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KCM Divided into
Three Sections
“We expect single-family
home sales and housing
starts to be at the highest
level since 2007.”

Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Eco...
PRICES
Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
2012 4Q

2013 1Q

2013 2Q

2013 3Q
Days on Market
Year-over-Year Price Changes by State

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Months Supply

CoreLogic11/2013
Year-over-Year Change in Prices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
Sustainability of Current Price Increases

Fitch Ratings11/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area

Month-Over-Month

Metropolitan Area

Month-Over-Month

Atlanta

.5%...
"The conditions that led to the robust appreciation
experienced earlier this year, including historically
low mortgage int...
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 11/2013
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
5%
1.8%

0.9%

0%
-5%

-5%

-7.6%

-6.2%

-10%
-14%
-15%

-13%

-16.8%
-20.8%

-20%
-24%
-...
"All those young people who moved in
with their parents over the past few
Affordability is still good compared to any time...
“We believe millennials will
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
follow every generat...
121M
Current Households
in the United States
Projected Growth over
the Next 3 Years

3.7%
Number of Additional
Households ...
ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce
A government stimulus
package…
for the
HOUSING
INDUSTRY
“Although the consensus is the
Affordability is still good compared to 2014 to 50 years.
Fed will wait untilany time over ...
2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 11/2013
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst

Projected Rate
4Q 2014

Fannie Mae

4.8%
5.3%
5.0%
5.3%

National Assoc of Realtors
Fre...
The Cost of Waiting
Mortgage

Interest Rate

Payment (P&I)

$250,000

4.3%

1,237.18

Next Year $250,000

5.3%

1,388.26

...
30 DAY PLAN
www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego
Re-up all of your existing listings
List EVERY expired
listing in January
Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased
by percentages

50
45
40

Newspaper

Yard Sign

Internet

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0...
eGuides Available
eGuides Available
15% Discount
5,500,000

Existing Home Sales

5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
Pending Home Sales

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 11/2013
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – November 2013

65.7

47
29.5
3

Dow
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

S&P

NASDAQ

Real Est...
30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – November 2013

Federal Reserve 11/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

4.0

NAR 11/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%

14%

NAR 11/2013
On Average

14,027

NAR’s November
Existing Home
Sales Report

Homes Sell
SALES

EVERY DAY!

UP 6%

INVENTORY

over last y...
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Months Supply

CoreLogic11/2013
88

%

Where Do Buyers
Find a Home?

92

%

of all buyers search online
during home buying process

of all buyers purchase...
45

40

35

Where Buyers Find the
Home They Purchase
Over the Last 10 Years
by percentage

30

*NAR 11/2013

The Internet
...
2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 11/2013
facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers
Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

5

Frank Nothaft Quote

http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_ou...
Resources
Slide

Slide Title

20

Joseph Snider Quote

22

Emerging Trends in 2014

25

Bill McBride Quote

http://www.cal...
Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

44, 45

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale,
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

w...
Successful People Start Fast and

FINISH STRONG
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
December Market Report
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December Market Report

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  • http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/
  • http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396
  • http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
  • http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing%20Economic%20Risk%20Factor%20Report.pdf
  • http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
  • http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-20131115,0,5318891.column
  • http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys-says-2013-11-13
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/update-when-will-payroll-employment.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-2014.pdf
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf
    http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
  • http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-and-sellers-technology-trends/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf?force_download=true
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
  • www.realtor.org
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • Transcript of "December Market Report"

