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Introduction
1) What is Japan’s Basic Security Policy?
2) How has Japan’s political decision-making impacted
   its security policy since the Gulf War?
3) How have Japan’s military capabilities changed since
   the Gulf War?
4) What are the implications of the evolution of Japan’s
   political decision-making and military capabilities for
   Japanese security policy in the next 10 years?
Conclusion
Japan’s basic security policy will fundamentally be
unchanged in the next 10 years. Its defense posture will
remain defensive and restrained.

The future direction of Japanese security policy:
1 Japan will gradually and practically orient its posture on
   national security to the international security
   environment within the framework of its basic security
   policy.
2 Japan’s security relations with the U.S. will be gradually
   and steadily adjusted to its national security posture.
3 Japan may adopt a limited offensive strategy consistent
   with its basic security policy.
Article 9
1) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on
   justice and order, the Japanese people forever
   renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and
   the threat or use of force as means of settling
   international disputes.
2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding
   paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other
   war potential, will never be maintained. The right of
   belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
Basic Policy for National Defense
1) To support UN activities and promote international
   cooperation, thereby contributing to the realization of world
   peace.
2) To promote public welfare and enhance the people’s love for
   their country, thereby establishing a sound basis essential for
   Japan’s security.
3) To incrementally develop effective defense capabilities
   necessary for self-defense in accordance with the nation’s
   resources and prevailing domestic situation.
4) To deal with external aggression on the basis of the Japan-
   U.S. security arrangements pending the effective capacity of
   the UN in the future to deter and repel such aggression.
Other basic security policies
   1) Exclusively defense-oriented policy
   2) Not becoming a military power
   3) Adherence to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles
   4) Ensuring civilian control of the military


The constitution (article 9)   Basic Policy for National Defense


           “Japan’s Basic Security Policy”

              Other basic security policies
The Evolution of Political Decision-making 1/4
Persian Gulf War of 1991
• Japan started to change its posture toward
  international security issues.
   – Dispatch of the MSDF minesweepers

Peace Keeping Operations (PKO)
• Japan tried to realistically enhance its role in PKOs
  within the limits of Japanese public understanding.
   – International Peace Cooperation Law in June 1992.
      • Restrictions
The Evolution of Political Decision-making 2/4
Response to international terrorism
• Japanese public opinion came to understand to the use of the
  SDF which was within legal limits.
   – Protect U.S. bases and sensitive Japanese facilities
   – SDF in the Indian Ocean
   – Restraint
North Korea
• Japanese public are very concerned about the various
  ongoing difficulties and imminent threats posed by North
  Korea:
   – Teapodong-1                    -Japan's MD system
   – Nuclear program                -a threat to Japan
   – Suspicious boats              -a big impact
   – North Korean abductions       -an act of terrorism in Japan
The Evolution of Political Decision-making 3/4

Iraq Dispatch
• Japan clearly stated its support for the U.S. rather than a
  UN-authorized mandate.
   – Created a bill to dispatch SDF troops to Iraq
      • Help U.S. and other foreign forces
      • Humanitarian and reconstruction assistance
      • Restrictions
• Permanent legal framework to allow the dispatch of SDF
  troops overseas.
   – 12 years?
The Evolution of Political Decision-making 4/4
Japan-US Political Relationship
• Steadily continued to evolve their political relations.
   – “Strategy for the East Asia Pacific Region” in 1995
   – The Japan-U.S. Joint Declaration on Security in 1996
      • The three bills on ensuring the effectiveness of the
        Guideline for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation in
        1999
         – Restrictions
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 1/7
• The SDF gradually oriented their capabilities to the
  Japan’s national security circumstance.
   – New defense strategy aimed to address the
     increase of new types of threats.
   – Japanese politicians discuss how to utilize Japan’s
     military capabilities to address these new threats.
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 2/7
GSDF capabilities
• GSDF has tried to orient their capabilities to the
  national security circumstances.
   – Operations to counter landing of invading forces
      • Long range strike capability
      • Transportation capability
   – Prepare new assets oriented to the Japan’s current
     national security circumstance.
      • Western Infantry Regiment
      • New organization for ???
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 3/7
MSDF capabilities
• MSDF reinforced overseas and air defense capabilities
  according to Japan’s national security circumstances
   – Decreased ships
   – Increased standard displacement (Explain)
   – Limited but practical overseas capabilities in 2003
   – Suspicious boats
      • New missile boats
      • Special boarding units
   – Two additional Aegis destroyers with improved air
     defense capabilities.
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 4/7

