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Land use scenario development Workshop Regional changes of land use for climate change adaptation and mitigation 2 4-25 May 2011, Zamorano By Wilbert van Rooij Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) seconded to Aidenvironment
Environmental science – a complex issue An assessment of the current status is complex, the assessment of the future status even more
What is a scenario? Scenarios are credible , challenging, and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that can be told in both words and numbers. Scenarios are plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces. Scenarios are not forecasts , projections , or predictions .
Have the ability to address complex issues in an integrated manner.
Have the ability to deal with surprises , system changes , alternatives.
Are an excellent tool for communication
Possibilities for participation are large.
Purposes of using (participatory) scenarios
Scenarios are a good tool for an integrated analysis of a complex problem. Scenarios provide in-depth insight in complex societal problems.
Focus on results
Scenarios are a good tool for communication, conflict management, and long-term participation. Scenarios provide an excellent tool for communication.
Focus on process
Types of scenarios A Project goal - exploration vs decision support: I. Inclusion of norms? : descriptive vs normative II. Vantage point: forecasting vs backcasting III. Subject: issue-based, area-based, institution-based IV. Time scale: long term vs short term V. Spatial scale: global/supranational vs national/local B Process design – intuitive vs formal: VI. Data: qualitative vs quantitative VII. Method of data collection: participatory vs desk research VIII. Resources: extensive vs limited IX. Institutional conditions: open vs constrained C Scenario content - complex vs simple: X. Temporal nature: claim vs snapshot XI. Variables: heterogeneous vs homogenous XII. Dynamics: peripheral vs trend XIII. Level of deviation: alternative vs conventional XIV. Level of integration: high vs low
Scenarios, models, and participation Traditional approach Integrated approach
Example scenario for Global assessment 1: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (full Storyline-And-Simulation approach)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being:
Modeled on the IPCC
Providing information requested by:
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD)
Ramsar Convention on Wetlands
Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)
other partners including the private sector and civil society
With the goals of:
stimulating and guiding action
MA Conceptual Framework
Not predictions – scenarios are plausible futures
Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis used in scenario development
Global Orchestration Globally connected society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and education.
Order from Strength Regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.
Adapting Mosaic Regional watershed-scale ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.
TechnoGarden Globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems.
Changes in indirect drivers
In MA Scenarios:
Population projected to grow to 8–10 billion in 2050
Per capita income projected to increase two- to fourfold
Changes in direct drivers Crop Land Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios Forest Area
Changes in direct drivers
Further 10–20% of grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by 2050
Pressures continue to grow in all scenarios
Invasive alien species:
Spread continues to increase
Observed recent impacts of climate changes on ecosystems:
Changes in species distributions
Changes in population sizes
Changes in the timing of reproduction or migration events
Increase in the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks
Many coral reefs have undergone major, although often partially reversible, bleaching episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increased
Changes in direct drivers: Climate Change
Potential future impacts
By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally
Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change
Some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate. As climate change becomes more severe the harmful impacts outweigh the benefits in most regions of the world
Net harmful impact on ecosystem services
The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2 o C above preindustrial levels ( medium certainty). This would require CO 2 stabilization at less than 450 ppm.
Changes in direct drivers: Climate Change
Changes in ecosystem services under MA Scenarios
Demand for food crops is projected to grow by 70–85% by 2050, and water withdrawals by 30-85%
Food security is not achieved by 2050, and child undernutrition would be difficult to eradicate (and is projected to increase in some regions in some MA scenarios)
Globally, the equilibrium number of plant species is projected to be reduced by roughly 10–15% as the result of habitat loss over the period of 1970 to 2050 ( low certainty )
Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios
2 nd example Global assessment: OECD ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK: TRAFFIC LIGHTS
Some air pollutants (lead, CFCs, NOx, SOx)
Forest coverage in OECD regions
Surface water quality
Hazardous waste & toxic emissions from industry
Energy production & use
Forest quality in OECD regions
Motor vehicle & aviation air pollution
Municipal waste gen.
Agricultural pollution & groundwater quality
Biodiversity & tropical forest coverage
Chemicals in the environment
Approach to quantifying scenarios in IMAGE model IMAGE 2 model Global change WaterGAP model World water resources
Quick reference scenario exercise Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Scenario exercise Source: Ecosystems and human well-being: A manual for Assessment Practitioners Neville Ash et all, 2010
Phase 1: How to set up a scenario exercise Understand context, aim of scenario exercise Identify and agree on type of support to be given Agree on expected outcome in terms of process and product Define scope: Budget and time frame Geographical scale and time horizon Type of scenarios and analysis Set up a project team and environment: Establish authorising environment Decide who to involve in the process and when Define role of stakeholders 1 2 3 4 5
Phase 2: How to develop scenarios Identify main concerns and stakeholder questions and understand how past changes have come about Establish scenario development procedure and decide on method( inductive, deductive or incremental Analyse main drivers of change in future Discuss possible trends for each driver Identify the main uncertainties for the future Develop a set of scenario logics Describe scenario assumptions and story lines based on identified drivers and scenario Optional: use models to quantify main trends and assumptions Stage 1 2 3 4 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Phase 3: How to analyze scenarios Determine whether, what and how to quantify. Check: Need and role quantitative information Availability of quantification tools Availability of budget and time Time horizon of analysis Which need to be assessed To what extent models need to be coupled Analyze implications of individual scenarios Optional: Quantify driving forces and impacts Assess ecosystems and human well being implications Optional: Analyze specific response options Analyze across the set of scenarios: Identify reasons for differences across scenarios Identify differing, similar and offsetting trends Optional: Analuze response options in scenarios 2 3 1 Policy options: e.g. climate adaptation and mitigation
Phase 4: How to use and communicate scenarios Map target audience and context conditions: Do a network analysis regarding actors, relationships, information needs and habits Map purpose to context: Check consistency ,credibility, saliency and legitimacy Assess what can reasonably be done with resources Develop outreach and communication strategy Develop clear success criteria Ensure steady high level support and backing Resent scenarios to target audience(s) Discuss implications, response options and lessons learnt Evaluate and monitor outreach action against your success criteria 1 2 3 4 5
Practical steps: Storyline And Simulation approach Narrative storylines Model runs
Practice: What are the scenario archetypes? IPCC SRES A1 GEO-3 Markets First OECD Reference MA Global Orchestration MedAction Big is Beautiful Solidarity/Pro-active Self-interest/Reactive Regional Global IPCC SRES B1 GEO-3 Sustainability First MA Techno Garden MedAction Knowledge is King IPCC SRES A2 GEO-3 Security First MA Order from Strength MedAction Big is Beautiful? IPCC SRES B2 MA Adaptive Mosaic
Practice: What are the scenario archetypes? Global Markets Global Sustainability Continental Barriers Regional Sustainability Solidarity/Pro-active Self-interest/Reactive Regional Global
Example: Characteristics of Global Markets scenario Main drivers Population growth: low increase quality of life Economic development: very rapid Technology development: rapid new inventions, but no magic Environmental attitude: reactive no environmental laws and policies Trade increase (globalisation) Institutional strength policies help economy State of environment very poor Main objective economic growth
Wilbert van Rooij, March 2009
Determine local consequences climate change on main drivers E.g. on Agriculture :
Change of productivity because of floods, drought, salinization ; migration of land use to other areas
extensification vs intensification import of foodcrops?
