Dr. Myron Shekelle will discuss the Copenhagen Summit (COP 15) and what he thinks the intended effects are for cooperation between the United States and Southeast Asian nations, notably Malaysia. In line with this, he will discuss how his experiences in the region have illuminated some potential solutions, and many of the very real pitfalls, for foreign-sponsored, collaborative biodiversity research and conservation in Southeast Asia.”
Dr. Shekelle received a B.A., with departmental honors, from the University of California (UCLA) in 1991. He was then awarded a National Science Foundation Predoctoral Fellowship and attended Washington University in St. Louis, where earned an M.A. (1993) and a Ph.D (2003). He was awarded a National Science Foundation International Postdoctoral Research Fellow, and was based at the University of Indonesia. Subsequently he was a teaching fellow at the National University of Singapore within their flagship undergraduate educational institution, the University Scholars Program, with a joint appointment in the Department of Biological Sciences. With more than 10 years of experience living and working in Southeast Asia as a professional conservation biologist, he returned to the USA in 2008 to found his own science-based conservation organization, tarsier.org.
DATE AND TIME AND VENUE OF PROGRAMS:
Kota Kinabalu
·March 01, 2010 (Monday), 9.30 am -11.30 am: Environmental Action Committee, Le Meridien Hotel, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.
·March 01, 2010 (Monday), 2.30 am – 4.30 pm: Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu.
Kuching
·March 03, 2010 (Wednesday), 9.30 am -11.30 am: Sarawak Development Institute, Kuching, Sarawak.
·March 03, 2010 (Wednesday), 2.30 am - 4.30 pm: Institute of Biodiversity and Environmental Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak.
Kuala Lumpur
·March 05, 2010 (Friday), 10.00 am – 12.00 pm: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor.
·March 05, 2010 (Friday), 3.30 – 5.30 pm: Forest Research Institute, Kepong, Kuala Lumpur.
·March 06, 2010 (Saturday), 9.30 am – 11.00 am: Dialogue with Bloggers and Students on Global Environment, Avenue K, Kuala Lumpur.
·March 06, 2010 (Saturday), 12.00 pm – 2.00 pm: Central Market Annex, Kuala Lumpur.
COP 15: What is the Impact on Malaysia and Southeast Asia?
1. COP 15:
What is the Impact on Malaysia and Southeast Asia?
Dr. Myron Shekelle
tarsier.org
Visiting Assistant Professor
Department of Biology
Adjunct Curator
Museum of Vertebrate Zoology
Portland State University
Portland, Oregon, USA
US State Department Speaker/Specialist Series
Embassy of the United States of America, Public Affairs Section
Kota Kinabalu, Kuching, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
March 1st – 6th , 2010
2. ORGANIZATION
of this presentation
1. Why am I here? Who am I? Why should you care to
listen?
2. COP 15 and American policy.
3. Personal experiences, comments, & observations.
3.
4. A brief introduction . . .
travelled Sulawesi for 14
years, researching tarsiers
1994
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
2004
2005
6. from “Wild Indonesia: The Mystery of Sulawesi”
filmed July 1997 in Tangkoko Nature Reserve, North Sulawesi
essentially a third, nearly independent lineage of primates
7. Some conclusions from my research. . .
Eastern tarsiers are a cluster of 16+ related species within a
population formerly classified as a single subspecies!
• Old fashioned science (taxonomy, biogeography)
• New technology (genetics, bioacoustics)
• Greatly improved understanding of the true scope of biodiversity
Shekelle et al. (2008)
Stephen
tumpara
Nash
8. Some conclusions from my research. . .
Eastern tarsiers are a cluster of 16+ related species within a
population formerly classified as a single subspecies!
• Old fashioned science (taxonomy, biogeography)
• New technology (genetics, bioacoustics)
• Greatly improved understanding of the true scope of biodiversity
Biodiversity on Sulawesi
underestimated by an
order of magnitude?!?
