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Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare
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Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare

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Presentation of Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen on the topic "Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare" at ISCRAM2013

Presentation of Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen on the topic "Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare" at ISCRAM2013

Published in: Technology, Education
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  • 1. Social Coverage Maps ISCRAM, 2013-05-15 Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen Swedish Defence Research Agency
  • 2. San Francisco 3 July 2011 How can crisis managers handle secondary societal effects of disruptions?
  • 3. Problem and Requirements • Problem • Emergent societal effects of disruptions are difficult to grasp and analyse • Decision makers use pattern recognition and intuition and have little time for reasoning • Decision makers may lack experience of complex societal ramifications of disruptions • Requirements on presentation of societal effects • Simple visualization • Integrated with map-based information • Easy to understand with little training
  • 4. Social Coverage Map (SCM) • Analogous to technical coverage maps (radio, jamming) • Summarizes emergent social effects of disruptions • Can be used for a wide range of map-related disruptions e.g. • Communication outages • Teargas • Pollution • Floodings • Visualizes a wide range of emergent effects e.g. • Physical population movement • Opinions • Emotions • Human relations
  • 5. SCM example
  • 6. SCM Definition • The Perturbation Coverage Map (PCM) visualizes the intensity distribution of the perturbation P(x,y,t). • The Social Response Variable Q(x,y,t) measures a relevant social response to the perturbation. • Q(x,y,t1) depends in general on the history of P(x,y,t) for all times t<t1 . • The Social Coverage Map (SCM) visualizes the intensity distribution of the social response variable Q(x,y,t). • RSCM is the spatial resolution of the SCM.
  • 7. Expected/planned disturbance Social factors of interest Spatial resolution of interest How to generate SCMs Simulation with perturbation Reference simulation Comparison
  • 8. Scenario • Urban environment at peace • Blue force tasked with evacuating VIPs in road convoy • Red force attempts to stop the convoy with flash mobs • Mobile phones essential for organizing protests • Blue force have jamming UAVs • Jamming causes anxiety • Worried people take to the roads • Secondary effects of jamming may cause traffic congestion • Congested roads makes it easier for flash mobs to catch up • What is the optimal jamming policy?
  • 9. POPSIM: Introduction • A prototype targeting the modeling and simulation of human populations in urban environments. • Agent-based simulation. • Implemented in Java using open source libraries only. … and many more!JUNG
  • 10. POPSIM: Infrastructure and Environment • Buildings and roads are fed into the simulator using GIS/Shape files.
  • 11. POPSIM: Cell Phone Coverage • Cell phone coverage is calculated from the location and effect of GSM base-stations and jamming sources
  • 12. POPSIM: Population Synthesizer • The population synthesizer is used to generate synthetic data representing the initial state of the population. • Synthesizer modules: • Demography • Geography • Relationship • Can be used online as well as offline (read/write .pop files). GIS Demography Statistics Demography Synthesizer Synthetic Population Synthetic Population Geography Synthesizer Synthetic Population Sub- SynthesizerSub-Synthesizer Input Population Size PopulationSynthesizerPipeline
  • 13. Scenario-specific behaviour • Adults phones family members intermittently • In case of jamming, call attempts are repeated after five minutes • The caller becomes worried after four failed calls • Worried people will moves towards home • Worried people returns to the normal state and default behaviour if a phone call succeed or family members are found.
  • 14. Planned disturbance: Jamming coverage map Social factors of interest: movement and anxiety Spatial resolution Scenario SCMs Simulation with jamming Reference simulation Comparison
  • 15. Scenario simulation in POPSIM
  • 16. SCM: At time T + 1 hour, Population physical movement caused by jamming
  • 17. SCM: Time T + 2 hours, Population physical movement caused by jamming
  • 18. SCM: Time T + 1 hour, Anxiety caused by the disturbance
  • 19. SCM: Time T + 2 hours, Anxiety caused by the disturbance
  • 20. Discussion • Social Coverage Maps (SCM) may help crisis managers to intuitively understand societal ramifications • Leaders must be trained to understand the relevance of SCMs e.g. • SCMs based on low-accuracy simulations serve as reminders of unpredictable emergent societal effects • SCMs based on high-accuracy simulations can be used for operational planning • Further research • End-user trust • Effects on decision-making • Effects on training • Effects on audits

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