13th Annual Wealth Creation Study
2003-2008
By Raamdeo Agrawal
December 19, 2008
www.motilaloswal.com13th
Annual Wealth Creation Study 2
Discussion Points
• 13th
Wealth Creation Study Findings
• Theme 20...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 3
13th
Annual Wealth Creation Study
Concept of Wealth Creation:
The ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 4
Wealth Creation Study - Methodology
Wealth Creators:
Though Rs 100...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 5
The 10 Biggest Wealth Creators
Rank  Company Net Wealth Created Pr...
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The 10 Fastest Wealth Creators
Rank Company Price Price Mkt Cap (R...
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The Most Consistent Wealth Creators
Rank Company
Appeared in last ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 8
Wealthex v/s Sensex (2003-2008)
  Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 9
Wealth Creation by Industry
Industry (No of cos.) Wealth Created (...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 10
165
103 99
74
51 57
3333
< 200 200-500 500-1,000 1,000-
2,000
2,0...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 11
Wealth Creation by Earnings Growth
2003-08 Earnings Growth Range ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 12
Wealth Creation based on ROE
Price CAGRby ROE in 2003
92
56
32
15...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 13
Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters
P/E
(x) No. of companies
...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 14
Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters
Price/Book
(x)
No. of
com...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 15
Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters
Watch out forPrice /Sales...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 16
Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters
Paybackof less than 1x – ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 17
“There is absolutely no substitute forpaying right price.
In the ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 18
Theme 2009
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 19
Warren Buffett says –
“Think of three types of savings accounts.
...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 20
Great, Good, Gruesome – Graphical Representation
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 21
Great companies –
• Require very little incremental capital for g...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 22
Great, Good, Gruesome – Characteristics
Criteria Great Good Grues...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 23
Great, Good, Gruesome – Characteristics (contd.)
Criteria Great G...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 24
Great, Good, Gruesome – Typical Financial Profile
  Nestle HDFC B...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 25
Great, Good, Gruesome – Typical Financial Profile
Nestle, HDFC Ba...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 26
Key takeaways -
• Great companies are fountains of dividends
• Go...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 27
Two Greats – See’s Candy vs Nestle India
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 28
Key takeaways -
• Both have deployed very little incremental capi...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 29
Great investments are the result of huge
margin of safety at the ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 30
Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix
* Margin of safe...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 31
Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix
Best investment ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 32
Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix
Benjamin Graham ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 33
Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix
CharlierMungeron...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 34
Market Outlook
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 35
Corporate SectorProfit Growth May TaperOff
Corporate Profits To G...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 36
Sensex EPS growth may flatten
81
129
181
250 266 291 278 280
216 ...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 37
Interest rates are headed lower
14.0
5.6
7.9
2.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 38
Market P/E is close to its all-time lows
11.5
1,700
6,700
11,700
...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 39
Earnings Yield to Bond Yield is comfortable
1.6
1.4
1.6
0.2
0.7
1...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 40
Market Cap as % to GDPis off its highs
28
23
43
54
85
109
55
37
1...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 41
• Understanding of Great, Good and Gruesome companies is
critical...
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Annual Wealth Creation Study 42
ThankYou & Happy Wealth Creating !!
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Wealth Creation Study 2003-2008

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The most special feature of MOSt Research is the Wealth Creation Report. It is work of the foremost value investor in India and the joint MD and promoter– Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal. An equity research stalwart, Mr. Agrawal analyses the most consistent, the fastest and the biggest value creators in the Indian equity universe every year. Though the study is done every year, the report is timeless in its use. The report is unveiled at a special annual function, where the best are felicitated. The Wealth Creation Report is available on request as soft copy or printed format

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  • Wealth Creation Study 2003-2008

    1. 1. 13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 2003-2008 By Raamdeo Agrawal December 19, 2008
    2. 2. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 2 Discussion Points • 13th Wealth Creation Study Findings • Theme 2009: Great, Good, Gruesome • Market Outlook
    3. 3. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 3 13th Annual Wealth Creation Study Concept of Wealth Creation: The process by which a company enhances market value of the capital entrusted to it by its shareholders Net Wealth Created: Change in Market Cap over the study period adjusted for corporate actions
    4. 4. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 4 Wealth Creation Study - Methodology Wealth Creators: Though Rs 100 crores of net wealth created is the qualifying criteria, the top 100th wealth creating company managed Rs 4,000 crores.