Shekelle et al. (2008)
Stephen
tumpara
Nash
9. Some implications from my research. . .
Sulawesi is subdivided into 16+ subregions
of endemism.
10. Some implications from my research. . .
Sulawesi is subdivided into 16+ subregions
of endemism.
l Biodiversity will be better conserved by
conserving primary habitat (like tropical
forest), within each of these subregions.
11. Some implications from my research. . .
Sulawesi is subdivided into 16+ subregions
of endemism.
l Biodiversity will be better conserved by
conserving primary habitat (like tropical
forest), within each of these subregions.
l All forest conservation is not the same
when it comes to preserving biodiversity!
12. Take Home Message:
Old science
+
new technology
=
greatly improved
conservation priority setting
13. What’s the goal of biodiversity conservation anyway???
To minimize the effects of anthropogenic loss of biodiversity, from genes to
species.
14. What’s the goal of biodiversity conservation anyway???
• To minimize the effects of anthropogenic loss of biodiversity, from
genes to species.
• To keep the actual extinction rate at or near the level of the “background
extinction rate.”
15. Why is biodiversity conservation important???
• Seven out of ten biologists believe that we are in the midst of a mass
extinction of living things
16. Why is biodiversity conservation important???
• Seven out of ten biologists believe that we are in the midst of a mass
extinction of living things
• This mass extinction is the fastest in Earth's 4.5-billion-year history and,
unlike prior extinctions, is mainly the result of human activity and not of
natural phenomena.
17. Why is biodiversity conservation important???
• Seven out of ten biologists believe that we are in the midst of a mass
extinction of living things
• This mass extinction is the fastest in Earth's 4.5-billion-year history and,
unlike prior extinctions, is mainly the result of human activity and not of
natural phenomena.
• Scientists rate biodiversity loss as a more serious environmental
problem than the depletion of the ozone layer, global warming, or
pollution and contamination.
18. Why is biodiversity conservation important???
• Seven out of ten biologists believe that we are in the midst of a mass
extinction of living things
• This mass extinction is the fastest in Earth's 4.5-billion-year history and,
unlike prior extinctions, is mainly the result of human activity and not of
natural phenomena.
• Scientists rate biodiversity loss as a more serious environmental
problem than the depletion of the ozone layer, global warming, or
pollution and contamination.
• Anthropogenic biodiversity loss is a global problem, on par with
anthropogenic climate change!
19. Why is biodiversity conservation important???
• Seven out of ten biologists believe that we are in the midst of a mass
extinction of living things
• This mass extinction is the fastest in Earth's 4.5-billion-year history and,
unlike prior extinctions, is mainly the result of human activity and not of
natural phenomena.
• Scientists rate biodiversity loss as a more serious environmental
problem than the depletion of the ozone layer, global warming, or
pollution and contamination.
• Anthropogenic biodiversity loss is a global problem, on par with
anthropogenic climate change!
20. Can anything be done about biodiversity conservation???
“Flagship species” raise awareness and funds
20
24. Can anything be done about biodiversity conservation???
Nature can be co-opted to help conserve itself!
24
25. Conclusion Part 1
Why study tarsiers?
1. Better understand distribution of biodiversity.
2. Charismatic animals can serve as flagship species.
And
• Biodiversity loss is a worldwide problem on a level similar
to that with global warming
• Habit conservation in this region is operationally quite
similar to mitigation efforts for global warming.
26. Conclusion Part 1
Why study tarsiers?
1. Better understand distribution of biodiversity.
2. Charismatic animals can serve as flagship species.
And . . . we get two for one!
4. Biodiversity loss is a worldwide problem on a level similar
to that with global warming
5. Habit conservation in this region is operationally quite
similar to mitigation efforts for global warming.
27. -Global Climate Change
-The Copenhagen Summit and Accord
-My interpretation of the intended effects
for cooperation between the United States
and Southeast Asian nations, notably
Malaysia.
27
28. Background to global climate change . . .
A) It’s not new!
