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Global electronic-materials-supply-chain

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  • For a Foundry running 110,000 waf / mo in 2016Increased Cost $8.5 Bn / yrTSMC sales in 2011 were 14Bn

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  • 1. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23311Changes Within the Global Electronic MaterialsSupply Chain and Challenges for the FutureSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 2. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23312Linx Consulting1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at theintersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicalsindustry2. We help our clients to succeed through our:• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin filmprocessing industries:• Experience in the global chemicals industry• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs• Global network and capabilities• Advanced modeling capabilities– Semi– LCD– Packaging– PV– Nano Technology– OtherSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 3. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23313Another Below-trend Year for Global Growth-4-20246959697989900010203040506070809101112131415%ChangeForecastLong-term TrendWorld Real GDP GrowthRelative to 2012: slightly weaker in US; mild recession in Eurozone continues;slightly stronger in Asia, with positive spillovers to other emerging economiesSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 4. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23314Q1 2013 Semiconductor Forecast8001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,20006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15SEMI MSIForecastShaded areas indicate US recessionsAnnual Percent Change2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-17.6 39.7 -3.5 -0.1 5.4 9.6 6.5SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 5. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23315Changing Market Drivers• Desktop PC market slowed and has matured• Laptop PC market growing , but at a lower rate• Chipsets for smartphones and tablets are analogous• High growth as penetration increasesThe Growth of MobileSEE BEYOND THE HORIZONSource: Qualcomm, IDC
  • 6. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23316Segment TrendsSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 7. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23317The Major Challenges For ICs3D Packaging450mmGate ArchitectureEUVNew MemorySEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 8. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23318Long Range Device Mix ForecastTotal 300 and 450mmwafers3DPackaging?SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 9. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23319Is Moore’s Law Broken?• Current process technologydiverges from the historiccost per bit curve asmultipatterning and processcomplexity increase.• EUV reduces thisdivergence by reducing lithocomplexity and savingsome patterning cost• Combining EUV with450mm allows the cost perbit to stay on trend.SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 10. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233110Lithography Drivers• The introduction of Immersion 193nmscanners was the last major wavelengthimprovement• Off-axis illumination, phase shift masking,assist features, etc have extendedlithography capability• Self Aligned Double Patterning, multi-layer resists, multi-patterning, and sourcemask optimization have extendedprocess capability significantly• Given current trends EUV may provide asignificant capability increase after 2015• Indications are that NXE 3300Bshipments will commence in 2013 withsources enabling 70 wafers per hour atcustomers in mid-2014Difficult“Easy”SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 11. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233111EUV Wafer Cost Effect• Cost in $/cm2 for a 300mmfoundry logic process in aTaiwan foundry.• First year of implementationEUV is used for most criticallayers. Beginning year 3 olderEUV systems used in “mix andmatch” strategy totallyeliminating all multi-patterning.• In 2016 added cost of lateimplementation could amount$8.5Bn of 110k w/mo.Source: Strategic Cost Model - revision 1109SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 12. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.23311205010015020025030020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029300mm Fabs OnlyR&DOtherMPUFlashDRAMASICR&DOtherMPUFlashDRAMASICFab Requirement300mmR&D = 5k wpmOther = 25k wpmFlash = 100k wpmMPU = 30k wpmDRAM = 60k wpmASIC = 30k wpm450mmR&D = 7.5k wpmOther = 37.5k wpmFlash = 150k wpmMPU = 45k wpmDRAM = 90k wpmASIC = 45k wpmSource: 300 & 450mm Forecast Model 120105010015020025030020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029300mm and 450mmR&DOtherMPUFlashDRAMASICR&DOtherMPUFlashDRAMASICSeries13SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 13. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233113Electronic Materials, 2012020406080100%% total electronic materials% total category ($Bn)SemiPhotomasksCSPSpec. gasesBulk gasesDepositionCMPPR ancillariesPhotoresistWafersLCDOtherLiquid crystalsLMFChemicalsMetalizationResistsGasesSubstratesPackagingGases & ChemsDie attach & underfillEncapsulantsCeramic packagePlastic Subs.Frames & WiresPCBSubstratesPatterningMetalizationChems &GasesSoldersOtherElectrolytesCathodes/anodesSolarWafersMetalsSaw wireSlurryPastesChemicalsGasesEncapsulantsBacksheetsGlass substratesPackagingOtherGasesDep.SubstratesTotal = 122.8Adv BattSeparatorsCompound/LEDSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 14. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233114Electronic Segment DriversDevice Segment Semi FPD PV HBLEDDriver • Memoryrequirements• BOPS• Portableelectronics• Humaninterface• Touch panel• Viewing angle• Environmental• Lower cost / Wp• Environmental• Lower cost per lumenKey technologies • Lithography• MGuFET• Novel Materials• PCRAM /RRAM / CT• IPS• PVA• MVA• Materials• Processes• Designs• Cost• MOCVD for nitride filmgrowth• Phosphors• Encapsulants• Thermal managementMaterials Segment Commodities SpecialtiesDriver • Large volume• Consistency• Cost• Low volume• High service requirements• Proprietary products• not easily substituted• Purchased for performance• Profit margins are higherKey technologies • High volume manufacturing • Proprietary formulations• Synthesis• Applications expertiseSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 15. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233115Materials Intensity by Market$300Bn$Bn Semiconductors has the lowestmaterials intensity, but requiresa high R&D input incomparison to comparableelectronic device segments.Materials requirementsincludes substrates, andpackaging materials.SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 16. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233116Growing Importance of Process MaterialsSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 17. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233117Semiconductor Material Demand• Process complexity is driving highergrowth in materials demand thanthe wafer start growth– The BOM component ofsemiconductor sales willincrease over the next 5 years• Photoresist and Ancillaries willshow segment growth of15%, higher than other majorsegments, and higher than thewafer start growth.• Vapor deposition will continue todisplace physical deposition, drivinggrowth of ALD and CVD materials.SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 18. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233118Industry Structure, 2014010,00020,00030,00040,000>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.045 0.0320.090.065DRAMNANDNORAdv LogicLogicAnalogDiscreteNotes:1. Bottom axis is on a percentage basis2. Size of box is proportional to # wafer starts3. Source: Semico and Linx estimatesThe new “Silicon Valley”Business model changes required / desirable?Materials innovations requiredWSPY, KBroadbandi-line248nm193/193iSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 19. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233119Litho Roadmap - NANDSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 20. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233120300mm ProductionUS Europe S’Pore China TaiwanKorea JapanMemory Foundry LogicWhere are the Materials Suppliers?SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 21. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233121Little Consolidation in ChemicalsHowever, the equipmentproducers have begun a recentround of consolidation with:• Applied Materials acquiringSemitool and Varian• Tokyo Electron acquiringNexx Systems and Oerlikon• Lam Research acquiringNovellusMany indications are that this maybe to align each companies’portfolio for through silicon via(TSV)Herfindahl Index example inCMP slurries. There hasbeen little consolidation inthe supply of electronicchemicals.Consolidation ishappening at the enduser level in semi andLCD• Micron will likelyacquire Elpida• Formation of JapanDisplay – Sony,Toshiba, Hitachi inFPDElectronic Chemicals Fab Equipment Device ProducersSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 22. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233122The Quality Journey• Quality Improvement– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA• 8 to 24– Increased Sensitivity• ppm -> ppb -> ppt• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels– Function specifications becoming more specific• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR• Selective etch rates• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing• Service Improvement– Beyond SPC– Ship to stock qualification• Sub-Supplier Monitoring– Materials component supply analysis– Materials fingerprintingSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 23. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233123Advanced MaterialsLearning/Characterization• Well controlled manufacturingat the supplier leads to productqualification• Changed process at the sub-supplier changes end productperformance• Process audit located thechange, and was rectified atcost of time and productSourcingReactionPurificationPackagingShippingReceivingReactionFormulationPurificationApplication TestQCDistillationShippingQCSupplierSubSupplierSubSupplierPurification• Sub-supplier process mappingduring product development• Beyond CofA materialfingerprinting• Understand and ControlvariationSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 24. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233124FUTURE TRENDS TO WATCHSEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 25. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233125Directed Self Assembly• DSA represents a possible resolutionextension for ArFi:– Segregating Block Co-polymersform reduced pitch alternatingpolymer films with selective etchproperties.– Pattern transfer followstraditional routes.• DSA is being pursued by multiplecompanies.• DSA can be implemented withoptical, e-beam, imprint or EUVexposure.• Defect levels remain high, but havebeen reduced to levels that indicateproduction capability.SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 26. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233126TSV Scenarios – More Than MooreCategory 2010 - 2015 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025DRAMLOGICNANDSource: HMCCMemoryCubeStackedDRAMHybridCubeConsolidateaddress logicon onedeviceSystemCubePackagesystemcomponentsverticallySEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
  • 27. www.linx-consulting.com617.273.8837• 973.698.233127Conclusions• Growth returns in 2013.• A high upside potential remains in specialty materials for Semiconductors– This is offset by significant R&D requirements– HKMG, FinFETs, FDSOI, 3D-NAND and STT-MRAM development programs arealready well advanced, although challenges remain at 22nm and below.– Now is the time to place bets for the next generation architectures.• More Moore has significant implications for both equipment and materials suppliers– 450mm is driven by fab economics, not materials markets. Prepare fordeployment over the next 5 years.– 450mm will probably slow materials market growth.• EUV is needed ASAP to mitigate process complexity and keep wafer cost low.Challenges of source power, and resist performance continue to slow implementation.• Materials demand grows faster than Semiconductor Unit growth due to processcomplexity.– Patterning, CVD and ALD, and CMP all drive materials demand growth.• 3D Packaging and TSV processing is a key area for focus over the next 5 years.SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON