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David Halpern - Nudge
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David Halpern - Nudge

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  • Only NZ and Canada try to manage a similar combination of devolved HRM and budget flexibility. NZ creates performance contracts between ministers and chief executives, while Canada has a much more powerful centre. In other words, they have tougher governance.
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  • Team draws on a wide body of research and uses the MINDSPACE framework to support the work of those making the decisions that impact on people.
  • Team draws on a wide body of research and uses the MINDSPACE framework to support the work of those making the decisions that impact on people.
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David Halpern - Nudge David Halpern - Nudge Presentation Transcript

  • The Hidden Wealth of Nations: applying to policy David Halpern No10 / Cabinet Office Copenhagen 13 th October 2011 UNCLASSIFIED
  • The UK tends to achieve mid-rankings among OECD nations for governance SGI Management Index UNCLASSIFIED
  • Denmark is consistently among the top UNCLASSIFIED
  • UK spends less... The Bertelsmann status index suggests that some countries – including Canada, New Zealand, Norway and the Netherlands, are able to achieve better social results with similar or lower levels of public spending. Australia combines comparable results with much lower spend. Public Spending (as % of GDP) UNCLASSIFIED
  • UK departments enjoy very high levels of budget freedom This chart shows that UK departments have the greatest levels of control over their budgets in the entire OECD. The index captures procedural flexibility to reallocate budget resources at the ministerial level Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
  • UK departments are among the strongest in the OECD – our silos run deep With above average levels of budget and HRM delegation, UK departments are among the strongest in the developed world. Only Canada and New Zealand have similar levels of devolution, and they both have stronger civil service governance mechanisms. Source: OECD Government at a Glance UNCLASSIFIED
  • About the Institute for Government Research Development Advice UNCLASSIFIED
  • A different cut on collaboration ...with our citizens! UNCLASSIFIED
    • “ In the past, the left focused on the state and the right focused on the market. We’re harnessing that space in between – society – the ‘hidden wealth’ of our nation.”
    • David Cameron
    • 23 rd May 2011
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  • Big Society is one of several new emphases in government thinking Behavioural insights Transparency & payment by results Big Society & decentralisation Well-being UNCLASSIFIED
  • By 2008, Britons had become unusually afraid of other people UNCLASSIFIED 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Other Defence / foreign affairs Energy related issues Taxation Housing Protecting the environment The education system Pensions Terrorism Healthcare system Economic situation Rising prices Immigration crime Unemployment % concerned UK EU 15
  • More recently, crime concerns overtaken by economic concerns Jan-May 2011 Economy 58% Unemployment 26% Race/immigration 24% NHS 21% Crime 18% UNCLASSIFIED Halpern 2009, data from MORI Most important issues facing Britain in election years (% public see as key issue) Unemployment 82% in 1983 Inflation 82% in 1974 Trade Unions: 65% in 1979 NHS 49% in 1997 Defence & Terrorism 34% in 2005 Crime : 34% in 2009 Education 42% in 1997 Immigration & race 31% in 2005 Pensions 14% in 1997 Issues below 10% not shown Housing : 25% in 1974 Economy : 59% in 2009 %
  • People greatly overestimate the probability of crime
    • Perceived likelihood of burglary by burglary victimisation, by country , 2005
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  • A question....
    • Generally speaking, do you think other people can be trusted?
