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U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead
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U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook: Stronger Growth Ahead

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Montana state and U.S. economic outlook. Presented by Dr. Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. Economic Outlook Seminars 2011.

Montana state and U.S. economic outlook. Presented by Dr. Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. Economic Outlook Seminars 2011.

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  • 1. U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook:Stronger Growth AheadPatrick M. Barkey, DirectorBureau of Business & Economic ResearchThe University of Montana
  • 2. Short‐Term Optimism, Long‐Term ConcernsShort‐Term Long‐Term• Robust growth in  • Stimulus hangover emerging economies • Tax increases ahead• Corporate profits  • Solvency of states strong, spending  • Financial regulation:   awakening did we get it right?• More tax stimulus• Consumer debt  stabilizing
  • 3. Divergent Growth, Divergent Policies Slow growth coming out of recession New tax stimulus, aggressive  U.S. Fed action On the brink of a second financial crisis due to default risks of Greece and other countries Europe Immediate and painful fiscal  contractions underway Fast growth, rising inflation,  appreciating currencies Emerging  Higher interest rates and Economies active currency intervention
  • 4. Manufacturing Growth Since 2000 in Emerging Regions Non‐Japan Asia Central and  Eastern E.U. Latin America Advanced Indices of Industrial Production, 2000 = 100 Source:  CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
  • 5. Growth is Reflected  in Commodity PricesIndex (January 2003 = 100)  Oil Copper Lead Zinc Wheat Source: International Monetary Fund
  • 6. The U.S. Outlook for 2011• Depreciating dollar, faster growth abroad will  boost exports• Temporary cut in payroll taxes, extension of  depreciation incentives gives an extra push• Inflation is a non‐problem• 3 percent growth will finally chip away at  unemployment• Risks to forecast are now more balanced• Optimism fades beyond 2013
  • 7. Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment, Montana and U.S.Index, Nov 2008=100 U.S. Montana
  • 8. Montana Income Tax Withholding12‐Month Totals $ Millions February 1, 2011 $670.3 Million July 1, 2008 $643.4 Million
  • 9. Percent Growth in Wage and Salary Disbursements by Industry Total Nonfarm Construction Manufacturing ‐0.2% ‐5.5% ‐13.1% 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 101.6% 75.7%  84.2%  of 2007 4th of 2007 4th of 2007 4th Quarter Level Quarter Level Quarter Level
  • 10. Percent Growth in Wage and Salary Disbursements by Industry Health Care Public Administration ‐3.3% 4.8% 2009 2010 2009 2010 115.3% 120.4% of 2007 4th of 2007 4th Quarter Level Quarter Level
  • 11. Labor Income and Basic Industries, Montana Prospects Mining, 14% Strong Growth Potential Wood and Paper, 5% Remains Depressed Ag. and Related, 10% Good Prospects Travel, 12% Recovering Other  Strong Growth Potential Manufacturing, 16% Transportation, 12% Recovering Fed. Military, 9% Risks Remain Fed. Civilian, 22% Mild Declines
  • 12. Actual and Projected Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,2008‐2014 Percent Actual Projected ‘01‐’07 ‘10‐’14
  • 13. Montana’s Energy Industries? Mining, 14% Oil and Coal Prod. Wood and Paper, 5% Ag. and Related, 10% Travel, 12% Selected  Refining Manufacturing, 16% Transportation, 12% Pipelines Fed. Military, 9% Fed. Civilian, 22% Other Utilities
  • 14. Coal Mining NAICS 21212009 Employment = 946Number of firms = 7
  • 15. Petroleum RefiningNAICS 324112009 Employment = 1,069Number of firms = 5
  • 16. Drilling Oil and Gas WellsNAICS 213112009 Employment = 333Number of firms = 49
  • 17. Support Activities for Oil and GasNAICS 2131122009 Employment = 1,256Number of firms = 159
  • 18. Colstrip SteamElectrical Station2009 Employment = 578Number of firms = 1
  • 19. Strong Job Growth in Most Sectors Employment (Number of People), 2001‐2009 Support Activities for Oil & Gas Petroleum Refining Coal Mining Drilling Oil & Gas Wells Pipeline Transportation
  • 20. Montana’s Energy Industries
  • 21. Rim Rock Wind Farm, Sunburst MT Construction – 2 Years Operations 300 Workers / Year 22 Workers $110,000 / Year $48,000 / Year
  • 22. Actual and Projected Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,2008‐2014 Percent Actual Projected ‘01‐’07 ‘10‐’14
  • 23. Local Economic Outlook

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