Global climate change estimates from oxygen isotope
ratios during the Phanerozoic Eon (542 Ma!)
28
29. Background to global climate change . . .
B) The effects are profound!
Artists impression of Earth during the last glacial
maximum, ca. 12,000 years ago.
29
30. Background to global climate change . . .
B) The effects are profound!
North America during last glacial maximum
30
31. Background to global climate change . . .
B) The effects are profound! (even in the tropics!!!)
Canon et al. (2009)
31
32. Background to global climate change . . .
Two responses for human society
•Mitigation
•Adaptation
32
33. Global Climate Change
the American position
“We in the Administration are of the view that the
science is not only compelling but indicates the need for
prompt and substantial efforts at a global level to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.”
--Jonathan Pershing, Deputy Climate Envoy, Department of State
33
34. Global Climate Change
What was COP 15?
1. COP 15 = the 15th Conference of Parties, annual meetings
dating back to 1995.
• Based upon the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992,
which produced the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change).
• COP 3 produced the Kyoto Protocol, 1997: legally binding
reductions in emissions. (not ratified by USA).
34
35. Global Climate Change
What happened in Copenhagen
1. Representatives from 192 countries.
2. Plan was to agree upon a framework for climate
change mitigation.
3. This did not happen. One expert described it as:
“Global geo politics exposed at it rawest level.”
4. What did come out, however, was the final product
called the Copenhagen Accord, which was not
adopted by UNFCCC, and is informal document.
35
36. Global Climate Change
What is the Copenhagen Accord
1. Endorses continuation of the Kyoto Protocol.
2. Sets mitigation target at 2 degrees Celsius.
3. Recognizes "the crucial role of reducing emission
from deforestation and forest degradation and the
need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas
emission by forests", and the need to establish a
mechanism (including REDD-plus).
36
37. Global Climate Change
What is REDD-plus,
and what does it all mean?
1. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation.
2. “plus” = Some finance to low deforestation countries
so that deforestation doesn’t leak into those areas.
Safegaurds: indigenous people, community rights,
biodiversity.
37
38. Global Climate Change
What happened in Copenhagen?
1. "The meeting has had a positive result, everyone
should be happy.”
--Chinese delegation.
38
39. Global Climate Change
the American position
what does it mean for this region?
1. The current administration obviously feels the
science of global climate change is compelling and
warrants action
• The administration is committed to providing
mitigation assistance, and sees promise in the
REDD-plus option for countries like Malaysia (and
Heart of Borneo is one of several likely project that
this could be applied to)
• It will be much easier to assist Malaysia in this way if
it supports the Copenhagen Accord.
39
40. Global Climate Change
the American position
Take home message:
The Obama administration is looking for partners to do good
mitigation projects with Southeast Asian nations through some
form of cap-and trade in carbon, and is willing to provide
substantial sums of money to accomplish this.
(Just a guess, but it’s not rocket science)
40
46. Haze
Breaking the Cycle
with Primate Conservation?
Dr. Myron Shekelle
Department of Biological Sciences
& University Scholars Programme
National University of Singapore
48. Student projects: Independent Studies Module (Fall 2006)
“Haze” and Primate Conservation
“Preaching to the unconvertible”
Breaking the Haze Cycle
with Primate Conservation?
with Syahirah Bte Abdul Karim & Suhaila Bte Haji Taher
with financial assistance from the
NUS
University Scholars Programme
49. The Cost
USD $4.5 billion
. . . in 1997 alone!
85% borne by Indonesia
(they did little then, so don’t expect Indonesia to see it
in their self-interest to end this problem soon)
What can Singaporeans do?
51. Biodiversity is the Raw Material of Biotechnology:
The case of Tarsiers in SE Asia
•SE Asia is a biodiversity warehouse.
•Singapore is ideally positioned study it.
•Biotechnology without biodiversity won’t
have utility or value.