ASDF capabilities
• Reinforced traditional capabilities and acquired new
  capabilities according to Japan’s national security
  circumstances.
   – The reinforcement of equipment quality
      • Ability to use AWACS for air operations.
   – Reinforced air strike capabilities for F-2 and F-4EJK
      • Why F-4EJK?
   – KC-767
      • Air refueling capability
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 5/7
Other military capabilities (MD system and Satellite)
• Japan still should depend on U.S. military power for its
  national security
• MD system
   – 4 basic phases in MD
   – No capabilities in Japan
   – The Missile Defense Joint Task Force
   – The exertion of collective security
• Intelligence-gathering satellites
   – Monitor North Korea
   – Still depend on U.S. satellites?
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 6/7
General Experience of the SDF
• The SDF has acquired much experience in international
  security since 1991.
   – 11 operations 5,313 personnel since 1992 to today
      • No SDF personnel causality by military actions
   – The participation in UN PKOs has been one of the
     major pillars in the SDF.
The Evolution of Military Capabilities 7/7
The U.S.-Japan military relationship
• The bilateral security relationship has strengthened
  gradually since 1991
   – The contents of bilateral training are more practical
      • GSDF
         – Combat training for a guerrilla-commando or
           special operation unit assault
      • MSDF
         – RIMPAC since 1980
         – MSDF’s interoperability
      • ASDF
         – Cope North Exercise at Guam since 1999
         – Cope Thunder Exercise at Alaska in June 2003
Conclusion 1/4
• Japan’s basic security policy will fundamentally be
  unchanged in the next 10 years. Its posture will remain
  defensive and restrained.
   – Japan has not ever changed its basic security policy.
   – All of Japan’s past security activities have been
     based on its basic security policy.
Conclusion 2/4
1 Japan will gradually and practically orient its posture on
   national security to the international security
   environment within the framework of its basic security
   policy.
• Reasonable interpretation of Japan’s basic security policy
   – A permanent legal framework to dispatch SDF troops overseas
      • Restrictions on “the use of arms.”
   – The 2003 defense white paper A landmark (Clarify)
• Japan does not need to hastily change its basic security policy.
   – Japan has kept its defensive and restrained attitude
   – Japan should exploit the right capabilities in the right places
     (Clarify).
Conclusion 3/4
2 Japan’s security relations with the U.S. will be gradually
   and steadily adjusted to its national security posture.
• There are still some political and military problems
    – No critical problems
• To keep the currently close relationship in the future
    – Need time and patience
    – Need to clarify each country’s role
Conclusion 4/4

3 Japan may adopt a limited offensive strategy consistent
   with its basic security policy.

• The right to adapt a limited offensive strategy
• Overseas capabilities, and advanced strike capabilities
• Limited offensive strategy will be restrained
Table 1. What do you think about the participation of SDF? (Question
                           needs clarification)
Response                                          Percent

                                          1991               2003

Yes                                       45%                70%

No                                        39%                13%

Cannot Tell                               11%                 8%

Don't know                                 5%                 9%
Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. Public poll in
   1991 and 2003.
Table 2. Number of Tanks and Major Artillery in GSDF
                               approximate Number
       Type           Model            Owned           Comparison Remarks
                                 1991        2003
Recoilless guns                     3430        3190          -7%
Mortars                             1500        1880         25%
Field artillery                      830         750         -10%
Rocket launchers                     110        1700       1545%
Anti-aircraft
                                     130         110         -15%
  machineguns
Armored vehicles                     690         980         42%
Total Tanks                         1210        1022         -15%
                      Type90            40       242        600%

Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
Table 3. Number of Helicopter and others in GSDF
                                             approximate
      Use Type               Model           Number Owned          comparison    Remarks
                                           1991        2003
Anti-tank Helicopter     AH-1S                    55          89         60%
Observation
                         OH-1                      0          16
  Helicopter                                                                2%
                         OH-6D                 174        162
Transport Helicopter CH-47J/JA                    18          49
                         V-107A                   39           1
Utility Helicopter       UH-60JA                  0           21         20%

                         UH-1H/J               133        157

                                                       since
Anti-ship Missile        Type88 SSM-1              0                  new
                                                         1991
Surface to surface                                     since
                         MLRS (M270)              0                   new
   rocket                                                1992
 Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
Table 4. Number of Ships in MSDF
                          approximate Number Owned
         Class                                             comparison
                              1991             2003
Destroyer                 61(169,000t)     54(203,000t)    -12%(20%)
Submarine                  14(31,000t)      16(40,000t)     14%(29%)
Mine warfare ship          41(19,000t)      31(27,000t)    -25%(42%)
Patrol combatant craft     13(1,000t)        7(1,000t)      -47%(0%)
Amphibious ship            9(12,000t)       8(30,000t)     -12%(250%)
Auxiliary ship             32(87,000t)      26(97,000t)    -19%(11%)
Total                     170(319,000t)   142(398,000t)    -16%(25%)


Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
Table 5. Number of Special Ships in MSDF
                                              Number Owned
     Use Type           Name of Class                                Comparison    Remarks
                                               1991       2003
Aegis type
                  Kongo Class (7250t)                 0          4      new
   Destroyer
Destroyer         Murasame Class (4550t)              0      11         new
                  Shirane Class (5200t)               4          4            0%
Minesweeper
                  Uraga Class (5650t)                 0          2      new
   (Ocean)
Minesweeper
                  Hatsushima Class (440t)         23         11           -53%
   (Coastal)
                  Sugashima Class (510t)              0      17         new
Amphibious Ship   Osumi Class (8900t)                 0          3      new
                  Miura Class (2000t)                 4          2        -50%
Supply Ship       New type class (13500t)             0          0   (2004 Mar)
                  Towada Class (8100t)                1          3        300%
Missile boat      Hayabusa Class (200t)               0          3      new
                  1-GO Class (50t)                    0          3      new

  Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
Table 6. Number of Aircraft in MSDF
                                       Number
                                        Owned
      Use Type             Model                     comparison   Remarks
                                     1991    2003

Patrol (Fixed Wing)      P-3C           65      99
                                                            32%
                         P-2J           10       0

Patrol (Helicopter)      SH-60J          0      91
                                                            20%
                         HSS-2B         81       6
Minesweeping and
                         MH-53E          6      10          66%
  transport

Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
Table 7. Number of Aircraft and Missile in ASDF
                                                 Number Owned
        Use Type                   Model                                comparison    Remarks
                                                  1991       2003
Combat Fighter              F-15J/DJ                 143        203           41%      (AR)
                            F-4EJ/ (F-4EJK*)     124 (30)    92 (85)         -26%      (AR)
Fighter Bomber              F-2A/B                       0       40        new         (AR)
                            F-1                       74         26          -65%
Reconnaissance              RF-4E/EJ                  13         27          207%      (AR)
Transport Aircraft          C-1                       27         26           -4%
                            C-130                     15         16              6%
Transport Helicopter        CH-47                     10         17           70%
Early warning               E-2C                         8       13           63%
Early warning and
                            E-767                        0          4      new
   control
Air Refueling Aircraft      KC-767                       0          0     none          (4)
                            Patriot (PAC-3)
                                                                           new
                            Patriot (PAC-2)                   24FU
SAM
                            Patriot (PAC-1)        12FU
                            NIKE                   10FU
*F-4EJK: Modified F-4EJ has F-15's Central Computer and F-16A's AI Radar
The Range of Ballistic Missiles




