December Market Report

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  • http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/
  • http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
  • http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing%20Economic%20Risk%20Factor%20Report.pdf
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
  • http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-20131115,0,5318891.column
  • http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys-says-2013-11-13
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/update-when-will-payroll-employment.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-2014.pdf
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf
    http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
  • http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-and-sellers-technology-trends/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf?force_download=true
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Transcript

  • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
  • 2. “We expect single-family home sales and housing starts to be at the highest level since 2007.” Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
  • 3. PRICES
  • 4. Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
  • 5. 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q
  • 6. Days on Market
  • 7. Year-over-Year Price Changes by State FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
  • 8. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply CoreLogic11/2013
  • 9. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
  • 10. Sustainability of Current Price Increases Fitch Ratings11/2013
  • 11. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month Atlanta .5% Miami .8% Boston .5% Minneapolis .8% Charlotte -.2% New York .6% Chicago .3% Phoenix 1.2% Cleveland .3% Portland .7% Dallas .2% San Diego .9% Denver .2% San Francisco .8% Detroit 1.5% Seattle .3% Las Vegas 1.3% Tampa .2% Los Angeles 1.1% Washington .4% S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
  • 12. "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their place, we're beginning to see more inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further normalization in the market going forward." Dr. Stan Humphries Zillow Chief Economist
  • 13. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 11/2013
  • 14. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 5% 1.8% 0.9% 0% -5% -5% -7.6% -6.2% -10% -14% -15% -13% -16.8% -20.8% -20% -24% -25% % January February -24% -20.8% March April May June July August Sept October -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% NAR 11/2013
  • 15. "All those young people who moved in with their parents over the past few Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. years and didn't move out during the recession, there should be pent-up demand for household formation." Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist
  • 16. “We believe millennials will Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. follow every generation that preceded them, buying homes once their economic situation improves.” Joseph Snider VP and senior credit officer at Moody’s
  • 17. 121M Current Households in the United States Projected Growth over the Next 3 Years 3.7% Number of Additional Households Formed 4.48M Urban Land Institute 11/2013
  • 18. ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
  • 19. A government stimulus package… for the HOUSING INDUSTRY
  • 20. “Although the consensus is the Affordability is still good compared to 2014 to 50 years. Fed will wait untilany time over the last start to taper asset purchases, December is still possible.” Bill McBride Calculated Risk
  • 21. 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Federal Reserve 11/2013
  • 22. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 4.8% 5.3% 5.0% 5.3% National Assoc of Realtors Freddie Mac Mortgage Bankers Assoc
  • 23. The Cost of Waiting Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I) $250,000 4.3% 1,237.18 Next Year $250,000 5.3% 1,388.26 Today Monthly Difference $161.08
  • 24. 30 DAY PLAN
  • 25. www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego
  • 26. Re-up all of your existing listings
  • 27. List EVERY expired listing in January
  • 28. Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased by percentages 50 45 40 Newspaper Yard Sign Internet 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NAR 11/2013
  • 29. eGuides Available eGuides Available
  • 30. 15% Discount
  • 31. 5,500,000 Existing Home Sales 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
  • 32. Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 11/2013
  • 33. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – November 2013 65.7 47 29.5 3 Dow MSN Money.com, Case Shiller S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
  • 34. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 – November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013
  • 35. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
  • 36. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 4.0 NAR 11/2013
  • 37. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% NAR 11/2013
  • 38. On Average 14,027 NAR’s November Existing Home Sales Report Homes Sell SALES EVERY DAY! UP 6% INVENTORY over last year PRICES UP 12.8% over last year UP .9% over last year
  • 39. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply CoreLogic11/2013
  • 40. 88 % Where Do Buyers Find a Home? 92 % of all buyers search online during home buying process of all buyers purchased a home through an agent % 28 of all buyers look to print newspaper ads
  • 41. 45 40 35 Where Buyers Find the Home They Purchase Over the Last 10 Years by percentage 30 *NAR 11/2013 The Internet 25 20 15 10 Yard Signs 5 Newspapers 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 42. 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Federal Reserve 11/2013
  • 43. facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers
  • 44. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 5 Frank Nothaft Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf 7 Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf 8 FHFA Maps http://www.fhfa.gov/ 9 Days on Market http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396 10 Year-over-Year Change by State http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf 11 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx 12 Year-over-Year Change in Prices 13 Sustainability of Current Price Increases 14 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 15 Dr. Stan Humphries Quote 17 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 19 Jed Kolko Quote http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing% http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24 www.realtor.org http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-2 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 45. Resources Slide Slide Title 20 Joseph Snider Quote 22 Emerging Trends in 2014 25 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html 26 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 28 Mortgage Rate Projections Link http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-20 http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlo http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-and-sellers-techn 34 Where Buyer Found the Home They Purchased 39 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org/ 40 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 41 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 42 Dr. Stan Humphries Quote https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spiceassets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 46. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 44, 45 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.realtor.org 47 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx 48 Where Do Buyers Find a Home? www.realtor.org 50 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 47. Successful People Start Fast and FINISH STRONG