTENTION IN BOTH CAPITALS , PARTICULARY IN KATHMANDU WITH NEPAL HAVING POTENTIALLY THE MOST TO GAIN. • THE TENSIONS INHERENT IN THE RELATION B/W THE INDIA’S GOVT & THE MAOIST IN NEPAL POINT TO THE CHALLENGES THAT INDIA FACES IN ANALAYZING & INFLUENCING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES.INDIAN POLITICAL LEADERS INCL MINISTERS HAVE TAKEN REMARKABLY LITTLE RESPONSIBILITY FOR A NEPAL POLICY.INDIAN DIPLOMATS HAVE DOUBTLESS DONE LITTLE MORE THAN IMPLEMENT ON THE GROUND GUIDENCE CRAFTED BY SENIOUR OFFICIALS IN DELHI WITH MINISTRAL APPROVAL. • HERE, SENIOUR MAOIST LEADER & FORMER P.M BABURAM BHATTARAI ADOPTED THE CONVINIENT VIEW THAT INDIA MISHANLED THE CRISIS OVER THE ARMY CHIEF KATWAL IN 2009 LEAVING IT IN THE HANDS OF BLUNDERING BUREAUCRATS. • FURTHER CHINA WILL CONTINUE ITS COMMERCIAL & OTHER TIES WITH NEPAL. THE INEVIATABLE EXPANSION OF CHINESE INFLUENCE ACROSS ASIA WILL BE FELT BY NEPAL.
  22. 22. • NON REGIONAL POWERS LIKE U.S WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENGAGED WITH NEPAL. • DONOR COUNTRIES TOO WILL BE ATTRACTED TO NEPAL BY THE NATION’S PEOPLE & POVERTY , BUT MAY BE REPELLED BY THE INCOMPETENCEOF ITS SUCESSIVE GOVT , RAPACIOUSNESS OF LOCAL ELITES & CORRUPTION IN NEPAL. • THUS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS B/W 2006 & TODAY HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO NEPAL’S FOREIGN POLICY OPTIONS AND HENCE IT REMAINS CAUGHT B/W THE TWO YAMS. • LASTLY NEPAL MUST LEARN TO MAKE BEST OF THIS SITUATION SO IN ORDER TO ERADICATE THE CURRENT DISPENSATION.

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