                                                        Nodong

Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense                Teapodong-1
White Paper. in 2003.                                   Teapodong-2
BMD Architecture
  SPACE
 SENCER
                                   Intercept by SM-3


                Detect & Track                               Intercept by PAC-3


                                                     Central
                                                 Operation Center


                                 Ground Radar

 Ballistic Missile                                                     ASDF
                                                                       Patriot
                                                  MSDF
                                                Aegis DDG

Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 2003.

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Japan's basic security policy [compatibility mode]

  • 1. Introduction 1) What is Japan’s Basic Security Policy? 2) How has Japan’s political decision-making impacted its security policy since the Gulf War? 3) How have Japan’s military capabilities changed since the Gulf War? 4) What are the implications of the evolution of Japan’s political decision-making and military capabilities for Japanese security policy in the next 10 years?
  • 2. Conclusion Japan’s basic security policy will fundamentally be unchanged in the next 10 years. Its defense posture will remain defensive and restrained. The future direction of Japanese security policy: 1 Japan will gradually and practically orient its posture on national security to the international security environment within the framework of its basic security policy. 2 Japan’s security relations with the U.S. will be gradually and steadily adjusted to its national security posture. 3 Japan may adopt a limited offensive strategy consistent with its basic security policy.
  • 3. Article 9 1) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. 2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
  • 4. Basic Policy for National Defense 1) To support UN activities and promote international cooperation, thereby contributing to the realization of world peace. 2) To promote public welfare and enhance the people’s love for their country, thereby establishing a sound basis essential for Japan’s security. 3) To incrementally develop effective defense capabilities necessary for self-defense in accordance with the nation’s resources and prevailing domestic situation. 4) To deal with external aggression on the basis of the Japan- U.S. security arrangements pending the effective capacity of the UN in the future to deter and repel such aggression.
  • 5. Other basic security policies 1) Exclusively defense-oriented policy 2) Not becoming a military power 3) Adherence to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles 4) Ensuring civilian control of the military The constitution (article 9) Basic Policy for National Defense “Japan’s Basic Security Policy” Other basic security policies
  • 6. The Evolution of Political Decision-making 1/4 Persian Gulf War of 1991 • Japan started to change its posture toward international security issues. – Dispatch of the MSDF minesweepers Peace Keeping Operations (PKO) • Japan tried to realistically enhance its role in PKOs within the limits of Japanese public understanding. – International Peace Cooperation Law in June 1992. • Restrictions
  • 7. The Evolution of Political Decision-making 2/4 Response to international terrorism • Japanese public opinion came to understand to the use of the SDF which was within legal limits. – Protect U.S. bases and sensitive Japanese facilities – SDF in the Indian Ocean – Restraint North Korea • Japanese public are very concerned about the various ongoing difficulties and imminent threats posed by North Korea: – Teapodong-1 -Japan's MD system – Nuclear program -a threat to Japan – Suspicious boats -a big impact – North Korean abductions -an act of terrorism in Japan
  • 8. The Evolution of Political Decision-making 3/4 Iraq Dispatch • Japan clearly stated its support for the U.S. rather than a UN-authorized mandate. – Created a bill to dispatch SDF troops to Iraq • Help U.S. and other foreign forces • Humanitarian and reconstruction assistance • Restrictions • Permanent legal framework to allow the dispatch of SDF troops overseas. – 12 years?