    5. 5. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 5 The 10 Biggest Wealth Creators Rank  Company Net Wealth Created Price Price PAT Rs crores % Share Apprec. (x) CAGR(%) CAGR(%) 1 Reliance Inds 307,727 12.1 10.1 58.7 36.5 2 ONGC 159,336 6.3 4.1 32.8 9.7 3 Bharti Airtel 150,478 5.9 29.2 96.4 L to P 4 NMDC 135,554 5.3 115.0 158.3 59.8 5 MMTC 108,409 4.3 193.9 186.8 51.6 6 BHEL 95,204 3.7 18.4 79.1 45.1 7 L&T 81,259 3.2 32.8 100.9 38.1 8 SAIL 72,674 2.9 21.0 83.8 L to P 9 State Bank 70,064 2.8 6.3 44.4 16.7 10 ITC 61,682 2.4 4.9 37.5 17.9   Total of above 1,242,387 48.9         Total of top 100 2,539,047    Dominance of commodities
    6. 6. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 6 The 10 Fastest Wealth Creators Rank Company Price Price Mkt Cap (Rs crores)     Apprec. (x) CAGR(%) 2008 2003 1 Unitech 837 284 44,830 54 2 Jai Corp 316 216 9,186 28 3 MMTC 194 187 108,971 562 4 Financial Tech 164 177 7,359 36 5 BF Utilities 152 173 4,001 26 6 Aban Offshore 118 160 11,433 94 7 NMDC 115 158 136,743 1,189 8 Godrej Inds 108 155 8,294 70 9 Sesa Goa 102 152 12,321 121 10 REI Agro 99 150 7,078 44 Nothing is more profitable than investing in an early stage bubble
    7. 7. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 7 The Most Consistent Wealth Creators Rank Company Appeared in last 10 WC Studies (x) 10 Yr Price CAGR (%) 1 Infosys Tech. 10 25.7 2 Hero Honda Motor 10 16.5 3 Ranbaxy Labs 10 8.7 4 Sun Pharma 9 46.0 5 Reliance Inds 9 40.5 6 HDFC 9 40.2 7 Cipla 9 21.8 8 Satyam Computer 9 19.2 9 Piramal Healthcare 9 16.6 10 ITC 9 13.9 Non-cyclicality of business is key for consistent wealth creation
    8. 8. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 8 Wealthex v/s Sensex (2003-2008)   Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 CAGR               (%) BSE Sensex 3,049 5,591 6,493 11,280 13,072 15,644 38.7 Yo Y (% ) 8 3. 4 1 6 . 1 7 3. 7 1 5. 9 1 9 . 7   Wealthex - rebased 3,049 6,470 8,019 13,724 15,680 22,987 49.8 Yo Y (% ) 1 1 2. 2 23. 9 7 1 . 1 1 4. 2 46 . 6   Sensex EPS (Rs) 272 348 450 523 718 833 25.1 Yo Y (% )   27 . 9 29 . 3 1 6 . 2 37 . 4 1 6 . 0   Sensex PE (x) 11.2 16.1 14.4 21.6 18.2 18.8   Wealthex EPS (Rs) 386 487 641 719 977 1,228 26.1 Yo Y (% )   26 . 3 31 . 6 1 2. 2 35. 9 25. 7   Wealthex PE (x) 7.9 13.3 12.5 19.1 16.0 18.7   Wealth Creators – higher EPS growth, lower P/E, higher appreciation
    9. 9. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 9 Wealth Creation by Industry Industry (No of cos.) Wealth Created (Rs cr) Share (%) Oil & Gas (8) 582,623 22.9 Metals (13) 441,617 17.4 Banking & Finance (15) 328,235 12.9 Engineering (10) 260,328 10.3 Telecom (2) 163,638 6.4 IT (5) 123,365 4.9 FMCG (6) 118,049 4.6 Pharma (8) 73,292 2.9 Auto (7) 68,033 2.7 Ultility (4) 63,519 2.5 Cement (4) 52,733 2.1 Construction / Real Estate (2) 49,076 1.9 Media (2) 14,657 0.6 Retail (2) 9,580 0.4 Others (12) 190,301 7.5 Total 2,539,047 100.0 Commodities may give way to users of commodities going forward
    10. 10. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 10 165 103 99 74 51 57 3333 < 200 200-500 500-1,000 1,000- 2,000 2,000- 5,000 5,000- 10,000 10,000- 20,000 > 20,000 Avg Price CAGR: 50% Wealth Creation by Mcap (Base Year) Price CAGRby Base YearMCap 2003 Market Cap Range (Rs crores) Rapidly growing and deregulating Indian economy will produce many young and fast-growing enterprises
    11. 11. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 11 Wealth Creation by Earnings Growth 2003-08 Earnings Growth Range (%) Price CAGRby Earnings Growth Range : Hig he r the be tte r 27 49 67 108 98 43 45 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-70 >70 Avg Price CAGR: 50% Markets are unable to fully price in hypergrowth
    12. 12. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 12 Wealth Creation based on ROE Price CAGRby ROE in 2003 92 56 32 15 39 36 77 61 <5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-40 >40 Avg Price CAGR: 50% Bargains Risk-reward balance Bargains are found when markets are blind to change 2003 ROE Range (%)
    13. 13. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 13 Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters P/E (x) No. of companies % Wealth Created Price CAGR % <5 36 41 55 5-10 27 26 57 10-15 18 18 59 15-20 7 5 25 >20 12 11 37 Total 100 100 50 High margin of safety in single digit P/Es
    14. 14. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 14 Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters Price/Book (x) No. of companies % Wealth Created Price CAGR % <1 47 34 67 1-2 32 49 54 >2 21 17 30 Total 100 100 50 Price /Bookof less than 2x – 83% of wealth created
