Demographic transition, ageing and migration

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Demographic transition, ageing and migration

  1. 1. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced StudiesDemographic Trends and the Future of Migration in the European Union Philippe Fargues Executive Training on Migration in the EU and its Neighbouhood Florence, 21 January 2013 www.eui.eu/RSCAS 1
  2. 2. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced StudiesThree challenges1. Demographic size of Europe2. Europe’s labour force, production andwelfare3. Low fertility, high immigration andidentity www.eui.eu/RSCAS 2
  3. 3. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig.1: Total population of the European Union 1952-2010 and projection 2010-2050 700 600 EU 500Population (million) 27 MS 400 USA 300 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Authors calculation based on UN Population Data Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 3
  4. 4. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced StudiesTable 1: Population growth of the European Union 1952-2010 In 1952 178Total population (millions) In 2010 498 Enlargement 248Population increase Demography* 72(millions) Total 319* Natural population increase + migration balanceSource: UN Population Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 4
  5. 5. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig.2: Population of the European Union in percentage of world population 1952-205016,0%14,0%12,0%10,0%8,0% "EU"6,0%4,0% 27 MS2,0%0,0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Authors calculation based on UN Population Data Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 5
  6. 6. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig. 3: Population of Europe and Africa in percentage of world population 1900-205025%20% Europe Africa15%10%5% 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: UN Population Data Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 6
  7. 7. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced StudiesTable 2: Expected population gains and losses between 2010 and 2050 by agegroups B Migration continues atFuture migration A Migration stops as of 2010 current levels Scenario 1: No further enlargement of the EUChange 2010-2050 Absolute Relative Absolute Relative 0-20 -22 -27% -8 -10% 20-65 -93 -27% -39 -12%Age group 65+ 57 65% 62 71% Total -58 -11% 15 3% Scenario 2: Entry of Croatia, Iceland, Macedonia and Turkey in the EUChange 2010-2050 Absolute Relative Absolute Relative 0-20 2 3% 16 20% 20-65 -33 -10% 21 6%Age group 65+ 76 88% 81 94% Total 45 9% 118 23%Source: Autors calculation based on EUROSTAT and UN Population Data Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 7
  8. 8. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig.5: Old age dependency ratio 1952-2050 70% 60% 50%Population 65+ / 20-65 27 MS 40% 30% 20% World 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Authors calculation based on UN Population Data Online www.eui.eu/RSCAS 8
  9. 9. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Figure 8: EU Workforce Ageing - No-Migration Scenario 2010- 2030 (Eurostat data) 75.0Po 70.0pu M 65.0 Populationl i aged 60-69a l 60.0t li i Population 55.0o o aged 25-34n n 50.0i 45.0n 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 www.eui.eu/RSCAS 9
  10. 10. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig.6: Age at retirement necessary to maintain old age dependency ratios at 2010 level 80 75Age in years 27 MS 70 65 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Authors calculation based on EUROSTAT projections www.eui.eu/RSCAS 10
  11. 11. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig. 7: Stocks of new migrants required to maintain in 2020 and 2030 the size of the working age population at 2010 levelMillion migrants 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 2020 20.0 2030 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Netherlands Greece Romania Cyprus Denmark Malta Austria Portugal Spain United Kingdom Total EU-27 Slovenia Lithuania Finland Latvia Belgium Hungary Czech Republic Poland Ireland Sweden Italy Estonia Bulgaria Slovakia Germany Luxembourg France www.eui.eu/RSCAS 11
  12. 12. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig; 9: Percentage Non-Western in Western European Populations According to Ethnic Projections 2000-205025 England20 Germany Netherlands15 Norway10 Denmark50 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Source: Coleman, 2006 www.eui.eu/RSCAS 12
  13. 13. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig. 10: Population of the Netherlands by Origin and Age 1st January 2009 90 to 95 80 to 85 70 to 75 60 to 65Age Group 50 to 55 40 to 45 30 to 35 20 to 25 10 to 15 0 to 5 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 Non-western foreign background Dutch background Source: Statistics Netherlands - http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/default.aspx?LA=EN www.eui.eu/RSCAS 13

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