  • 9. The Evolution of Political Decision-making 4/4 Japan-US Political Relationship • Steadily continued to evolve their political relations. – “Strategy for the East Asia Pacific Region” in 1995 – The Japan-U.S. Joint Declaration on Security in 1996 • The three bills on ensuring the effectiveness of the Guideline for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation in 1999 – Restrictions
  • 10. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 1/7 • The SDF gradually oriented their capabilities to the Japan’s national security circumstance. – New defense strategy aimed to address the increase of new types of threats. – Japanese politicians discuss how to utilize Japan’s military capabilities to address these new threats.
  • 11. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 2/7 GSDF capabilities • GSDF has tried to orient their capabilities to the national security circumstances. – Operations to counter landing of invading forces • Long range strike capability • Transportation capability – Prepare new assets oriented to the Japan’s current national security circumstance. • Western Infantry Regiment • New organization for ???
  • 12. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 3/7 MSDF capabilities • MSDF reinforced overseas and air defense capabilities according to Japan’s national security circumstances – Decreased ships – Increased standard displacement (Explain) – Limited but practical overseas capabilities in 2003 – Suspicious boats • New missile boats • Special boarding units – Two additional Aegis destroyers with improved air defense capabilities.
  • 13. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 4/7 ASDF capabilities • Reinforced traditional capabilities and acquired new capabilities according to Japan’s national security circumstances. – The reinforcement of equipment quality • Ability to use AWACS for air operations. – Reinforced air strike capabilities for F-2 and F-4EJK • Why F-4EJK? – KC-767 • Air refueling capability
  • 14. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 5/7 Other military capabilities (MD system and Satellite) • Japan still should depend on U.S. military power for its national security • MD system – 4 basic phases in MD – No capabilities in Japan – The Missile Defense Joint Task Force – The exertion of collective security • Intelligence-gathering satellites – Monitor North Korea – Still depend on U.S. satellites?
  • 15. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 6/7 General Experience of the SDF • The SDF has acquired much experience in international security since 1991. – 11 operations 5,313 personnel since 1992 to today • No SDF personnel causality by military actions – The participation in UN PKOs has been one of the major pillars in the SDF.
  • 16. The Evolution of Military Capabilities 7/7 The U.S.-Japan military relationship • The bilateral security relationship has strengthened gradually since 1991 – The contents of bilateral training are more practical • GSDF – Combat training for a guerrilla-commando or special operation unit assault • MSDF – RIMPAC since 1980 – MSDF’s interoperability • ASDF – Cope North Exercise at Guam since 1999 – Cope Thunder Exercise at Alaska in June 2003
  • 17. Conclusion 1/4 • Japan’s basic security policy will fundamentally be unchanged in the next 10 years. Its posture will remain defensive and restrained. – Japan has not ever changed its basic security policy. – All of Japan’s past security activities have been based on its basic security policy.
  • 18. Conclusion 2/4 1 Japan will gradually and practically orient its posture on national security to the international security environment within the framework of its basic security policy. • Reasonable interpretation of Japan’s basic security policy – A permanent legal framework to dispatch SDF troops overseas • Restrictions on “the use of arms.” – The 2003 defense white paper A landmark (Clarify) • Japan does not need to hastily change its basic security policy. – Japan has kept its defensive and restrained attitude – Japan should exploit the right capabilities in the right places (Clarify).