E.g. on Biodiversity : Habitat change
Increased pressure on natural resources because of migration
Effects of climate change on land use scenario
Link with policy alternatives for climate change adaptation and mitigation + biodiversity conservation
Land use scenario should be as specific as possible on policy options or alternatives for climate adaptation and mitigation and biodiversity conservation.
Example: Possible options in relation to biodiversity conservation:
Extension of protected area system
Conversion to organic type of farming
Investing in intensification of agriculture (new technologies)
Avoiding land abandonment
Sustainable use of natural ecosystems
Link with CLUE-s model
Demand: How much will be the change (in ha) of all major land uses? Spatial policies: New national parks, restricted areas, agricultural development zones Location characteristics: Infrastructure (new roads?) = change in accessibility Soil (soil degradation?) Population (migration because of globalisation?) Etc. Conversion settings Transition possibilities from one land use type to another Link with CLUE-s model
National scenarios – essential characteristics The scenario should be: 1. Consistent with the assumptions of a selected archetype scenario 2. Consistent with current national trends 3. Creative! (do not use archetype as straitjacket) 4. As specific as possible on policy options for conversation 5. Linked with CLUE-s where possible
National scenarios – essential elements Your scenario could have information on: Factors: Sectors: Actors: Economic development Agriculture * Government Population growth Tourism Businesses Consumption pattern Energy NGOs Technology Water Environmental Policies Forestry Scientists Protected area Institutions Urban area State of environment etc. (Biodiversity!) * Share intensive / extensive agr. area
Quantitative differences in land use areas (demand)
Only use trend (e.g. % change between 2000 and 2030)
Divide by perennial/arable crops depending on scenario conditions
Agricultural expansion mostly at cost of nature?
Quantification of land use scenarios essential for model to allocate future land use production of future land use map
Example FAO statistics
Example IMAGE simulation output
Wilbert van Rooij, May 2011 Bridging gap between numeric and geographical data: Baseline scenario 1: Extract numeric data from available resources: A: Global: FAO (website), Global Assessments (MA, OECD, GBO, IPCC) B: National: Development reports (agricultural + forestry department Outlooks (Vietnam: Agenda 21, MDG report, etc) Census data from statistical department Specialists (Socio-Economists. Agronomists, Forestry planners, Environmentalists, etc) 2: Aggregate land use classes So that you can compare spatial and numeric data and for which you have future data 3: Create trends, historical and for planned time horizon 4: Compare geographical areas aggregated land use classes of the land use map with the areas derived from non spatial sources 5: Interpret reasons for difference, adjust numeric data and use relative differences for creation of demand table
Wilbert van Rooij, March 2009 Bridging gap between numeric and geographical data: Baseline scenario + policy option
Determine different trends in land use change because of implementation of selected policy option(s)
Analyze national policies / plans with respect to climate adaptation and mitigation
Example adaptation: Support to farmers who want to change land use type: for example to more drought resistant crop types
Example mitigation: Increasing imports reduces pressure on natural resources
And finally quantify these changes in the demand table for this policy option. Per policy option 1 demand table.
Example scenario: Vietnam
1: Baseline scenario :
Cropland demand: IMAGE OECD baseline scenario + 25% for 2030
- Cropland diversification: extensive (80%) and intensive (20%)
Plantation demand: increment of 500 km 2 /year.
Primary forest assumed to remain constant
2: Biodiversity conservation policy option:
Primary forest: total forest cover (plantation + primary class) in 2030 will reach 40% of country land area
Protected areas (PAs) increase from 7% to 10% of the land:
- existing parks and primary forests above 1000 m
Strict law enforcement (no Land use change inside PA’s)
Interpolation of land use area data Select regression type: liner, logarithmic, polynomial, etc. FRA2005 1990 1995 2000 2010 Prim. for 118 100 93 Sec. for 90 100 105
Scenario information is used for the geographical allocation of future land use and to determine its pressure on biodiversity + + + + Lu model + Globio MSA_lu2020 MSA_infr2020 MSA_frag2020 MSA_nitr2020 MSA_clim2020