52. Biodiversity is the Raw Material of Biotechnology:
The case of Tarsiers in SE Asia
•SE Asia is a biodiversity warehouse.
•Singapore is ideally positioned study it.
•Biotechnology without biodiversity won’t
have utility or value.
53. Correlating Primate Species Richness
with Climate
• Srivathsan et al. (submitted to International Journal of
Primatology). “Southeast Asian Primate Species
Richness Correlates Linearly With Rainfall Using GIS
Modeling” Sunday, March 16, 2008
Singapore
54. Species Richness and Rainfall
Combined Region (Mainland, Sumatra, and Borneo)
r2=0.23, p<0.001
r2=0.926, p= 8.4 x 10 -6
55. Species Richness and Seasonality
Combined Region (Mainland, Sumatra, and Borneo)
r2=0.41, p= <0.001
r2Breakpoint=6.67, 6th stratum ≈5 dry months/year
=0.84, p= 1.8 x 10-4
57. Significant Positive Linear Correlation
between primate species richness and mean annual rainfall globally
Extent of Occurrence Extent of Occurrence
(Polygon, No Isolated Regions)
58. Significant Negative Linear Correlation
between primate species richness and seasonality globally
Extent of Occurrence Extent of Occurrence
(Polygon, No Isolated Regions)
61. Conservation Implications
• Globally we predict a 2.3% decline in primate species
richness capacity by the year 2080.
• Variation among regions is large:
o Tanjung Puting: -3.8%
o Kutai: -7.3%
o Vietnam: -8.7%
o Central Suriname Reserve: -15.5%
62. TARSIERS:
A Critical Taxon for Southeast Asian
Biodiversity Conservation
Why my taxon is an excellent
indicator/flagship/umbrella species!
Dr. Myron Shekelle, Ph.D.
Department of Biological Sciences
National University of Singapore
www.tarsier.org
67. Primates are found throughout the tropics, but
extant tarsiers are found only in insular southeast Asia
68. Tarsiers Are Very Old
essentially a third independent branch of primates
essentially a third, nearly independent lineage of primates
Phylogram of Tarsier Evolutionary History
(based on nDNA, Meireles et al. 2003)
69. •Capacity Building for Sustainable Community-
Based Ecotourism Development
Dr. Myron Shekelle
Director, tarsier.org
USA
Lessons
Learned
from
Tangkoko
BIMP-EAGA Community-Based Ecotourism Conference
Driving Growth and Alleviation through Community-based Ecotourism in the BIMP-EAGA
Strengthening EAGA Communities through Conservation
Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia
October 30th - November 1st, 2008
70. Take Home Message
There is enormous potential for sustainable community based “ecotourism” in
BIMP-EAGA with this recipe:
•Nature attracts scientists
•Scientists spend grant money locally and train local people as assistants
•Adventure tourists trickle in
•Former field assistants start small businesses as tour guides and open homestays
•Accessibility improves with infrastructure to exploit tourism
•Natural history documentary makers consult scientists about where and how to
film nature, and scientists recommend their field site, resulting in television crew
arriving and spending money locally, hiring former field assistants as laborers
and expert assistants
•The nature television program provides free marketing about the ecotourism
71. How long does it take?
. . .the hitch.
•At Tangkoko, the process from the arrival of the first long-term science
project to the present day has been more than 30 years.
•But now that we know the recipe, we can hope that future projects can
become functional much more quickly
How well does it work?
. . . other the hitch. It only works so-so.
•Partial conservation of nature: Locals actively work to guard against illegal
exploitation of the nature reserve in the parts that are profitable to them, but
in other regions of the reserve this may not be the case.
•Partial fulfillment of economic needs: Economic conditions in the village are
aided by “ecotourism”, but still lag well behind expectations, but . . . the local
people have not fully tapped the economic potential of Tangkoko.
72. Summary of Section Three
• Educational messages outside of our circle of the
converted
• Adaptation: Using science to estimate which
forests will be most at threat from GCC
• Mitigation: deciding which forests will be most
beneficial, not just for GCC, but also biodiversity
loss.