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  • Fear more rooted in social trust than crime per se Correlation = .7. Note the Danes have a burglary rate second only to ours UNCLASSIFIED
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  • Social relationships have hard impacts UNCLASSIFIED LGID: Wellbeing - why bother? Meta analysis: comparative odds of decreased mortality Source: Holt-Lundstad et al 2010
  • We generally fail to measure or value this ‘hidden wealth’ UNCLASSIFIED Sleep Medical, education Sport, shopping, travel Home leisure Shelter, nutrition Professional services Other services Manual We spend on 23% of our waking time in paid work down 1hr 15min from 1960’s – with clear evidence of convergence across class
  • Across the world, most dramatic transformations of public services harness hidden wealth Sweden Patient Hotels UNCLASSIFIED Singapore Yellow Ribbon program London 10% vs 79% recidivism
  • The behavioural angle ...nudging in policy UNCLASSIFIED
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  • UNCLASSIFIED 12.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.6% 7.4% 3.9% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% WHO, 2000 UNCLASSIFIED Public health: behavioural factors explain the majority of years of healthy life lost
  • You can change behaviour without changing minds...the science of shortcuts ‘ It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect’ Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate UNCLASSIFIED
  • MINDSPACE UNCLASSIFIED
  • MINDSPACE is being widely applied... UNCLASSIFIED M essenger We are heavily influenced by who communicates information I ncentives Our responses to incentives are shaped by predictable mental shortcuts such as strongly avoiding losses N orms We are strongly influenced by what others do D efaults We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options S alience Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us P riming Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues A ffect Our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions C ommitment We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate acts E go We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
  • UNCLASSIFIED Defaults are the most famous of a growing range of applications
  • The well-being angle Are we making ‘progress’? UNCLASSIFIED
  • ...economic growth is a means to an end. If your goal in politics is to help make a better life for people – which mine is – and if you know, both in your gut and from a huge body of evidence that prosperity alone can’t deliver a better life, then you’ve got to take practical steps to make sure government is properly focused on our quality of life as well as economic growth, and that is what we are trying to do. 25 th November 2010 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
  • Rich nations are happier... UNCLASSIFIED
  • But in the US and UK, growth doesn’t seem to be making us happier – unlike in Denmark UNCLASSIFIED
  • The Easterlin paradox UNCLASSIFIED
  • Understanding Easterlin draws attention to ‘social interaction ’ UNCLASSIFIED
  • The Danish formula UNCLASSIFIED
  • The ONS are measuring
    • ONS is sampling 200,000 Britons to ask:
    • - How satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
    • - How happy did you feel yesterday?
    • - How anxious did you feel yesterday?
    • - To what extent do you feel the things you do in your life
    • are worthwhile?
    • + developing a dashboard of objective/ subjective measures
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  • The data will raise many questions....and may directly affect citizen choices From Whitely et al, 2004 http://www.esrc.ac.uk/esrccontent/news/september04-2.asp UNCLASSIFIED
    • Top 10
    • % 'Very Satisfied' with Life
      • Sevenoaks 37
      • Chester 28
      • South Cambridge 28
      • Teignbridge 27
      • Rutland 27
      • Tonbridge & Malling 25
      • Bristol 25
      • Aberdeen 25
      • Warwick 24
      • Cardiff 24
    • Bottom 10
    • % 'Very Satisfied' with Life
      • Huntingdonshire 9
      • South Derbyshire 10
      • Havering 10
      • Luton 11
      • Kingston upon Hull 11
      • Salford 11
      • East Ayrshire 11
      • Sheffield 12
      • Waltham Forest 12
      • Life Carlisle 12
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  • Implications for policy
    • Early applications:
        • QUALYS
        • Satisfaction with specific services – impact of ‘respect and dignity’
        • Calculations of utility, eg sport, green spaces
    • New applications – from intuition to evidence:
        • Informing life choices – eg HE/FE
        • Valuing opportunities for social interaction
        • Planning policy
        • Volunteering and reciprocity – NCS, complementary currencies
        • Parenting and schooling
        • Refining tax-benefits?
        • Staff surveys
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  • Conclusions UNCLASSIFIED
  • Coalition agreement
    • “ There has been the assumption that central government can only change people’s behaviour through rules and regulations. Our government will be a much smarter one, shunning the bureaucratic levers of the past and finding intelligent ways to encourage support and enable people to make better choices for themselves. ”
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  • ...a new cut on collaboration?
    • Harnessing, and fostering, ‘hidden wealth’ - or Big Society’ – has radical implications for policy
    • Behavioural economics is its practical sister
    • Subjective well-being measures provide a compass for policy that reinforces and guides these agendas
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    • cabinetoffice.gov.uk
    • Instituteforgovernment.org.uk
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