Ris Temp Eff
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International Economic Issues Exercise

International Economic Issues Exercise

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Ris Temp Eff Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Effects of Rising Temperature Mirko Luigi Capobianco
  • 2. Climate Change
    • According to Stern, climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food, health, and use of land and the environment.
      • Many severe impacts:
        • Melting glaciers
        • Rising sea levels
        • Declining crop yields
    • Our main propose today, is to show how the consequences of climate change will become disproportionately more damaging with increased warming, giving some practical examples of relationship between rising damages and sectored impacts.
  • 3. Water – The Clausius-Clapeyron relation
    • The Clausius-Clapeyron relation , is a way of characterizing the phase transition between two states of matter, such as solid and liquid.
    • where d P / d T is the slope of the coexistence curve, L is the latent hea t , T is the temperature, and Δ V is the volume change of the phase transition .
    • In meteorology, a specific derivation of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is used to describe dependence of saturated water vapor pressure on temperature.
    • The Clausius-Clapeyron relation plays a crucial role in the current debate on climate change because its solution predicts exponential behavior of saturation water vapor pressure (and, therefore water vapor concentration) as a function of temperature
  • 4. Water – The Clausius-Clapeyron relation
    • According to the Clausius-Claperyron equation the water holding capacity of air increases exponentially with temperature.
    • y = e(x)
  • 5. Water - Consequences
    • By intensifying the water cycle, there will be more rain at high latitudes, less rain in the dry subtropics, and uncertain but probably substantial changes in tropical areas
    • Differences in water availability between regions will become increasingly pronounced.
      • Main Consequences :
          • Floods at high latitude
          • Desertification in other areas
  • 6. Water - Maps
    • The maps above show the difference in Water Distribution in 15 years.
  • 7. Food Sector Inverse parabolic (“hill function”) y = - x2 Agricultural production:
  • 8. Food Sector - Consequences
    • Agricultural crops are already close to critical temperature thresholds
    • The impacts will be strongest across Africa and Western Asia, where yields of the predominant regional crops may fall by 25 – 35%
    • Declining crop yields are likely to leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food.
  • 9. Hurricanes – Property sector
    • Giant heat engines field by condensation of warm water, a necessary condition: sea surface water temperature of at least 26.5 degrees Centigrade
  • 10. Hurricanes – Green House
    • Green house warming is likely to increase the strength of Hurricanes. Clear link between global warming and cyclone intensity. As surface sea level increases the “potential intensity” increases
  • 11. Frequency and Intensity
    • There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of “tropical cyclones” in North America.
    • Clear increase of frequency of hurricanes from 1825 – 2005 period, particularly since 1980(North Atlantic storms)
    • http:// www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat /
    • Both variants (frequency and intensity) appear to be primarily associated with sea surface warming. Economic activity in a given region is a crucial factor.
  • 12. Impacts and Factors
    • Economic impacts of hurricanes determined by several factors : total output , capital intensity of output , location of economic activity , number of storms , intensity of storms + geographical features of the affected area.