72
73. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
73
74. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 74
75. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
customer
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 75
76. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 76
77. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
donates money
ì
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 77
78. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
donates money
ì
è pressures government
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 78
79. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
donates money
ì
è pressures government
î pressures businesses
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 79
80. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
donates money
î
ì
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
î pressures businesses ì
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 80
81. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
donates money
î
ì
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
î pressures businesses ì
customer nature conservation
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 81
82. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
$ $
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 82
83. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
$ $
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 83
84. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
$ $
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $ habitat destruction and
degradation continues
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 84
85. My experiences, opinions, and comments based upon 15
years of research and conservation within Southeast Asia
(primarily Indonesia and Singapore, with some Philippines,
and tiny bits of Cambodia and Thailand) . . .
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
$ $
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $ habitat destruction and
degradation continues
MY TWO CENTS: A large gap has sprung up between our foreign-
sponsored conservation projects in Southeast Asia and our
knowledge of what the customer wants, or who the customer even
is. 85
86. FOR HOW LONG?
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
è pressures government è
PROJECT
$
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $ habitat destruction and
degradation continues
86
87. If we want to continue getting money for foreign-sponsored
habitat conservation projects, we must practice good
business sense (even in the NGO /not-for-profit sphere):
KEEP THE CUSTOMER SATISFIED
$
donates money
î
ì $ $
CONSERVATION
$ è pressures government è
PROJECT
$
î pressures businesses ì $
customer $ habitat destruction and
degradation continues
1. Know what the customer wants.
2. Consistently deliver a product that meets or exceeds the
customers expectations. 87
88. The unconverted and unconvertible are in the USA, too.
Successful joint project to mitigate climate change here, helps sway the
debate back in the USA in favor of action, whereas failure could harm it.
88
89. Thank you!
From “Wild Indonesia” by Tigress Films, 1998 filme
by Justin Maguire
90. 22nd Pacific Science Congress
• Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia
• 13 – 17 June 2011
• www.22ndpsc.net
“Asia-Pacific Science: Meeting the Challenges of Climate
Change and Globalization”
91. Question: Does the Climate Research Unit email hacking
incident show that a cabal of scientists are trying to rig the
published literature in favor of anthropogenic global
warming?
91
92. Question: Does the Climate Research Unit email hacking
incident show that a cabal of scientists are trying to rig the
published literature in favor of anthropogenic global
warming?
92
93. Question: Does the Climate Research Unit email hacking
incident show that a cabal of scientists are trying to rig the
published literature in favor of anthropogenic global
warming?
93
94. Question: Do erroneous predictions about Himalayan
glaciers discredit the science of global warming?
94
95. Question: Do erroneous predictions about Himalayan
glaciers discredit the science of global warming?
95
99. Question: What about the American government’s repeated
insistence on transparency for programs like REDD-plus . . .
99
100. Question: What about the American government’s repeated
insistence on transparency for programs like REDD-plus . . .
while within America, governmental programs like TARP are
anything but transparent; does this indicate that the
American government is hypocritical?
100
101. Conclusion Part 2
Has the science been discredited?
Not at all!
The science is compelling in spite of the news reports we have
heard that claim to discredit the science of global warming:
science can sometimes be ugly, and the science of global
warming is little different.
Editor's Notes
Two years later Kay et. al studied Asia and Neotropics. They found a non-linear relationship. This corresponded to the non-linear relationship of plant productivity in the neotropics and hence they concluded that species richness is mainly determined by plant productivity.
These are results for combined region- we can see that we found a strong correlation here
So as I had mentioned before, we found significant negative relationship in combined region. However in the strtified analysis we noticed that 6-10 strata had nearly constant species richness. Hence we reanalysed this using breakpoint regression megthod and found a break point at 6.67 th stratum. It becomes important to note that strata 6-10 had over 5 dry months per year.