Transportation Stat   Courtney Quarles
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Transportation Stat Courtney Quarles

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Transportation Stat   Courtney Quarles Transportation Stat Courtney Quarles Presentation Transcript

  • Statistics of Transportation safety
    by Courtney Quarles
  • What is Probability?
    Two types of Probability:
    -Theoretical probability
    -Empirical probability
    Theoretical Probability:
    Applies to situations in which the sample space only contains equally likely outcomes, all of which are known.
    Empirical Probability:
    Applies to situations on which we observe the frequency of occurrence of an event.
  • Words to know
    Experiment: Any occurrence for which the outcome is uncertain, denoted by E.
    Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted by S.
    Computing Empirical Probability
    The empirical probability of event E is
    P(E) = Observed number of times E occurs
    Total number of observed occurrences
  • Probability of an Event Not Occurring
    The Probability of an event not occurring
    The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that it will occur.
    P(not) = 1 - P(E)
  • Or Probabilities with Mutually Exclusive Events
    Mutually Exclusive events
    If it is impossible for events A and B to occur simultaneously, the events are said to be mutually exclusive.
    Or Probabilities with mutually Exclusive Events
    If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
    P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
  • What is the probability of not dying on an airplane?
    P (not) = 1 - P(E)
    P (not dying in airplane) = 1- P (not dying in airplane)
    P = 1 - (1/11,000,000)
    P = 0.9999999091
  • What is the probability of not dying on a Motorcycle?
    P (not) = 1 - P(E)
    P (not dying in motorcycle) = 1 – P (not dying in motorcycle)
    P = 1 – (1/1020)
    P = 0.9990196078
  • What is the probability of not getting struck by a metro bus?
    P(not) = 1 - P(E)
    P(not dying bicycling accident) = 1 - P(not dying in bicycle accident )
    P = 1 – (1/4919)
    P = 0.9997967066
  • What is the probability of dying on the subway metro bus?
    P (not) = 1 - P(E)
    P (not dying on the subway) = 1- P (not dying on the subway)
  • What is the probability of dying in a Motor vehicle?
    P (not) = 1 - P(E)
    P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) = 1- P (not dying in motor vehicle accident)
    P = 1 - (1/84)
    P = 0.9880952381
  • Works Cited
    Odds of Dying in Plane Crash. 2009. 6 December 2009.
    <http://www.rc-trucks.org/odds-of-dying-in-plane-crash.htm>
    Britt, Robert Roy. “The Odds of Dying.” 2009. 5 December 2009. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html>
     
    Kebabjian, Richard. “Plane crash Info.” 2009.
    http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
    Bureau Of Transportation Statistics. 2009. 6 December 2009.
    <http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html>