Montana Housing Outlook 2011

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Montana Housing Outlook 2011

  1. 1. HousingOutlook 2011
  2. 2. …horrible…
  3. 3. …horrible… … just plain awful..
  4. 4. …horrible… … just plain awful.. … worst in decades …
  5. 5. …horrible… … just plain awful.. … worst in decades … …miserable…
  6. 6. National Conditions
  7. 7. National ConditionsPeak to Trough: 71% Decline in New Home Sales 27% Decline in Existing Home Sales
  8. 8. National ConditionsPeak to Trough: 71% Decline in New Home Sales 27% Decline in Existing Home SalesGovernment Stimulus: 10% Increase in New Home Sales 7% Increase in Existing Home Sales
  9. 9. National ConditionsPeak to Trough: 71% Decline in New Home Sales 27% Decline in Existing Home SalesGovernment Stimulus: 10% Increase in New Home Sales 7% Increase in Existing Home SalesPost-Stimulus: Sales Declines
  10. 10. National ConditionsCurrently:Housing Starts: 580,000Existing Home Sales: 4.9 MillionMedian Price (Existing): $173,00030 Year Fixed Rate: 4.5%
  11. 11. National Conditions 2.9 Million Foreclosures 51% in CA, AZ, FL, or MI
  12. 12. National Conditions
  13. 13. Home Sales 2010
  14. 14. Home Sales 2010 13,000
  15. 15. Home Sales 2010 13,000 15,000
  16. 16. Home Sales 2010 13,000 15,000 9,000
  17. 17. Home Sales 2010 13,000 15,00033,000 9,000
  18. 18. Home Sales 2010 21,000 13,000 15,00033,000 9,000
  19. 19. Total Price Increase 2000-2010
  20. 20. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 78%
  21. 21. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 78% 63%
  22. 22. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 78% 63% 86%
  23. 23. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 78% 63% 54% 86%
  24. 24. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 75% 78% 63% 54% 86%
  25. 25. Total Price Increase 2000-2010
  26. 26. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 59% 61% 56%
  27. 27. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 59% 61% 56% 40% 60%
  28. 28. Total Price Increase 2000-2010 59% 61% 56% 40% 60% 95% 58%
  29. 29. Total Price Increase 2000-201057% 59% 61% 56% 40% 60% 33% 51% 95% 58%
  30. 30. Total Price Increase 2000-201057% 59% 79% 59% 61% 56% 70% 40% 60% 33% 51% 95% 58%
  31. 31. Total % Price Changes 2000-2010
  32. 32. Total % Price Changes 2000-2010
  33. 33. Total % Price Changes 2000-2010
  34. 34. Reported Price Changes 2010
  35. 35. Reported Price Changes 2010 County Change in Change in Sales Median Price Yellowstone Missoula Gallatin Flathead Cascade Silver Bow
  36. 36. Listing Price 2010County Median Change Listing Y-o-Y PriceYellowstone $199,000 -5%Missoula $250,000 -7%Gallatin $274,000 -14%Flathead $282,000 -11%Cascade $185,000 +10%Silver Bow $139,000 -6%Lewis & Clark $219,000 -5%
  37. 37. Listing Price 2010County Change Change Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Listing SaleYellowstone -5%Missoula -7%Gallatin -14%Flathead -11%Cascade +10%Silver Bow -6%Lewis & Clark -5%
  38. 38. Total Foreclosures: 559 (22%)
  39. 39. Total Foreclosures: 926 (36%)
  40. 40. Total Foreclosures: 1,193 (46%)
  41. 41. Total Foreclosures: 1,456 (56%)
  42. 42. Total Foreclosures: 1,689 (66%)
  43. 43. Total Foreclosures: 1,865 (72%)
  44. 44. Total Foreclosures: 1,994 (77%)
  45. 45. Foreclosures Per 1,000 Homes
  46. 46. County Building Permits 2010 County 2010 Estimate Change From 2009 Cascade Great Falls Flathead Gallatin Bozeman Lewis & Clark Helena Missoula County Missoula Ravalli Yellowstone Billings
  47. 47. County Building Permits 2010 County 2010 Estimate Change From 2009 Cascade 44 Great Falls 59 Flathead 228 Gallatin 136 Bozeman 111 Lewis & Clark 178 Helena 66 Missoula County 41 Missoula 87 Ravalli 70 Yellowstone 128 Billings 162
  48. 48. County Building Permits 2010 County 2010 Estimate Change From 2009 Cascade 44 ‐ 51% Great Falls 59 ‐ 28% Flathead 228 ‐ 36% Gallatin 136 ‐ 34% Bozeman 111 + 38% Lewis & Clark 178 ‐ 35% Helena 66 ‐ 9% Missoula County 41 ‐ 37% Missoula 87 ‐ 35% Ravalli 70 ‐ 41% Yellowstone 128 ‐ 18% Billings 162 ‐ 33%
  49. 49. Local Prospects for 2011 • Buyers Increase Interest •Sellers Interested•Financing Remains a Problem
  50. 50. Questions?

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