    15. 15. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 15 Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters Watch out forPrice /Sales < 1 Price/Sales (x) No. of companies % Wealth Created Price CAGR % <0.25 19 15 66 0.25-0.5 19 13 63 0.5-1.0 28 37 62 1-2 14 18 47 >2 20 17 30 Total 100 100 50
    16. 16. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 16 Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters Paybackof less than 1x – 84% of wealth created Payback Ratio No. of companies % Wealth Created Price CAGR % <0.25 22 18 116 0.25-0.5 28 19 59 0.5-1.0 32 48 50 1-2 9 10 38 >2 9 6 22 Total 100 100 50
    17. 17. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 17 “There is absolutely no substitute forpaying right price. In the Bible, it says that love covers a multitude of sins. Well, in the investing field, price covers a multitude of mistakes. Forhuman beings, there is no substitute forlove. Forinvesting there is no substitute forpaying right price – absolutely none.” — VanDenBerg, OID, April 2004 Wealth Creation by Valuation Parameters
    18. 18. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 18 Theme 2009
    19. 19. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 19 Warren Buffett says – “Think of three types of savings accounts. • The Great one pays an extraordinarily high interest rate that will rise as the years pass. • The Good one pays an attractive rate of interest that will be earned also on deposits that are added. • Finally, the Gruesome account both pays an inadequate interest rate and requires you to keep adding money at those disappointing returns.” Great, Good, Gruesome – Definition
    20. 20. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 20 Great, Good, Gruesome – Graphical Representation
    21. 21. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 21 Great companies – • Require very little incremental capital for growth • High and steadily rising RoE Good companies – • “Put up more to earn more” phenomenon Gruesome companies • Consume lot of capital • Earn little or no money Great, Good, Gruesome – Key difference
    22. 22. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 22 Great, Good, Gruesome – Characteristics Criteria Great Good Gruesome Competitive advantage High and rising long- term competitive advantage from brand / low-cost production Steady competitive advantage Low or no competitive advantage Nature of business Stable business i.e. no rapid or continuous change Subject to moderate change Business likely to have rapid changes Pricing power High Moderate Absent Management Low dependence on greatness of management Management, key success factor High dependence on management Growth Typically moderate growth; high growth rates a rarity Moderate-to-high growth rate High growth rates
    23. 23. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 23 Great, Good, Gruesome – Characteristics (contd.) Criteria Great Good Gruesome Capital intensity Low capital intensity; high level of intangible assets Moderate-to-high capital intensity Very high capital intensity RoE Very high and rising RoE Stable and attractive RoE Low / falling RoE Dividend payout Typically high Moderate Low or no payout Examples Hero Honda, Nestle, GSK Pharma, Infosys HDFC Bank, L&T, BHEL, Tata Steel Tata Tele (Mah), Jet Airways, Arvind
    24. 24. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 24 Great, Good, Gruesome – Typical Financial Profile   Nestle HDFC Bank Tata Tele   (Great) (Good) (Gruesome) 10-yearCAGR(%) - Sales 10.0 44.0 101.0 PAT 19.0 39.0 Loss to Loss Capital Empd (Rs cr) -109 * 11,158 1,742 RoE (%) -       Latest 102.5 17.7 NWeroded 10 years ago 36.4 26.4 -10.3 10-yearincr. RoE 230.0 14.0 Not calculable         In last 10 years -       Cumulative PAT (Rs cr) 2,231 5,875 -2,670 Total Dividend (Rs cr) 1,818 1,205 0.0 Average Payout (%) 81.0 21.0 0.0 * Net worth
    25. 25. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 25 Great, Good, Gruesome – Typical Financial Profile Nestle, HDFC Bank, Tata Tele (Mah) – ROE Trend -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net worth eroded from 2005 Tata Tele (Mah) HDFC Bank Nestle
    26. 26. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 26 Key takeaways - • Great companies are fountains of dividends • Good companies are fountains of earnings • Gruesome companies are bottomless pits of capital consumption Great, Good, Gruesome – Typical Financial Profile
    27. 27. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 27 Two Greats – See’s Candy vs Nestle India