  • 19. Conclusion 3/4 2 Japan’s security relations with the U.S. will be gradually and steadily adjusted to its national security posture. • There are still some political and military problems – No critical problems • To keep the currently close relationship in the future – Need time and patience – Need to clarify each country’s role
  • 20. Conclusion 4/4 3 Japan may adopt a limited offensive strategy consistent with its basic security policy. • The right to adapt a limited offensive strategy • Overseas capabilities, and advanced strike capabilities • Limited offensive strategy will be restrained
  • 21. Table 1. What do you think about the participation of SDF? (Question needs clarification) Response Percent 1991 2003 Yes 45% 70% No 39% 13% Cannot Tell 11% 8% Don't know 5% 9% Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. Public poll in 1991 and 2003.
  • 22. Table 2. Number of Tanks and Major Artillery in GSDF approximate Number Type Model Owned Comparison Remarks 1991 2003 Recoilless guns 3430 3190 -7% Mortars 1500 1880 25% Field artillery 830 750 -10% Rocket launchers 110 1700 1545% Anti-aircraft 130 110 -15% machineguns Armored vehicles 690 980 42% Total Tanks 1210 1022 -15% Type90 40 242 600% Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
  • 23. Table 3. Number of Helicopter and others in GSDF approximate Use Type Model Number Owned comparison Remarks 1991 2003 Anti-tank Helicopter AH-1S 55 89 60% Observation OH-1 0 16 Helicopter 2% OH-6D 174 162 Transport Helicopter CH-47J/JA 18 49 V-107A 39 1 Utility Helicopter UH-60JA 0 21 20% UH-1H/J 133 157 since Anti-ship Missile Type88 SSM-1 0 new 1991 Surface to surface since MLRS (M270) 0 new rocket 1992 Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
  • 24. Table 4. Number of Ships in MSDF approximate Number Owned Class comparison 1991 2003 Destroyer 61(169,000t) 54(203,000t) -12%(20%) Submarine 14(31,000t) 16(40,000t) 14%(29%) Mine warfare ship 41(19,000t) 31(27,000t) -25%(42%) Patrol combatant craft 13(1,000t) 7(1,000t) -47%(0%) Amphibious ship 9(12,000t) 8(30,000t) -12%(250%) Auxiliary ship 32(87,000t) 26(97,000t) -19%(11%) Total 170(319,000t) 142(398,000t) -16%(25%) Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
  • 25. Table 5. Number of Special Ships in MSDF Number Owned Use Type Name of Class Comparison Remarks 1991 2003 Aegis type Kongo Class (7250t) 0 4 new Destroyer Destroyer Murasame Class (4550t) 0 11 new Shirane Class (5200t) 4 4 0% Minesweeper Uraga Class (5650t) 0 2 new (Ocean) Minesweeper Hatsushima Class (440t) 23 11 -53% (Coastal) Sugashima Class (510t) 0 17 new Amphibious Ship Osumi Class (8900t) 0 3 new Miura Class (2000t) 4 2 -50% Supply Ship New type class (13500t) 0 0 (2004 Mar) Towada Class (8100t) 1 3 300% Missile boat Hayabusa Class (200t) 0 3 new 1-GO Class (50t) 0 3 new Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
  • 26. Table 6. Number of Aircraft in MSDF Number Owned Use Type Model comparison Remarks 1991 2003 Patrol (Fixed Wing) P-3C 65 99 32% P-2J 10 0 Patrol (Helicopter) SH-60J 0 91 20% HSS-2B 81 6 Minesweeping and MH-53E 6 10 66% transport Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 1991 and 2003.
  • 27. Table 7. Number of Aircraft and Missile in ASDF Number Owned Use Type Model comparison Remarks 1991 2003 Combat Fighter F-15J/DJ 143 203 41% (AR) F-4EJ/ (F-4EJK*) 124 (30) 92 (85) -26% (AR) Fighter Bomber F-2A/B 0 40 new (AR) F-1 74 26 -65% Reconnaissance RF-4E/EJ 13 27 207% (AR) Transport Aircraft C-1 27 26 -4% C-130 15 16 6% Transport Helicopter CH-47 10 17 70% Early warning E-2C 8 13 63% Early warning and E-767 0 4 new control Air Refueling Aircraft KC-767 0 0 none (4) Patriot (PAC-3) new Patriot (PAC-2) 24FU SAM Patriot (PAC-1) 12FU NIKE 10FU *F-4EJK: Modified F-4EJ has F-15's Central Computer and F-16A's AI Radar
  • 28. The Range of Ballistic Missiles Nodong Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense Teapodong-1 White Paper. in 2003. Teapodong-2
  • 29. BMD Architecture SPACE SENCER Intercept by SM-3 Detect & Track Intercept by PAC-3 Central Operation Center Ground Radar Ballistic Missile ASDF Patriot MSDF Aegis DDG Source: Defense Agency. Japanese Defense White Paper. in 2003.