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Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season
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Foresight - Predicting The Upcoming TV Season

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As TV ratings decline and media costs escalate, we increasingly need state of the art tools to make the most informed investment decisions. …

As TV ratings decline and media costs escalate, we increasingly need state of the art tools to make the most informed investment decisions.

To this end, Mullen’s Mediahub has developed FORESIGHT, a tool that leverages digital chatter to handicap the potential success or failure of new television shows.

Mullen will issue three in-depth reports over the course of the year, though here is an initial peak under the hood for the upcoming season. We hope you will find this Early Read report, both fun and informative, and look forward to sharing the rest of If you have questions or comments, please can contact ray.trosan@mullen.com

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  • 1. REPORT I 2010 Fall TV Momentum June 2010
  • 2. As television ratings continue to decrease, and their costs continue to escalate, it is more important than ever to deploy your brand dollars with more data and precision. As a result, we have developed FORESIGHT, a sophisticated tool that aggregates and assesses digital chatter surrounding new television programs. The volume and sentiment behind the discussion will provide us with an early window of how well shows will fare before their formal launch, predicting their chance of success or failure. FORESIGHT is a comprehensive report utilizing Internet debates, forums, discussion boards, blogs, Twitter, Facebook, Digg, and news groups. This tool will not only provide a guide as to what shows to back, but will provide insights for more innovative brand associations by identifying the most popular, or significant, characters, sections and moods within a program. FORESIGHT Reports for the new television season will be released in three intervals: REPORT I: POST UPFRONT MOMENTUM REPORT Timing: June Content: Early Read, after May program announcements REPORT II: FALL SEASON REPORT Timing: August/Early September Content: Identify breakouts and failures REPORT III: MID SEASON REPLACEMENT REPORT Timing: November/December Content: Early read on January/Mid-Season replacements 2
  • 3. Report timing is based on the volume of digital discussion. Overall, in the early part of this period, there tends to be fewer people generating messages as show pilots are still accessible only to a select few. This chatter then declines in subsequent months following the new show announcements. As the season begins to ramp up in late summer and with more multi-media promotional support, we will see an increase in volume of messages as expectations and excitement rise, and as a result, we can predict the success and failure more accurately. Three key peaks for online chatter drive report timing: 4000 REPORT II 3500 3000 REPORT III 2500 NEW FALL SHOWS 2000 ANNOUNCED 1500 1000 REPORT I 500 0 May June July August September October November December 2009 Digital Chatter 2010 Digital Chatter 3
  • 4. INITIAL FINDINGS % New Show Mentions Since the network schedules were announced in May, NBC is substantially ahead in terms of overall buzz. After the collapse of FOX the Leno experiment, NBC has invested millions in programming CBS 10% this year, and its efforts have clearly paid off. FOX has the least NBC 14% 42% buzz, not surprising given its meager introduction of three new fall CW shows, and limited experimentation with its existing schedule. 17% ABC What is especially impressive is the buzz generated by The CW 17% with just two new shows which are clearly resonating with their core target of young females. Period: 5/16/10-6/13/10 4
  • 5. most DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS least DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ NBC The Event 10.8% ABC My Generation 2.7% CW Hellcats 8.4% ABC The Whole Truth 2.7% CW Nikita 8.3% ABC Body of Proof 2.3% NBC Chase 8.0% CBS The Defenders 2.3% NBC Undercovers 5.9% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 2.2% CBS Hawaii 5-0 5.3% NBC School Pride 2.2% NBC Outsourced 5.1% ABC Secret Millionaire 1.4% NBC Love Bites 4.9% CBS Mike & Molly 1.2% ABC No Ordinary Family 4.7% NBC Law & Order: LA 0.7% NBC Outlaw 4.4% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.6% 5
  • 6. BUZZ NBC has six shows within the Top Ten Most Discussed. The network’s adventure themed fall programming including The Event, Chase, and Undercovers, garnered numerous mentions, and its inventive scheduling of vertical genres each night: Action-Adventure on Mondays, Reality (Biggest Loser) Tuesdays, Procedural Drama Wednesdays and Sitcom Thursdays, is clearly generating consumer enthusiasm. No Ordinary Family Similarly, The CW’s Hellcats and Nikita, which represent the second and third most discussed shows, bode well for The CW this fall. CBS’s Hawaii 5-0 and ABC’s No Ordinary Family also generated much discussion. Hawaii 5-0 buzz is to be expected as it represents a revival of an old series that still has a lot of nostalgia and affinity. The biggest surprise on the least discussed list is CBS’s Twitter-originated show, $#*! My Dad Says. One would imagine that, given the writer’s (Justin Halpern) following online, and the inclusion of William Shatner, that it would have greater momentum. Law & Order: Los Angeles being close to the bottom of the list is not surprising; the Dick Wolf decade-long franchise already has multiple iterations, and has probably run its course. 6
  • 7. most most POSITIVE SENTIMENT NEGATIVE SENTIMENT NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ SENTIMENT NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ SENTIMENT POSITIVE NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE NBC Love Bites 4.9% 78% 22% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.6% 0% 100% CW Nikita 8.3% 74% 26% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 2.2% 16% 84% CW Hellcats 8.4% 69% 31% ABC Better Together 2.9% 25% 75% NBC Outlaw 4.4% 66% 34% FOX Lonestar 3.5% 28% 72% ABC Body of Proof 2.3% 63% 37% FOX Running Wilde 3.2% 31% 69% ABC Secret Millionaire 1.4% 62% 38% CBS Blue Bloods 3.5% 35% 65% ABC No Ordinary Family 4.7% 61% 39% CBS The Defenders 2.3% 36% 64% NBC Undercovers 5.9% 60% 40% NBC Outsourced 5.1% 38% 62% NBC The Event 10.8% 59% 41% FOX Raising Hope 2.8% 45% 55% NBC Chase 8.0% 57% 43% CBS Mike & Molly 1.2% 50% 50% SENTIMENT To gauge the most accurate read on success, we believe the key dynamic is not just buzz, but also sentiment. For example, NBC’s Love Bites may not generate the most digital conversations, but combining the show’s positive sentiment with its buzz, it looks likely that the show will be well-received. The two CW new shows, Nikita and Hellcats, perform well on both counts, high buzz factor and positive sentiment, and can thus be prognosticated to perform well this fall. NBC’s The Event, has the highest buzz, but somewhat mixed sentiment; yet with strong summer promotion, sentiment can be swung more in its favor to make it a Monday night contender for NBC. One show notable for its negative number is ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7 with 100% negative sentiment! One commentator even compared it to “an immature version of Homicide.” 7
  • 8. RECAP The early read shows a couple of key data points:  NBC is showing some early momentum and, as previously stated, their investment in premium programming seems to be paying off, based on initial buzz – and the network is in dire need of some good news  The CW only has two new shows, but seems to have a lot of traction; limited new programming also allows them to put all their promotional dollars behind them  FOX seems to be in real trouble having no buzz on new programming and two of their powerhouses American Idol and House are becoming long in the tooth  The jury is still out on CBS and ABC Please note that the above report is an indication of interest and not a fail safe prediction of the long-term success. Other factors, like how much promotional support each network places behind each show; in what time period it is allotted; the shows it is up against; lead-ins and lead-outs play key roles. 8

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