    28. 28. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 28 Key takeaways - • Both have deployed very little incremental capital • Incremental PAT / Capital Employed is high for both • Both are proving to be huge cash machines • At 21.4%, Nestle’s return is same as 21.7% for See’s • Main difference: In Nestle’s case, much of the return is by way of earnings growth, whereas in See’s it is by way of earnings yield (i.e. higher margin of safety) Two Greats – See’s Candy vs Nestle India
    29. 29. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 29 Great investments are the result of huge margin of safety at the time of purchase Benjamin Grahamon margin of safety • “It is a favorable difference between price [paid] and indicated or appraised value.” • “The function of margin of safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future.” • “Margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.” Great companies need not be great investments
    30. 30. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 30 Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix * Margin of safety Nestle Hero Honda NoneSBI, IOC HDFC Bank
    31. 31. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 31 Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix Best investment strategy • Buy good companies at great price, or • Buy great companies at good price
    32. 32. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 32 Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix Benjamin Graham on good- and low-quality stocks • The risk of paying too high a price for good-quality stocks is not the chief hazard … • … chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.
    33. 33. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 33 Great, Good, Gruesome – Investment Payoff Matrix CharlierMungeron high- and low-quality businesses • Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. • If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return – even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. • Conversely, if a business earnings 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.
    34. 34. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 34 Market Outlook
    35. 35. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 35 Corporate SectorProfit Growth May TaperOff Corporate Profits To GDP(%) : At alltim e hig hs 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.2 3.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 3.1 4.4 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.0 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E Mean: 3.3
    36. 36. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 36 Sensex EPS growth may flatten 81 129 181 250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272 348 450 523 718 833 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY93-98: 29% CAGR FY98-03: -1% CAGR FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY93-08: 17% CAGR Sensex EPS Growth: Re ve rsio n to m e an like ly
    37. 37. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 37 Interest rates are headed lower 14.0 5.6 7.9 2.1 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 10-Year India G-Sec Yield (%) 10 Year US G-Sec Yield (%)
    38. 38. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 38 Market P/E is close to its all-time lows 11.5 1,700 6,700 11,700 16,700 21,700 Dec-08 Dec-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Dec-03 Dec-02 Dec-01 Dec-00 Dec-99 Dec-98 Dec-97 Dec-96 Dec-95 Dec-94 Dec-93 0 10 20 30 40 Sensex P/E(LHS) Sensex (RHS) 15 Year Median P/E: 15.6x
    39. 39. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 39 Earnings Yield to Bond Yield is comfortable 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 15 Year Avg is 0.73x
    40. 40. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 40 Market Cap as % to GDPis off its highs 28 23 43 54 85 109 55 37 19 44 26 26 85 51 34 43 24 54 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E Mean: 46
    41. 41. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 41 • Understanding of Great, Good and Gruesome companies is critical to investment success. • Great time to buy Great companies (perpetual bonds) at reasonable prices, as interest rates are likely to remain low for quite some time. • Gruesome companies are best avoided. • Market is likely to see a sector churn – dominance of commodities will probably give way to users of commodities. • Corporate profit boom of last five years is unlikely to continue. However, we have probably seen the market bottom at Sensex levels of 7,700. In Conclusion
    42. 42. www.motilaloswal.com13th Annual Wealth Creation Study 42 ThankYou & Happy Wealth Creating !!

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