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Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership
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Impact of 1:1 PC Ownership

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  • 1. Impact of 1:1 PC OwnershipUpdate of existing modelsSeptember 2012© Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Limited. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Limited. Confidential and proprietary.
  • 2. The global economy is becoming increasingly digitisedIt is critical that young people in the UK are prepared “Countries that have achieved advanced levels of digitization have realized significant benefits in their economies, their societies, and the functioning of their public sectors” (booz&co Maximising the Impact of digitisation) Educational delivery vehicles are changing beyond recognition It is expected that 90% of all future jobs will require knowledge of ICT (HM Government (2008) „Delivering Digital Inclusion: An Action Plan for Consultation ) 1:1 PC ownership is a key component for driving forward digitisation  Equipping our children to compete in the global economy  Driving equality and social mobility © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 2
  • 3. 1:1 device access is a prerequisite for many of thekey interventions to improve children’s outcomes The Sutton Trust investigated the effectiveness of interventions that improve learning outcomes for children. The majority of their top recommendations require or are greatly enhanced by 1:1 device access. These include  Effective feed-back  Meta cognition and self regulation strategies  Peer tutoring and Peer assisted learning  One-to-One tutoring  Homework  ICT © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 3
  • 4. Despite this a lack of investment in PC initiatives is in danger of not unlocking this potential Overall digital exclusion is on the decline. Penetration of internet access is now 95% in households with children (ONS) with 2/3 children having their own PC (Childwise research) Yet certain groups / types remain digitally excluded and it is anticipated that there is a growth in semi-digitally excluded:  Those who only use SMART devices to connect to the internet, 50% of school children now owning Smartphones (OFCOM)  Those who are competing with other increasingly digitally literate household members The “Shape the Future” initiative is a welcome intervention in this area  Allowing more young people to reach their potential  Promoting social mobility, and  Driving a thriving UK economy © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 4
  • 5. What do previous models tell us This report was commissioned by Microsoft to update existing research on the impact of 1:1 PC ownership given the progress made against digital exclusion There is ample evidence that supports the impact that 1:1 PC ownership has on educational attainment of young people (Britain,Schmitt and Wadsworth 2004) PWC (The Economic Case for Digital Inclusion) and Arnold group have built models that directly translate this educational improvement into increased lifetime earnings However, these models do not reflect on wider societal changes possible with increased digitisation for the economy. These underestimates are potentially very significant. The world has moved on since these models were built – pure digital exclusion has fallen but the impact of being excluded has increased considerably and will impact on the people‟s ability to fully function within the economy. © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 5
  • 6. The existing PWC & Arnold models demonstrateclear benefits for the digitally excluded Our quantitative update focuses on two key pieces of research which look at the impact of eradicating digital exclusion  a bespoke impact model provided by the Arnold group to Microsoft (originally in the US but using a Commonwealth version which has used UK national data)  The PWC work in the Race Online publications (based on work for a similar Home Access Program). In both cases the underlying presumption is that for a certain cadre of person having access to a Home PC means that their educational attainment will improve.  Improvements in GCSE results to some going on to A level some of these going on to University. The models then both assume that those that make these improvements go on to have significantly expanded lifetime earning opportunities, equivalent to those currently seen in members of the population who already perform at that level. The Arnold model goes further and states that the benefits accrued also include reductions in social security payments and crime levels(given more people are in jobs), reduced healthcare costs (due to self-serve information), reductions in cost of provision of other government services due to increasing penetration of e-government. © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 6
  • 7. The models estimate for some people 1:1 PC generates £300k inadditional earnings excluding impact of further digitisation Assumptions Outcomes 4.5% of digitally excluded • This could equate to children wouldgraphicsachieve These go on to are additional lifetime earnings 5 good GCSEs –to not meant discounted of £300,000 for some. additional earnings of £120,000 replace standard text boxes, but to • Over the entire program it equates to around £6,600 offer you more a additional lifetime earnings 20% ofstriking alternative A these would go on to per digitally excluded level and thus accrue in key to emphasise addition person helped. £82,000 structures or messages • UK wide this could amount to £6.6bn in increased lifetime earnings if all 50% of these would go to digitally excluded were University and accrue an included additional £100,000 The Arnold model further builds on this model (giving a similar benefit of £6,600 for Earnings, Tax and Social security savings) with an average saving of Healthcare (£675), e-gov (£135) and prison (£42) per digitally excluded person helped. © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 7
  • 8. There are emerging trends which dramaticallyincrease the importance of 1:1 PCs The traditional models we have updated do not take into account wider trends in the market; in particular, what we call semi-digital exclusion and market dislocations Semi-digital exclusion is a term we have used to apply to those who, whilst technically not digitally excluded are unable to partake fully in the educational benefits that inclusion brings. Furthermore there are two key market dislocations we are currently seeing which dramatically increases the importance of the „Shape the Future‟ scheme.  Ubiquity of connection allowing the economy to fully digitise  The changing face of the labour market that will exclude those without basic ICT skills completely It is impossible to quantify the long term impact of these market dislocations other than to say they are likely to dwarf the individual impact calculated in the models which were based on:  The impact on a rapidly shrinking group of digitally excluded, and  Based on the increase of earnings on current occupation and salary levels © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 8
  • 9. Every device has it’s purpose Despite all the evidence showing that we are becoming more and more connected. We perceive that there are some underlying trends that are currently limiting the educational benefits of connectivity Each device has its purpose and to benefit fully from the emerging educational content young people need access to PC/ Laptops rather than just smartphones.  Evidence from OFCOM noted that broadband penetration of households had overtaken that of PCs. This might suggest that some of the recent reduction in digital exclusion has been fuelled solely by increasing use of smartphones.  50% of young people now having smartphones  In addition PC usage by other generations has rapidly increased over recent years. In households with only one PC we might be seeing a crowding out effect. Whilst there are no hard a fast numbers currently publically available for either of these trends we would assume that PCs delivered under „Shape the Future‟ to a semi excluded household would still have a potentially significant impact on lifetime earnings and in growing the UK economy © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 9
  • 10. Market dislocations suggest that the cost of digitalexclusion is far higher than anticipated The world is changing rapidly. The potential changes that digitisation will have on society and the economy in 20 years time are almost unimaginable. Schemes such as „Shape the Future‟ are needed now to ensure that the UK can compete internationally in the future. In two areas in particular: The changing face of educational delivery.  South Korea, Portugal and certain US states are experimenting with mass digitisation in education. The emerging results are startling and are beginning to impact the OECD PISA rankings.  Open courses, e.g. MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) from top international universities such as Harvard, TED-Ed and O2 Learn are democratising learning and making it accessible to anyone in the world with a PC/Laptop The second of these is the changing face of the jobs market. It is currently estimated that in the near future over 90% of all jobs will require basic IT skills. Any young person unable to gain these skills may never participate fully. Keeping up with these emerging global trends are key for the UK‟s long term competitiveness. The ubiquity of connection provided by this project will ensure that we not only take advantage of these trends but also that all echelons of society benefit. © Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 10
  • 11. © 2009 Experian Limited. All rights reserved.© Experian Limited 2010. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 11

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