    1. 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    2. 2. “We expect single-family home sales and housing starts to be at the highest level since 2007.” Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
    3. 3. PRICES
    4. 4. Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
    5. 5. 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q
    6. 6. Days on Market
    7. 7. Year-over-Year Price Changes by State FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013
    8. 8. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply CoreLogic11/2013
    9. 9. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
    10. 10. Sustainability of Current Price Increases Fitch Ratings11/2013
    11. 11. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month Atlanta .5% Miami .8% Boston .5% Minneapolis .8% Charlotte -.2% New York .6% Chicago .3% Phoenix 1.2% Cleveland .3% Portland .7% Dallas .2% San Diego .9% Denver .2% San Francisco .8% Detroit 1.5% Seattle .3% Las Vegas 1.3% Tampa .2% Los Angeles 1.1% Washington .4% S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
    12. 12. "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their place, we're beginning to see more inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further normalization in the market going forward." Dr. Stan Humphries Zillow Chief Economist
    13. 13. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 11/2013
    14. 14. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 5% 1.8% 0.9% 0% -5% -5% -7.6% -6.2% -10% -14% -15% -13% -16.8% -20.8% -20% -24% -25% % January February -24% -20.8% March April May June July August Sept October -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% NAR 11/2013
    15. 15. "All those young people who moved in with their parents over the past few Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. years and didn't move out during the recession, there should be pent-up demand for household formation." Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist
    16. 16. “We believe millennials will Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. follow every generation that preceded them, buying homes once their economic situation improves.” Joseph Snider VP and senior credit officer at Moody’s
    17. 17. 121M Current Households in the United States Projected Growth over the Next 3 Years 3.7% Number of Additional Households Formed 4.48M Urban Land Institute 11/2013
    18. 18. ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
    19. 19. A government stimulus package… for the HOUSING INDUSTRY
    20. 20. “Although the consensus is the Affordability is still good compared to 2014 to 50 years. Fed will wait untilany time over the last start to taper asset purchases, December is still possible.” Bill McBride Calculated Risk
    21. 21. 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Federal Reserve 11/2013
    22. 22. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 4.8% 5.3% 5.0% 5.3% National Assoc of Realtors Freddie Mac Mortgage Bankers Assoc
    23. 23. The Cost of Waiting Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I) $250,000 4.3% 1,237.18 Next Year $250,000 5.3% 1,388.26 Today Monthly Difference $161.08
    24. 24. 30 DAY PLAN
    25. 25. www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego
    26. 26. Re-up all of your existing listings
    27. 27. List EVERY expired listing in January
    28. 28. Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased by percentages 50 45 40 Newspaper Yard Sign Internet 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NAR 11/2013
    29. 29. eGuides Available eGuides Available
    30. 30. 15% Discount
    31. 31. 5,500,000 Existing Home Sales 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
    32. 32. Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 11/2013
    33. 33. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – November 2013 65.7 47 29.5 3 Dow MSN Money.com, Case Shiller S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
    34. 34. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 – November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013
    35. 35. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 11/2013
    36. 36. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 4.0 NAR 11/2013
    37. 37. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% NAR 11/2013
    38. 38. On Average 14,027 NAR’s November Existing Home Sales Report Homes Sell SALES EVERY DAY! UP 6% INVENTORY over last year PRICES UP 12.8% over last year UP .9% over last year
    39. 39. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply CoreLogic11/2013
    40. 40. 88 % Where Do Buyers Find a Home? 92 % of all buyers search online during home buying process of all buyers purchased a home through an agent % 28 of all buyers look to print newspaper ads
    41. 41. 45 40 35 Where Buyers Find the Home They Purchase Over the Last 10 Years by percentage 30 *NAR 11/2013 The Internet 25 20 15 10 Yard Signs 5 Newspapers 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    42. 42. 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Federal Reserve 11/2013
    43. 43. facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers
    44. 44. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 5 Frank Nothaft Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf 7 Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf 8 FHFA Maps http://www.fhfa.gov/ 9 Days on Market http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396 10 Year-over-Year Change by State http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf 11 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx 12 Year-over-Year Change in Prices 13 Sustainability of Current Price Increases 14 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 15 Dr. Stan Humphries Quote 17 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels 19 Jed Kolko Quote http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing% http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24 www.realtor.org http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-2 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    45. 45. Resources Slide Slide Title 20 Joseph Snider Quote 22 Emerging Trends in 2014 25 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html 26 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 28 Mortgage Rate Projections Link http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-20 http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlo http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-and-sellers-techn 34 Where Buyer Found the Home They Purchased 39 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org/ 40 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 41 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 42 Dr. Stan Humphries Quote https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spiceassets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    46. 46. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 44, 45 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.realtor.org 47 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx 48 Where Do Buyers Find a Home? www.realtor.org 50 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    47. 47. Successful People Start Fast and FINISH STRONG
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